NFL Sunday, College Hoops, and More After a Steady Saturday

Another Steady Day Sets the Stage for NFL Sunday

Yesterday was another .500 day for the BrownBagBets community, finishing 5-5 in NCAAF while hitting a 4% college basketball play to keep us right around even. No losses, tier credits earned, and another day of consistent action that aligns with our long-term approach.

At BrownBagBets, we’re always focused on the bigger picture. Even on days where we break even, the rewards go beyond just the cash—we’re stacking up tier credits with our preferred platforms, which convert into real perks and free dollars. That’s the beauty of the BrownBagBets system: every play counts toward something greater, whether it’s building bankrolls or building rewards.

Today’s Slate: NFL Sunday and More

It’s NFL Week 12, and today’s action gives us another full slate of games to attack, alongside college basketball and more. Here’s what we’re focusing on:

1. NFL Week 12

• A Full Day of Football:

  • With playoff races tightening up, today’s matchups bring no shortage of storylines and opportunities. From divisional showdowns to under-the-radar value plays, we’re digging into spreads, totals, and props to find edges across the board.

• Spotlight Games:

  • We’ve got our eyes on a few key matchups where line movement and betting splits align with our indicators. Keep an eye out for props tied to quarterback performance and defensive matchups.

2. NCAA Basketball

• Feast Week may be over, but the college basketball board remains packed with value plays. As the early season unfolds, we’re continuing to capitalize on mismatches where oddsmakers haven’t caught up to team performance trends.

3. NHL and NBA

• Both leagues have full Sunday slates, offering great opportunities to complement our football and basketball focus. From NHL team trends to NBA injury adjustments, we’re finding the spots where market inefficiencies are most pronounced.

The Long Game: Building a Winning Month

Another day without losses is another step forward in our quest to win November. While it’s been a grind at times, our approach ensures we’re always building—whether it’s bankrolls, tier credits, or adjustments to our betting indicators. With a packed NFL Sunday, we’re primed to push further into positive territory as the month winds down.

Let’s stay disciplined, trust the process, and make today count. NFL Sunday awaits, and we’re ready.

English Premier League: Liverpool at Southampton
Pick: Liverpool -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Liverpool, under manager Arne Slot, are in exceptional form, leading the Premier League with 28 points from 11 matches. They have won nine of these games, scoring 21 goals and conceding only six, showcasing both offensive prowess and defensive solidity.

Southampton, conversely, are struggling at the bottom of the table, having secured only four points from 11 matches. Their recent form includes a 2-0 loss to Wolves, and they have been plagued by injuries to key players like Aaron Ramsdale and Jan Bednarek.

Key Trends:

• Liverpool's Dominance: The Reds have won 11 of their last 13 encounters with Southampton across all competitions, drawing one and losing one in that sequence.

• Southampton's Defensive Woes: The Saints have the second-highest expected goals conceded in the league, indicating a vulnerable defense.

• Liverpool's Away Strength: Liverpool have taken 13 out of 15 possible points on the road and have the best defensive record away from home with the fewest goals conceded.

Projected Outcome:

Given the stark contrast in form and squad strength, Liverpool are poised to secure a comfortable victory. Their balanced attack and resilient defense should overpower Southampton's frailties.

Projected Score: Liverpool 3, Southampton 0

NFL: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins -7 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

The Dolphins are finding their stride as Tua Tagovailoa continues his dominance against New England. His remarkable 77.7% completion rate since returning from concussion protocols is a testament to the efficiency of Miami's offense. Tua is 6-0 SU and ATS against the Patriots, and the Dolphins' balanced attack, led by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, poses significant challenges for New England's man-heavy defensive scheme.

The Patriots, while seeing some offensive improvement under Drake Maye, have yet to score 20 points in any road game this season. Miami’s defense, reinvigorated by the return of DT Zach Sieler, will likely cause issues for the Patriots’ offensive line. Combine that with Miami’s formidable home-field advantage, and the Patriots’ historical struggles in Miami (2-10 ATS in their last 12 trips), this matchup heavily favors the Dolphins.

Key Trends:

• Tua vs. Patriots: Tagovailoa is 6-0 SU & ATS in his career against New England.

• Patriots Road Struggles: New England is 0-4 ATS on the road this season and hasn’t scored more than 20 points in any of those games.

• Miami at Home: The Dolphins have a top-tier home-field advantage, and their offense averages 32.8 PPG at home this season.

• Head-to-Head History: The Patriots are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 visits to Miami and 2-9 SU in the last 11.

Projected Outcome:

With Miami’s offense firing on all cylinders and New England’s ongoing struggles to keep up offensively, this game should see the Dolphins comfortably cover the spread. Expect Miami’s big-play receivers to exploit the Patriots’ man-heavy defense and deliver a decisive win.

Projected Score: Dolphins 31, Patriots 17

NFL: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Pick: Commanders -10.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Commanders enter this game with significant advantages on both sides of the ball. Their defense has developed into a top-tier unit, thriving at creating pressure and shutting down opposing passing attacks. While they have struggled against the run, Dallas' inability to establish a consistent ground game negates this weakness. The Cowboys seem deflated, coming off a demoralizing loss to Houston, and have shown an alarming trend of blowout defeats, particularly at home.

Washington’s offense, led by a healthier Jayden Daniels, should capitalize on a depleted Cowboys defensive front. With three offensive linemen and TE Jake Ferguson nursing injuries from Monday’s loss, the Cowboys are vulnerable. The Commanders’ pass rush, spearheaded by Dante Fowler Jr., Frankie Luvu, and Dorance Armstrong, is primed to disrupt backup QB Cooper Rush and stall any offensive rhythm.

Key Trends:

• Commanders’ Momentum: Washington has been dominant against struggling offenses and now faces a Cowboys team that scored only 10 points last week.

• Double-Digit Favorites: Double-digit favorites are unbeaten ATS this season, a strong indicator of covering success in mismatches.

• Cowboys’ Struggles: Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and has failed to score more than 10 points in two of its last three contests.

• Washington at Home: The Commanders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at FedExField when favored by more than a touchdown.

Projected Outcome:

The Commanders’ superior physicality and rested roster should overwhelm a struggling Cowboys squad. Washington is set to dominate in the trenches, control the clock, and create mismatches in all phases of the game. Expect a comfortable win for the home team in what could turn into a statement game for Washington.

Projected Score: Commanders 27, Cowboys 10

NFL: Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Colts +7.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup offers a prime opportunity to fade the red-hot Lions, who are coming off another dominant win but now face an increasingly competitive Colts team. Detroit’s defense, which has been a strength, took another significant hit with the loss of Alex Anzalone to a broken forearm, adding to their growing list of injuries that already includes Aidan Hutchinson. With their annual Thanksgiving game looming, this could also be a natural letdown spot for Detroit.

The Colts, on the other hand, are trending up after a thrilling comeback win over the Jets. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson, who is now 6-1 ATS in games he has started, showcased why he was a top draft pick, and his dynamic play should keep Indianapolis competitive here. The Colts' defense has also been solid, giving them a strong chance to stay within the number.

Key Trends:

• Anthony Richardson’s Impact: Colts are 6-1 ATS in games he starts, demonstrating his value.

• Detroit’s Injuries: The Lions are without key defensive players, including Alex Anzalone and Aidan Hutchinson, leaving the unit vulnerable.

• Situational Spot: Detroit has a short week with its Thanksgiving game next, a potential distraction.

• Line Value: The market enthusiasm for Detroit may have inflated this spread, with the line likely two points too high.

Projected Outcome:

The Colts’ improving offense and solid defensive play should make this a competitive game. Look for Detroit to win narrowly, but Indianapolis to cover the spread.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Pick: Vikings -3.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receptions / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Vikings -3.5
The Minnesota Vikings enter this divisional matchup on a hot streak against the spread (4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Chicago and 7-3 ATS this season). Their defensive scheme, led by Brian Flores, has been relentless, ranking among the league leaders in blitz rate. This spells trouble for rookie QB Caleb Williams, who has struggled significantly against pressure, ranking 30th in efficiency against the blitz. The Bears' offensive line remains a major liability, further compounding these issues.

Minnesota also benefits from superior coaching, with Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores creating mismatches on both sides of the ball. The Bears, meanwhile, are dealing with continued inconsistency under Matt Eberflus, who is 2-5 ATS in divisional games at Soldier Field. After a devastating last-second loss to the Packers, Chicago is primed for another emotional letdown, a pattern seen earlier this season after their defeat against Washington.

DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receptions
Under new play-caller Thomas Brown, DJ Moore has emerged as the focal point of Chicago's passing game. Last week, Moore caught all seven of his targets, all coming on short, quick-developing routes. Facing Minnesota's blitz-heavy defense, Brown is likely to stick to a similar approach, dialing up high-percentage throws to get the ball out of Caleb Williams' hands quickly. Moore’s ability to create separation on intermediate routes makes him the Bears’ best option to move the chains.

Key Trends:

• Vikings ATS: Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. Chicago and 15-8-3 ATS outdoors since 2021.

• Bears Offensive Woes: Caleb Williams is averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt with zero passing TDs over his last four games.

• DJ Moore’s Role: Moore has seen a boost in targets under Thomas Brown, with seven receptions on seven targets last week.

• Blitz Impact: Williams ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency when blitzed, a key factor given Minnesota’s aggressive defensive approach.

Projected Outcome:

Minnesota’s defensive front will overwhelm Chicago’s offensive line, forcing Caleb Williams into hurried decisions. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ balanced offense, led by Kirk Cousins, should find success against the Bears' defense, which lacks consistent playmakers. DJ Moore will see plenty of volume as Chicago leans on quick passes, but the Vikings’ superior coaching and execution will secure a comfortable cover.

Projected Score: Vikings 24, Bears 13
Projected Receptions for DJ Moore: 6-7 catches

Projected Score: Lions 27, Colts 23

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Pick: Under 42 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Bucky Irving Over 52.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Game Total (Under 42):
The Giants' decision to start Tommy DeVito at quarterback signals a shift in focus to the future, potentially prioritizing draft positioning. Historically, the offense under DeVito has been anemic, averaging just 12.4 points per game in his starts. While the Buccaneers' defense isn't elite, it is more than capable of containing this limited Giants offense. On the flip side, Tampa Bay is dealing with its own issues, particularly along the offensive line, as key tackle Tristan Wirfs is unlikely to play due to an MCL sprain. Without Wirfs, the Bucs' offensive efficiency could take a significant hit, especially in the trenches against a capable Giants D-line. Additionally, the absence of a fully healthy Mike Evans could limit Tampa's ability to stretch the field, further reducing scoring opportunities. This game is shaping up to be a grind-it-out affair, with both teams struggling to sustain drives.

Player Prop (Bucky Irving Over 52.5 Rushing Yards):
Bucky Irving has shown flashes of dominance, averaging at least 4.9 yards per carry in seven of his ten appearances this season. His recent performance before the bye week—73 rushing yards on 13 carries against a stout San Francisco defense—showcases his ability to maximize opportunities. With the Giants surrendering an NFL-high 5.3 yards per carry and ranking at the bottom of the league in explosive run plays allowed, Irving is in a prime spot. New York's poor tackling metrics further boost the likelihood of Irving ripping off chunk plays. If the Buccaneers can establish a lead, as expected against this struggling Giants squad, the game script should favor a heavier workload for Irving, providing ample opportunity for him to surpass this relatively low prop total.

Key Trends:

• Under Trends:

  • The Giants have hit the under in 7 of their last 10 games where they started a backup quarterback.

  • Buccaneers games have averaged just 41 total points over the past five weeks, even with a healthy offense.

• Bucky Irving Trends:

  • Irving has eclipsed this rushing prop in 70% of games where he received at least 10 carries.

  • The Giants allow the highest explosive run rate in the NFL and have the third-most missed tackles this season.

Projected Outcome:

Expect a low-scoring, defensive-heavy contest. Tampa Bay's superior roster will allow them to control the game flow, creating opportunities for Irving to thrive on the ground. However, the Giants' offensive limitations and Tampa's potential injuries on the offensive line suggest points will be at a premium.

• Projected Score: Buccaneers 20, Giants 10

• Bucky Irving Rushing Yards: 67

NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Pick: Adam Trautman Over 7.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%
Pick: Trevon Moehrig Over 7 Tackles + Assists / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Adam Trautman Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
The Raiders have struggled mightily against tight ends recently, allowing a staggering 35 receptions for 397 yards to the position over their past three games. While Denver doesn't target tight ends heavily, Adam Trautman is the clear starter and continues to see opportunities. Trautman ran more routes than Nate Adkins last week, maintaining his involvement in the offense. Despite a quiet game last week, Trautman has totaled 123 receiving yards across his last four games, demonstrating his ability to clear this low threshold with a single catch.

With Russell Wilson spreading the ball around and the Raiders' vulnerabilities at covering tight ends, Trautman should have a great chance to surpass this mark early.

Trevon Moehrig Over 7 Tackles + Assists
Trevon Moehrig is in an ideal spot to rack up tackles. The Broncos are one of the most favorable matchups for opposing safeties, generating high tackle counts due to their run-heavy offense and reliance on short-to-intermediate passes. Moehrig has played 100% of defensive snaps in recent weeks, often lining up closer to the line of scrimmage, which has led to an impressive tackle rate.

With 50 tackles in his last six games, Moehrig has been highly productive, and this matchup offers the perfect environment for him to maintain that pace. Expect him to be heavily involved in stopping the run and making key plays in the secondary.

Key Trends:

• Adam Trautman: Averaging over 30 yards per game across his last four outings, despite inconsistent usage.

• Raiders vs. Tight Ends: Las Vegas has allowed an average of 11.6 catches and 132 yards per game to tight ends over their last three games.

• Trevon Moehrig’s Role: Moehrig is averaging 8.3 tackles + assists per game over his last six outings.

• Broncos vs. Safeties: Denver generates the most tackles for opposing safeties in the league, driven by their offensive tendencies.

Projected Outcome:

Adam Trautman should capitalize on a favorable matchup against a struggling Raiders defense, easily clearing his modest receiving prop. Meanwhile, Trevon Moehrig’s high tackle volume, enhanced by Denver’s run-first offense, makes his tackles + assists total a solid play.

Projected Stats:

• Adam Trautman: 2 catches, 15-20 yards

• Trevon Moehrig: 9 tackles + assists

NFL: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seahawks +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Seahawks appear undervalued here, especially after their impressive road win over San Francisco. Despite the market leaning toward Arizona, Seattle is the stronger team in several key areas, particularly with an improving defense and a more balanced offense. The Cardinals rely heavily on their run game, but Seattle’s recent defensive performances suggest they’re capable of limiting Arizona's ground attack. Meanwhile, the return of key players like RT Abe Lucas and WR D.K. Metcalf has stabilized Seattle’s offense, giving Geno Smith more time and weapons to exploit matchups against Arizona's inconsistent defense.

Key Trends:

• Seattle’s Defensive Surge: The Seahawks have improved their run defense significantly, holding Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams to well below their season averages in the last two games.

• Arizona’s Road Struggles: The Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against divisional opponents.

• Seattle’s Home Advantage: Despite the line suggesting otherwise, Seattle has been strong at home historically and shouldn’t be a home underdog in this spot.

• Recent Momentum: Geno Smith’s performance last week (78.1% completion rate, game-winning drive) indicates that Seattle’s offense is trending upward.

Projected Outcome:

Seattle matches up well against Arizona’s strengths, particularly in stopping the run. With a healthier roster and the energy of playing at home, the Seahawks should control the tempo and force Arizona into uncomfortable passing situations. Expect Seattle to win outright, making the +1.5 a valuable play.

Projected Score: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Eagles -2.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the league, riding a six-game winning streak and averaging over 30 points per game in their last five contests. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, with quarterback Jalen Hurts distributing the ball effectively and A.J. Brown continuing to be a dominant force in the passing game. Defensively, the Eagles have been stellar, holding opponents to 18 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games (excluding a fluky fumble-return TD by the Jaguars). Their secondary has limited opposing quarterbacks to a 78.9 passer rating, ranking fourth-best in the league, while allowing only 173.2 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the NFL.

The Rams, while competitive, have struggled to find consistency. Matthew Stafford has been solid but faces a tough challenge against Philadelphia’s aggressive pass rush and sound secondary. The Rams’ defense, though capable at times, is unlikely to slow down an Eagles offense that is as balanced as it is explosive.

Key Trends:

• Eagles Dominance on the Road: The Eagles have covered in six of their last seven road games and won outright in their last visit to SoFi Stadium against the Rams, holding the ball for nearly 38 minutes.

• Rams Struggles vs. Contenders: The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning records.

• Extra Rest Advantage: The Eagles come into this game well-rested, having had extra days to prepare following their Thursday night win over Houston.

Projected Outcome:

Philadelphia’s offensive efficiency, coupled with their ability to control the clock and stifle opposing quarterbacks, gives them a clear edge. Expect the Eagles to impose their will on both sides of the ball, covering this modest spread in a game that could be close early but ultimately tilts their way.

Projected Score: Eagles 27, Rams 20

NCAAB: St. John's vs Georgia
Pick: St. John's -6.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This game aligns well with a play on St. John’s, which has been one of the more reliable ATS teams early in the season at 5-1. The Red Storm bring a disciplined defensive approach that has made them a standout in early action, and they rank highly in efficiency metrics, particularly on the defensive end. Georgia has been inconsistent, and their offense struggles against teams with strong perimeter defense like St. John's.

St. John’s defense has proven capable of stifling teams, as seen in their ability to limit opponents’ effective field goal percentage and generate turnovers. Georgia will need an uncharacteristically strong shooting night to keep this within the number, which seems unlikely given their struggles against comparable opponents.

Key Trends:

• ATS Performance: St. John’s is 5-1 ATS this season, demonstrating their ability to cover spreads comfortably.

• KenPom Rankings: St. John’s defense is in the Top 50, while Georgia’s offense sits in the middle of the pack.

• Projections: Multiple models project St. John’s to win by at least 9 points, providing value on the current line.

Projected Outcome:

St. John’s defensive prowess and consistency on both ends of the court should allow them to control this game. Georgia has struggled in games against strong defensive teams, and this matchup likely exposes those deficiencies further. Expect St. John’s to pull away late and cover.

Projected Score: St. John’s 78, Georgia 68

NCAA - 2 Team Moneyline Parlay:

Pick: South Florida ML + South Dakota State ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

South Florida at Wright State:

Wright State is an offensively driven team but severely lacks defensive capability. The Raiders are allowing opponents to shoot a staggering 56% from the floor, and their transition defense ranks near the bottom nationally. South Florida thrives in fast-paced games and looks to exploit those defensive shortcomings, particularly in transition. Additionally, Wright State’s recent success shooting 43.1% from beyond the arc may regress against South Florida’s strong perimeter defense, which limits opponents to just 29.5% from deep.

South Dakota State at Duquesne:

Duquesne continues to struggle, entering this neutral-site matchup in the Cayman Islands winless on the season. Their offensive inefficiencies have been glaring, with the Dukes shooting under 48% from the field and a dismal 61.2% from the free-throw line. In contrast, South Dakota State excels in key areas: they are strong on the offensive glass, guard the perimeter effectively, and are the more consistent and disciplined offensive team. The Jackrabbits’ ability to dominate key facets of the game gives them a clear edge.

Key Trends:

• South Florida:

• Wright State allows 81.3 PPG, ranking among the worst defenses nationally.

• South Florida has covered the spread in four of its last six games against teams with a losing record.

• South Dakota State:

• Duquesne is 0-3 SU and ATS this season, struggling to stay competitive in all matchups.

• South Dakota State has won seven of its last nine neutral-site games outright.

Projected Outcome:

• South Florida takes control with their pace and defense, exploiting Wright State’s weak transition game.

• South Dakota State dominates on the glass and takes advantage of Duquesne’s offensive struggles.

Projected Scores:

• South Florida 79, Wright State 72

• South Dakota State 74, Duquesne 65

NCAAB: Oklahoma State at Nevada
Pick: Under 145.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This game presents a strong case for the under due to the combination of pace, defensive metrics, and scoring tendencies. Both teams operate at moderate to slow tempos, with Nevada’s methodical offensive pace standing out. Oklahoma State’s solid defensive efficiency and ability to protect the ball should further suppress high-scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Nevada’s reliance on 3-point shooting introduces variability, as a cold shooting night could drastically lower the total.

While both teams are efficient offensively, Oklahoma State’s defensive depth and Nevada’s slower offensive approach suggest fewer total possessions. Additionally, Nevada’s high free-throw reliance can slow the pace and disrupt offensive flow, even if it leads to occasional scoring bursts.

Key Metrics (via KenPom):

1. Adjusted Efficiency (Points per 100 possessions):

   • Oklahoma State Defense: 98.9 (above average)

   • Nevada Offense: 113.8 (efficient)
     This creates a clash between Nevada’s offensive efficiency and Oklahoma State’s defensive discipline.

2. Pace (Avg. Possession Length):

   • Oklahoma State Offense: 15.4 seconds

   • Nevada Offense: 18.3 seconds
     Both teams lean towards a slower pace, which correlates to fewer total possessions and lower scoring.

3. Shooting Efficiency (Effective FG%):

   • Nevada Offense: 59.3% (excellent, but unsustainable)

   • Oklahoma State Offense: 49.1% (below average)
     Nevada’s shooting efficiency could regress, especially against a defense like Oklahoma State’s.

4. 3-Point Reliance:

   • Nevada’s high 3P% (48%) introduces volatility. If shots don’t fall, the game will lean heavily under.

5. Bench Usage:

   • Oklahoma State utilizes its bench significantly (42.5%), which can help maintain defensive intensity throughout the game.

Projected Outcome:

Given the slower pace and the emphasis on defense, especially from Oklahoma State, this game is likely to fall short of the total. Unless Nevada has a lights-out shooting night from beyond the arc, expect a grind-it-out affair with limited scoring runs.

Projected Score: Oklahoma State 70, Nevada 68

NCAAB: FAU vs Seton Hall
Pick: FAU ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup favors FAU, a team that has consistently shown resilience and execution under pressure. The disparity in public betting trends highlights sharp money favoring FAU to cover, as a significant majority of the cash is backing them despite relatively balanced play distribution. FAU’s balanced attack and disciplined play give them the edge in what could be a tighter game than the spread suggests.

Seton Hall has struggled offensively, evidenced by their dismal performance against Vanderbilt and an uninspiring 54-point output against Wagner. Their inconsistent scoring and inability to capitalize on possessions make them a risky side against a well-coached FAU team.

Key Trends:

• Betting Analysis: FAU has attracted 90% of the cash on the spread, signaling sharp money confidence, despite only 54% of the total bets backing them.

• Seton Hall Offensive Woes: Seton Hall managed just 54 points against Wagner and looked overwhelmed offensively in a blowout loss to Vanderbilt.

• FAU Efficiency: The Owls rank in the top tier nationally in offensive efficiency and pace, making them a tough matchup for a Seton Hall team struggling to find its rhythm.

• Sharp Money Confidence: Money movement has solidified the market's trust in FAU as the side to back.

Projected Outcome:

FAU’s ability to execute on both ends of the court and Seton Hall’s lack of offensive firepower should result in a comfortable FAU victory. Expect the Owls to control the tempo and grind out a decisive win.

Projected Score: FAU 74, Seton Hall 66

NCAAB: Drake at Vanderbilt
Pick: Over 143.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup between Drake and Vanderbilt is primed for a high-scoring affair. Both teams bring strong offensive efficiency, as evidenced by advanced metrics from KenPom. Drake’s offense, while careful with turnovers, generates opportunities by maximizing possession value. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt thrives with a quick pace, boasting an above-average time of possession per play, which should elevate the tempo of this game.

Drake’s ability to control the ball and execute efficiently aligns well with Vanderbilt’s preference for an up-tempo style, creating a recipe for plenty of points. Both teams have shown offensive versatility, and the likelihood of a fast-paced matchup makes this total appealing.

Key Trends:

• Offensive Efficiency: Both teams rank in the top half of adjusted efficiency ratings per KenPom, indicating capable offenses.

• Pace: Vanderbilt’s pace is above average, with a quick time of possession that fuels higher-scoring games.

• Drake’s Turnovers: Drake’s low turnover rate keeps possessions alive and maximizes scoring chances.

• Historical Totals: Drake’s last three games have averaged a combined score over 145, while Vanderbilt has been involved in totals over this mark in four of their last six.

Projected Outcome:

Both teams will lean on their offensive strengths and push the tempo. Expect Drake to execute consistently while Vanderbilt’s pace sets the tone for a back-and-forth affair. The total of 143.5 feels low considering the efficiency and style of both squads.

Projected Score: Vanderbilt 78, Drake 74

NHL: Utah Hockey Club at Toronto Maple Leafs
Pick: Maple Leafs -1 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Utah impressed in their Saturday game against Pittsburgh, but they’re now on the second leg of a back-to-back with a significant downgrade in goal. With Connor Ingram sidelined, Jaxson Stauber is expected to make his season debut. Stauber, who has just six NHL appearances and limited experience, faces a tough test against a Maple Leafs team that is highly efficient offensively, even without Auston Matthews.

Toronto, meanwhile, will counter with Anthony Stolarz in net. Stolarz has been stellar in his starts this season, boasting a 2.18 GAA and a .927 save percentage. The Leafs’ ability to limit Utah's offensive opportunities and capitalize on defensive lapses gives them a significant edge.

Key Trends:

• Back-to-Back Struggles: Utah is 1-3 in the second game of a back-to-back this season, with fatigue showing particularly in defensive lapses.

• Goaltender Mismatch: Jaxson Stauber's lack of NHL experience contrasts starkly with Anthony Stolarz's elite numbers this season.

• Leafs’ Defensive Edge: Toronto has tightened defensively in recent games, allowing fewer than three goals in four of their last five outings.

Projected Outcome:

Even without Auston Matthews, Toronto’s depth and defensive structure should overwhelm a tired Utah squad with an inexperienced goaltender. The Maple Leafs are likely to control possession and exploit Utah’s fatigued defense, leading to a comfortable win.

Projected Score: Maple Leafs 4, Utah Hockey Club 2