Saturday’s Best Bets: The BrownBagBets Way

English Premier League: Manchester United at Crystal Palace

Pick: Man U ML @ +140 / Wager: 1%

Current Form: Crystal Palace is still searching for their first win of the season, holding an 0-2-2 record. Their recent back-to-back draws, including an impressive performance against Chelsea, show they can compete but still lack the finishing touch. Meanwhile, Manchester United has shown signs of resurgence with a convincing 3-0 win over Southampton and a dominant 7-0 victory against Barnsley in the EFL Cup.

Key Absences: The departure of Michael Olise to Bayern Munich is a significant blow for Crystal Palace. His playmaking and goal-scoring abilities were pivotal last season, and his absence will likely affect their offensive output throughout the season.

Historical Context: The mental edge from last season’s 4-0 thrashing of Manchester United by Crystal Palace at home may linger, but United is now a team aiming to turn their fortunes around under Erik ten Hag. The recent positive results could instill confidence in their attacking players, including Rashford, Antony, Garnacho, and Eriksen, who all scored in the EFL Cup.

NCAAF: Kansas at West Virginia

Pick: Kansas +2.5 / Wager: 2%

Turnover Concerns: Kansas has been competitive but has struggled with turnovers, which has cost them games. If they can protect the football, their chances of winning increase significantly.

Offensive Strength: The Jayhawks feature a strong running back in Devin Neal, whose ability to gain yardage can open up the passing game. This offensive versatility gives Kansas an edge over West Virginia.

Defensive Capability: Kansas boasts two standout corners, Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant, who can disrupt West Virginia’s passing attack. This defensive strength should help limit the Mountaineers’ scoring opportunities.

Bounce Back Opportunity: Coming off a loss, Kansas is motivated to secure a bounce-back victory. Their talent and potential for improvement make them a solid choice to cover the spread on the road.

NCAAF: 2 Team ML Parlay - Army ML + Virginia Tech ML / Wager: 1%

Army’s Offensive Threat: Army’s offense, led by QB Bryson Daily, presents a multifaceted challenge for defenses this season. The combination of a dynamic option offense and the threat of the pass makes it difficult for opponents to prepare. I believe Rice will struggle to contain Army in Michie Stadium, where the Black Knights thrive.

Virginia Tech’s Momentum: After a rough start against Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech has bounced back strongly. Running back Bhayshul Tuten has been a standout, rushing for over 120 yards in consecutive games and scoring three touchdowns. Tech’s recent form suggests they are regaining their competitive edge, especially after winning convincingly against Rutgers last season.

Historical Performance: Virginia Tech’s strong history against Rutgers, with a recent win of 35-16, adds confidence to their chances. With Rutgers facing their first true road challenge after easy games against Howard and Akron, they may find themselves outmatched. Our model predicts a Hokies victory by at least five points, reinforcing the parlay’s value.

NCAAF: Tulane at University of Louisiana

Pick: Louisiana ML @ +115 / Wager: 1%

Home Field Advantage: Louisiana has not lost a home non-conference game since 2016, demonstrating a strong track record of success in familiar surroundings. With an unbeaten record and two weeks to prepare for this matchup, they are positioned to capitalize on their home field.

Recent Performance: The Ragin’ Cajuns have outscored their first two opponents a combined 74-20, showcasing their offensive capabilities, even against lower-tier teams. This momentum can translate into confidence and execution against Tulane.

Physical Edge: Louisiana boasts an impressive offensive line, averaging 325.4 pounds, which is the largest in the Sun Belt Conference. This physical advantage may overwhelm a Tulane team that could be struggling with the aftermath of back-to-back losses to ranked opponents, leading to potential fatigue and vulnerability.

NCAAF: University of Southern Miss at Jacksonville State

Pick: Under 61 / Wager: 2%

Offensive Struggles: Southern Miss has faced two FBS opponents this season, managing only 24 points across those games. This suggests significant challenges in their offensive efficiency, which is likely to continue against Jacksonville State.

Quarterback Concerns: Both teams are dealing with banged-up quarterbacks, which can hinder offensive production and limit scoring opportunities, further contributing to a lower total.

Defensive Strengths: Jacksonville State’s defense was a strong point in 2023, though it hasn’t shown its best form in 2024. However, the strength of their opponents could be influencing this, and they may regain their form in this matchup.

Game Strategy: Jacksonville State’s offensive strategy under Rich Rodriguez is expected to focus on a run-heavy approach to control the clock. This will not only limit possessions but also keep the score down.

Model Projections: Various models indicate that this game may not reach 60 points, with our projections estimating around 49 total points. A conservative offensive strategy combined with existing struggles makes the under a solid play.

NCAAF: Arkansas at Auburn

Pick: Auburn -2.5 / Wager: 2%

Auburn’s Quarterback Change: With the decision to bench Payton Thorne in favor of redshirt freshman Hank Brown, Auburn has found a spark. Brown ranks third nationally in quarterback rating, showcasing his potential to lead the team effectively. This shift could provide the stability the Tigers need as they look to secure a bowl eligibility.

Injury Updates: Auburn is set to regain key players, including wide receiver Cam Coleman and right tackle Izavion Miller. Their return bolsters an offense that is already showing signs of improvement, which will be crucial against a struggling Arkansas defense.

Historical Context: Auburn’s recent performance against Arkansas, including a decisive win last season, adds to the confidence heading into this matchup. The Hogs have struggled against the spread, going 2-4 in their last six games, which suggests they may have difficulty keeping pace with a motivated Auburn team.

Bowl Implications: The pressure is on for Auburn to secure this win as they navigate a tough SEC schedule. A victory here is essential for maintaining their path to bowl eligibility, and the home-field advantage at Jordan-Hare Stadium could play a pivotal role in their success.

NCAAF: Arizona State at Texas Tech

Pick: Texas Tech ML / Wager: 1%

Arizona State’s Defensive Struggles: While Kenny Dillingham has made a positive impact early in his tenure, Arizona State faces significant challenges, particularly on the defensive side. Their inconsistency on defense has raised concerns, especially as they prepare for their first Big 12 game. The Sun Devils were predicted to finish at the bottom of the conference for good reason.

Texas Tech’s Offensive Firepower: Coming off an impressive performance, Texas Tech scored 66 points and accumulated 586 yards against a solid North Texas team. The return of top running back Tahj Brooks has revitalized their offense, which has been nearly unstoppable when he’s in the lineup. QB Behren Morton leads the Big 12 and ranks second in the FBS with 10 touchdown passes, showcasing his ability to exploit defenses.

Home Advantage: Texas Tech boasts a strong home record under coach Joey McGuire, sitting at 12-3 in Lubbock. The atmosphere at Jones AT&T Stadium can be daunting for visiting teams, providing an additional edge for the Red Raiders as they look to maintain their momentum.

NCAAF: Utah at Oklahoma State

Pick: Oklahoma State +2.5 / Wager: 2%

Oklahoma State’s Dominance Against Tulsa: Last weekend’s performance against Tulsa showcased Oklahoma State’s potential, as they dominated the game from start to finish. This marked a turning point for a team that has historically struggled in similar matchups, demonstrating their capability to compete at a high level.

Experience at Quarterback: Both teams feature experienced quarterbacks, but Oklahoma State’s offense is poised to shine. The full offensive arsenal will be on display, allowing the Cowboys to effectively outgun the Utes. Cam Rising’s track record on the road is a concern, as he holds a 5-4 record as a starter away from home.

Ollie Gordon’s Impact: Since 2023, Oklahoma State has shown an impressive trend: they are 12-0 when star running back Ollie Gordon scores. Expect him to play a pivotal role in this matchup, likely receiving over 30 carries as he leads the ground attack. His ability to find the end zone will be crucial for the Cowboys’ success.

Projected Outcome: With the combination of their recent form, home-field advantage, and Gordon’s contributions, Oklahoma State is positioned for a narrow victory. The expected score is Oklahoma State 31, Utah 27, indicating confidence in the Cowboys to secure the upset at home.

NCAAF: Iowa at Minnesota

Pick: Iowa ML / Wager: 2%

Historical Context: Iowa has a strong track record against Minnesota, having dominated the series with eight consecutive wins before last year’s narrow 12-10 loss. This historical edge provides a psychological advantage as they seek to reclaim their dominance.

Quarterback Performance: Cade McNamara has significantly improved Iowa’s offensive capabilities, completing 82% of his passes in his last game. This level of efficiency is crucial in a rivalry game, as it allows Iowa to maintain possession and score consistently.

Offensive Momentum: The Hawkeyes have consistently gone over the total in all three of their games this season, indicating a more potent offense compared to previous years. Minnesota, despite a strong defensive showing in their last two games, is likely to face challenges against Iowa’s improved passing attack.

NCAAF: Miami (FL) at USF

Pick: Miami -16.5 / Wager: 3%

Dominant Track Record: Miami’s recent performances indicate they are poised for a significant victory, having the potential to replicate the success Alabama had against South Florida just weeks ago. With a strong offense and improving defense, Miami is well-positioned to dominate this matchup.

Quarterback Performance: Cam Ward’s impressive stats, with 11 touchdowns and only one interception, showcase his capability to lead the USF offense. However, despite his strong performance, Miami’s defense is expected to create challenges that Ward hasn’t faced yet this season.

Momentum Shift: Although USF has won four of their last five games, they have yet to encounter a team with Miami’s talent and depth this season. The Hurricanes’ combination of skill and experience makes them a formidable opponent that South Florida may struggle to contain.

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Pick: Mets ML / Wager: 2%

Recent Performance: After a strong run, winning 16 of their last 20 games, the Mets can be forgiven for last night’s 12-2 loss to the Phillies. Fortunately, that loss didn’t impact their NL wild card position since the Braves also lost, allowing New York to maintain a 2-game lead over Atlanta for the final spot.

Motivational Factors: The Mets catch the Phillies at a potentially vulnerable moment. Having just secured a playoff berth, Philadelphia might come into this game flat after last night’s rout. The situation could favor a motivated Mets squad eager to bounce back.

Pitching Matchup: Starter Ranger Suarez has shown vulnerability recently, allowing 7 runs and 16 hits in his last two starts, resulting in a 6.10 ERA. Conversely, Sean Manaea of the Mets has been in excellent form, posting a 1.98 ERA across his four September starts. The Mets have also won all seven of his recent outings, highlighting their confidence and effectiveness when he’s on the mound.

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Royals ML / Wager: 3%

Motivation and Context: As the season winds down, the Royals are fighting for their playoff lives, making this matchup critical for them. In contrast, the Giants have little to play for, having fallen out of contention. This disparity in motivation can often lead to a significant performance gap.

Starting Pitching Advantage: Kansas City’s Brady Singer is on the mound, boasting an impressive 2.90 ERA at home. His strong performance provides the Royals with a clear edge in this matchup. Despite the Royals’ recent struggles at the plate, Singer’s ability to control the game from the mound can help secure a victory.

Lineup Adjustments: While the Royals have struggled offensively during their five-game skid, there’s potential for a turnaround. Manager Matt Quatraro may need to shake up the lineup to ignite some offense, and the urgency of the situation could spur the team into action.

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

Pick: Mariners ML @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Current Form and Context: Seattle is making a strong push in the AL playoff race, winning 10 of their last 15 games. They remain in contention for a wild card spot, currently just two games behind the Twins. Their recent form includes four consecutive victories over the Rangers, culminating in an 8-2 win last night, highlighting their offensive prowess and momentum.

Pitching Matchup: Emerson Hancock takes the mound for Seattle after a successful outing against Texas last week, where he went five innings in a 5-4 win. His recent recall and performance suggest he’s ready to contribute effectively. Conversely, Max Scherzer’s situation is more uncertain; having just returned from injury, he may be limited to around four innings and on a strict pitch count, which could hinder the Rangers’ effectiveness.

Key Players: Julio Rodriguez has been on fire this September, boasting a .321 batting average and contributing significantly to Seattle’s offense, including two home runs in the recent game against Texas. His continued production will be crucial in maintaining the Mariners’ scoring.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros -1.5 / Wager: 4%

Recent Performance: The Astros have found a winning formula against the Angels, securing five consecutive victories in their recent matchups, all by two runs or more. This trend underscores their dominance, making the Run Line a solid option as they continue to capitalize on their success against Los Angeles.

Pitching Matchup: Reid Detmers, who showed some promise upon his recall, faltered in his last outing against the White Sox, giving up seven runs in just over five innings. This raises concerns about his ability to handle the Astros’ potent lineup. In contrast, Roniel Blanco has been exceptional for Houston, not allowing a run in 13 innings this September, including a stellar six-inning shutout performance against the Angels last Sunday.

Home Advantage: Playing at Minute Maid Park provides the Astros with a significant edge, especially given their recent form and the added pressure on the Angels as they struggle to find consistency. With Houston pushing for a strong finish to the season, they are unlikely to let this opportunity slip.