Another Winning Night and a Massive Weekend Ahead

Another Winning Night, and We’re Still Rolling

Another winning night in the books, and honestly, We’ve lost track of how many nights in a row we’ve come out on top—do you know? Last night’s 4-2 record across all plays was yet another reminder of why we stick to our strategy. Hitting both of our higher wager picks? That’s the cherry on top of another successful evening.

Our bankrolls have now grown to 127% for October, putting us in an excellent position as we head into a massive weekend of sports betting. When we say we’re riding high, we mean it—this is exactly what BrownBagBets is all about: discipline, smart plays, and sustained success over the long term.

Today’s Action: College Football, EPL, ALCS Game 5, and NHL

With the weekend upon us, there’s no shortage of opportunities, and we’re locked in on several key matchups across the board:

• College Football:

  • A full slate of games today, and we’ve identified several plays that fit right into our strategy. Expect a day of smart, calculated picks as we take advantage of matchups and value in the lines.

• EPL Returns:

  • After a short break, the English Premier League is back, and we’ll be diving into some exciting fixtures. Keep an eye on this space as we line up the plays that stand out the most.

• ALCS Game 5:

  • The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians square off in a crucial Game 5 of the ALCS. With a trip to the World Series on the line, this is a game we won’t be sitting out. We’ve analyzed the matchups, and we’re ready to roll with our top pick.

• NHL Action:

  • Our NHL betting has been a key part of this hot streak, and we’re not stopping now. Another night of hockey means more opportunities to capitalize on the value plays that have been working for us.

Let’s Keep Riding This Streak

We’ve been on a tear, and the best part is, we’re only just getting started. Our methodical approach is what keeps us winning night after night, and we’ve got a full weekend ahead to continue stacking up the wins. With college football, EPL, MLB playoffs, and NHL all on the table, the opportunities are everywhere—and we’re ready to take them.

Let’s keep the momentum going and solidify another profitable month. Stick with the plan, trust the picks, and let’s keep riding this wave of success. Another winning weekend is right in front of us!

MLB - American League Championship Series (Game 5)

Pick: Over 7.5 @ +100 / Wager: 4%

Pitching Troubles Ahead:

Suddenly, pitching depth is becoming a rare commodity in this ALCS, as evidenced by the 26 runs scored across Games 3 and 4. The Yankees have unleashed their power bats in Cleveland, with Giancarlo Stanton (twice), Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto all going deep in the last two contests. Expect more fireworks as the series heads to a decisive Game 5.

Guardians Offense on the Rise:

While the Yankees have been flexing their muscles, the Guardians have also made their mark by tagging the New York bullpen, which is likely to see even more action tonight. Cleveland is now in a must-win scenario, with Stephen Vogt facing a do-or-die situation. However, questions linger about the effectiveness of starter Tanner Bibee. In his last outing, Bibee was chased after just two innings, allowing three runs on five hits in a Game 2 loss.

Expect High Scoring:

With both lineups in strong form and the pressure mounting, expect plenty of runs in this pivotal game. The Yankees’ power and the Guardians’ resurgence at the plate make the over a compelling play.

NCAAF: Arizona State at Cincinnati

Pick: Cincinnati -4.5 / Wager: 3%

Quarterback Situation for Arizona State:

The spread for this matchup has shifted from around a field goal to Cincinnati -4.5 following the news that injured QB Sam Leavitt will be replaced by Jeff Sims. While Sims brings experience from his time at Georgia Tech and Nebraska, he is noticeably rusty, having thrown only two passes this season. This change in quarterback is a considerable downgrade for the Sun Devils.

Body Clock Factor:

Another key element favoring Cincinnati is the noon kickoff time, which will feel like 9 a.m. for the Arizona State players. Teams playing in similar situations this season have struggled, and this is Cincinnati’s fourth consecutive noon start, giving them a significant advantage in routine.

Cincinnati’s Passing Attack:

Cincinnati boasts a superior passing attack, which further tilts the scales in their favor. Arizona State’s defense may struggle to contain the Bearcats’ offensive firepower, especially with Sims likely to be more prone to turnovers under pressure. The Bearcats have shown more consistency this season, and this matchup presents a favorable opportunity for them.

NCAAF: Miami (FL) at Louisville

Pick: Louisville ML @ +160 / Wager: 2%

Backing the Cardinals:

We’re going all-in on Louisville’s money line at +160, complementing our strong ATS play recommendation. Miami has been living dangerously in their last two games, and this week, those close calls are likely to catch up with them.

Louisville’s Necessity:

The Cardinals, once a top-15 team, are in dire need of a victory to remain competitive in the ACC race. Their recent form at home against ranked opponents has been impressive, with Louisville winning their last three matchups in that scenario. This trend bodes well for their chances against a struggling Miami team.

Game Prediction:

We’re confident that the Cardinals will rise to the occasion on Saturday, projecting a close contest with Louisville coming out on top. Final score prediction: Louisville 35, Miami 30. Expect a hard-fought battle, but ultimately, the home team is primed for success.

NCAAF: Auburn at Missouri

Pick: Missouri -4.5 / Wager: 2%

The Line:

This line has a peculiar feel to it, especially considering Auburn’s ongoing struggles with turnovers and Missouri’s solid defensive capabilities. Every simulation we’ve run in our minds has Missouri winning by at least a touchdown.

Mizzou’s Offensive Momentum:

In this matchup of Tigers, Missouri has demonstrated impressive scoring ability, racking up 30 or more points in their last nine games against unranked opponents. Additionally, they’ve gone 7-2 ATS during that stretch, showing a consistent ability to cover the spread.

History on Missouri’s Side:

With all signs pointing towards a repeat of their successful past performances, we expect Missouri to assert their dominance once again. Lock in Missouri -4.5 for a confident play in this game.

NCAAF: Nebraska at Indiana

Pick: Nebraska +6.5 / Wager: 2%

A Battle of Rest and Strength:

Both Nebraska and Indiana come into this matchup well-rested after a bye week, with comparable strength of schedules (Nebraska at No. 73 vs. Indiana at No. 71). This game presents a classic clash of offense versus defense, where Indiana’s high-powered attack will be put to the test against Nebraska’s formidable defense, which has allowed just 13.0 points per game.

Offensive Challenges:

While Indiana’s offense has been dynamic, the bye week could be more challenging for them, as high-scoring teams often need rhythm to maintain their momentum. Nebraska possesses the defensive talent to effectively slow down Indiana’s scoring opportunities.

Early Start and Underdog Advantage:

The early start time will aid the underdog Cornhuskers in staying competitive and within the spread. While Indiana’s coach Curt Cignetti has garnered praise for his achievements, it’s important to note that no team lacking elite talent can navigate a full season unscathed. Nebraska is easily the most talented opponent the Hoosiers have faced thus far.

Concerns in the Secondary:

Additionally, questions loom regarding how Indiana’s secondary will handle the physicality and size of Nebraska’s receiving corps. With these factors in play, backing Nebraska at +6.5 offers significant value in this matchup.

NCAAF: South Carolina at Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma ML / Wager: 2%

A Challenging Road for South Carolina:
Last week, South Carolina came agonizingly close to handing Alabama a surprising defeat, narrowly losing 27-25 as a three-touchdown underdog. However, can the Gamecocks rebound and take down another quality opponent on the road this week? We think not, and we’re betting against that outcome.

Sooners' Defensive Strength:
Oklahoma has faced a dip in their typically high-powered offensive output, yet they remain solid on the defensive side of the ball. Despite the 34-3 setback against Texas last week, the defense held its own but was often put in tough positions due to the offense’s struggles. This week is pivotal for the Sooners, not only for their pride but also for their bowl eligibility.

Focused Effort Required:
Given the stakes, we expect Oklahoma to deliver a focused effort that leads to a much-needed victory. With the combination of South Carolina’s inconsistency and Oklahoma’s need to bounce back, backing the Sooners on the money line is the play here.

NCAAF: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan
Pick: Eastern Michigan ML / Wager: 3%

Central Michigan's Struggles:
Central Michigan is facing significant challenges, having lost starting quarterback Joe Labas to a season-ending injury in last week’s defeat against Ohio. Freshman Tyler Jefferson, who has only thrown 26 passes at the NCAA level, will step in as the primary signal-caller for this rivalry matchup. The Chippewas have struggled to find their footing, having fallen behind early in every game since their season-opening 66-10 blowout of Central Connecticut State.

Homecoming Advantage for Eastern Michigan:
It’s homecoming in Ypsilanti, and the atmosphere will be electric. Eastern Michigan has been strong at home, winning their last three homecoming games and eight of their last ten overall at Rynearson Stadium. This sets the stage for a formidable home-field advantage.

Turnover Margin and Team Dynamics:
Eastern Michigan ranks 15th nationally in turnover margin at +1.00 per game and boasts an impressive sixth place for turnovers lost, having given the ball away only three times all season. This discipline can be a game-changer against a Central Michigan team trying to find its rhythm with a new quarterback.

NCAAF: Notre Dame at Georgia Tech
Pick: Notre Dame -13.5 / Wager: 3%

Injury Situations Favor the Irish:
Despite injury concerns, Notre Dame retains their starting quarterback, Riley Leonard, which provides a significant advantage. In contrast, Georgia Tech is likely to be without injured quarterback Haynes King, leaving them to rely on backup Zach Pyron, who has limited experience with just two starts to his name from 2022.

Dominant Offense:
Notre Dame's offense primarily emphasizes the run game, but they’ve demonstrated their capability for blowout victories this season, highlighted by a 59-point dismantling of Purdue and a convincing 42-point win over Stanford last week. The Fighting Irish are not only looking to secure a win but also aiming to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee with their performance.

Neutral Site Dynamics:
This game will take place at the spacious Mercedes-Benz Stadium rather than on Georgia Tech's campus, effectively neutralizing any home-field advantage for the Yellow Jackets. This shift means the crowd will likely be split in allegiance, further benefiting Notre Dame as they have a strong national fan base.

NCAAF: Alabama at Tennessee
Pick: Under 56.5 / Wager: 3%

Offensive Struggles for Both Teams:
Recent performances indicate a downward trend for both offenses. Tennessee has failed to score in the first half of their last two games and is averaging only 21 points per game against SEC opponents this season. On the other hand, Alabama's scoring totals have been steadily declining, with their recent point outputs reading: 64, 42, 42, 41, 35, and 27. This downward trajectory is likely to continue against a formidable Tennessee defense.

Strong Tennessee Defense:
Tennessee's defense has proven to be tough, and they will pose significant challenges for Alabama’s offense. With both teams struggling to find their rhythm, we anticipate a low-scoring affair where neither side will break out of their current offensive slump.

Score Prediction:
Given these factors, we project a final score of Alabama 26, Tennessee 20, which keeps the total under the set line of 56.5.

NCAAF: Florida Atlantic University (FAU) at University of Texas San Antonio (UTSA)
Pick: FAU +6.5 / Wager: 3%

Parity in the American Conference:
As we reach mid-October, the middle of the pack in the American Conference appears closely matched, making this matchup particularly intriguing. UTSA, under HC Jeff Traylor, is not the same team that consistently made bowl games in recent years. The Roadrunners have struggled this season, with their offense lacking the spark needed to compete effectively. Quarterback Owen McCown has been unable to consistently ignite the attack, leaving UTSA looking pedestrian on that side of the ball.

FAU's Resilience:
Meanwhile, Tom Herman's FAU team has faced some tough luck recently, notably blowing a late lead against North Texas last week. However, there’s reason for optimism as Marshall transfer QB Cam Fancher has emerged as a playmaker, racking up 420 yards of total offense in that game against the Mean Green. His ability to create plays could be the difference-maker in this matchup.

Value in the Underdog:
With FAU getting 6.5 points, there’s substantial value in backing the Owls. They have the talent and momentum to keep this game close, if not win outright, making them a solid pick against the spread.

NCAAF: Michigan at Illinois

Pick: Over 43.5 / Wager: 2%

Defensive Struggles and Offensive Momentum:

Michigan’s pass defense has struggled this season, ranking 111th in the nation, which sets the stage for an intriguing matchup against Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer. Altmyer has been impressive, throwing for 14 touchdowns with just one interception this year, showcasing his ability to move the ball effectively through the air.

Recent Trends:

Illinois demonstrated their offensive capability last week, leading Purdue 24-3 at halftime before the game turned into a shootout that ended 50-49 in overtime. This kind of high-scoring affair is not a good sign for their defense, which has shown vulnerabilities, especially against a potent Michigan offense looking to bounce back after a clutch win.

Expecting Points:

With both teams displaying offensive strengths and Michigan’s defensive woes, the potential for a high-scoring game is significant. Taking the over at 43.5 offers a reasonable chance for a shootout, making this a solid play for the matchup.

NCAAF: Baylor at Texas Tech

Pick: Over 55.5 / Wager: 2%

High-Scoring Atmosphere in Lubbock:

Texas Tech home games are notorious for their offensive fireworks, with an average score of 48-34 in their four Lubbock games this season, resulting in a staggering 82 total points. This trend sets the stage for another potential shootout as the Red Raiders welcome Baylor.

Baylor’s Defensive Struggles:

Baylor’s defense appears to be faltering, having participated in three consecutive Big 12 shootouts. The Bears have struggled to contain opposing offenses, and with the high-powered attack of Texas Tech, they’re likely to find themselves in another high-scoring affair.

Expecting Another Shootout:

Given both teams’ current trajectories, we can anticipate a fourth consecutive shootout for Baylor on Saturday. The combination of Texas Tech’s explosive offense and Baylor’s defensive woes makes the over at 55.5 a compelling play.

NCAAF: New Mexico at Utah State

Pick: Under 78.5 / Wager: 3%

Rarely Seen High Total:

Totals this high are a rarity these days, and there’s a good reason for it. Recent clock rule changes have reduced the number of possessions in games, making those high-scoring, back-and-forth affairs less common. Despite the lack of defensive prowess from either team, the sheer number of possessions is a significant factor.

Skepticism About Possessions:

With a total of 78.5, the skepticism about the game reaching that number is valid. This is the highest total we’ve seen this season, and it raises an eyebrow. I might even consider waiting to see if it creeps up to 80, which is exceptionally rare.

Defensive Concerns:

While both defenses have their struggles, it’s the potential for just a few punts or turnovers that could easily tip the scale in favor of the Under. Even with both teams allowing points, the game flow could limit scoring opportunities. Unless we see those turnovers or punts turning into quick touchdowns, we should stay comfortably under this lofty total.

NCAAF: Colorado at Arizona

Pick: Arizona -2 / Wager: 3%

Hunter’s Limited Impact:

While Travis Hunter, a prime Heisman Trophy candidate, has been cleared to play after leaving last week’s game early, his limited snaps on the field could be a significant factor. With two other key wide receivers for the Buffaloes sidelined, Colorado’s offense may struggle to find its rhythm against a determined Arizona squad.

Arizona’s Redemption Arc:

Despite a lackluster 1-5 ATS record so far this season, Arizona is poised for a rebound. The Wildcats were anticipated to be contenders for the Big 12 title, and facing Coach Prime’s team in a homecoming game offers them the motivation needed to perform at their best. This matchup marks the school’s first sellout of the year, amplifying the stakes and atmosphere.

Home Field Advantage:

With the energy of a full stadium behind them, Arizona is likely to capitalize on their home turf. Expect the Wildcats to bring intensity and focus as they look to secure a much-needed victory against the Buffaloes.