Thanksgiving Gratitude: Trusting the Process and Winning the Day

Trust the Process—The Blueprint Is Within

A very wise individual once said: “You know what to do, It’s inside of you all along.”

Yesterday brought a 4-5 result—not the winning day we hoped for, but far from a collapse. A day like that is the perfect example of what makes the BrownBagBets philosophy so essential. In this game, you don’t rise or fall based on the outcomes of a single day; you succeed because you stay disciplined, you trust your process, and you work your plan.

For us, that plan never wavers. Every pick, every adjustment, every analysis stems from a foundation we’ve built over years of grinding and refining our approach. The tools we need for success have always been there—it’s simply about leaning into them, trusting what’s inside, and executing with confidence.

Why Our Approach Thrives in Tough Stretches

When results don’t break your way, lesser bettors panic. They chase losses, abandon their principles, and fall victim to the emotional highs and lows of gambling. At BrownBagBets, that’s not how we operate.

1. We Play the Long Game

A 4-5 result might seem frustrating on the surface, but here’s what we know: it’s just one small chapter in the story of the month. November has tested us, but we’re here to win the month, not the day.

2. Every Data Point Matters

Every win reinforces what’s working. Every loss reveals something to improve. Yesterday wasn’t a setback—it was part of the refinement process. We analyze each outcome, identify trends, and fine-tune our approach to deliver sharper plays moving forward.

3. We Build Resilience Through Discipline

The essence of the BrownBagBets mindset is discipline. We don’t chase losses, we don’t overextend, and we don’t let one tough day dictate the next. This is why we’re confident every time we approach a new slate of games—because the foundation is solid.

Thanksgiving Week Gratitude: Confidence in Our System

As part of our Thanksgiving Week reflections, today we’re thankful for the system we’ve built. It’s not flashy, and it doesn’t rely on streaks or luck—it’s built on hard work, data-driven insights, and the ability to weather any storm.

What makes our system so valuable isn’t just that it produces wins; it’s that it gives us confidence and clarity, even when the results are mixed. The tools we need for success have always been here, and we’re grateful for the clarity they bring.

Today’s Slate: Time to Execute

Today offers us another chance to put that system into action. With a packed schedule across multiple sports, we’re locked in and ready to find the edges:

• College Basketball:
  Feast Week continues, and today’s early and late matchups provide a full day of opportunity. The start of the season is full of inefficiencies, and we’re ready to capitalize.

• NBA and NHL:
  Strong matchups across both leagues present several spots where the numbers align with our indicators. We’ve identified value plays in spreads, totals, and props.

• NCAAF:
  Midweek college football picks continue as we build toward the Thanksgiving weekend slate.

Let’s Win the Day

BrownBagBets was built for weeks like this—when things don’t come easy, but the clarity and confidence in the process never waver. Every play we make is rooted in strategy, and every day we work to sharpen that approach further.

Let’s carry that momentum into today, trust the process, and get back to winning. The answers are already within us—time to execute.

NCAAF: Kent State at Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo -21.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Buffalo comes into this matchup as a strong favorite, riding the momentum of a decisive 37-20 win over Eastern Michigan. The Bulls are bowl-bound and have shown consistent offensive improvement over their last three games. On the other hand, Kent State is winless at 0-11 and has been plagued by inefficiency on both sides of the ball, making this a prime spot for Buffalo to cover the significant spread.

Kent State is limping to the finish line, struggling to find motivation in what has been a historically bad season. Their defensive woes—33 rushing TDs and 24 passing TDs allowed—align perfectly with Buffalo’s strengths, suggesting a lopsided result is likely.

Key Trends:

• Cash and Line Movement:

  • 87% of the cash is on Buffalo, with sharp plays causing the line to move up at many books.

  • Despite heavy public support, professional money continues to back the Bulls, reinforcing confidence in their ability to cover.

• Team ATS Performance:

  • Buffalo: 5-5 ATS this season, with recent performances trending upward.

  • Kent State: 2-9 ATS this season, reflecting their inability to keep games close against competent opponents.

• Over/Under Trends:

  • Buffalo: Seven of their 10 games have gone over the total.

  • Kent State: Six of their 11 games have gone over, primarily due to their inability to stop opposing offenses.

Key Statistics:

• Buffalo’s Offense:

  • The Bulls have been increasingly effective, averaging over 30 points per game in their last three outings.

  • Balanced attack with a strong run game that matches well against Kent State’s porous defense.

• Kent State’s Defense:

  • Ranked among the worst in the FBS, allowing 57% third-down conversions and giving up explosive plays consistently.

  • Unable to contain either the run or the pass, leaving little hope of stopping Buffalo’s offense.

Projected Outcome:

Buffalo has every reason to dominate this game, with a bowl bid on the line and facing a demoralized, winless Kent State team. The Bulls' offense should overwhelm the Golden Flashes, and their defense will capitalize on a Kent State unit struggling to sustain drives.

Projected Score: Buffalo 42, Kent State 13

Recommendation:

Bet Buffalo -21.5, as the Bulls have the motivation, form, and matchup advantages to cruise to a decisive victory.

NCAA Basketball: Detroit at Tulsa
Pick: Tulsa -8.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Tulsa enters this neutral-site game with sharp money driving the line from -7.5 to -8.5, with some books even showing -9.5. The noon tip has attracted significant interest from professionals, with 10% more of the cash on Tulsa compared to the total tickets, indicating strong confidence from sharps.

While Detroit has already tripled its win total from last season, they face a significant setback as their leading scorer will miss the game due to an ankle injury. Tulsa, though 1-4 ATS, has a clear edge in talent and depth in this matchup. Despite the Golden Hurricanes’ offensive struggles, Detroit’s defensive inconsistencies provide an opportunity for Tulsa to dominate.

Key Trends:

• Line Movement: The line opened at -7.5 and has moved to -8.5 and beyond, reflecting sharp action on Tulsa.

• Sharp Money: 10% higher cash percentage compared to tickets shows professional bettors backing Tulsa.

• Detroit’s Road Struggles: Detroit has struggled in neutral and road games historically, compounded by the absence of their leading scorer.

Statistical Matchup:

• Detroit’s Shooting Trends:

  • The Titans are shooting an impressive 41.5% from three over their last three games, a potential weapon to keep this close.

  • However, their free-throw shooting (under 65%) and lack of a key scorer hinder their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

• Tulsa’s Defense:

  • The Golden Hurricanes have allowed teams to exploit their perimeter defense but could see improvement against a Detroit team missing offensive firepower.

• Key Disparity:

  • Detroit has a -4.6-point differential on the season and has struggled to maintain consistency on defense, leaving them vulnerable to a Tulsa team looking for a strong showing.

Projected Outcome:

Tulsa’s ability to exploit Detroit’s defensive weaknesses and the Titans’ inability to compensate without their top scorer should lead to a comfortable win for the Golden Hurricanes. Detroit’s three-point shooting could keep things close early, but expect Tulsa to pull away late.

Projected Score: Tulsa 75, Detroit 64

Recommendation:

Back Tulsa -8.5 with confidence, as the sharp money and matchup advantages favor the Golden Hurricanes in this neutral-site contest.

NCAAB: Southeast Louisiana at Gardner-Webb
Pick: Gardner-Webb ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup in Cancun features two 2-3 teams heading in different directions. Gardner-Webb has faced a significantly tougher schedule, including competitive showings against Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Their experience against higher-caliber opponents positions them well against Southeast Louisiana, whose schedule has been notably lighter. The Runnin' Bulldogs boast one of the Big South’s top defenses, particularly in guarding the perimeter, which could stifle SE Louisiana’s offense.

Key Trends:

• KenPom Rankings: Gardner-Webb is ranked 217th, significantly ahead of SE Louisiana at 257th. Other advanced models show an even larger discrepancy.

• Three-Point Defense: Gardner-Webb ranks second in the Big South in 3-point percentage defense, a critical advantage in neutral-site games.

• Offensive Efficiency: Darryl Simmons II leads the way offensively for Gardner-Webb, shooting an elite 48% from beyond the arc and averaging 15.2 PPG.

• Experienced Leadership: Anthony Selden’s decision to return for another season provides additional stability and scoring for Gardner-Webb.

Statistical Matchup:

• Gardner-Webb’s Defense:

  • Allows a low effective field goal percentage, particularly excelling against three-point shooters.

  • Their ability to limit quality shots will likely force SE Louisiana into contested looks.

• SE Louisiana’s Offense:

  • Struggles to convert high-percentage opportunities against stronger defenses.

  • Likely to face challenges against Gardner-Webb’s disciplined defensive schemes.

• Neutral-Site Dynamics:

  • Gardner-Webb’s battle-tested roster has played in tougher environments this season, giving them an edge in handling the neutral-court setting.

Projected Outcome:

Gardner-Webb’s superior defense and more efficient offense, led by Simmons and Selden, should enable them to control the pace and execute consistently. SE Louisiana’s lack of firepower and struggles against tougher competition make it unlikely they’ll overcome Gardner-Webb’s defensive pressure.

Projected Score: Gardner-Webb 68, SE Louisiana 61

Recommendation:

Take Gardner-Webb ML for a value play, leveraging their stronger overall metrics, battle-tested roster, and clear defensive edge in this neutral-site matchup.

NCAAB: Memphis vs Michigan State

Pick: Memphis +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Memphis is off to a scorching start this season, boasting a 5-0 record both straight-up and against the spread. Led by standout transfers PJ Haggerty (Tulsa) and Tyrese Hunter (Texas), the Tigers have elevated their play significantly. Their performance against UConn, where they shot 55% from the field, was nothing short of remarkable, even in a loss. Michigan State has been inconsistent offensively, and Memphis’s sharp shooting and momentum make them a live dog in this matchup.

Key Trends:

• Memphis is 5-0 ATS this season, showing consistent value for bettors.

• Michigan State is just 2-3 ATS, struggling to meet expectations.

• Memphis’s balanced offense is shooting 52% from the field this season, including 40% from three.

Projected Outcome: Expect Memphis’s offensive firepower and tenacity to keep them in this game and push them to a narrow cover

NCAAB: San Diego State at Creighton

Pick: San Diego State +4.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

San Diego State has had ample rest since Nov. 18, allowing key player Nick Boyd (23 points, 9 rebounds against Gonzaga before cramping) to recover fully. Creighton may be without high-scoring point guard Steven Ashworth (16 PPG, 6.4 APG), a significant blow to their offense. The Aztecs bring strong postseason pedigree, having reached the Final Four two seasons ago and the Sweet 16 last year.

Key Trends:

• San Diego State is 3-1 ATS this season.

• Creighton is 0-2 ATS in games without Ashworth this season.

• Aztecs have covered in 5 of their last 6 as underdogs.

Projected Outcome: San Diego State’s defensive tenacity and full-strength roster edge them closer in this matchup.

Projected Score: Creighton 68, San Diego State 66

NCAAB: Richmond at Louisiana Tech

Pick: Louisiana Tech -6 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Louisiana Tech has been dominant under coach Talvin Hester, starting 5-0 while shooting an impressive 50.8% (24th nationally). Their defense has been just as strong, holding opponents to 39.4% shooting. Big man Daniel Batcho anchors both ends of the court, contributing significantly to their success. Richmond, meanwhile, has struggled offensively, making this a favorable matchup for Louisiana Tech in the Gulf Coast showdown.

Key Trends:

• Louisiana Tech is 3-0 ATS this season.

• Richmond is 1-3 ATS in its last four neutral-site games.

• Louisiana Tech’s defense has held every opponent under 70 points this season.

Projected Outcome: Expect Louisiana Tech’s balanced attack and superior defense to dominate the Spiders.

Projected Score: Louisiana Tech 74, Richmond 65

NCAAB: Oregon at Texas A&M

Pick: Texas A&M -3 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Texas A&M has steadied after their season-opening loss at UCF, thanks to the return of Zhuric Phelps and the continued dominance of guards Wade Taylor IV and Manny Obaseki. Buzz Williams’ squad is balanced and efficient on both ends, showcasing their potential in a decisive win over Ohio State. Meanwhile, Oregon’s recent struggles against weaker teams like Portland and Oregon State raise questions about their consistency and ability to handle a strong Aggies team on the road.

Key Trends:

• Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.

• Oregon has failed to cover against their last two subpar opponents.

• The Aggies’ disciplined defense and efficient backcourt have been key to their early success.

Projected Outcome: Texas A&M should control the tempo and capitalize on Oregon’s offensive inconsistencies to cover the short spread.

Projected Score: Texas A&M 74, Oregon 67

NCAAB: Stanford vs Grand Canyon

Pick: Stanford +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Stanford enters this matchup as a slight underdog but has displayed impressive form under new head coach Kyle Smith. The Cardinal are undefeated at 6-0, showcasing a combination of disciplined defense and consistent scoring. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon, a team with high expectations after advancing to the NCAA Tournament last season, has yet to hit its stride. They remain winless against the spread this season and are coming off consecutive losses to Arizona State and UC Davis.

Key Trends:

Stanford’s Defense:

• The Cardinal have not allowed more than 69 points in a game this season, showcasing defensive discipline.

• Opponents are struggling to find rhythm against Stanford’s size and defensive schemes.

Grand Canyon’s Struggles:

• The Lopes have yet to cover a spread this season, showing inconsistency on both ends of the floor.

• Tyon Grant-Foster’s return has not sparked the expected turnaround, as evidenced by their recent losses.

• Maxime Raynaud’s Dominance:

• The 7-1 forward has been a force for Stanford, averaging 22.8 points and 12.8 rebounds per game, creating matchup nightmares for opponents.

Statistical Matchup:

Offensive Efficiency:

• Stanford’s offense has been balanced, with Raynaud anchoring the inside game and perimeter shooters stepping up when needed.

• Grand Canyon’s offensive efficiency has dipped, particularly against tougher competition.

Defensive Edge:

• Stanford’s defensive metrics, including opponent field goal percentage and rebounding dominance, give them a clear advantage.

Projected Outcome:

Stanford’s defensive consistency and the standout play of Maxime Raynaud make them a solid pick in this matchup. Grand Canyon’s inability to find cohesion early in the season further tilts the scales in favor of the Cardinal.

Projected Score: Stanford 72, Grand Canyon 67

Recommendation:

Take Stanford +1.5 as they continue their strong start to the season behind elite defense and the dominant play of Raynaud. Grand Canyon’s struggles against quality opponents make the Cardinal the better value in this spot.

NCAAB: UTEP at Long Beach State

Pick: UTEP -7 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Long Beach State is in rebuilding mode after losing most of last year’s Big West title team and head coach Dan Monson. New coach Chris Acker inherits a 1-6 team struggling on both ends of the floor. UTEP, averaging 80 points per game with four double-digit scorers, has the offensive firepower to exploit Long Beach State’s young, overmatched roster. The Miners’ slow starts have been an issue, but their talent and depth should allow them to pull away late.

Key Trends:

• UTEP has scored 80+ points in three of their last four games.

• Long Beach State is 0-3 ATS at neutral sites this season.

• Long Beach State ranks near the bottom in defensive efficiency among mid-majors.

Projected Outcome: UTEP’s superior roster and offensive balance will lead them to cover comfortably.

Projected Score: UTEP 82, Long Beach State 68

NHL: Vancouver Canucks at Boston Bruins

Pick: Bruins ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Bruins are thriving under interim coach Joe Sacco, winning two straight games with stellar defense and goaltending. Joonas Korpisalo and Jeremy Swayman have combined to allow just one goal in that span, with Swayman expected to start against a Canucks team that has cooled off after a recent three-game win streak. While Boston’s offense is still finding its rhythm, their defensive consistency gives them the edge in this matchup.

Key Trends:

• Bruins are 2-0 under Joe Sacco, allowing just one goal in two games.

• Canucks are 1-3 in their last four games, struggling offensively.

• Swayman has a 2.18 GAA at home this season.

Projected Outcome:

Boston’s defense and goaltending will stifle Vancouver, securing the win.

Projected Score: Bruins 3, Canucks 1

NHL: Utah Hockey Club at Montreal Canadiens
Pick: Canadiens +1 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup pits two relatively even teams against each other, with Montreal enjoying the advantage of home ice. The Canadiens are in better form, having won three of their last five games, while the Utah Hockey Club, or "Yeti," has only managed four wins since October 20. Additionally, the Yeti are at the tail end of a four-game road trip, a scenario that typically favors the home team.

Key Trends:

• Recent Form:

  • Montreal: 3-2 in their last five games.

  • Utah: 4 wins in their last 14 games.

• Special Teams Advantage:

  • Canadiens rank 10th in power play percentage (PP%) and 8th in penalty kill percentage (PK%), demonstrating consistent execution on special teams.

  • Utah struggles on both fronts, ranking 20th in PP% and 22nd in PK%, leaving them vulnerable in high-leverage situations.

• Schedule Dynamics:

  • Utah is at the end of a grueling four-game road trip, which could lead to fatigue and suboptimal performance.

Statistical Matchup:

• Team Metrics:

  • Montreal's recent games showcase balanced scoring and solid defensive effort, especially on special teams.

  • Utah's lack of consistency and struggles in key areas like penalty kills and power plays have hindered their ability to close out games.

• Goaltending Edge:

  • Montreal’s netminder, likely Jake Allen, has been steady, while Utah’s backup options have struggled in recent matchups.

Projected Outcome:

Montreal’s ability to capitalize on special teams and their fresher legs on home ice make them the favorable pick here. Utah’s road fatigue and middling special teams play should tilt the game in the Canadiens’ favor.

Projected Score: Montreal 3, Utah 2

Recommendation:

Take Canadiens +1, providing a safety net if the game is close, while leveraging Montreal’s recent form, special teams advantage, and home-ice edge against a fatigued Utah squad.