Sunday in Vegas: NFL Divisional Round, EPL, NCAAB & More

Sunday in Vegas – Back at It After a Big Day:

It’s another Sunday in Vegas, and we’re riding high after crushing our NFL plays yesterday. With momentum on our side, today’s slate is stacked with action across NFL, EPL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and more.

Momentum and Focus:

Big slates like today remind us why the BrownBagBets system thrives: disciplined plays, calculated bankroll management, and a commitment to finding value across sports. Yesterday’s NFL success showcased our ability to execute, and today we’re ready to do it again.

Today’s Slate – A Packed Sunday Lineup:

NFL Divisional Round:

• Rams at Eagles

• Ravens at Bills

EPL Matchups:

• Southampton vs. Nottingham Forrest

• Tottenham vs. Everton

• Manchester City vs. Ipswich Town

College Basketball:

• Illinois at Michigan State highlights another strong day of NCAAB action.

NBA and NHL:

• Lakers at Clippers in the NBA and Rangers at Canadiens in the NHL round out a diverse Sunday slate.

Final Thought – Let’s Keep Building:

Sundays like these are made for disciplined execution. From NFL playoff action to EPL, NCAAB, NBA, and NHL, the opportunities are endless. Let’s stay focused, stay sharp, and keep the momentum rolling as we crush another day in January.

Let’s get after it!

English Premier League: Tottenham at Everton

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Everton’s Low-Scoring Trend: The Toffees remain stuck in a rut, winless in their last six Premier League matches. Their offensive struggles are glaring, boasting the league’s second-worst attack. However, their defense has held firm, conceding fewer goals than all but the top four teams. With their matches averaging just 2.05 goals per game, Everton’s games are consistent low-scoring affairs, as evidenced by seven straight under results.

Tottenham’s Stagnating Offense: Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs have cooled off significantly after a bright start. They’ve scored only five goals across their last six competitive outings and remain winless in their last five EPL matches. This lack of firepower, combined with Everton’s defensive solidity, sets the stage for another low-scoring battle.

Historical Indicators: Three of Tottenham’s last six games have seen under 2.5 goals, while Everton’s last seven have all stayed under the mark. With only eight goals scored in those seven Everton matches, the under looks like strong value.

Betting Indicators

• Everton’s Goals Average: Matches average just 2.05 total goals.

• Tottenham’s Scoring Decline: Only five goals in their last six matches.

• Under Trends: Everton under in seven straight, Tottenham under in three of their last six.

Projections

• Final Score: Tottenham 1, Everton 0

English Premier League: Southampton at Nottingham Forest

Pick: Forest -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Forest’s Strong Season: Nottingham Forest has solidified themselves as one of the Premier League’s surprise teams, recently holding Liverpool to a 1-1 draw. Their strength at the City Ground has been evident, with Forest conceding only eight goals at home all season.

Southampton’s Away Struggles: The Saints have been woeful away from home, scoring just five goals in their road matches this season. Their inability to threaten offensively, combined with their defensive frailty, makes them a prime candidate for another heavy defeat against a superior Forest side.

Form Advantage: Forest has the momentum and confidence from their recent form, while Southampton’s relegation struggles and lack of offensive firepower leave them vulnerable.

Betting Indicators

• Home Defensive Dominance: Forest has allowed just eight home goals all season.

• Southampton’s Road Woes: Only five away goals scored.

• Recent Form: Forest recently tied Liverpool and has performed well against top teams.

Projections

• Final Score: Nottingham Forest 3, Southampton 0

English Premier League: Manchester City at Ipswich Town

Pick: Manchester City -1.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

City’s Resurgence: After a mid-season slump, Manchester City has regained its form with a five-match unbeaten streak. Pep Guardiola’s squad is clicking at the right time and looks poised to maintain their dominance against Ipswich.

Ipswich’s Disadvantage: The Tractor Boys face a scheduling disadvantage, playing Brighton on Thursday while City enjoyed extra rest after a Tuesday match. With just two full days of recovery, Ipswich is unlikely to match City’s intensity and quality.

Mismatch in Quality: City’s superior talent, tactical discipline, and squad depth create a substantial gap against an Ipswich side that lacks the firepower or defensive stability to compete.

Betting Indicators

• City’s Unbeaten Streak: Five consecutive unbeaten matches.

• Rest Advantage: Ipswich played on Thursday, while City had extra rest.

• Historical Dominance: City thrives against lower-tier opponents.

Projections

• Final Score: Manchester City 3, Ipswich Town 1

NFL Divisional Round: Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Under 43 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 36.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Pick: Saquon Barkley to Score 2+ Touchdowns @ +330 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Eagles -6 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

The Rams enter this matchup with momentum on defense, allowing just 33 points across their last four games involving starters. However, the combination of cross-country travel, cold weather, a short week, and facing the league’s most complete team in Philadelphia spells trouble. The Eagles’ elite defense ranks No. 1 in total and pass defense, while their run-first offense controls tempo and limits possessions, making a lower total likely.

The Eagles’ offensive line dominated the Rams’ front seven in their prior meeting, and that trend should continue. Dallas Goedert remains a focal point in Philadelphia’s passing game, especially against the Rams’ defense, which struggles to contain tight ends. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley has a favorable matchup against an average Rams goal-to-go defense, and the Eagles’ game plan may lean heavily on his production.

Philadelphia has a clear advantage across the board: roster depth, preparation, and game management. Expect the Eagles to control the pace, win comfortably, and keep this a lower-scoring affair.

Betting Indicators

• Defensive Prowess: The Eagles rank No. 1 in total and pass defense and have allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL this season.

• Tempo Control: Philadelphia runs the ball more than any other team in the league, limiting the number of possessions and naturally leading to lower-scoring games.

• Tight End Matchup: The Rams have allowed the third-most targets, receptions, and the fourth-most yards to tight ends this season, making Dallas Goedert a high-probability play to exceed his receiving prop.

• Rushing Edge: Saquon Barkley scored twice against the Rams earlier this season and will likely be leaned on heavily in goal-line scenarios given his track record and the Eagles’ offensive tendencies in cold-weather playoff games.

• Rams Disadvantages: Traveling cross-country on a short week and playing in frigid conditions against a superior opponent further exacerbates Los Angeles’ challenges.

Projection

Final Score: Eagles 27, Rams 13

• Philadelphia dominates the line of scrimmage, controls time of possession, and leans on their defense to stifle the Rams’ limited offense.

• Barkley capitalizes on red-zone opportunities, while Goedert finds plenty of room against a vulnerable Rams defense.

• The game stays under the total, as both teams run the ball frequently and limit explosive plays.

NFL Divisional Round: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Pick: Bills +1 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 55.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 3%

Pick: Josh Allen Anytime TD / Wager: 2%

Pick: James Cook Anytime TD / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Buffalo’s dominance at home this season, coupled with key defensive players returning from injury, makes them a compelling play as underdogs. The Bills are 9-0 in Buffalo, with multiple blowout victories, and their defense ranked 12th in yards allowed per game during the regular season. Baltimore’s convincing Week Four win over the Bills was largely due to Derrick Henry’s performance, but Buffalo’s improved defensive personnel will limit similar success. Ravens WR Zay Flowers is unlikely to play, leaving the Ravens’ passing game slightly hampered.

Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability will be a major factor, especially in a cold Orchard Park environment, as the Bills have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks in the past. Jackson has consistently topped this rushing total in playoff games and has been heavily utilized on the ground in recent weeks.

Josh Allen’s ability to step up in critical moments is highlighted by his playoff rushing touchdowns and willingness to run when needed. With the Ravens struggling to defend running backs in the passing game, James Cook’s dual-threat abilities make him a viable scoring option. Buffalo’s offense will lean on Cook to control the clock and exploit mismatches in the Ravens’ zone coverage.

Betting Indicators

• Home Dominance: Buffalo is 9-0 at home this season, with multiple blowout wins by margins exceeding 20 points.

• Quarterback Rushing Trends: Lamar Jackson has hit over 55.5 rushing yards in six of his seven career playoff games, and Josh Allen has scored 15 rushing touchdowns in his last two seasons, including playoffs.

• Defensive Improvements: Buffalo’s defense is healthier than in their Week Four loss to Baltimore, and the Ravens are without key coverage players, including Patrick Queen.

• Mismatch Opportunities: The Ravens have struggled to defend running backs in the passing game, setting up opportunities for James Cook to capitalize.

Projection

Final Score: Bills 24, Ravens 20

• Buffalo reasserts their home-field dominance with a balanced offensive approach.

• Lamar Jackson keeps Baltimore competitive with his legs, but the Bills’ defensive adjustments and Josh Allen’s playmaking ultimately tip the scale.

• Look for both Allen and Cook to make key contributions in the red zone, while Buffalo’s defense limits the Ravens’ offensive ceiling.

NCAAB: Nebraska at Maryland

Pick: Over 145.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Maryland -7.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Maryland thrives at home, going over the total in seven of their last eight games in College Park. The Terps excel offensively in this environment, cutting down turnovers, running the floor effectively, and getting to the free-throw line. Maryland’s offense is capable of a dominant performance, with the potential to score near 90 points against a Nebraska team struggling defensively. Nebraska has played three consecutive overs, allowing 288 points across those games, and their defensive issues should allow Maryland to dictate the pace and flow of the game.

While Maryland’s defense has been inconsistent, opening the door for a potential backdoor cover, the Cornhuskers’ struggles against Maryland’s ball pressure defense could prevent them from keeping this game close. Nebraska ranks 224th in quick points allowed off turnovers, while Maryland ranks 39th in forcing such situations. The Terps should capitalize on these opportunities while pushing the tempo, making the over a strong complement to Maryland's spread.

Betting Indicators

• Maryland Home Trends: The Terps are over in 7 of their last 8 home games, with the only unders occurring on higher totals than 145.5.

• Nebraska Defensive Woes: The Cornhuskers have allowed 96 PPG on average over their last three contests, leading to three straight overs.

• Maryland Ball Pressure: The Terps rank 39th nationally in forcing breakaway steals, while Nebraska’s offense ranks 224th in avoiding them.

• Nebraska’s Shooting Edge: The Cornhuskers are a decent three-point shooting team, which could exploit Maryland’s recent struggles defending the perimeter.

Projection

Final Score: Maryland 85, Nebraska 74

NCAAB: Illinois at Michigan State

Pick: Michigan State -2.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Over 155.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

This matchup between Illinois and Michigan State pits two of the Big Ten's top teams against each other, showcasing high-powered offenses and solid defensive fundamentals. Michigan State's dominance at home (9-0 SU this season) plays a key role in this game, as does their impressive free-throw shooting at 84%—a potential difference-maker in a tight contest. Illinois, while strong at 75% from the stripe, faces the challenge of handling MSU's depth and high-tempo attack in East Lansing.

Both teams boast potent offenses, with the Illini averaging 87.3 PPG (5th in the nation) and the Spartans not far behind at 81.8 PPG. MSU has embraced a fast-paced style, led by senior G Jaden Adkins, utilizing a deep rotation to keep the energy high throughout the game. Illinois counters with their own scoring weapons, including standout freshman Kasparas Jakucionis, who returned from injury to drop 21 points in a midweek blowout win over Indiana.

Expect another lively game in East Lansing, where last year’s meeting ended 88-80 in favor of the Spartans. Both teams are capable of pushing the pace, and the home-court advantage tilts the edge toward Michigan State.

Betting Indicators

• Home Advantage: Michigan State is undefeated at home (9-0 SU) and is favored in a short spread.

• Free-Throw Edge: The Spartans’ 84% free-throw shooting trumps Illinois' 75%, a critical factor in close games.

• Scoring Trends: Illinois has scored 80+ points in six of their last seven games, while Michigan State averages 81.8 PPG.

• Historical Precedent: Last year’s matchup at East Lansing ended with 168 total points (88-80 MSU).

Projection

Final Score: Michigan State 85, Illinois 80

NCAAB: Youngstown State at Green Bay

Pick: Youngstown -7.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Green Bay’s struggles have reached toxic levels under HC Doug Gottlieb, whose leadership has reportedly caused friction within the team. Their leading scorer, Anthony Roy, remains sidelined with an ankle injury, exacerbating a 14-game losing streak. The Phoenix have also been abysmal against the spread, going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games. Friday’s collapse against Robert Morris, where they allowed a 28-0 second-half run, epitomizes their season’s challenges.

Youngstown State, meanwhile, is contending in the Horizon League at 6-3. With a veteran roster bolstered by transfers like Nico Galette (Sacred Heart) and Ty Harper (Eastern Washington), the Penguins bring experience, scoring depth, and stability. Against a demoralized Green Bay squad, Youngstown should have no trouble covering this manageable spread.

Betting Indicators

• Recent ATS Trends: Green Bay is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games, while Youngstown is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 as a favorite.

• Head-to-Head Performance: Youngstown has covered in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams.

• Scoring Disparity: Youngstown averages 81.6 PPG (ranks 17th nationally), compared to Green Bay’s 63.7 PPG (ranks 346th).

• Green Bay Home Struggles: The Phoenix are 1-8 ATS at home this season.

Projection

Youngstown State 84, Green Bay 65

NHL: Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils

Pick: Devils -1.5 @ +140 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The Devils' recent three-game slump is less concerning than it appears, with two losses coming in OT or a shootout. New Jersey remains a strong team, particularly with Jacob Markstrom (21-8-5) in net. Markstrom’s stellar December (8-1-0, 1.30 GAA, .937 SV%) showcases his ability to lock down opponents, and he’s already defeated the Senators this season, stopping 30 of 31 shots in a 3-1 victory on October 17.

The Senators, on the other hand, have struggled mightily with Anton Forsberg in goal. Forsberg has posted a 3.63 GAA and a .861 save percentage in January starts, and Ottawa has lost five straight games with him in net. On the road against a Devils team motivated to snap its skid, the Sens are likely to falter again.

Betting Indicators

• Devils Puck Line Performance: New Jersey is 5-2 ATS in its last seven wins.

• Head-to-Head Dominance: The Devils have won three straight meetings against Ottawa, covering the puck line in two of those victories.

• Forsberg's Struggles: Ottawa is 0-5 in Forsberg’s last five starts, with opponents scoring 3+ goals in each game.

• Markstrom at Home: Markstrom is 10-3-2 at home this season, with a 1.85 GAA in his last six starts at Prudential Center.

Projection

New Jersey Devils 4, Ottawa Senators 2

NHL: New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens

Pick: Under 6.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Canadiens are in the second half of a back-to-back, with Sam Montembeault starting against Toronto on Saturday. This sets the stage for sensational rookie Jakub Dobes to start Sunday. Dobes has been electric in his first four NHL starts, allowing just four goals on 107 shots, including wins against top-tier opponents. His calm and composed play has made a significant impact, though Sunday would mark his first home start, which could bring some added pressure.

The Rangers, meanwhile, bring a strong defensive structure to this game. They allow just 2.62 goals per game, ranking among the league's best. Igor Shesterkin is expected to be in net, and while he's been solid all season, his recent form shows some vulnerability, making it more likely that this will be a low-scoring, tight-checking affair.

Montreal has struggled offensively, ranking in the bottom third of the NHL in goals per game. Combined with a potentially fatigued lineup and Dobes' impressive early form, the under looks like a strong play in this matchup.

Betting Indicators

• Low-Scoring Trends: The Canadiens have gone under in five of their last seven home games.

• Dobes' Stellar Start: Jakub Dobes has a 1.00 GAA and a .963 save percentage in his first four NHL games.

• Rangers on the Road: The Rangers have hit the under in 11 of their 19 road games this season.

• Back-to-Back Effect: Montreal has gone under in four of its last five second games of a back-to-back.

Projection

New York Rangers 3, Montreal Canadiens 2

NBA: Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers

Pick: Clippers -4 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Clippers have consistently dominated this rivalry in recent years, and their ability to play at their preferred pace and enforce defensive discipline gives them a clear edge in this matchup. The Lakers have struggled against top-tier teams, posting a poor record ATS against top-10 NBA teams this season.

The Clippers are thriving at home and have been a bettor's favorite, particularly in divisional matchups. They boast a 14-6 ATS record at home and are 6-1 ATS in division games. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 3-9 ATS against top-10 teams, emphasizing their struggles against elite competition.

Adding to the appeal is the Clippers' recent form at Crypto.com Arena, where they’ve covered 13 of their last 16 home games. The Lakers, on the other hand, have failed to cover in three of their last four games and continue to show inconsistency against strong defensive units like the Clippers.

Betting Indicators

• Clippers at Home: 13-3 ATS at home since November 4 and 9-2 ATS as a home favorite.

• Division Dominance: Clippers are 6-1 ATS in division games this season.

• Lakers' Struggles: Lakers are 3-9 ATS against top-10 NBA teams and 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.

• Head-to-Head Edge: Clippers have won and covered five straight home games against the Lakers.

Projection

Los Angeles Clippers 116, Los Angeles Lakers 108

NBA: Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers

Pick: Bulls -5.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This is a prime spot to fade the Trail Blazers, who have struggled mightily at home and will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back. Portland’s confidence has been visibly shaken as they’ve endured blowout losses in recent games, and their inability to keep pace offensively or defensively against faster-paced teams like the Bulls is a glaring weakness.

The Bulls’ defense isn’t great, but that shouldn’t be an issue against a Blazers offense that has been inconsistent and lacking firepower. Chicago will also benefit from a rest advantage, a situation in which they’ve excelled this season, going 6-1 ATS. After being embarrassed by the Hornets, the Bulls are likely to be focused and motivated to bounce back.

Betting Indicators

• Rest Advantage: Bulls are 6-1 ATS when holding a rest advantage.

• Blazers at Home: Portland has consistently failed to defend its home court, losing several games by wide margins.

• Blazers in Back-to-Backs: Portland has struggled in the second leg of back-to-backs, often showing fatigue and lack of cohesion.

• Chicago’s Offense: The Bulls have the scoring firepower to overwhelm the Blazers, particularly given Portland’s poor defensive performance in recent weeks.

Projection

Chicago Bulls 118, Portland Trail Blazers 107

The Bulls’ ability to capitalize on Portland’s fatigue, combined with their superior offensive firepower, makes this a strong play to cover the spread.