October Surge with World Series, NBA, NHL, and College Football

Capitalizing on October’s Late-Stage Surge

This October has been a journey of fine-tuning, analysis, and consistent gains. After a solid 5-1 night, we saw our bankroll climb by 9%, placing us at 135% of our starting bankroll with just three days left to play. The month began with a slower start, dipping into red at times, but by methodically reviewing our strategies and tightening our approach, we’ve turned October into a winning month. Every adjustment, from rethinking line movement in NFL to honing our NHL plays, has been shared transparently with our community—and it’s paid off.

Tonight’s Slate: MLB World Series, NBA, NHL, and College Football

Tonight’s lineup offers exciting action across MLB, NBA, NHL, and college football, including a potential World Series clincher:

• MLB World Series Game 4:

The Dodgers are on the brink of clinching their second title in five years, having outpaced the Yankees once again in Game 3 with a 4-2 win in New York. With a commanding 3-0 lead, LA aims to close out the series, while the Yankees will fight to extend their season and rally the home crowd at Yankee Stadium.

• NBA Highlights:

A quartet of games rounds out the NBA slate tonight: Nuggets vs. Nets: Denver’s star-studded lineup goes head-to-head with Brooklyn’s new-look squad. Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: Intensity ramps up as Dallas meets Minnesota. Kings vs. Jazz: Sacramento and Utah clash as two teams making their mark in the West. Pelicans vs. Warriors: Golden State hosts New Orleans in a thrilling early-season showdown.

• NHL Action:

With a full set of NHL games, we’re exploring high-value plays. Key matchups include Edmonton taking on a young Columbus team, while Toronto faces Winnipeg in a classic Canadian duel.

• College Football:

Tonight wraps up our Tuesday Conference USA and Sun Belt matchups before weekday MAC games takes over next month. We’re making the most of these final games, looking to lock in strong returns.

Focused on Finishing October Strong

October’s late surge has been about staying adaptable and methodical, with a steady stream of profitable plays across all sports. With a packed night ahead, BrownBagBets remains committed to making calculated moves and taking advantage of opportunities as they arise. Let’s keep up the momentum and make this month’s final stretch our best yet.

MLB - World Series (Game 4): Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees
Pick: Over 8.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Yankees ML / Wager: 2%

Expert Consensus and Game Context
This World Series has been intriguing, featuring a mix of expert opinions as we approach Game 4. With six trusted voices weighing in, there’s a consensus that tonight’s matchup at Yankee Stadium is pivotal, especially with the Dodgers holding a commanding 3-0 series lead. The stakes are high, and the Yankees are desperate to avoid a sweep, drawing parallels to the haunting memories of 1963 when they were swept by the Dodgers.

Pitching Dynamics
Dave Roberts has shown confidence in his pitching depth, opting for bullpen games throughout the playoffs, which has surprisingly worked in his favor. The Dodgers have limited the Yankees to just seven runs in the first three games, showcasing their ability to manage games effectively. For the Yankees, Luis Gil takes the mound, and while New York has won five of his last six starts, they desperately need their bats—especially Aaron Judge—to awaken and support their pitching.

Yankees’ Offense Needs to Step Up
With the Yankees facing elimination, we expect a sense of urgency in their approach. The team has struggled to produce runs, and their postseason performance has been underwhelming, particularly for their key hitters. However, the potential for a breakout game is always present, and they’ll need to maximize every opportunity against a bullpen that has proven effective but is still vulnerable.

Dodgers’ Offensive Efficiency
The Dodgers have not been overpowering at the plate either, as evidenced by their recent scoring trends. They’ve won the last two games by a slim margin of 4-2, indicating a reliance on timely hitting rather than explosive offense. Yet, their ability to create scoring opportunities and capitalize on mistakes remains a threat to the Yankees’ hopes tonight.

Scoring Projections and Final Thoughts
Given the trends and the current state of both offenses, the expectation for this game is a higher-scoring affair. The Yankees are poised to put pressure on the Dodgers’ pitching, while the Dodgers are likely to exploit the Yankees' recent struggles. A final score of around 9-2 in favor of the Dodgers seems plausible, which would certainly push this matchup over the total of 8.5.

NCAAF: Louisiana at Texas State
Pick: Louisiana +4.5 / Wager: 3%

Defensive Edge and Recent Trends
Louisiana’s defense has shown resilience this season, allowing just under 23 points per game. This becomes crucial as they face Texas State’s explosive offense, which thrives particularly at home. Louisiana has a proven track record of keeping games competitive and covering against high-scoring teams, demonstrating an ability to control the pace against aggressive offenses.

Running Game Advantage
The Ragin' Cajuns boast a formidable ground game, spearheaded by running back Dre’lyn Washington. With Texas State's defense struggling to contain the run, Louisiana can leverage this advantage to dictate tempo and keep Texas State's offense sidelined. By effectively utilizing their rushing attack, Louisiana can limit scoring opportunities for the home team, thus enhancing their chances of staying within the spread.

Motivation and History
Historically, Louisiana has dominated this matchup, boasting a perfect 10-0 straight-up record against Texas State in recent years. They excel in closely contested conference games, and their experience in tight Sun Belt matchups can prove invaluable. Given their history and motivation to maintain their dominance, Louisiana will be well-prepared to keep this game competitive.

Value and Model Projections
The current line has jumped above the critical number of 4, which suggests value in backing Louisiana. While our model indicates a slight edge for Texas State by 3, other rankings—such as Massey and Sagarin—show Louisiana positioned higher overall, reflecting their potential to exceed expectations. Additionally, Louisiana has been impressive with only four turnovers this season, showcasing their ability to maintain possession and avoid costly mistakes.

NBA: Denver Nuggets at New York Nets

Pick: Nets +5.5 / Wager: 2%

Nuggets’ Fatigue and Current Form

The Denver Nuggets faced a tough battle last night, needing overtime and a stellar 40-point performance from Nikola Jokic to secure their first win of the season against the Toronto Raptors. Now, they travel back across the border, potentially facing fatigue after a grueling game. Additionally, Jamal Murray has struggled to find his rhythm, shooting just 36% from the floor in the first three games, indicating he may still be recovering from injuries. The absence of key bench players from last season, including Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, further complicates their depth and overall effectiveness.

Nets’ Resilience and Recent Performance

On the other hand, the Brooklyn Nets have shown competitiveness early in the season, highlighted by an impressive victory over the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. Cam Thomas emerged as a standout performer, scoring 32 points and leading the team offensively. The Nets’ combative nature, coupled with their home-court advantage, positions them well to capitalize on any vulnerabilities within the Nuggets’ lineup.

Matchup Considerations

Denver’s struggles, particularly with injuries and player performance, present an opportunity for the Nets to exploit weaknesses. The Nuggets may find it challenging to cover the spread, especially if they continue to rely heavily on Jokic without adequate support from other players.

NHL: Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins

Pick: Over 6 / Wager: 2%

Goalie Matchup Favors Scoring

The Philadelphia Flyers are set to face the Boston Bruins, with Flyers goalie Samuel Ersson struggling this season, posting a 3.56 GAA and an .874 save percentage. Meanwhile, the Bruins are expected to start backup Jonas Korpisalo, who has an even higher GAA of 4.57 and a .850 save percentage across his two starts. This matchup presents a significant opportunity for offensive production as both goalies have shown vulnerabilities, likely leading to plenty of scoring chances.

Recent Scoring Trends for the Flyers

The Flyers have found their scoring touch recently, with their last three games each featuring at least seven total goals. Notably, Philadelphia demonstrated a late-game surge against the Canadiens on Sunday, scoring twice in the final two minutes to boost their offensive confidence. In five of their losses this season, the Flyers have managed to score three or more goals, indicating their ability to put points on the board even in defeat.

Implications of Defensive Play

With both teams’ goalies not performing at their best and the Flyers’ offense gaining momentum, this game is set up for a high-scoring affair. The combination of Philadelphia’s recent scoring ability and Boston’s defensive struggles, particularly with a backup in net, strongly suggests that the total will exceed the six-goal mark.

NHL: Seattle Kraken at Montreal Canadiens

Pick: Canadiens +1 / Wager: 2%

Equal Teams, Home Advantage

The matchup between the Seattle Kraken and Montreal Canadiens is quite balanced, with both teams sitting at 4-4-1. Given this parity, we see significant value in taking the Canadiens +1 at home. This line effectively gives us a safety net, allowing for a potential loss by just a goal while still securing our wager if the game remains close.

Goalie Edge for Montreal

Montreal is expected to start Sam Montembeault, who has a solid 2.94 GAA this season. His performance could be pivotal in keeping the Canadiens competitive against the Kraken. In contrast, the Kraken’s goaltending has been less reliable, and this could tip the scales in favor of Montreal.

Market Value

The Canadiens are offered at the same price as the Kraken’s moneyline, making this a compelling play. The value here lies in backing the home team with the added benefit of a goal cushion. Even if the Kraken were to win decisively, this play is still justified based on the odds and match dynamics.

NHL: Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins

Pick: Wild ML / Wager: 2%

Emotional Return for Fleury

Marc-Andre Fleury is set to make an emotional return to PPG Paints Arena, where he spent 13 seasons with the Penguins and celebrated three Stanley Cup victories. With this being his last appearance in Pittsburgh before retirement, Fleury’s presence in the Wild’s goal adds a significant sentimental value to this matchup. His family will be in attendance, likely providing an extra motivation boost as he seeks to perform well in front of his old fans.

Pittsburgh’s Struggles

The Penguins are currently in a slump, having lost five consecutive games. During this stretch, they have been outscored 22-10, indicating serious issues on both ends of the ice. The recent road trip did not favor Pittsburgh, as they looked outclassed in each game, and returning home after such a trip often leads to a letdown for teams. This “first-night-back” scenario can be particularly challenging for teams still trying to regain their form.

Market Dynamics

Backing the Wild on the moneyline represents a calculated risk given the current sentiment around the Penguins. With Pittsburgh struggling to find their game and Fleury’s emotional narrative in play, the Wild are positioned well to capitalize on the Penguins’ vulnerabilities.

NHL: New York Rangers at Washington Capitals

Pick: Rangers -1.5 @ +165 / Wager: 2%

Rangers’ Strong Goaltending

The Rangers present excellent value on the Puck Line, especially with Igor Shesterkin in net. Shesterkin has been impressive this season, boasting a record of 4-1-1 with a 2.16 GAA and .926 save percentage. His consistency against the Capitals is also noteworthy, as he posted similar numbers last season, allowing just 2.00 goals per game and maintaining a .926 save percentage in three matchups against Washington.

Offensive Firepower

New York has shown a potent offensive capability this season, led by Artemi Panarin, who has already racked up 15 points. Despite going scoreless in his last three games, Panarin is due for a breakout performance, and the Rangers’ scoring depth suggests they can generate plenty of chances against the Capitals.

Capitals’ Recent Performance

While Washington has had a pleasant surprise this season, including a five-game win streak, they faced a setback with a 3-0 shutout loss to Tampa Bay over the weekend. This result raises concerns about their current form, particularly with their offense struggling to find the net against strong defensive teams.