A Minor Setback, But The Long Game is Always Our Focus

A Minor Setback, But The Strategy Stays the Same

Yesterday was the kind of day that reminds us—you can’t win them all. We went 6-9 in our plays, marking a rare slip in an otherwise stellar month. But here’s the thing: at BrownBagBets, a losing day doesn’t matter in the grand scheme. We’ve built our approach on a foundation of long-term success, so we know that no single day defines us.

A day of losses is part of the game. Much like the stock market has dips, so does sports betting. But our systematic approach—where we focus on consistent, calculated plays—is designed to ensure that these small setbacks don’t derail us. In fact, it’s the reason why we’re still up for the month, despite yesterday’s result. We learn from every day, adjust when needed, and never chase. That’s why we’ve been able to grow our bankrolls month after month, year after year.

Highlights from Yesterday: MLB Playoffs, NFL on the Horizon

Despite the rough outcome in terms of picks, yesterday was an incredible day for sports:

• Juan Soto delivered in a massive way, crushing a three-run homer in the 10th inning to send the New York Yankees back to the World Series. For the first time in 15 years, the Yankees are back on baseball’s biggest stage, securing their 41st trip to the Fall Classic with a 5-2 victory over the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of the ALCS.

• Over in the NLCS, the New York Mets surprised a lot of people by sending the series back to Los Angeles for Game 6. That’s been their story all season—defying the odds when it counts. But the series is still wide open. The Dodgers are just one win away from the World Series, but also one loss away from a do-or-die Game 7. And here’s the kicker: the Mets have the pitching advantage, so this one is far from over.

NFL Takes Center Stage

As we pivot from the MLB playoffs, it’s time to lock in on the NFL, where Week 6 is already shaping up to be a wild one. The story of the week has been the dominance of road favorites—with the Chiefs vs. 49ers, Lions vs. Vikings, Jets vs. Steelers, and Texans vs. Packers all on deck, it’s bound to get even crazier.

We’ll be diving deep into today’s NFL slate, analyzing every matchup and hunting for value plays that fit our tried-and-true method. Just as we’ve said before, one losing day doesn’t change our approach—it just sharpens our focus. We’re gearing up for a strong Sunday and looking to keep building toward another winning month.

Focus on the Process, Not the Outcome

At BrownBagBets, we’re not here for the short-term wins—we’re here for the long haul. One day doesn’t define us, and yesterday’s results are just a reminder of the discipline that guides our strategy. It’s this approach that separates us from the rest: no chasing, no drastic changes, just sticking to the plan and letting the long-term success speak for itself.

So, as we roll into another massive NFL Sunday, remember to stay patient, trust the process, and let’s keep working toward another winning month. The long game is where the real gains are made.

MLB - National League Championship Series (Game 6): New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: Mets ML @ +140 / Wager: 4%

Mets Riding Momentum:

We’re witnessing a bit of déjà vu in the NLCS reminiscent of last October when the Diamondbacks appeared down and out, trailing the Phillies 3-1. They managed to stay alive in Game 5 at home and went on to shock Philly twice at Citizens Bank Park to reach the World Series. The Mets are echoing this sentiment after their crucial win on Friday, keeping their hopes alive in this series.

Dodgers Under Pressure:

With the pressure now squarely on the Dodgers, we see potential cracks in their pitching staff. They were pummeled in Friday’s 12-6 defeat, with both starter Jack Flaherty and the bullpen failing to deliver. This recent downturn raises questions about their ability to rebound under the mounting pressure of a playoff series.

Manaea’s Winning Track Record:

Sean Manaea has been a reliable option for the Mets, contributing to their impressive record of winning 17 of their last 21 games with him on the mound. His presence gives New York a significant edge, especially as they look to build on their recent momentum and capitalize on the Dodgers’ vulnerabilities.

Value in the Line:

At +140, the Mets present excellent value as they seek to level the series. With the Dodgers’ pitching staff showing signs of wear and the Mets gaining confidence, we believe this is the perfect opportunity to back New York for the win.

NFL: New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Patriots +6 / Wager: 2%

Weather-Worn Showdown in London:

This London matchup is poised to be impacted by rainy conditions and 20 mph winds, making for an unpredictable game. While the stadium offers some coverage, the field will still be exposed to the elements, potentially limiting scoring opportunities in what could otherwise be an offensive shootout, given the deficiencies of both defenses.

Jaguars’ Struggles:

With Drake Maye stepping in as the starting quarterback for New England, the Patriots are looking to elevate their performance from the basement of the standings. On the other hand, the Jaguars should not be favored by six points against any team, especially one that has shown signs of life. Speculation surrounding Doug Pederson’s future adds another layer of uncertainty for Jacksonville.

Value in the Line:

If this game were being played in Jacksonville, the line would likely exceed seven points, and the public would be clamoring to back the Patriots. With the added cushion of +6, it’s an opportunity we can’t pass up. Expect a competitive game where the Patriots can keep it close, if not pull off the upset.

NFL: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Falcons -2.5 / Wager: 4%

Seahawks’ Defensive Woes:

Mike Macdonald’s reputation as a defensive mastermind is facing a serious test, as the Seahawks have surrendered the second-most points and yards in the league over the past three weeks. Injuries are a contributing factor, particularly with starting cornerbacks Riq Woolen (a Pro Bowler) and Tre Brown both sidelined, allowing opposing quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins to exploit their defense.

Injuries Impacting Seattle’s Offense:

Seattle’s offensive line issues have compounded the problems, with rookie Mike Jerrell now stepping in as the starting right tackle due to injuries. This instability on both sides of the ball spells trouble for the Seahawks, who find themselves on a three-game losing streak.

Falcons’ Momentum:

In contrast, the Falcons are riding a wave of momentum, having won their last three games. With the line sitting at -2.5, there’s clear value here, especially considering that most books have the spread over a field goal. While the market might feel one-sided with the public leaning toward Atlanta, the numbers speak for themselves.

Early Kickoff Concerns:

The 10 a.m. Pacific time kickoff adds a layer of challenge for the Seahawks, who struggled in a similar early game against a weak New England team earlier this season. Seattle’s struggles to stop the run play right into Atlanta’s game plan, with dynamic backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier ready to exploit the defense. The Falcons’ offense has found its groove, averaging at least 26 points per game in their recent outings.

Final Take:

All signs point to the Falcons continuing their winning ways against a Seahawks team that simply can’t keep up. Take the Falcons to cover the small spread and make a statement in this matchup.

NFL: Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

Pick: Bills -8.5 / Wager: 2%

Bills Return Home:

The Bills are finally back in Buffalo after a grueling stretch of three straight road games. This homecoming brings a fresh dynamic to the offense, especially with the recent acquisition of Amari Cooper from Cleveland, who is set to step into the No. 1 receiver role. His presence should provide a significant boost to Josh Allen and the passing attack.

Titans’ Misleading Defense:

While the Titans boast the league’s No. 1-ranked defense, it’s crucial to note that this status is somewhat misleading. They’ve faced three backup quarterbacks and a rookie, Caleb Williams, thus far—definitely not the caliber of Josh Allen. This week, the Titans will be without Will Levis, their first-string quarterback, due to injury. Career backup Mason Rudolph will be under center, lacking the offensive weapons needed to pose a serious threat.

Inconsistent Titans:

The Titans have struggled with consistency this season, and Rudolph’s limited experience only adds to the challenge. The Bills have shown they can capitalize on turnovers, and with the Titans’ offensive issues, it’s reasonable to expect the Buffalo defense to force some mistakes, leading to additional scoring opportunities.

NFL: Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers

Pick: Packers ML / Wager: 3%

Injury Concerns for the Texans:

While this matchup could have postseason implications, the Texans’ health issues make it a challenging prospect for them. With Nico Collins on IR and several defensive starters potentially sidelined, Houston’s depth will be tested. Conversely, the Packers are mostly healthy, with key players expected to suit up, which gives them a significant edge heading into this game.

Packers’ Defensive Prowess:

Green Bay’s defense has been opportunistic this season, leading the league with 17 takeaways—an impressive feat tied for the most by any team through six games in the last decade. This trend will likely continue against a Texans offense that is missing its star wide receiver and struggling with injuries on the offensive line.

Stroud vs. Love:

Both teams feature talented young quarterbacks, but the conditions favor Jordan Love at home. Love has effectively spread the ball around his talented receiving corps and has led the Packers to score 28+ points in three of his four starts this year. Meanwhile, CJ Stroud may find it tough to keep pace without his primary targets and against a solid Packers defense.

Limitations on Houston’s Offense:

Houston’s chances diminish further with their defensive backs missing crucial games. With key injuries to safety Jimmie Ward and cornerback Kamari Lassiter, the Texans’ defense could struggle to contain the Packers’ diverse offensive attack. If Green Bay’s cornerback Jaire Alexander can effectively limit Texans receiver Stefon Diggs, the Packers will likely come out on top.

NFL: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Colts -3 / Wager: 2%

Quarterback Dynamics Favor the Colts:

While it would be nice to see veteran Joe Flacco leading the charge for the Colts, even Anthony Richardson under center provides a better outlook than what the Dolphins bring without Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins may be getting some market love coming off a bye week, but without their star quarterback against a competent Colts team, this line feels like an overreaction.

Injury Returns Boost Colts:

The Colts are set to regain both their starting quarterback and running back for this matchup, giving them a significant advantage. If we believe in the Colts’ offense, this game should have a line closer to -7, similar to the Raiders-Rams matchup. The Colts are better than their record suggests, and their full-strength offense can exploit Miami’s vulnerabilities.

Expectations for the Dolphins:

On the road, Miami will need to prove they can handle a competent opponent, especially with their backup quarterback in Tyler Huntley. While Huntley could improve with an extra week of preparation, the Dolphins have struggled without Tua, and it’s hard to trust them to cover more than three points in this situation.

NFL: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Lions +2.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Sam Darnold over 261.5 passing yards / Wager: 2%

Offensive Firepower Drives the Lions:

Despite losing defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, we still have faith in Dan Campbell’s Lions. This team is stacked offensively, and even with the injury, they possess the firepower to compete. The Lions’ offense can exploit the weaknesses in the Vikings’ defense, making them the play here.

Matchup Benefits for Darnold:

The Lions have become a pass-funnel defense, especially without Hutchinson. This setup positions Sam Darnold for a significant day through the air. With Detroit playing a high percentage of man coverage, Darnold should find success connecting with his receivers. The return of Aaron Jones adds another dimension to the passing game, allowing Darnold to leverage quick throws and extend plays.

Expecting Big Numbers:

With the matchup favoring the passing attack and Darnold’s potential for big yardage, we believe he can easily surpass the 261.5 passing yards mark. This game is shaping up to be an offensive showcase, making the Lions and Darnold strong plays for this matchup.

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Pick: Eagles -3 / Wager: 3%

Eagles Maintain Momentum Against Giants:

The Eagles have dominated the recent history between these two teams, winning five of the last six matchups. We expect that trend to continue, especially with Saquon Barkley returning to MetLife Stadium. The Giants are dealing with significant injuries, including Kayvon Thibodeaux on IR and question marks around Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defensive front presents a formidable challenge for a Giants offensive line missing left tackle Andrew Thomas.

Defensive Dominance:

Last week, the Eagles showcased their defensive prowess by hitting Deshaun Watson 10 times and sacking him five times. Saquon Barkley, though a talented returnee for New York, faces a daunting task against an Eagles defense that thrives on exploiting offensive weaknesses. The Giants have allowed the second-most rushing yards per carry, which opens the door for Jalen Hurts to capitalize on the ground, adding to his impressive total of 43 career rushing touchdowns.

Bye Week Benefits for the Eagles:

The Eagles benefited from a bye week to address any internal issues, especially amid rumors of a rift between Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni. With the Giants averaging just 11.5 points per game in their four losses, it’s clear they are struggling offensively. Without Thomas anchoring the line, the pressure will only increase on quarterback Daniel Jones.

Barkley’s Impact:

While Barkley’s return brings excitement, he won’t be enough to lead the Giants to victory against a motivated Eagles squad. With two healthy star receivers to support Hurts, we believe the Eagles will emerge victorious and cover the spread. This matchup is all set for the Eagles to assert their dominance, and we’re betting on them to do just that.

NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Rams -6.5 / Wager: 3%

Rams Poised for a Reset:

The Raiders have stumbled into a rough patch, suffering two consecutive blowout losses—16 to the Broncos and 19 to the Steelers. Their current ranking at the bottom of the league in EPA per rush, coupled with quarterback Aidan O’Connell’s subpar average of 5.6 yards per attempt, paints a bleak picture for Vegas. Meanwhile, the Rams have had a rough start at 1-4, but the bye week offers a chance to regroup and refocus. There’s growing optimism that Cooper Kupp could return this Sunday, which would significantly bolster their offense.

Rams Ready to Capitalize:

Los Angeles has experienced a series of narrow losses to playoff-caliber teams, including the Packers, Lions, and Bears, demonstrating they are better than their record suggests. With the Rams returning from their bye, we expect head coach Sean McVay to leverage this time to optimize their game plan against a Raiders team that looks increasingly dysfunctional. The recent turmoil in Vegas, including rumors surrounding Davante Adams’ departure and potential moves by new minority owner Tom Brady to bring in Bill Belichick next season, adds to the chaos.

Injury Concerns for the Raiders:

With Raiders WR Jakobi Myers likely out again, the offensive firepower is dwindling. On the flip side, if Kupp does indeed return for LA, the Rams could find the momentum they need to secure a comfortable victory. Given the current state of things.

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Deebo Samuel over 53.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%

Pick: Under 47 / Wager: 2%

Chiefs Leaning Towards Unders:

The Chiefs have transformed into a straight under team, and with the 49ers likely to take a conservative approach, especially given their third-string running back situation, we see a low-scoring affair here. Historically, these two teams were knotted at 19-19 through regulation in the Super Bowl, and their current offensive struggles suggest we won’t see an offensive explosion. Kansas City currently ranks 30th in red zone touchdowns since Jerick McKinnon went down with an injury in Week 10 last season, converting only 38.9% of their opportunities. Meanwhile, the 49ers are not faring much better, sitting at 25th in red zone efficiency this season.

Defensive Trends Favor the Under:

The Chiefs boast a top-10 red zone defense, making it difficult for opponents to score touchdowns. Kansas City’s under margin of 4.7 points is the fifth largest in the NFL, and their road games have averaged just 37.8 points since the start of 2023—the third lowest in the league—with a -6 margin, which is by far the lowest in the NFL. Andy Reid has also been 6-2 to the under in his last eight games following a bye week, and Patrick Mahomes has gone under in 7 of his last 9 matchups against NFC teams, with an average score of just 40.2.

Deebo’s Opportunity:

Despite dealing with a wrist injury, Deebo Samuel has no game designation and is expected to be heavily involved on Sunday. With Jauan Jennings sidelined due to a hip injury, Samuel will likely see increased targets. He thrives against Cover 2 defenses, and the Chiefs utilize this coverage 67% of the time, the second-highest rate in the NFL. This matchup sets up favorably for Samuel to exceed his receiving yard total.