Gratitude and Growth: BrownBagBets’ Vegas Wins and NFL Divisional Round

A Winning Night in Vegas – Gratitude, Growth, and Community:

Last night, our NBA plays led the way to another winning evening, kicking off the BrownBagBets leadership team’s Vegas retreat in style. But the real highlight wasn’t just the wins—it was the conversations, reflections, and shared memories that define who we are.

We spent the night remembering the road we’ve traveled:

• That first March Madness in Atlantic City, when this all began.

• The trials, setbacks, and comebacks that shaped us into the team we are today.

• The constant cycle of learning, growing, and improving that fuels our success.

Words like gratitude, education, and resilience came up time and again, as did the one word that binds us all: community. This isn’t just about betting—it’s about building something bigger, together.

Who We Are and Where We’re Going:

At BrownBagBets, we’re not just picks and plays. We’re a team built on experience, growth, and shared purpose. Every bet, every discussion, and every lesson is about creating a better path forward—for us, and for this community.

Gratitude for the journey so far fuels our focus for the future. We’re here to grow, improve, and educate, while building a resilient community of like-minded bettors. Together, we win.

Today’s Slate – Divisional Round and More:

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs:

• Eight teams remain in the fight for a Super Bowl, and today’s action is stacked:

• Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Houston Texans, 4:30 ET.

• Detroit Lions (-9.5) vs. Washington Commanders, 8 ET.

College Basketball:

• A packed Saturday slate offers value galore in conference matchups across the country.

EPL, NBA, and NHL:

• Strong opportunities in each league round out the day’s action, giving us plenty to work with.

Final Thought – Community Drives Success:

As we dive into today’s packed slate, we do so with gratitude for the journey and a commitment to the values that got us here. From NFL Divisional action to college hoops, NBA, NHL, and EPL, today’s plays are another step in our collective pursuit of growth and success.

Let’s stay disciplined, stay focused, and keep building together. This is who we are—this is BrownBagBets. Let’s crush it.

English Premier League: Bournemouth at Newcastle United

Pick: Newcastle ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Newcastle’s Momentum: The Magpies are in scintillating form, riding a nine-match winning streak across all competitions. This run has solidified their position in the Premier League’s top four and underscores their ability to maintain consistency against varied opposition.

Bournemouth’s Vulnerabilities: While the Cherries are unbeaten in their last ten matches, their form is skewed by a tendency to settle for draws. Against a red-hot Newcastle side, this lack of killer instinct could prove costly, especially on the road.

Home Fortress: Newcastle has turned St. James’ Park into a fortress this season, with the passionate home crowd providing a significant boost. Their performances at home have been dominant, and they’ve consistently delivered results against both mid-table and top-tier opponents.

Alexander Isak’s Form: Isak’s red-hot form has been a critical factor in Newcastle’s attacking efficiency. His clinical finishing and ability to create chances add a cutting edge that Bournemouth’s defense may struggle to contain.

Head-to-Head Advantage: Newcastle’s recent dominance over Bournemouth, combined with superior tactical discipline, positions them well to secure another victory.

Betting Indicators

• Winning Streak: Newcastle’s nine-match winning run across all competitions highlights their form and confidence.

• Home Advantage: The Magpies have been exceptional at St. James’ Park, making them reliable favorites in this matchup.

• Injury Concerns for Bournemouth: A thinner squad for the visitors could limit their ability to compete effectively against Newcastle’s depth.

• Odds Reflect Confidence: Bookmakers have priced Newcastle as favorites, aligning with their recent form and home dominance.

Projection: Newcastle 2, Bournemouth 0

English Premier League: Aston Villa at Arsenal

Pick: Both Teams to Score (BTTS) / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Arsenal’s Offensive Prowess: The Gunners have been a consistent attacking force at home, scoring in 89% of their matches at the Emirates Stadium this season. Their average of 2.08 goals per game underlines their ability to create and convert chances.

Villa’s Attacking Form: Aston Villa has thrived under Unai Emery, with Ollie Watkins leading the line effectively. Villa has proven they can breach strong defenses, netting against several top-tier opponents this season.

Arsenal’s Defensive Vulnerabilities: Despite their attacking dominance, Arsenal has kept clean sheets in only 56% of their home matches, leaving openings for opponents like Villa to capitalize on.

Villa’s Away Trends: Aston Villa has scored in 67% of their away games but has also conceded in most, resulting in high-scoring affairs. This trend aligns well with the BTTS market for this matchup.

Recent Head-to-Head Encounters: Arsenal won the last meeting at Villa Park 2-0, but the prior clash at the Emirates ended 2-1 in favor of the Gunners, highlighting the likelihood of goals from both sides.

Betting Indicators

• Arsenal’s Scoring Consistency: The Gunners have scored in almost every home game this season.

• Villa’s Attacking Resurgence: Unai Emery’s tactics have unlocked Villa’s attacking potential, especially with Ollie Watkins in form.

• Defensive Frailties: Both teams have shown defensive lapses, making a clean sheet for either side unlikely.

• BTTS Trends: Villa’s away games and Arsenal’s matches at the Emirates often see goals from both teams.

Projection: Arsenal 2, Aston Villa

NFL Divisional Round: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Texans +6 (1H Line) / Wager: 3%

Pick: Chiefs -8 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Joe Mixon under 57.5 yards rushing / Wager: 2%

Pick: Patrick Mahomes over 23.5 yards rushing / Wager: 2%

Pick: Travis Kelce over 52.5 yards receiving / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Texans +6 (1H Line):

Houston thrives early in games, with a 14-4 ATS first-half record this season under Demeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud. While Kansas City is dominant, rust could be a factor after not playing meaningful snaps since Dec. 25. Houston’s ability to start strong, as seen in close first-half battles with elite teams like Buffalo and Detroit, supports this play.

Chiefs -8 (Full Game):

Kansas City has hit playoff mode, winning and covering their last three meaningful games. Mahomes and the Chiefs, rested and prepared, face a Texans team with inconsistent late-game performances. Houston showed vulnerabilities against contenders in late-season losses to Baltimore and Kansas City. Expect Kansas City to dominate the second half and cover the number.

Joe Mixon under 57.5 yards rushing:

Facing the NFL’s best rush defense, Mixon’s chances are slim. He has rushed for 57 yards or less in six of his last nine games and is dealing with an ankle injury. Kansas City rarely allows opposing RBs to hit 16+ carries, especially in games where they control the tempo. Mixon’s decline in efficiency combined with game script heavily favors this under.

Patrick Mahomes over 23.5 yards rushing:

Mahomes elevates his rushing in the playoffs, surpassing this line in half of his 18 postseason games. Houston has struggled against mobile QBs, allowing a league-worst 8.1 yards per scramble. With Houston’s pass rush likely creating pressure, expect Mahomes to extend drives with his legs.

Travis Kelce over 52.5 yards receiving:

Kelce consistently delivers in the postseason, with Mahomes leaning on him in crucial moments. Houston’s defense struggles to contain elite tight ends, and Kelce’s chemistry with Mahomes should result in a productive outing.

Betting Indicators

• Texans First Half ATS: Houston is 26-11 ATS in the first half under Ryans/Stroud, showcasing a trend of early competitiveness.

• Chiefs Momentum: Kansas City has won and covered in three of their last four meaningful games, with dominant second-half adjustments.

• Mixon Efficiency Decline: Mixon is rushing for fewer yards as the season progresses and now faces a stingy Chiefs defense.

• Mahomes Playoff Legs: Mahomes has surpassed 23.5 rushing yards in nine of his 18 playoff games, with Houston ranking poorly against QB scrambles.

• Kelce Playoff Reliability: Kelce consistently outperforms in the postseason, with the Chiefs likely to rely on him heavily.

Projection: Chiefs 31, Texans 20

NFL Divisional Round: Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions

Pick: Lions -9 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Over 55.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs over 82.5 yards rushing / Wager: 3%

Pick: Jayden Daniels over 1.5 passing TDs / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Lions -9:

Detroit has proven itself as a legitimate contender, boasting a relentless offense and a defense that continues to show improvements. Coming off extra rest, the Lions are primed to dominate in all phases against a Commanders team with limited weapons and a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels facing his first road playoff environment. Detroit’s offensive line should control the game, giving Jared Goff time to attack and opening lanes for the run game. The Lions have consistently shown they can handle inferior teams, and with the dome environment playing to their strengths, expect them to cover easily.

Over 55.5:

Both teams are capable of producing points, and this game has all the makings of a shootout. The Lions’ high-powered offense is complemented by the Commanders’ surprisingly efficient passing attack, led by Daniels, who has thrown for multiple TDs in six straight full games. Detroit’s defense, while improved, still has vulnerabilities in coverage, which Daniels can exploit. Meanwhile, the Lions should have no problem putting up points against a Washington defense struggling with injuries and consistency.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 82.5 rushing yards:

Gibbs has been electric, with three straight 100+ yard rushing games, and he remains Detroit’s most explosive weapon. Even with David Montgomery back, Gibbs has shown he can command a significant workload, especially against a Commanders defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in missed tackles and is dealing with injuries to key players like Daron Payne. Detroit’s offensive line should pave the way for Gibbs to continue his recent dominance.

Jayden Daniels over 1.5 passing TDs:

Daniels has shown poise and precision, throwing multiple TDs in six straight full games. The Lions, while better defensively, have allowed multiple TD passes in four of their last six games. In a high-scoring environment where the Commanders will likely need to air it out to keep pace, Daniels should have ample opportunity to hit this mark, especially with Detroit’s secondary focused on limiting big plays.

Betting Indicators

• Lions ATS: Detroit has consistently covered against weaker teams and thrives in favorable matchups, particularly at home in the dome.

• Commanders on the Road: Washington’s rookie QB and lack of a strong running game make them a poor road team in this spot.

• Gibbs Recent Form: Gibbs has cleared 82.5 rushing yards in three straight games and should continue his hot streak against a vulnerable Commanders run defense.

• Daniels’ Passing Efficiency: The rookie has thrown for multiple TDs in six straight games, proving his ability to produce even in high-pressure situations.

Projections: Lions 38, Commanders 24

NCAAB: Alabama at Kentucky

Pick: Alabama +2.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Alabama’s high-powered offense, averaging an impressive 91.1 points per game, provides them with the firepower to challenge any opponent, even in the hostile environment of Rupp Arena. The Crimson Tide’s dominance on the boards (45.4 rebounds per game, second nationally) gives them a significant edge over Kentucky, whose 40.9 rebounds per game rank noticeably lower. This rebounding disparity could lead to valuable second-chance opportunities and extra possessions for Alabama.

Kentucky, while explosive offensively, struggles defensively, ranking 75th in defensive efficiency. Alabama’s balanced scoring attack and ability to capitalize on defensive lapses could exploit this weakness. The Crimson Tide has shown resilience, going 3-0 following losses this season, and will look to bounce back here. Meanwhile, Kentucky is riding high after two significant conference wins, but their defense may struggle to keep up with Alabama’s relentless pace.

Betting Indicators:

• Alabama’s Resilience: The Crimson Tide is undefeated (3-0) following losses this season.

• Rebounding Edge: Alabama ranks 2nd nationally with 45.4 rebounds per game, a crucial advantage over Kentucky’s 40.9 rebounds per game.

• Kentucky’s Defensive Vulnerabilities: The Wildcats are ranked just 75th in defensive efficiency, which Alabama can exploit.

Projection:

• Final Score: Alabama 85, Kentucky 81

NCAAB: Virginia at Louisville

Pick: Louisville -15.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Virginia’s Struggles: Virginia’s recent woes were compounded by Wednesday's heartbreaking buzzer-beater loss to SMU, marking their fourth consecutive defeat. This skid includes a 20-point home loss to Louisville earlier in the season, highlighting the mismatch in this year’s head-to-head.

Louisville’s Momentum: Pat Kelsey’s squad is red-hot, riding a seven-game winning streak, with four of their last five ACC victories coming by double digits. Their dominance has been evident on both ends of the floor, as seen in their previous matchup against Virginia when they controlled the glass with a commanding 42-25 rebounding edge.

Key Contributors: Louisville’s offense has been bolstered by Wisconsin transfer Chucky Hepburn, who dropped 24 points in the Cardinals' midweek dismantling of Syracuse. The Cards’ balanced attack and defensive pressure are likely to overwhelm a reeling Virginia squad.

Virginia’s Matchup Issues: The Wahoos struggled mightily in the paint and on the boards in their prior meeting with Louisville. Without a clear answer for Louisville's size and physicality, they are likely to face similar challenges in this rematch.

Betting Indicators

• Head-to-Head Results: Louisville dominated the previous matchup, winning by 20 points on the road.

• Momentum: Louisville’s seven-game win streak contrasts sharply with Virginia’s four-game slide.

• Rebounding Edge: Louisville’s control on the boards (42-25 last meeting) gives them a significant advantage.

• Home Dominance: Louisville has excelled in recent ACC home games, with multiple double-digit wins.

Projections

• Final Score: Louisville 78, Virginia 60

NCAAB: Auburn at Georgia

Pick: Georgia +7.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Auburn’s second game without star Johni Broome presents a significant challenge against a Georgia squad built to exploit his absence. The Bulldogs are one of the biggest teams in college basketball, excelling in offensive rebounding and ranking second nationally in second-chance conversion percentage. Without Broome’s 10.7 rebounds per game, Auburn’s defense becomes particularly vulnerable, as evidenced by their 190th rank in second-chance defense even with Broome in the lineup.

Georgia’s ability to create and capitalize on extra opportunities at home could keep this game competitive. Auburn’s recent road performances—losing to Duke, narrowly beating Texas by five, and edging South Carolina by three—underscore the difficulty of blowing out SEC opponents on the road. Georgia’s size and physicality give them a path to cover this generous spread.

Betting Indicators:

• Broome’s Absence: Auburn’s star rebounder and defensive anchor is unavailable, exposing a significant weakness against Georgia’s elite offensive rebounding.

• Georgia’s Second-Chance Dominance: The Bulldogs rank 2nd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage, a key advantage against Auburn’s vulnerable interior defense.

• SEC Road Struggles: Auburn is 2-1 in true road games but has struggled to dominate, with narrow margins against Texas and South Carolina.

Projection: Auburn 72, Georgia 68

NCAAB: Wake Forest at Virginia Tech

Pick: Over 135.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Wake Forest’s Scoring Surge: The Demon Deacons are on fire offensively during their four-game win streak, averaging nearly 82 points per game. Guard Hunter Sallis has been unstoppable, scoring 20+ points in six straight games and averaging 26 points per game in that span. Wake has also hit the over in 4 of its last 5 games, showing a consistent trend toward high-scoring matchups.

Virginia Tech’s Over Trends: The Hokies have gone over in 6 of their last 8 games, with all games outside the Bay Area during that stretch reaching at least 144 total points. They’ve shown offensive firepower, thanks to players like VCU transfer forward Tobi Lawal, who has dropped 22 points in two of the last four contests.

Pace and Shooting Efficiency: Both teams play at a pace conducive to higher scores and have been efficient offensively. Wake’s hot shooting from the field and Virginia Tech’s balanced scoring attack suggest this game has plenty of potential to exceed the total.

Betting Indicators

• Wake Forest Over Trend: The Demon Deacons are 4-1 over in their last five games, consistently scoring in the 80s.

• Virginia Tech’s Recent Overs: The Hokies have gone over the total in 6 of their last 8 games, with most games exceeding 144 points.

• Hot Shooters: Hunter Sallis for Wake and Tobi Lawal for Virginia Tech have been reliable scorers, further pushing the tempo and point totals upward.

Projection: Wake Forest 78, Virginia Tech 74

NCAAB: St. Louis at Richmond

Pick: Under 138.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Richmond’s Offensive Struggles: The Spiders’ offensive woes have been a hallmark of their season, particularly from beyond the arc, where they are hitting just 29.4% of their three-point attempts. Chris Mooney’s Princeton-inspired system relies on spacing and efficient shooting, but with such poor outside accuracy, Richmond has leaned on their deliberate tempo to keep games low-scoring. This has resulted in six consecutive unders for the Spiders.

St. Louis Adjusting Under Josh Schertz: The Billikens, under first-year head coach Josh Schertz, have also shown a clear preference for controlling tempo and grinding out possessions. With a roster full of transfers, including key pieces from Schertz’s Indiana State squad, St. Louis has focused on defense-first basketball. They’ve hit the under in five straight games and in nine of their last eleven overall, reflecting their inability to consistently push games into high-scoring territory.

Pace and Matchup Dynamics: Both teams are among the slowest-paced in the A-10, with offenses that have struggled to find rhythm. Combine that with Richmond’s home-court tendency to dictate a methodical pace, and this game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair.

Betting Indicators

• Richmond’s Under Streak: The Spiders have gone under the total in six straight games, largely due to their inefficiency from three-point range.

• St. Louis’ Under Trend: The Billikens have gone under in 9 of their last 11 games, showing a consistent pattern of defensive and slower-paced basketball.

• Tempo Factors: Both teams rank near the bottom of the conference in pace, with a focus on half-court execution over transition opportunities.

Projections

• Final Score: Richmond 65, St. Louis 62

NCAAB: Belmont at Evansville

Pick: Under 145.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Evansville’s Defensive Tempo: Evansville has embraced a slower pace under HC David Ragland, particularly in home games. Since December 29, the Purple Aces have played three home games, covering the spread in all of them while keeping scorelines well under the total.

Longest Under Streak: Evansville currently holds the nation’s longest active under streak at 12 straight games. Their recent contests, even against faster-paced opponents, have remained low-scoring due to their deliberate tempo and defensive focus.

Belmont’s High-Powered Offense: Belmont’s 81.1 points per game will challenge Evansville’s pace, but similar offensive teams have struggled to impose their tempo at the Ford Center. Belmont’s attempts to run under Casey Alexander may meet resistance from an Evansville team adept at dictating slower games.

Head-to-Head Matchup: The deliberate pace of Evansville clashes with Belmont’s offensive style, setting up a battle of wills. With Evansville’s strong defensive tendencies, this total appears inflated.

Betting Indicators

• Trend: Evansville is on a 12-game under streak, the longest in the nation.

• Home Games: All three of Evansville’s home games since December 29 have gone under the total.

• Belmont’s Pace: While Belmont averages 81.1 points, opponents have struggled to hit their scoring averages against Evansville’s tempo at the Ford Center.

Projections

• Final Score: Belmont 74, Evansville 65

NCAAB: Wisconsin at USC

Pick: USC +1 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

USC’s Momentum: Eric Musselman has finally unlocked the potential of his roster, largely thanks to impactful transfers. The Trojans are riding a six-wins-in-eight-games streak, highlighted by recent back-to-back victories over Big Ten opponents Illinois and Iowa. Over this stretch, the offense has been electric, averaging nearly 85 points per game.

Desmond Claude’s Impact: USC's ex-Xavier G Desmond Claude has been instrumental, pouring in 56 points across the last two games. The Trojans' offense has been lights-out, shooting 58.2% from the field against two defensively sound teams in Illinois and Iowa.

Wisconsin’s Recent Form: While the Badgers climbed into the rankings, they’ve feasted on the weaker half of the Big Ten. This road trip to Galen Center presents a significant step up in competition, especially against a surging USC squad firing on all cylinders.

Key Matchup Dynamics: USC’s high-tempo offense and recent offensive efficiency pose a challenge to Wisconsin’s methodical, defense-first approach. With John Tonje anchoring the Badgers, Wisconsin relies heavily on grinding out possessions, which could falter against USC’s firepower.

Betting Indicators

• USC Offense: The Trojans are averaging 85 points per game during their win streak.

• Shooting Efficiency: USC shot 58.2% from the field in their last two games.

• Home Advantage: Galen Center has been kind to USC, particularly in matchups against Power 5 opponents.

• Wisconsin’s Weak Competition: The Badgers’ rise in rankings is padded by wins over lower-tier Big Ten teams.

Projections

• Final Score: USC 78, Wisconsin 73

NCAAB: Northeastern at College of Charleston

Pick: Charleston -6.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Northeastern’s Struggles: The Huskies have been an auto-fade team in recent weeks, failing to cover nine straight games and 11 consecutive matchups within the CAA. Their inability to stay competitive, especially against top-tier conference teams, has been glaring. On the road, Northeastern has lost four of their last five by seven or more points, with their only "close" loss being by five.

Charleston’s Dominance: As the best team in the conference, Charleston is a powerhouse, especially at home. While their offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders, they’ve still managed to cover four of their last five CAA games. Their recent history against Northeastern is particularly noteworthy, having dismantled the Huskies 99-63 in their last meeting at home during the 2022-23 season.

Spot Dynamics: Northeastern is playing their fourth consecutive road game, which could lead to fatigue and lapses in execution. Conversely, Charleston has been consistent at home, covering both of their CAA home wins by margins that comfortably clear this number.

Betting Indicators

• Northeastern ATS Slump: 0-9 ATS in their last nine games, 0-11 ATS in their last 11 CAA matchups.

• Charleston at Home: Two CAA home wins this season have exceeded the spread of -6.5.

• Head-to-Head: Charleston won their last home meeting against Northeastern by a staggering 36 points (99-63).

• Fatigue Factor: Northeastern is on their fourth straight road game, a challenging stretch for any team.

Projections

• Final Score: Charleston 77, Northeastern 64

NCAAB: Arkansas at Missouri

Pick: Arkansas +6.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Buy-Low Spot for Arkansas: The Razorbacks have had their struggles, but this matchup against Missouri presents an opportunity to back them at a favorable number. Despite their recent form, Arkansas matches up well with Missouri in key areas.

Rebounding Advantage Neutralized: Arkansas' struggles on the offensive glass won’t be as much of a factor here, as Missouri ranks just 269th in defensive rebounding percentage. This limits the Tigers' ability to capitalize on one of the Hogs' perceived weaknesses.

Foul Discipline: Missouri thrives at getting to the free-throw line, but Arkansas’ below-average foul rate could help mitigate this advantage. By limiting trips to the line, the Razorbacks can keep the Tigers from padding their scoring total.

Value in the Line: Missouri’s recent performances might inflate this spread, creating value for Arkansas at +6.5. Based on adjusted metrics, this game projects closer to a 4-point margin, making +6.5 a strong play.

Betting Indicators

• Missouri’s Rebounding Issues: 269th in defensive rebounding percentage, limiting their ability to dominate second-chance opportunities.

• Arkansas ATS Opportunity: Value in the number as the Razorbacks look to bounce back.

• Matchup Metrics: Missouri’s reliance on free throws aligns poorly against an Arkansas team that commits fouls at a below-average rate.

Projections

• Final Score: Missouri 75, Arkansas 71

NCAAB: California at NC State

Pick: NC State -5.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

NC State’s Tough-Luck Losses: The Wolfpack have faced a challenging ACC schedule, with three conference losses coming by a combined margin of just nine points. Despite the setbacks, NC State remains competitive, and the team’s recent performances indicate they’re due for a breakthrough. Guard Marcus Hill, a key transfer from Bowling Green, has been heating up, including a standout 20-point effort against North Carolina in a narrow two-point defeat.

California’s Road Struggles: The Golden Bears have been overwhelmed on the road in their inaugural ACC season, suffering double-digit losses in all three conference road games (Pitt, Clemson, UNC). Their lack of defensive discipline and inability to handle hostile environments have made them a liability away from home. Against a hungry NC State team, Cal’s vulnerabilities are likely to be exposed once again.

Matchup Edge: NC State’s ability to push the tempo and exploit defensive lapses should work to their advantage. The Wolfpack’s offensive balance and the energy of their home crowd will make it difficult for Cal to keep pace, especially given their struggles against quality opponents on the road.

Betting Indicators

• Cal’s Road Deficiencies: The Golden Bears are 0-3 ATS on the road in ACC play, with all losses coming by double digits.

• NC State’s Close Calls: The Wolfpack are 3-1 ATS at home in ACC games this season and have stayed competitive even in losses.

• Momentum for Marcus Hill: Hill’s recent scoring surge gives NC State a clear offensive focal point heading into this matchup.

Projections

• Final Score: NC State 76, California 67

NHL: Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

Pick: Avalanche ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Tough Schedule for Dallas: The Stars are navigating a grueling stretch, playing their seventh game in 11 days. After a single home game, they're back on the road, heading to high altitude for this matchup. Fatigue could play a significant factor against a rested and motivated Avalanche team.

Key Injuries for Dallas: The Stars are missing key contributors Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin, while Roope Hintz is questionable. These absences impact both Dallas' scoring depth and their ability to generate consistent offensive pressure, especially against a Colorado team that excels in transition.

Revenge Narrative for Colorado: The Avalanche have extra motivation after blowing a 3-0 lead against Edmonton on Thursday. Additionally, they’ll be looking to respond to their earlier loss to Dallas this season, in which the Stars capitalized on limited chances despite being outshot.

Power Play Regression: Colorado's power play has struggled recently, going 0-for-16 over their last six games. Positive regression is expected, and the Stars' tired legs could lead to more penalty opportunities for the Avalanche.

Betting Indicators

• Schedule Disadvantage: Dallas is playing its seventh game in 11 days, including travel to high altitude.

• Injury Impact: Missing key players Marchment and Seguin, with Hintz questionable, reduces Dallas' offensive threat.

• Power Play Trends: Colorado is due for a bounce-back after a rare dry spell on the man advantage.

• Motivation Factor: Avalanche have revenge on their mind after blowing a lead in their last game and losing their previous matchup against Dallas.

Projections

• Final Score: Avalanche 4, Stars 2

NBA: Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons

Pick: Pistons ML @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Suns Struggling on the Road: Phoenix has been abysmal away from home, winning just 3 of their last 14 road games, and those wins came against weaker teams like Utah, Philadelphia (without key players), and Washington. They’re 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, failing to cover by significant margins in each.

Injury Issues for Phoenix: Without Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic, the Suns are missing critical pieces on both ends of the floor. Their lack of depth is showing, especially in their 26th-ranked net rating on the road over the last 15 games. Scoring has been a major issue for them, putting additional pressure on Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.

Pistons Finding Success at Home: Despite some recent form issues, Detroit has been solid at home, winning 5 of their last 7 games at Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons have played with more hunger and energy, especially against stronger opponents, making them a good underdog bet here.

Motivational Edge: Detroit appears to be the hungrier team, while Phoenix’s recent form suggests a lack of urgency, especially against teams they should beat.

Betting Indicators

• Phoenix’s Road Struggles: Suns are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games and 13-26-1 ATS overall.

• Detroit’s Home Form: Pistons have won 5 of their last 7 at home, playing competitively even in losses.

• Injury Impact: Absences of Beal and Nurkic weaken Phoenix's scoring options and interior defense.

• Trend Against the Spread: Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, often losing by multiple possessions.

Projections

• Final Score: Pistons 111, Suns 106