High-Volume Strategy and NFL Week 8 Action

Building Bankrolls with Volume and a Massive NFL Sunday Slate

Yesterday was all about volume betting—with 16 plays on the books, we racked up a significant number of tier credits with our preferred betting loyalty program. Going 8-8 on the day, we broke even in terms of cash but continued to build value. Now sitting at 112% of our starting bankroll, we’re in a great position as we approach the final days of October and a jam-packed Sunday of sports.

NFL Week 8: Full Slate, Big Favorites, and Strategic Plays

NFL Week 8 brings a rare treat: no bye weeks and no early London or Monday doubleheader games, which means a complete 14-game Sunday slate. Every team is in action, setting us up for a day loaded with options.

While the sheer volume of games is exciting, today’s slate brings a unique twist—ten of the 14 matchups feature a favorite of more than a field goal, with six favorites of at least a touchdown and three by double digits. We’re seeing the season’s trends start to take shape, with some teams separating themselves and others falling further behind.

This setup can be tempting for those who want to go big game hunting. But as we know, sometimes the best approach with big favorites is to find alternative bets that pay out better without taking on a high line. We’re diving into the matchups to find smart, calculated plays that avoid the traps of betting heavy favorites.

What’s Ahead: World Series Break, and All Our Usual Sports in Play

With the World Series on a travel day, Game 3 awaits tomorrow at Yankee Stadium, giving us a brief pause on MLB action. But we’ve got plenty else to focus on today with NFL, NHL, NBA, and college football all in play. It’s a day of opportunities across the board, and we’re here to make the most of it.

Volume, Discipline, and the Long Game

Yesterday’s high-volume approach brought us solid tier credits and kept our bankroll stable—a perfect reminder of why BrownBagBets emphasizes discipline and patience. Today, with a full NFL slate and plenty of other action on deck, we’re sticking to what works: smart plays, controlled risk, and steady growth.

Let’s finish October on a high note. Trust the process, follow the picks, and let’s keep pushing for another profitable month!

NHL: Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers

Pick: Over 6 / Wager: 3%

Trends Pointing to Scoring

Recent matchups involving the Montreal Canadiens have been high-scoring affairs, with five of their last seven games landing on the “over.” The Canadiens’ defensive play has been inconsistent, contributing to their goalies, Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau, facing heavy pressure. Tonight, Primeau takes the crease with a concerning GAA of 4.21 in his three starts, which could pave the way for a shootout scenario.

Flyers Finding Their Offense

The Philadelphia Flyers showed signs of offensive life in their recent outings. After trailing 4-0 against the Capitals, they managed to cut the deficit to 4-3 before conceding late empty-netters. Their momentum carried into Saturday’s wild 7-5 victory over the Wild, indicating that the Flyers have rediscovered their scoring touch. With their recent scoring burst, they pose a real threat to Montreal’s shaky defense.

Goalie Changes and Potential Impact

Philadelphia will likely roll the dice with rookie goalie Aleksei Kolosov, just recalled from the minors and set to make his NHL debut. While the uncertainty of a rookie goalie could present challenges, it also opens the door for a potential high-scoring affair if he struggles to find his footing.

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Pick: Over 45 / Wager: 2%

Jameis Winston’s Impact on the Offense

With Jameis Winston stepping in as the quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, we should expect a game full of offensive fireworks. Winston is known for his high-risk, high-reward style of play, famously throwing 30 touchdowns alongside 30 interceptions in a single season. His propensity for airing it out creates opportunities for scoring, making him a natural friend of the Over.

Ravens Offense Rolling

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens have found their offensive rhythm, consistently putting points on the board. With a dynamic attack featuring Lamar Jackson, they can capitalize on any defensive lapses from the Browns. Speaking of defense, Baltimore’s unit is dealing with injuries, which could further open the door for Cleveland’s scoring potential.

Expecting a High-Scoring Affair

Given Winston’s track record and Baltimore’s offensive prowess, we believe this matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring game. With both teams having the capability to move the ball effectively, taking the total Over feels like a solid play here.

NFL: Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions

Pick: Under 45 / Wager: 3%

Trends Favoring the Under

In non-conference matchups featuring double-digit home favorites during the first ten weeks, two trends stand out: favorites have gone 12-4 ATS since 2019, and the Under has hit at a remarkable 21-7 since 2015. This game appears to be a prime candidate for the Under, as both teams have shown characteristics that lean towards a low-scoring affair.

Titans’ Defensive Strength

The Titans’ defense has performed admirably this season, notably shutting down the Bills in the first half last week. Their ability to limit scoring opportunities will be crucial in keeping this game under the total. Meanwhile, the Titans’ offense has struggled significantly, especially following the recent trade of a key receiver, which could further hinder their scoring potential.

Lions’ Game Plan

For Detroit, coming off a significant divisional game last week and facing another one next week, we anticipate a more conservative approach. Without Jameson Williams, it’s likely the Lions will focus on a ground game strategy to secure a workmanlike victory rather than replicate their explosive performance against the Cowboys. This should contribute to a lower final score.

NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Pick: Colts +6 / Wager: 3%

Texans Missing Key Player

While the Texans secured a victory in the first meeting between these teams, they will be without Nico Collins this time around. Collins had a significant impact in their previous matchup, catching six passes for 117 yards. His absence will force Houston to adjust their offensive strategy, which could level the playing field.

Colts’ Key Returns

The Colts are optimistic about the returns of DeForest Buckner and Jonathan Taylor for this game. Buckner’s presence will bolster the defense, while Taylor’s return adds a dynamic element to the offense. Historically, this matchup has favored close games, with the last time Houston defeated the Colts by more than seven points dating back to 2012.

Historical Context

These division rivals know each other well, which often results in tightly contested games. The Colts have shown consistency this season, with every game being decided by six points or fewer. Last season, they not only defeated Houston by eleven points but also lost to them by just four points, highlighting the close nature of these matchups.

Defensive Edge

With Collins sidelined, the Colts can focus more on stopping the Texans’ run game. Additionally, Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-fewest sacks this season, while Houston ranks 24th in that category. This defensive advantage should help keep the game within reach.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Packers -4 / Wager: 4%

Packers’ Offensive Form

Quarterback Jordan Love is having a standout season, averaging 270.2 passing yards per game and throwing 15 touchdowns. His ability to effectively distribute the ball, particularly to emerging receivers like Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs, has powered the Packers to an average of 26.6 points per game, ranking them sixth in the NFL. Additionally, the balanced offensive attack, featuring Josh Jacobs with an average of 77.1 rushing yards per game, poses a significant threat to Jacksonville’s struggling defense, which ranks 31st against the pass, allowing an alarming 273.9 passing yards per game.

Defensive Strength

The Packers’ defense is holding strong, ranking in the top 10 for points allowed at 20.4 per game. They excel against the pass, effectively limiting opposing quarterbacks’ yardage while leading the league in fumble recoveries and ranking in the top five for interceptions. This defensive pressure could force Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence into costly mistakes, playing directly into Green Bay’s hands.

Jaguars’ Defensive Struggles

Jacksonville’s defense has been underwhelming, allowing an average of 27.7 points per game, placing them near the bottom of the league. Their vulnerabilities against both the pass and run have made them susceptible to big plays, providing an opportunity for the Packers to exploit these weaknesses and put up significant points.

Trends and Motivation

Green Bay is riding a wave of momentum, having won four straight games on the road and covering spreads in those matchups. The Packers perform well as the favorite, while the Jaguars have a historical trend of struggling in Week 8, holding a 2-7 record against the spread as a road underdog. Furthermore, Green Bay has a tendency to start strong, often scoring the first touchdown of the game, which could quickly shift momentum in their favor.

NFL: Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins

Pick: Dolphins -3 / Wager: 3%

Dolphins’ Bounce-Back Potential

Miami’s offense is poised for a resurgence with the anticipated return of Tua Tagovailoa. His ability to effectively connect with playmakers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle significantly enhances the Dolphins’ scoring potential. Tagovailoa has consistently produced strong numbers against NFC opponents, often exceeding 280 passing yards and multiple touchdowns in those matchups. Additionally, Miami’s offense has demonstrated resilience at home, covering the spread in 12 of their last 13 games against teams with losing records.

Arizona’s Defensive Vulnerabilities

Arizona’s defense has struggled throughout the season, allowing an average of 25.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the NFL against the pass. This susceptibility could create a favorable environment for Miami’s high-tempo offense, which excels at exploiting defensive weaknesses. The Cardinals’ inability to stop both the run and pass adds to the concern for their performance in this matchup.

Home-Field Advantage

The Dolphins have historically thrived at home, particularly when favored. They have secured victories in eight of their last 12 home games, and their defense, anchored by standout players like Jordyn Brooks and Calais Campbell, has effectively neutralized pass-heavy offenses. The atmosphere at Hard Rock Stadium provides Miami with one of the best home-field advantages in the league, further enhancing their chances for success.

Key Betting Trends

Miami has consistently covered the spread in home games against teams with losing records. Conversely, Arizona has faced challenges in October, failing to cover the spread in five of their last six games as road underdogs during this month. This trend suggests a continued struggle for the Cardinals, especially against a motivated Dolphins team.

NFL: New York Jets at New England Patriots

Pick: Jets Team Total Over 23.5 / Wager: 2%

Jets’ Offensive Momentum

The Jets are showing signs of a breakthrough, and this matchup against the Patriots provides an excellent opportunity to reach that 24-point mark. After securing a win against New England earlier this season, the Jets are motivated to continue their success against a team they hadn’t defeated in Foxborough since 2006. Their offense has been unlucky in previous games, and this could be the game where everything clicks.

New England’s Struggles

New England is coming off a challenging trip back from London without a bye week. With a rookie quarterback and head coach, they face a tough task against a Jets team that is still fighting for relevance in the playoff race. The Patriots’ inability to establish a run game—ranking dead last in the league—plays into the Jets’ favor. They are unlikely to exploit the Jets’ run defense effectively, which has struggled but is better positioned to contain New England’s offense.

Favorable Matchup for Jets’ Offense

The Jets have been overly reliant on their run game, but facing the Patriots could provide a welcome relief. New England’s defense has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in their run defense, which ranks near the bottom of the league. This could allow the Jets to pivot away from their struggles and generate some offensive momentum. The shift in play-calling with Todd Downing’s increased focus on Breece Hall should allow for more dynamic playmaking.

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Cade Otton Over 44.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 3%

Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 3%

Cade Otton’s Increased Role

With both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined, tight end Cade Otton’s target share is set to increase significantly. He has topped 44.5 receiving yards in three of his last five games, finishing with 44 yards in another. This matchup presents an excellent opportunity for Otton to step up as a primary target in the Buccaneers’ passing game, especially as they look to maintain offensive production without their star receivers.

Bijan Robinson’s Rushing Momentum

Bijan Robinson has hit his stride recently, surpassing 95 rushing yards in each of his last two games against weaker run defenses. While the Buccaneers’ run defense is typically stout, changes in their offensive structure—particularly with the absence of Evans and Godwin—suggest a more grind-it-out approach. This should create a favorable environment for Robinson, who has out-touched Tyler Allgeier 30 to 13 in the first three quarters of their recent games. With the Falcons likely looking to control the pace, expect Robinson to have ample opportunities to exceed 62.5 rushing yards.

Game Flow Considerations

The absence of key offensive weapons for Tampa Bay will likely lead to a slower-paced game, resulting in fewer overall points. As the Buccaneers adjust to life without Evans and Godwin, the focus will shift towards a more balanced attack that allows Robinson to shine. This should help facilitate both Otton’s receiving yardage and Robinson’s rushing total, making them attractive plays in this matchup.

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 78.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 2%

Pick: Zach Moss Under 26.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 3%

Saquon Barkley’s Rushing Success

Saquon Barkley has consistently exceeded 78.5 rushing yards in every game this season except for one, showcasing his importance to the Eagles’ offense. Facing a Cincinnati defense that allows an average of 136 rushing yards per game, Barkley is in an excellent position to exploit this vulnerability. The Bengals have also surrendered the second-most rushing first downs (65) in the league, indicating their struggles against strong running backs. Expect Barkley to be a focal point in the game plan, making this wager a solid choice.

Zach Moss’s Limited Opportunities

Zach Moss has been unable to establish himself as a significant contributor for the Bengals, rushing just six times in each of his past two games and failing to surpass 15 rushing yards in either. His average of only 2.1 yards per carry over the last three games highlights his struggles. Additionally, with Moss primarily serving as the passing-down back while Chase Brown handles the majority of carries, it’s unlikely he’ll receive enough opportunities to exceed 26.5 rushing yards. Given that most running backs who succeeded against the Eagles had at least eight carries, and considering the potential for the Bengals to trail in this matchup, it’s reasonable to expect Moss to remain under this total.

Game Flow Considerations

As the game progresses, if the Eagles establish an early lead, the Bengals may need to lean more heavily on the passing game, limiting Moss’s rushing attempts even further. In contrast, Barkley’s role in the offense should remain robust, making him a prime candidate to surpass his rushing yardage total.

NFL: New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Chargers -7 / Wager: 2%

Chargers’ Offensive Potential

Despite the Chargers’ recent loss to Arizona, where they settled for five field goals, Justin Herbert showcased his ability to produce nearly 350 passing yards even with backup wide receivers. This week, facing a Saints defense riddled with injuries, the Chargers are poised to generate even more offense both on the ground and through the air. With a potentially healthier receiving corps, the Chargers should capitalize on New Orleans’ defensive vulnerabilities.

Saints’ Injury Challenges

While there’s a possibility that Derek Carr returns for the Saints, the overall health of the team is concerning. Their offensive line is in disarray, impacting their ability to protect the quarterback. If Carr is unable to play, rookie Spencer Rattler is likely to start again. Rattler has struggled, averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt and taking 11 sacks in his two games. The Saints have been plagued by injuries, including the loss of cornerback Paulson Adebo, who was critical in their secondary with three interceptions.

Defensive Struggles for the Saints

New Orleans has been struggling defensively, allowing 136 points over the last four games and giving up an alarming 5.9 yards per carry in their last three matchups. This trend plays right into the Chargers’ hands, as they can exploit the Saints’ defensive weaknesses, both through the air and on the ground.

Bounce-Back Opportunity

This game presents a bounce-back opportunity for the Chargers after a frustrating loss. The combination of their offensive potential and the Saints’ struggles makes laying the seven points a reasonable risk. Given the current state of the Saints, the Chargers should be able to win this game by a significant margin.

NFL: Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Kenneth Walker III Over 24.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%

Pick: Under 47 / Wager: 2%

Weather Impact on Scoring

Rain is expected during the game, along with stiff winds, which could significantly impact scoring. With the inclement weather, both offenses are likely to adjust their game plans, focusing more on the ground game rather than airing it out. The Bills have been leaning on running back James Cook, while the Seahawks will look to exploit their ground attack with Kenneth Walker. Additionally, the potential absence of WR DK Metcalf would further discourage Seattle from taking deep shots downfield.

Kenneth Walker’s Recent Form

Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III has been a reliable target out of the backfield, recording at least 24 receiving yards in four consecutive games. He has demonstrated his explosiveness when catching the ball and should find success against a Buffalo defense that has been vulnerable to receiving backs. The Bills currently allow the second-most receiving yards (54.4) to opposing running backs. With starting linebacker Terrel Bernard sidelined, Walker could see even more opportunities in the passing game.

Defensive Adjustments

Seattle’s defense, under head coach Mike Macdonald, has shown improvement in recent weeks after a rough patch. They are likely to continue focusing on a more disciplined approach, which could limit Buffalo’s offensive production. The expected weather conditions will play into the hands of a defense that thrives in tougher environments.

Market Movement and Trends

With the elements in play and the potential absence of key players, the under on the total has strong appeal. The combination of heavy rain, wind, and a shift towards the run game could keep the score lower than expected.

NFL: Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders

Pick: Commanders +3 / Wager: 2%

Commanders’ Resilience and Backup Performance

The line has shifted slightly as the status of Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels remains uncertain. However, anyone who watched backup Marcus Mariota step in last week against the Panthers would feel confident backing the Commanders if he gets the nod on Sunday. Mariota was impressive, completing 18 of 23 passes for 205 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in a dominant 40-7 victory. His performance showcased the depth and capability of Washington’s offense, even in the absence of their starting QB.

Bears’ Winning Streak Context

While the Bears have strung together three consecutive wins, it’s important to note that they have faced teams with significant struggles or injuries, including the Panthers, Jaguars, and Rams. These victories may not fully reflect the Bears’ true strength, as they’ve capitalized on vulnerable opponents. As a result, the Commanders will be eager to exploit any weaknesses exposed by the Bears’ recent competition.

Motivation and Revenge Factor

New head coach Dan Quinn wasn’t with the team last season, but the Commanders are likely motivated by the memory of the 40-20 beatdown they suffered at the hands of the Bears on October 5. Expect Washington to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder, eager to avenge that loss and assert their dominance at home.

NFL: Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos

Pick: Broncos -9.5 / Wager: 4%

Panthers’ Defensive Struggles

Carolina has struggled defensively, allowing 34 or more points in four consecutive games, including a staggering 40-point performance against a Commanders team that lost their starting quarterback, Jayden Daniels, early in the game. The Panthers will be traveling to altitude for their second straight road game, which compounds their challenges. It’s hard to see how they can turn things around, given their recent form.

Broncos’ Improved Performance

The Broncos have had extra rest and continue to show improvement under head coach Sean Payton. Even without elite corner Patrick Surtain, who is dealing with a concussion, the Broncos are positioned well to capitalize on Carolina’s weaknesses. The Panthers have shown they are vulnerable against the blitz, and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is likely to exploit this matchup aggressively.

ATS Trends and Road Performance

The Panthers currently sit at 1-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, with a league-worst cover margin of -13.4. They have also been abysmal on the road, with a 3-10 ATS record since 2023 and an average margin of -10.1. In contrast, the Broncos have already secured victories of 33-10 and 26-7 against better teams from the NFC South.

Historical Context and Covering Margins

Denver has a strong ATS record of 4-2-1 in their last seven games, with a cover margin that ranks among the best in the league. They have managed to cover spreads by 16 or more points in three of their last four wins, showcasing their ability to dominate inferior opponents.

NFL: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Cowboys +4.5 / Wager: 3%

Recent Trends Favoring the Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys have undergone a notable transformation, winning four straight games on the road while struggling at home. This shift indicates a newfound resilience, as they aim to capitalize on their road success against a 49ers team that has dropped its last two home games to the Cardinals and the Chiefs. These recent losses call into question the validity of San Francisco’s early-season wins against the Jets and Patriots, who currently sit at a combined 3-11 record.

Defensive Questions for the 49ers

Although the Cowboys have allowed an average of 28 points per game, most of these struggles occurred at home. The 49ers’ quarterback Brock Purdy has been less than stellar recently, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions over his last two home games. If Dallas can exploit Purdy’s recent inconsistencies, they should be able to keep this game competitive and cover the spread.

Injury Concerns for San Francisco

The line has been moving downward as the 49ers contend with significant injuries on both sides of the ball. Despite their 3-0 record on the road this season, the Cowboys have also been dealing with their own challenges. San Francisco’s point differential has shrunk to +0.3 over their last three games, while Dallas boasts a +8 point differential on the road. With the 49ers likely relying heavily on their run game due to a weakened receiving corps, the Cowboys’ ability to limit rushing yards—allowing only 70.3 yards per game on the road—could be a pivotal factor in this matchup.

Opportunity for Dallas to Regroup

Following a dismal 47-9 loss to the Lions, the Cowboys had the opportunity to regroup during their bye week. The media has labeled them as “soft” for weeks, so we anticipate a spirited performance as they look to prove their worth. With the Cowboys becoming slightly healthier and the 49ers dealing with injuries to key offensive players—such as Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings—Dallas is positioned to compete effectively against a diminished San Francisco squad.