Free Money Alert: Hitting 126% Bankroll and Big Action in MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA

The Big Day We’ve Been Waiting For

Yesterday was the day BrownBagBets had been working toward all month. October started slow, with early dips that took us below our starting bankroll, but our methodical approach kicked in, and we turned things around as only we can. With each play, we stayed disciplined, reviewed what was working and what wasn’t, and made adjustments. And, of course, we shared it all with you—from line movement adjustments to re-evaluating over/unders and tracking money flow. Our NHL plays have been strong all month, but this weekend, it was NCAAF that led the way with the highest return, closely followed by NHL.

The result? Drum roll, please…we’re sitting at 126% of our starting bankroll, proving once again the value of sticking to our philosophy and adapting when it matters.

Tonight’s Slate: World Series Game 3, NFL Monday Night Football, NHL, and NBA

As we look to tonight, we have a packed lineup across MLB, NFL, NHL, and our first NBA bet of the season. Here’s what’s on tap:

• MLB World Series Game 3:

  • The Yankees return home to Yankee Stadium for the first time in nearly two weeks, taking on the Dodgers with Clarke Schmidt on the mound against Walker Buehler. With a home crowd advantage and a clear edge in starting pitching, this game is set to be another thrilling chapter in the World Series.

• NFL Monday Night Football:

  • New York Giants (2-5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2): The Steelers are favored by 6 points, with the over/under at 36.5. Pittsburgh enters as a -260 favorite, but New York’s +210 odds to upset could make this an interesting game for underdog hunters. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET.

• NHL:

  • With 10 games on tonight’s NHL docket, we’re ready to dive into the action:

    • Edmonton Oilers at Columbus Blue Jackets: Columbus looks to keep momentum as the upstart team challenges Edmonton.

    • Maple Leafs at Jets: An all-Canadian battle as Toronto visits Winnipeg.

    • Predators at Lightning: Tampa Bay defends home ice against a competitive Nashville team.

    • Sharks at Utah Hockey Club: San Jose heads west to take on the NHL’s newest franchise.

• NBA:

  • Tonight, we’re making our first NBA bet of the season as teams settle into the early-season action:

    • Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat (7:30 p.m. ET): Miami looks to leverage their experience against Detroit’s young squad.

    • Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks (7:30 p.m. ET): The Cavs visit MSG in a competitive early-season matchup.

    • Wizards at Hawks (7:30 p.m. ET): Washington is hunting for their first road win against a high-scoring Atlanta team.

    • Bulls at Grizzlies (8:00 p.m. ET): Memphis takes on Chicago, aiming to build momentum at home.

Focused Strategy and Long-Term Gains

At BrownBagBets, days like yesterday prove that staying disciplined pays off. With World Series Game 3, NFL Monday Night Football, NHL, and NBA all on the table tonight, we’re ready to keep building. Let’s keep the focus, stay disciplined, and close out October with another winning stretch.

Trust the picks, stick to the plan, and let’s make it another great night!

MLB - World Series (Game 3): Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees
Pick: Yankees -1 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Schmidt's Solid Season and Matchup
The pressure is on Clarke Schmidt to deliver a strong performance as the Yankees return home in a must-win situation. Schmidt has been mostly serviceable this season, boasting a 2.85 ERA, but he typically averages around five innings per start. With the Yankees' bullpen ready to back him up, Schmidt will need to execute against a formidable Dodgers lineup. Notably, he has limited notable Dodgers batters like Kiki Hernandez, Teoscar Hernandez, and Shohei Ohtani to a .154 batting average in 13 at-bats, showcasing his potential to contain their offense.

Dodgers Facing a Tough Environment
Walker Buehler, while a talented pitcher, has yet to make an appearance at Yankee Stadium in his career. This unfamiliarity could be a disadvantage for him, especially in such a high-stakes environment. The Yankees, particularly their key hitters like Aaron Judge, need to be more patient at the plate to capitalize on Buehler’s mistakes. Familiarity with the Dodgers’ high-leverage bullpen arms will also play a crucial role, giving the Yankees an edge as they strategize for Game 3.

Historical Context and Betting Trends
Teams returning home down 0-2 in the World Series have historically proven to be a profitable bet, adding to the urgency for the Yankees to secure a victory in front of their home crowd. With the stakes this high, the Yankees are likely to bring their best effort. Additionally, Ohtani's uncertain status due to a shoulder injury could significantly impact the Dodgers’ lineup. If he is unable to play, it would further tilt the odds in favor of the Yankees.

NFL: New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Steelers -5.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Najee Harris Rushing Attempts over 15.5 / Wager: 2%

Steelers' Home Dominance and Giants' Struggles
The New York Giants face a daunting task as they head into Pittsburgh, where the Steelers have won 21 straight Monday Night Football games at home. New York could be missing three cornerbacks for this matchup, which opens the door for a rejuvenated Pittsburgh offense under quarterback Russell Wilson. The Giants have struggled significantly in recent losses to the Bengals and Eagles, prompting discussions about the futures of quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll. With Jones holding a dismal 1-14 record in primetime games, the Steelers are positioned well to take advantage of the Giants' offensive woes.

Pittsburgh's Offensive Momentum
The Steelers have shown they can adapt and thrive under Wilson's leadership, as evidenced by their convincing 37-15 victory over the Jets last week. With Mike Tomlin's defense consistently applying pressure, Jones may find himself in panic mode once again, especially with T.J. Watt leading the charge. The Steelers’ offense looks poised to exploit New York's vulnerabilities, making the -5.5 spread seem like an attractive wager.

Najee Harris's Rushing Potential
Najee Harris is also a key factor in this matchup. The Steelers run the ball at the second-highest rate in the league (53.2%), and they face a Giants defense that allows an NFL-high 5.4 yards per carry. Harris is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games and has shown improvement in his cutting and decision-making. With the offense shifting towards a more run-heavy approach since Wilson's arrival, Harris is expected to see a significant number of carries. In Pittsburgh's five wins, Harris has surpassed 15.5 rushing attempts four times, and with the Steelers likely to control the tempo against a struggling Giants team, we anticipate he will receive ample opportunities to go over this prop.

NHL: Edmonton Oilers at Columbus Blue Jackets
Pick: Blue Jackets +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Blue Jackets' Competitive Edge
The Columbus Blue Jackets have exceeded expectations this season, especially after the summer departure of Johnny Gaudreau. They have proven to be a competitive team under new coach Dean Evason, alternating wins and losses while showing resilience in their performances. Catching the Edmonton Oilers on the second night of a back-to-back situation is an opportunity for Columbus, especially after the Oilers narrowly won 3-2 in overtime against the Detroit Red Wings. The Blue Jackets will look to capitalize on any fatigue from Edmonton.

Recent Performance and Momentum
Columbus demonstrated its ability to compete with solid performances, including a convincing 6-2 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs and a close 4-3 overtime loss to Nashville. Goalie Daniel Tarasov has been impressive, and while Elvis Merzlikins is expected to start tonight, the team has shown it can rally around its goaltending, no matter who is in net. The Blue Jackets are showing signs of cohesion and determination, which bodes well against a tired opponent.

Oilers’ Offensive Struggles
The Oilers have not been firing on all cylinders this season, averaging just 2.3 goals per game. This low scoring output may further hinder their ability to cover the puck line, especially when facing a team like Columbus that has shown it can grind out games. The weariness from the previous night's game could impact Edmonton’s performance, making it difficult for them to put together a strong offensive effort.

NBA: Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Pick: Pistons +8 / Wager: 2%

Pistons' Potential for a Competitive Matchup
Despite starting the season 0-3, the Detroit Pistons have shown signs of improvement, particularly in their recent game against the Boston Celtics, where they kept the score within six points. The addition of veterans like Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Malik Beasley has given the Pistons a boost in outside shooting, which could help open up driving lanes for Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. This newfound space is expected to enhance their offensive efficiency, while Jaden Duren continues to develop as a key contributor.

Miami's Inconsistency as Favorites
The Miami Heat have struggled to find their footing as a favorite, especially at home. In their season opener against the Orlando Magic, they were unable to deliver a strong performance, resulting in an unexpected loss even when favored by a smaller margin. This trend raises questions about their ability to cover a larger spread against a motivated Pistons team looking to turn their season around.

Favorable Matchup for Detroit
Given the Pistons’ added depth and shooting options, they have the potential to stay competitive against a Miami team that has shown vulnerability. With Cunningham and Ivey capable of penetrating the defense and creating opportunities, Detroit could leverage their skills to keep the game within reach. Additionally, the combination of recent performances and the dynamic of both teams suggests that an 8-point spread may be too generous in favor of the Heat.

NBA: Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
Pick: Under 219.5 / Wager: 2%

Defensive Prowess on Display
Both the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs have established themselves as formidable scoring defenses this season. Currently, they rank among the top eight teams in points allowed per game, showcasing their ability to limit opposing offenses effectively. Additionally, both teams are in the top five for opponent field goal percentage, indicating a strong defensive presence that makes it difficult for opponents to find quality shooting opportunities.

Recent Matchup Trends
In their last four meetings, the scoring has remained low, with each game finishing with totals of 215 points or less. This trend suggests that when these two teams face off, the game tends to be a defensive battle, which aligns with their current form and style of play. Given their recent history, a total of 219.5 appears to be a generous line that may not reflect their typical scoring outcomes against each other.

Sharp Money and Line Movement
We’re also seeing a significant amount of sharp money coming in on the under for this matchup, indicating that seasoned bettors are confident in a lower-scoring affair. This sentiment is further supported by reverse line movement, where the betting line shifts in favor of the under despite public sentiment or initial betting activity suggesting otherwise. This type of movement often highlights the insights of professional bettors who anticipate a game that falls well below the projected total.