Friday Night in Vegas: BrownBagBets Celebrates & Strategizes

Friday in Vegas – The Board Has Arrived:
It’s Friday in Las Vegas, and the BrownBagBets key board members have officially arrived. This weekend is all about celebrating the incredible year we just crushed and laying out the big plans for 2025.

The energy is high, the slate is packed, and the team is ready to combine strategic planning with a little bit of Vegas fun.

Tonight’s Slate – Packed with Opportunities:

• College Basketball:

  • Key matchups across MAC play, Big Ten action, and more provide plenty of value for the night.

• NBA and NHL:

  • Both leagues bring strong matchups to round out a packed Friday of betting opportunities.

Final Thought – Let’s Get It:
Tonight’s slate is stacked, and with the BrownBagBets team live from Vegas, the momentum is in full swing. Whether it’s college hoops, NBA, or NHL, let’s stay disciplined, execute the system, and make this weekend one to remember.

Let’s crush it!

NCAAB: Ohio at Akron
Pick: Over 158 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:
The line here is moving fast - but fear not, we like it up to 164. This MAC rivalry always delivers competitive matchups, and the 2024 edition is no different. Both Ohio and Akron are pushing the tempo this season, resulting in high-scoring affairs. Ohio has been a consistent over team at 10-4-1, while Akron mirrors that with a 10-4 mark to the over, highlighting their ability to exceed totals regularly. Both offenses are among the most efficient in the MAC, combining sharp shooting and pace to produce points in bunches. Expect this clash to maintain a rapid pace and flirt with the total throughout the game.

Betting Indicators:

• Strong Over Trends: Ohio is 10-4-1 to the over, while Akron is 10-4, making both teams reliable in clearing totals this season.

• Offensive Efficiency: Both teams rank near the top in the MAC in offensive efficiency, showcasing their ability to consistently put points on the board.

• High Tempo: The uptempo style of both programs contributes to increased possessions and opportunities for scoring.

Projection:
Akron 84, Ohio 81

NCAAB: Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) at St. Joseph’s

Pick: St. Joe’s +3 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

St. Joe’s at Home: The Hawks have been solid on their home court, boasting a 7-3 SU record and shooting an impressive 55% from the floor and 76% from the free-throw line. While they’ve lost two of their last three games, they rebounded strongly with a dominant win over Loyola Chicago, showcasing their ability to bounce back in critical moments.

Turnover Concerns: VCU’s top-25 defense thrives on ball pressure, and St. Joe’s turnover struggles could be a problem. However, St. Joe’s experienced backcourt gives them a chance to handle the Rams’ aggressive style, particularly with guards who excel in defending the perimeter.

VCU’s Shooting Woes: The Rams have struggled from beyond the arc, and their offensive inefficiency could limit their ability to pull away. This plays into the hands of a St. Joe’s team that can defend well at home and has enough offensive firepower to keep things tight, especially if they can limit their turnovers.

Betting Indicators

• Home Court Advantage: St. Joe’s is 7-3 SU at home, and their shooting percentages are significantly higher on their home floor.

• VCU ATS Trends: The Rams have dominated this matchup recently, covering six of the last seven, but their offensive inconsistency leaves them vulnerable on the road.

• Turnover Battle: While VCU forces turnovers, St. Joe’s experienced guards could mitigate this advantage, making the +3 spread attractive.

• Shooting Efficiency: St. Joe’s superior shooting percentages from the field and free-throw line provide value as a home underdog.

Projection: St. Joe’s 68, VCU 66

NCAAB: Robert Morris at Green Bay

Pick: Robert Morris -4.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Green Bay’s program is in complete disarray under head coach Doug Gottlieb, whose controversial decisions have seemingly derailed the team. The suspension and subsequent injury of Anthony Roy, once the nation’s leading scorer, have left the Fighting Phoenix winless since November. Their current 13-game losing streak has been particularly ugly, with the last eight Division I opponents all beating them by double digits. This team has shown no signs of improvement, especially on the defensive end, where they’ve struggled to contain even average offenses.

Robert Morris, on the other hand, is trending upward. The Colonials have won five of their last seven games, including a quality win over Wright State. Head coach Andy Toole has his team playing solid basketball on both ends, and they’ve been competitive in conference play. Against a Green Bay team in freefall, Robert Morris has the balance and discipline to take care of business on the road.

Betting Indicators:

• Green Bay’s Losing Streak: 13 straight losses, with the last eight by double digits.

• Robert Morris Form: Colonials have won five of their last seven games.

• Green Bay ATS Woes: Green Bay has failed to cover in most games during their losing streak.

Projection: Robert Morris 72, Green Bay 63

NCAAB: DePaul at Georgetown

Pick: Under 141.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Ed Cooley has turned Georgetown into a grind-it-out defensive team, prioritizing pace control and forcing opponents into tough shots. The Hoyas are allowing opponents to shoot just 38.2% from the field, ranking 14th nationally in defensive efficiency. This defensive improvement poses significant challenges for a DePaul team that has been wildly inconsistent offensively. Prior to their inspired outing against Marquette, the Blue Demons had shot under 40% from the floor in five consecutive games, highlighting their offensive struggles.

Georgetown has leaned heavily on defense to stay competitive, evidenced by their remarkable streak of ten consecutive under results. While DePaul’s recent games have trended over, the matchup against a disciplined and stingy Hoyas defense makes this an ideal under play.

Betting Indicators:

• Georgetown’s Under Streak: The Hoyas are under in 10 straight games.

• DePaul’s Offensive Struggles: The Blue Demons shot under 40% in five of their last six games.

• Defensive Efficiency: Georgetown allows only 38.2% shooting, ranking 14th in the country.

Projection: Georgetown 68, DePaul 64

NCAAB: Iowa at UCLA
Pick: Iowa +7 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:
The Hawkeyes come into this matchup with significant offensive firepower, averaging 89 points per game while shooting an efficient 51% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. While their defense struggled mightily against USC, allowing repeated attacks at the rim, UCLA lacks the explosiveness and size to replicate that kind of dominance. The Bruins have been reeling with four straight losses, marred by dismal three-point shooting (28.6% during the skid) and inconsistent guard play, including a slumping Dylan Andrews who has been relegated to the bench. Iowa's offensive efficiency and ability to spread the floor make them a strong play as a 7-point underdog.

Betting Indicators:

• Offensive Edge: Iowa is averaging 89 points per game and shooting 51% from the floor, far surpassing UCLA's recent offensive struggles.

• UCLA's Decline: The Bruins have lost four straight games, shooting just 28.6% from deep and lacking offensive rhythm.

• Recent Trends: Iowa has demonstrated consistent scoring ability, even against quality opponents, while UCLA is struggling with multiple facets of their game.

Projection:
Iowa 80, UCLA 76

NCAAB: Air Force at Fresno State
Pick: Fresno State -3.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
Fresno State appears to be trending in the right direction, covering in four of their last five games. Home court advantage should play a big role in this matchup between two struggling Mountain West teams. Air Force, on the other hand, has failed to cover in four of their last five and is a meager 3-8 ATS when the spread is under 9 points. Their offensive struggles are glaring, with a limited scoring output that has seen them lose 14 games, only once by fewer than three points. With Fresno beginning to find its footing in conference play, the Bulldogs are a strong bet to secure their first Mountain West win of the season.

Betting Indicators:

• Fresno’s ATS Momentum: The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and performing better as conference play progresses.

• Air Force’s Struggles: The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and are 3-8 ATS in tighter spreads.

• Head-to-Head Trends: Air Force has struggled to win or keep games close against better-organized opponents.

Projection:
Fresno State 65, Air Force 58

NHL: Las Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes
Pick: Knights ML @ +140 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
The Golden Knights are in top form, earning points in 10 of their last 11 games and tied for the second-most goals scored in the NHL this season (113). Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, tallying four or more goals in five of their last six games. Adin Hill has been reliable in net, posting a 2.20 GAA and a .920 save percentage in his last five starts. With an impressive 11-4-1 road record, Vegas thrives away from home, using their structured play and opportunistic style to frustrate opponents.

Carolina, on the other hand, has been inconsistent at home, losing two straight at PNC Arena. Defensively, the Hurricanes have struggled, allowing an average of 3.14 goals per game over their last seven contests. While they generate plenty of shots, their finishing issues against elite teams have been evident, as seen in recent losses to playoff contenders.

Betting Indicators:

• Vegas’ Road Dominance: The Golden Knights boast one of the best road records in the league at 11-4-1.

• Carolina’s Defensive Vulnerabilities: The Hurricanes have allowed 3+ goals in five of their last seven games.

• Current Form: Vegas has points in 10 of their last 11 games and has scored four or more goals in five of their last six.

Projection:
Golden Knights 4, Hurricanes 3

NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

Pick: Sabres ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Penguins are in disarray, losing seven of their last eight games and dropping five straight on the road. Pittsburgh made a bold move by waiving GK Tristan Jarry after their midweek loss to Seattle, signaling turmoil in their lineup. Alex Nedeljkovic now steps into the primary goaltending role but has struggled with a 3.40 GAA and .886 save percentage, numbers nearly identical to Jarry’s. Despite the star power of Sidney Crosby, the Pens seem unable to gain traction during this slump.

On the other hand, Buffalo has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in net with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. The young goaltender delivered a stellar performance on Wednesday, stopping 35 of 37 shots in a 4-2 win over Carolina. Forward Ryan McLeod added a hat trick to energize the Sabres’ offense. Buffalo’s ability to perform in high-pressure situations gives them an edge over the reeling Penguins, especially at home.

Betting Indicators:

• Pittsburgh’s Poor Form: Penguins have lost 7 of their last 8 games and are on a 5-game road losing streak.

• Goaltending Issues: Alex Nedeljkovic’s 3.40 GAA and .886 save percentage are concerning for Pittsburgh.

• Buffalo’s Resurgence: The Sabres are coming off a strong win, led by a standout performance from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in net.

Projection: Buffalo 4, Pittsburgh 2

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks
Pick: Timberwolves +5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:
The Timberwolves look to avenge their worst loss of the season, a 26-point defeat to the Knicks, and this game provides a solid opportunity for redemption. Anthony Edwards leads the charge for Minnesota, averaging 25.9 points per game and providing consistent offensive firepower. Despite a recent narrow loss to the Golden State Warriors, the Timberwolves have proven capable of competing with top-tier teams.

The Knicks face injury concerns, with Donte DiVincenzo out and Karl-Anthony Towns questionable due to a thumb injury. Additionally, their center remains sidelined until late January, impacting New York's interior defense and rebounding. The Knicks have been inconsistent recently, going 5-5 over their last 10 games and coming off an overtime battle against the 76ers. Fatigue could play a role, especially against a motivated Minnesota squad.

Betting Indicators:

• Injury Impact: The Knicks are missing key players, which weakens their defensive and offensive efficiency.

• Revenge Factor: The Timberwolves seek to redeem themselves after a season-worst loss to New York.

• Recent Form: Minnesota has shown resilience, while New York's recent results have been inconsistent.

Projection:
Timberwolves 112, Knicks 110

NBA: Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls
Pick: Nikola Vucevic Over 18.5 Points / Wager: 3%
Pick: Mark Williams Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds / Wager: 2%

Analysis:
Nikola Vucevic has been alternating between overs and unders on his points prop in recent games, and tonight's matchup against the Hornets offers a prime opportunity for him to get back on track. Charlotte recently traded away their big men, leaving them vulnerable in the paint. Additionally, the Hornets are coming off a taxing West Coast road trip, which may further impact their defensive intensity. Vucevic's ability to exploit mismatches in the post and stretch the floor should allow him to capitalize in this favorable spot.

Mark Williams is thriving for the Hornets, coming off a dominant 31-point, 13-rebound performance against the Jazz. Over his last six games, Williams has cleared the 27.5 combined points and rebounds mark four times. In two prior meetings with Chicago this season, he totaled 24 and 32 points and rebounds, despite being limited by injury in the first game. With the Bulls owning the eighth-worst defensive rating and allowing the second-most rebounds per game, Williams should have another productive outing in the paint.

Betting Indicators:

• Nikola Vucevic's Matchup: Charlotte's weakened interior defense post-trade and fatigue from travel.

• Mark Williams' Form: Four overs in his last six games and a history of success against Chicago.

• Chicago’s Defensive Struggles: Ranked near the bottom in defensive rating and rebounding allowed.

Projection:

• Nikola Vucevic: 22 Points

• Mark Williams: 18 Points, 12 Rebounds

NBA: Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
Pick: Grizzlies -2.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:
Memphis looks to replicate Wednesday's strong showing against San Antonio, where they controlled the second half en route to a comfortable win. Zach Edey’s presence adds size and physicality that can challenge Victor Wembanyama and force him to exert more effort defensively. The Grizzlies' balanced offensive attack has been consistent, helping them cover four of their last five games, including three straight on the road. Memphis thrives with a day of rest, covering 17 of 27 in such spots this season.

On the flip side, the Spurs have struggled against divisional opponents (1-6 ATS) and in home games recently, covering just three of their last ten. When they fail to cover, they often lose big, with six of those home losses coming by 11+ points. The Spurs have covered only once in their last five games, regularly falling well short of the spread by significant margins.

Betting Indicators:

• Memphis Road Form: Grizzlies have covered three straight on the road.

• Spurs ATS Struggles: San Antonio is 1-6 ATS in the division and 3-7 ATS in their last ten at home.

• Trend of Big Losses: Spurs have failed to cover by wide margins in recent games.

Projection:

• Final Score: Memphis 112, San Antonio 104