Climbing Back: Winning Saturday Boosts BrownBagBets to 102% Bankroll

A much-needed winning Saturday for BrownBagBets has our bankroll now sitting back above the 100% mark at 102% of where we started. September has certainly been a month of highs and lows as we adapt to how football is unfolding this year, particularly with Vegas’ adjustments and line movements. But rest assured, we are right where we need to be.

Yesterday’s 7-7 day might look even on the surface, but it was a huge win in terms of returns. We hit the big plays we needed, with a 3-1 record in MLB really helping to push us over the top. This is why our proprietary approach to bankroll management and betting strategy works—it’s all about leveraging the key plays to boost our position.

As we look to today, we’ve got our eyes set on a massive EPL clash of titans that could set the tone for the rest of the season. Combine that with a full slate of NFL games and an exciting MLB Sunday, and we’re geared up to close out the weekend strong.

Let’s keep this momentum going and win some cash! 💰

English Premier League: Arsenal at Manchester City

Pick: City ML / Wager: 1%

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals / Wager: 2%

Current Form and Context: Both Manchester City and Arsenal find themselves in challenging stretches, with City facing a series of tough matches, including a recent draw with Inter Milan. Arsenal, despite a win against Tottenham, has been tested physically and is managing injuries to key players, particularly captain Martin Ødegaard. This context sets the stage for a tightly contested match, with both teams likely prioritizing defensive stability.

Historical Trends: Matches between Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta often yield low-scoring outcomes. Last season’s encounters featured minimal goal-scoring opportunities, with both teams showing reluctance to take risks defensively. Given Ødegaard’s absence, Arsenal’s focus will likely shift towards a more cautious approach, further supporting the expectation of fewer goals.

Defensive Strategies: Arsenal has displayed a strong defensive foundation this season, conceding only one goal in five matches. Their previous successes against City highlight their ability to frustrate the opposition, effectively neutralizing threats like Erling Haaland. With a solid backline led by William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães, Arsenal can replicate the blueprint laid down by Inter Milan, emphasizing discipline and counterattacking opportunities.

Offensive Limitations: While Arsenal’s attack has been effective, Ødegaard’s injury is a significant setback, impacting their creative spark. City, meanwhile, has shown some vulnerabilities in breaking down disciplined defenses. With both teams likely to adopt conservative strategies, the likelihood of a low-scoring affair increases, making the Under 2.5 goals a solid play.

NFL: New York Giants at Cleveland Browns

Pick: Browns -6 / Wager: 4%

Offensive Adjustments: With uncertainty at kicker, the Giants may adopt a more aggressive offensive strategy against a tough Browns defense. However, Cleveland excels at creating pressure, making it challenging for teams to maintain a balanced attack. This dynamic could lead to the Giants becoming one-dimensional, benefiting the Browns’ defensive game plan.

Browns’ Breakout Potential: Despite their struggles last week, where they were outgained by 1.3 yards per play, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Browns to break out offensively. The Giants’ defense has shown vulnerability, unable to stop the Commanders from scoring consistently. Deshaun Watson appeared solid in the first half last week, and with improved protection expected from the offensive line, he could thrive against a shaky Giants defense.

Key Player Injuries: The Giants may be without pass rusher Brian Burns, who is questionable with a groin injury. His absence would significantly impact their ability to pressure Watson. Conversely, Cleveland’s left tackle Jedrick Wills is set to make his season debut, which should enhance the protection for Watson and open up the offense.

Defensive Dominance: With Jim Schwartz’s defense expected to dominate, particularly if the Giants can’t force a punt, Cleveland is in a strong position to cover the spread comfortably. Look for the Browns to capitalize on the Giants’ defensive shortcomings and secure a decisive victory.

NFL: Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Bears +2 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Under 42.5 / Wager: 1%

Defensive Strength: The Bears’ defense has picked up where it left off last season, showcasing its ability to contain opponents. After a solid performance in Week 1 that secured a win, they effectively limited a high-powered Texans offense to just one touchdown in Week 2. This defensive prowess will be crucial against a Colts offense that has shown inconsistency, thriving in Week 1 but faltering in Week 2.

Colts’ Offensive Struggles: The Colts have faced difficulties against stronger defenses, and with DeForest Buckner’s absence likely impacting their defensive front, they may struggle to establish a rhythm against the Bears. Chicago’s strong run defense can exploit Indy’s issues, forcing the Colts to become one-dimensional.

Bears’ Offensive Potential: While the Bears’ offense has underperformed thus far, this matchup presents an opportunity for improvement against a Colts defense that has been vulnerable, especially in the run game. With the potential for the Bears to finally find some success, they may be able to keep the game close or even secure a win.

Low-Scoring Projection: Both teams are averaging just 18.5 points per game, indicating a trend toward lower scoring. With strong defenses and questions surrounding both offenses, the under looks promising. The expected struggle for points makes this game lean heavily toward a low-scoring affair.

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Pick: Eagles +3 / Wager: 2%

Overreaction to Saints’ Performance: The Saints have looked impressive, scoring 44 points or more in their last three games, making the current line feel favorable for them. However, this may represent an overreaction, as their recent success is built on a small sample size, and a regression could be on the horizon.

Eagles’ Potential for Improvement: The Eagles’ recent late-game collapse against the Falcons exposed some vulnerabilities, but they were also facing a strong secondary. Despite their struggles, the Eagles have the talent to bounce back. The absence of WR A.J. Brown may have hampered their offense, but with a talented roster, they can find ways to exploit weaknesses in the Saints’ defense.

Historical Context and Trends: Historically, when Derek Carr plays as the favorite, his ATS record (22-37-2) raises concerns about the Saints’ ability to cover. The Eagles’ late-game issues may have dampened confidence, but they have the potential to deliver a strong performance in this matchup, especially with the line moving in their favor.

Value in the Line: Given the Eagles’ recent form and the public’s likely pessimism following their previous game, this line at +3 presents significant value. It suggests a closer contest than anticipated, and with the Eagles’ offensive capabilities, they can capitalize on any Saints’ regression.

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Steelers ML / Wager: 3%

Injury Concerns for the Chargers: Justin Herbert’s ankle injury poses significant challenges for the Chargers. If he is sidelined, the team may rely on either Easton Stick or Taylor Heinicke, neither of whom inspires confidence against a robust defense. Even with Herbert, the Chargers’ ground-oriented approach may struggle against a Steelers defense known for its strength.

Pittsburgh’s Defensive Resilience: The new-look Steel Curtain has proven effective, as evidenced by their ability to limit Bijan Robinson to 3.8 yards per carry in Week 1. This defensive prowess will be tested against a Chargers offense that lacks dynamic wideouts, making it easier for the Steelers to focus on stopping the run. The defense is poised to contain J.K. Dobbins, further tilting the balance in Pittsburgh’s favor.

Home Advantage and Team Motivation: With this being Pittsburgh’s first home game of the season, expect an energized atmosphere that can boost the players’ performance. The Steelers will be motivated to make a strong statement in front of their fans, especially against a team like the Chargers that has struggled to maintain offensive consistency.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans

Pick: Calvin Ridley over 47.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 3%

Pick: Packers +3 / Wager: 3%

Matchup Analysis: The Packers are facing a Titans team struggling with consistency, particularly on offense. Rookie quarterback Will Levis has shown signs of struggle, which could open the door for the Packers to capitalize on their defensive strengths. Green Bay’s ability to control the game on the ground will help keep the score close, allowing their defense to focus on limiting big plays from the Titans.

Calvin Ridley’s Target Share: Ridley has emerged as a primary target for the Titans, leading all wide receivers with a 60.2% air yard share and boasting a 24% target share. This strong involvement in the offense is likely to continue against the Packers, especially as DeAndre Hopkins adjusts to a larger role following his knee injury. Ridley’s ability to exploit favorable matchups makes the over on his receiving yards a solid bet.

Coaching Edge: With Matt LaFleur at the helm, the Packers have shown resilience, especially as underdogs. LaFleur’s record of 23-11 ATS as a dog emphasizes his ability to keep games competitive. If Jordan Love plays, it could further bolster the Packers’ chances. Even if he doesn’t, Malik Willis has shown potential and confidence, particularly after a recent win, adding depth to Tennessee’s offensive strategy.

NFL: 2 Team ML Parlay - Texans ML + Seahawks ML @ +160

Wager: 2%

Dolphins’ Struggles: The Miami Dolphins have been struggling to cover the spread, failing to do so in their last five games. With Tua Tagovailoa sidelined and backup Skylar Thompson stepping in, the Dolphins’ offensive effectiveness is in serious question. The spread remaining tight at only four and a half points raises eyebrows, suggesting an opportunity for a favorable bet against Miami’s diminished capacity to perform.

Seahawks’ Home Advantage: Despite likely missing star running back Kenneth Walker, the Seattle Seahawks will still have Zach Charbonnet ready to fill in. Playing at home provides a significant edge for Seattle, where they can leverage their strong fan support and familiar environment. The Seahawks’ defense can exploit the uncertainty in Miami’s offense, particularly with a backup quarterback.

Vikings’ Offensive Concerns: While the Minnesota Vikings come off an impressive win against the 49ers, their defensive struggles have been evident. They allowed 5.9 yards per play and had trouble stopping the opposition in key moments. With a top-tier offense in the Texans ready to capitalize on these defensive lapses, the expectation is that they can score effectively, especially after being positioned as favorites in the lookahead line.

Market Discrepancies: The lookahead line had the Texans favored by four points. Even after upgrading the Vikings to above average, a spread of Texans -2.5 seems more appropriate. This suggests that the current market may not accurately reflect the Texans’ potential, making their inclusion in the parlay an appealing bet alongside the Seahawks.

NFL: Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Lions -2.5 / Wager: 3%

Lions’ Resilience: After a disappointing loss in Week 2 where Jared Goff struggled with three interceptions, the Lions are poised for a bounce-back performance. With a healthier roster, the Lions are expected to control the trenches, which will allow them to establish a strong rushing attack against the Cardinals’ defense.

Defensive Dominance: The Lions’ defensive front showcased its prowess against the Buccaneers, highlighted by Aidan Hutchinson’s four sacks. With D.J. Reader reinforcing the rush defense, Arizona’s offense may find it challenging to generate consistent production, particularly if they struggle to establish a running game.

Market Expectations: The lookahead line had the Lions favored by -4.5, indicating that the market anticipated a stronger performance from Detroit. Despite an upgrade in ratings for the Cardinals, the current line reflects a favorable opportunity for the Lions, suggesting value in betting on them to cover.

Arizona’s Limitations: While the Cardinals impressed with their victory over the Rams, it’s essential to recognize that this will be a different test against a more complete Lions team. The combination of Detroit’s offensive capabilities and defensive strength positions them well to secure a victory by more than a field goal.

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

Pick: Justice Hill over 2.5 Receptions @ +125 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Justice Hill over 24.5 Yards (Receiving + Rushing) / Wager: 2%

Pick: Ravens ML / Wager: 3%

Pick: Cowboys Team Total Over 23.5 / Wager: 3%

Justice Hill’s Role: Justice Hill has been a reliable target for the Ravens, particularly in road games, hitting over 2.5 receptions in his last six outings. With the Ravens facing offensive line challenges, expect Hill to be used frequently in the short-passing game, especially against a potent Dallas pass rush led by Micah Parsons. In past matchups, backs like Jerome Ford and Alvin Kamara have exploited this weakness, indicating Hill could see significant opportunities.

Game Strategy: The Ravens are likely to utilize a mix of heavy runs from Derrick Henry and quick passes to Hill, especially in high-pressure situations. Hill’s versatility makes him a valuable asset, and his ability to protect the quarterback could keep him on the field for crucial plays. With Lamar Jackson embracing a more horizontal passing game, expect Hill to get enough targets to surpass both his receptions and yards.

Ravens’ Motivation: Baltimore cannot afford to start the season 0-3, and with Jackson’s ability to adapt and thrive under pressure, the Ravens are poised for a strong showing. The combination of Hill’s contributions and Jackson’s dynamic playmaking should keep the Ravens competitive and drive them to a victory against the Cowboys.

Cowboys Offensive Expectations: Despite their defensive struggles, the Cowboys are likely to score at least 24 points against a Ravens defense that has allowed 26+ points in both games this season. Dallas has shown the ability to put up points, and our model projects them at 28, indicating a favorable outlook on their team total. With both offenses aiming to exploit weaknesses, expect a high-scoring contest where each team will push to secure the win.

NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Rams +7.5 / Wager: 2%

Significant Spread in a Divisional Rivalry: The Rams are facing a hefty spread of 7.5 points at home against a division rival, which is notable given the context of their matchup. Despite injuries to key players, this is still a divisional game where teams often play closer than expected. Last year, a similar spread was set in Week 2, highlighting the competitive nature of these matchups.

49ers’ Injury Impact: The 49ers are missing significant offensive weapons, including Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Their absence could hinder the 49ers’ ability to score efficiently, potentially leading to a lower-scoring game. With a less potent offense, San Francisco may struggle to cover the spread.

Rams’ Offensive Potential: Although the Rams have dealt with injuries on their offensive line and at wide receiver, Matthew Stafford’s presence is crucial. Coach Sean McVay is adept at scheming plays that can maximize scoring opportunities, especially at home. The Rams should be able to generate enough offense to keep the game competitive and cover the spread.

Historical Performance: In divisional matchups, teams often rise to the occasion, and the Rams are likely to put forth a strong effort in front of their home crowd. Given the context of the injuries and the rivalry, the Rams are well-positioned to stay within the spread, making this a valuable wager.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros ML / Wager: 4%

Dominance Over the Angels: The Astros have been on a roll against the Angels, winning their last six matchups, each by two runs or more. This recent streak demonstrates Houston’s ability to consistently overpower Los Angeles, making them a strong choice in this matchup.

Struggles of Griffin Canning: Angels starter Griffin Canning has been particularly ineffective on the road, with an 0-10 record and a 5.93 ERA this season. His struggles away from Anaheim raise significant concerns about his ability to contain the Astros’ potent offense, especially in a high-pressure game.

Astros’ Recent Form: Houston is riding high after a commanding 10-4 victory over the Angels, indicating that their bats are heating up at the right time. With Spencer Arrighetti on the mound, who boasts a solid 2.42 ERA over his last five starts, the Astros have a reliable option to lead them to victory, particularly when given offensive support.

Favorable Home Advantage: Playing at Minute Maid Park gives the Astros an additional edge, as they have historically performed well at home. Coupled with the Angels’ current struggles, this matchup sets up favorably for Houston to secure another win and maintain their playoff push.