NFL Week 3 Betting Wins: BrownBagBets Turns the Tide with a 2% Bankroll Increase

BrownBagBets bounced back in a big way yesterday, turning the tide with a 10-8 record and pushing our bankroll up by 2%! In what turned out to be a wild NFL Sunday full of surprises and underdog wins, we proved once again that we can adapt and thrive, even in unpredictable situations. As Vegas continues to adjust to this new NFL season, we’re staying ahead of the curve by analyzing trends, learning from past losses, and refining our strategies for success.

Despite taking losses in two EPL plays and our only MLB pick, the real highlight was our NFL performance, where we went 10-5. This shows that when it matters most, we make the right calls. Our success lies in constantly reassessing, adjusting, and finding value across sports.

At BrownBagBets, we’re not professional handicappers—we’re passionate sports fans who have learned how to beat the game. Our approach is rooted in sharing insights, growing together, and finding value in the process. It’s not just about winning today—it’s about winning consistently, learning from each step, and bringing our community along for the ride.

NFL: Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals / Wager: 3%

Desperation for the Bengals: Cincinnati cannot afford to drop to 0-3, especially after a tough loss to the Chiefs where they outplayed their opponents but fell short. The urgency is palpable, and with Tee Higgins returning to bolster the offense, this game presents an ideal opportunity for a bounce-back performance against a struggling Commanders defense.

Favorable Matchup: The Bengals are set to exploit a Washington defense that has consistently struggled, allowing over 30 points per game since the start of last season. Cincinnati's offense, now at full strength, should thrive against a unit ranked last in success rate against the pass and ineffective on third downs. The Commanders’ defense has been vulnerable, and the Bengals are primed for an offensive explosion.

Burrow’s Strong History After Losses: Joe Burrow has a strong track record after a loss, boasting a 71% cover rate throughout his career in these situations. Historically, the Bengals have performed well against the spread after losing two consecutive games, further supporting the expectation of a dominant performance this week.

Commanders’ Offensive Challenges: While Jayden Daniels showed improvement in Week 2, he faces a formidable challenge against a Bengals defense that has allowed only one explosive play this season. Cincinnati's ability to contain the Commanders' offense will be crucial, especially as Daniels attempts to navigate a methodical game plan without many downfield threats.

NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Under 46.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Jaguars +5.5 / Wager: 2%

Primetime Unders Trend: Primetime unders have been successful this season, going 12-6 with an average total of 43 points. The Jaguars have shown a tendency to stay under, going 5-4 to the under since the start of last season, while the Bills are 6-4 to the under at home in the same timeframe. Last year's matchup resulted in only 45 points, suggesting a similar low-scoring affair.

Offensive Struggles: Jacksonville has struggled offensively, scoring just 30 points this season and averaging only 10 offensive touchdowns in their last six games. Trevor Lawrence has not been efficient, completing barely half his passes and contributing to a trend of unders, with a career record of 32-22 to the under. The Jaguars will likely rely on a run-heavy approach, particularly through Travis Etienne, which aligns with a lower scoring game.

Buffalo's Run-First Identity: Under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills have shifted to a run-first strategy, focusing on long drives that consume clock. This will not only limit possessions but also contribute to a lower game total. Public sentiment appears to favor the over, yet the line has dropped significantly from the opening of 49.5, indicating sharp action on the under.

Value on the Jaguars: Despite their struggles, the Jaguars remain competitive, having been in both of their games due to a solid defense. This line feels like an overreaction to the Jaguars' slow start. Jacksonville's previous success against Buffalo, including a win in London last season where they limited the Bills' rushing attack, adds to the confidence in grabbing the points. With the potential for a closer game, the Jaguars are worth backing at +5.5, and consider buying up to +6 at reasonable odds.

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Cubs' Bullpen Concerns: The Cubs are set to employ a bullpen game, and their relief staff has struggled significantly this season. With limited depth and effectiveness, this strategy could be problematic against a potent Phillies lineup.

Phillies' Motivation: Philadelphia returns home after a disappointing 2-5 road trip and is still in the hunt to clinch the NL East. The urgency to perform well in front of their home crowd adds to the pressure for a strong showing.

Aaron Nola's Bounce-Back Potential: Despite being inconsistent, Aaron Nola is capable of delivering a solid performance when needed. With the stakes high, he is expected to step up and give the Phillies a chance to dominate this matchup.

Favorable Matchup: Given the Cubs' bullpen issues and the Phillies' need for a win, this game sets up well for Philadelphia to secure a comfortable victory. Expect the Phillies to leverage their home advantage and capitalize on the Cubs' pitching struggles.