Thanksgiving Week Gratitude and MNF Spotlight

Kicking Off Thanksgiving Week with Gratitude

As we head into Thanksgiving week, we’re taking a moment each day to reflect on what we’re thankful for—because amidst the grind, there’s plenty to appreciate. To kick things off, today we’re thankful for this community.

Whether you’ve been with us from the beginning or just joined the BrownBagBets journey, it’s your engagement, trust, and belief in our process that makes everything we do worthwhile. Sharing wins, learning from losses, and tackling each day together is what sets this community apart. From the loyal followers to the sharp new voices chiming in, you’re the heartbeat of what we’ve built, and for that, we’re endlessly grateful.

Yesterday’s Results: Another .500 Day

Another day of hovering around the break-even mark, with NCAAB struggles continuing to frustrate us. But as always, our focus is on the long game. A slow patch in basketball isn’t enough to shake our confidence in the adjustments we’re making. What matters most is learning, evolving, and preparing for a strong finish to November.

Tonight’s Slate: MNF and More Basketball

Let’s turn the page and focus on today’s action, which gives us plenty of opportunities to make a move:

Monday Night Football: Ravens at Chargers

• Baltimore Ravens head to LA to take on the Chargers, and there’s a lot to like about this matchup.

• The Ravens bring one of the league’s best defenses into a primetime game, and our model highlights multiple angles—both sides and props—that align with our process. If you’re looking for value in tonight’s NFL showdown, you’ll want to keep an eye on our plays here.

NCAA Basketball

• While the season hasn’t been as kind to us as we’d like so far, we’re not backing down. With early-season trends starting to solidify, we’re finding stronger edges and looking to capitalize on Monday’s slate.

NBA and NHL

• The NBA and NHL continue to offer consistent options, with both leagues providing key matchups that present value in spreads, totals, and player props. We’ve identified a few spots in particular that stand out in tonight’s slate.

Positive Vibes for the Week Ahead

As we kick off Thanksgiving week, let’s keep the positive vibes rolling. We’re thankful for this community and the chance to do what we love every day. With a big Monday night slate ahead, we’re ready to make the most of it.

Stay disciplined, trust the process, and let’s make it a winning day. Here’s to starting the week strong!

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Ravens -2.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Ravens Over 26.5 Total Points / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Baltimore Ravens are in an ideal bounce-back spot following a frustrating offensive showing last week. Despite being held to 16 points against a tough Cleveland defense, they moved the ball efficiently, averaging 6.1 yards per play, but were undone by turnovers and missed field goals. This week, they face a Chargers defense that, while ranking highly in points allowed, has shown cracks, giving up 27 points to the Bengals last week.

The Ravens' offense, led by Lamar Jackson, is the most efficient unit in the NFL, combining an explosive rushing attack with timely passing. The Chargers' inability to generate consistent pressure and their vulnerability to big plays make them an exploitable matchup for Baltimore.

On the other side, the Ravens' defense is poised to pressure Justin Herbert relentlessly, given the Chargers' offensive line struggles and their lack of a consistent rushing attack to alleviate that pressure. Baltimore’s ability to control the game on both sides of the ball makes the spread and team total enticing plays.

Key Trends:

• Ravens:

  • 6-2 outright in Monday Night Football games during the Lamar Jackson era.

  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents.

  • Have scored 27+ points in 7 of their last 10 games against defenses ranked outside the top 10.

• Chargers:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog.

  • Have allowed 27+ points in three of their last four games against teams with winning records.

  • Justin Herbert has been sacked 10 times in the last three games, highlighting O-line struggles.

Projected Outcome:

The Ravens' balanced offensive attack and top-tier defense will prove too much for the Chargers, who lack the consistency to keep pace. Lamar Jackson thrives in primetime and will deliver a big performance, both through the air and on the ground, to secure the victory and hit the team total.

Projected Score: Ravens 30, Chargers 20

NCAAB: Ball State vs Eastern Kentucky
Pick: Eastern Kentucky -2 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This neutral court matchup in Florida presents an interesting contrast in styles, with both teams favoring an uptempo pace but differing in efficiency. Ball State has struggled to find consistency early this season, sitting at 1-3 ATS and shooting an underwhelming 43% from the field. Eastern Kentucky, on the other hand, has excelled at capitalizing on their opportunities, boasting a 3-0 ATS record and showcasing impressive offensive metrics.

The Colonels' balanced scoring attack, with four players averaging double figures, gives them a significant edge over Ball State, which relies heavily on a single scorer. Additionally, Eastern Kentucky’s shooting efficiency both inside the arc (53%) and beyond it (36.3%) suggests they can exploit Ball State’s defense, particularly in a high-possession game.

Key Trends:

• Eastern Kentucky:

  • 3-0 ATS this season.

  • Ranked 36th nationally in effective field goal percentage.

  • 5-2 ATS in neutral site games dating back to last season.

• Ball State:

  • 1-3 ATS this season.

  • 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning records.

  • Shooting only 43% from the field, with limited offensive contributions outside their leading scorer.

Projected Outcome:

Eastern Kentucky’s efficiency on offense and depth in scoring options make them the stronger team in this matchup. Ball State’s pace increase could play into the Colonels’ hands, allowing them to capitalize on transition opportunities and outpace the Cardinals late in the game.

Projected Score: Eastern Kentucky 77, Ball State 71

NCAAB: Miami (OH) at Siena
Pick: Miami (OH) -3 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup features two teams with contrasting strengths, but Miami (OH) holds clear advantages that should swing the game in their favor. The RedHawks have leaned heavily on the three-point shot, ranking 12th nationally in three-point scoring rate. This plays directly into a key weakness of Siena’s defense, which ranks 354th in three-point field goal percentage defense. Miami’s ability to exploit this mismatch is a significant factor in the projection.

Additionally, Miami’s strength on the offensive glass and its ability to create turnovers gives them control over second-chance opportunities and disrupts Siena’s offensive rhythm. While Siena has been solid ATS, covering nine of their last ten games, this particular matchup appears to favor Miami's style of play.

Key Trends:

• Miami (OH):

  • Ranks 12th nationally in three-point scoring rate.

  • Covers at a 63% clip when favored on the road in their last 15 games.

  • Effective rebounding team, particularly on the offensive glass.

• Siena:

  • 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, but has faced fewer perimeter-oriented offenses.

  • Ranks near the bottom (354th) nationally in defending the three-point line.

  • Struggles against teams that dominate in offensive rebounding and second-chance scoring.

Projected Outcome:

Miami’s ability to generate offense from beyond the arc and capitalize on second-chance opportunities should help them cover this short spread. Siena’s defensive struggles, particularly against perimeter shooting, and inability to control the boards make Miami a strong play in this early tip-off.

Projected Score: Miami (OH) 74, Siena 66

NCAAB: Boise State at South Dakota State
Pick: Under 149.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup features two disciplined teams that excel in defensive efficiency and prefer slower tempos. Boise State has a balanced offense but thrives in controlling pace, averaging 67.2 possessions per game, while South Dakota State’s deliberate style slows the game further at 65.8 possessions per game. Both teams are strong defensively, with Boise State excelling in limiting opponent scoring efficiency and South Dakota State ranking in the top 20 for Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD).

Key Metrics:

• Boise State:

  • AdjO: 109.5 (51st nationally)

  • AdjD: 96.7 (43rd nationally)

  • Tempo: 67.2 possessions per game (200th nationally – prefers a slower pace).

• South Dakota State:

  • AdjO: 103.6 (79th nationally)

  • AdjD: 94.2 (20th nationally)

  • Tempo: 65.8 possessions per game (246th nationally – one of the slowest paces).

Key Trends:

• Boise State allows an opponent effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of just 47.5%, ranking in the top 40 nationally.

• Both teams have struggled to push totals above 140 points in similar matchups this season.

• South Dakota State’s offensive reliance on drawing fouls (39.5% of possessions) could slow the game further if free throws become a focus.

• Under has hit in 4 of South Dakota State’s last 5 games, and Boise State has played to an average total of 137 points this season.

Projected Outcome:

Expect a tightly contested, methodical game with both teams leaning on their defensive strengths. South Dakota State’s preference for slower possessions combined with Boise State’s ability to limit second-chance points and force contested shots points toward a low-scoring affair.

Projected Score: Boise State 71, South Dakota State 67

NCAAB: University of Connecticut (UConn) at Memphis
Pick: UConn -8 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Maui Invitational tips off with a marquee matchup between UConn and Memphis. UConn has established itself as a top-tier program with a balanced, efficient offense and a stifling defense. Memphis, while talented, may struggle to keep up with the Huskies' efficiency and discipline on both ends of the court. Additionally, betting markets show strong professional support for UConn, indicated by a significant delta between ticket percentage (public action) and cash percentage (sharp action).

Key Trends:

• KenPom Rankings:

  • UConn: Ranked 2nd nationally with elite metrics on both offense (AdjO: 117.5, 6th) and defense (AdjD: 91.2, 7th).

  • Memphis: Ranked 31st nationally, with strong offense (AdjO: 110.3) but a defense outside the top 40 (AdjD: 95.8).

• Betting Movement: A significant 55% cash-to-ticket delta supports UConn, highlighting sharp action on the Huskies at -8.

• Memphis Struggles: The Tigers rank outside the top 40 defensively and may struggle against UConn’s efficient shooting (55.2% eFG). Memphis’s pace (70.2 possessions/game) could backfire against UConn’s disciplined defense, which limits opponents to 46.8% eFG.

Projected Outcome:

Expect UConn’s potent combination of offensive firepower and defensive lockdown to dictate the game. While Memphis may push the tempo, UConn’s ability to control possessions and capitalize on defensive lapses gives them a clear edge.

Projected Score: UConn 75, Memphis 67
Total Points: 143

Recommendation:

Lay the points with UConn (-8), as their balance on both ends and sharp market backing make this a favorable spot.

NCAAB: Penn State vs Fordham
Pick: Under 153.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This Sunshine Slam semifinal between Penn State and Fordham features two teams with contrasting efficiencies. Penn State's balanced attack and disciplined defense set the tone for a methodical, lower-scoring game. The total opened high at 153.5, but projections from KenPom and other models hover closer to 147 points. Penn State’s strong defensive metrics and Fordham’s relatively average offensive profile make the under a solid play here.

Key Trends:

• KenPom Rankings:

  • Penn State: Ranked 44th nationally with strong metrics in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (109.5, 51st) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (96.7, 43rd).

  • Fordham: Ranked 162nd, with middling metrics on both ends (AdjO: 98.3, AdjD: 102.5).

• Pace: Both teams play at a moderate pace. Penn State averages 67.2 possessions per game (200th nationally), while Fordham is slightly faster at 69.1 (137th). A controlled tempo favors the under.

• Defensive Advantages:

  • Penn State: Limits opponents to a 47.5% eFG and dominates the glass with a defensive rebounding rate of 77.3% (19th nationally).

  • Fordham: Struggles offensively, with a 49.2% eFG and inconsistent shooting.

• Scoring Predictions: KenPom estimates a 147-point total (Penn State 81, Fordham 66), aligning closely with other models that project scores well below the 153.5 total.

Projected Outcome:

Penn State’s disciplined approach on defense and Fordham’s offensive inefficiencies suggest a game that should fall short of the inflated total. Expect Penn State to control the tempo and limit Fordham’s scoring opportunities, keeping the game below the line.

Projected Score: Penn State 80, Fordham 67
Total Points: 147

Recommendation:

Play the under 153.5, as the data supports a lower-scoring game, with both teams likely struggling to hit the lofty total.

NCAAB: Colorado at Michigan State
Pick: Colorado +8 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The line movement from 5.5 to 8 in favor of Michigan State offers value on Colorado, a strong team with the ability to keep this competitive. Both squads are elite defensively, as reflected in their KenPom rankings. While Michigan State’s balanced approach and rebounding prowess give them an edge, Colorado’s efficiency on offense and ability to score in transition make +8 an attractive play, especially on a neutral court.

Key Trends:

• KenPom Rankings:

  • Michigan State: Ranked 13th nationally, excelling on defense (AdjD: 88.0, 10th) and boasting a solid offense (AdjO: 109.5, 17th).

  • Colorado: Ranked 23rd with an efficient offense (AdjO: 110.8, 11th) and a solid defense (AdjD: 88.7, 18th).

• Defensive Matchup:

  • Michigan State: Limits opponents to 47.5% eFG and ranks 19th in defensive rebounding rate (77.3%).

  • Colorado: Allows an eFG% of 50.5% but counters with strong defensive positioning and transition play.

• Scoring Projections: KenPom predicts a Michigan State victory, 72-67, which aligns with a tighter game and suggests +8 offers solid value.

• Line Movement: Opened at Michigan State -5.5 but has moved to -8. The inflated number creates an opportunity to back a capable Colorado team.

Projected Outcome:

This matchup sets up as a low-scoring, defensive battle. While Michigan State may ultimately prevail, Colorado’s offensive efficiency and ability to adapt defensively should keep them within striking distance. On a neutral court in the Maui Invitational, the Buffaloes have a strong chance to cover.

Projected Score: Michigan State 71, Colorado 68
Total Points: 139

Recommendation:

Take Colorado +8, as the spread has moved too far, presenting an opportunity to back an elite team in a competitive matchup.

NCAAB: Auburn vs. Iowa State
Pick: Under 147 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This neutral-site clash between two highly ranked teams in the Maui Invitational sets the stage for a defensive battle. Both teams are elite defensively and rank among the top in KenPom's metrics, which favors a slower pace and disciplined play. Sharp movement on the total line further supports the case for the under, as professionals anticipate a grind-it-out game.

Key Trends:

• KenPom Rankings:

  • Auburn: Ranked 3rd nationally with elite metrics on both ends of the floor (AdjO: 117.5, 6th; AdjD: 91.2, 7th).

  • Iowa State: Ranked 7th with solid defensive efficiency (AdjD: 95.8, 45th) but slightly less potent offensively (AdjO: 110.3, 31st).

• Scoring Projections:

  • KenPom projects a 72-70 Auburn victory, with a total of 142 points, comfortably under the posted line of 147.

• Defensive Strengths:

  • Auburn limits opponents to a 46.8% eFG while dominating the glass (77.3% defensive rebounding rate).

  • Iowa State's defense is similarly stingy, allowing just a 47.5% eFG.

• Neutral Court Factor:

  • Neutral-site games often lead to lower scoring due to unfamiliar shooting conditions and early-season jitters.

Projected Outcome:

Both teams are well-coached, and their defensive identities should take center stage in this matchup. Expect disciplined play, slower possessions, and a game that trends under the total.

Projected Score: Auburn 71, Iowa State 69
Total Points: 140

Recommendation:

Bet Under 147, as sharp action aligns with defensive metrics and projections for a tight, low-scoring