Gratitude and Results: Thanksgiving Eve at BrownBagBets

Champions League: Club Brugge at Celtic

Pick: Over 2.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair. Club Brugge is in blistering attacking form, coming off a massive 7-0 win over STVV in the Belgian Pro League, and has scored two or more goals in four of their past six outings. Celtic, known for their offensive prowess at home, has found the net eight times in their two Champions League matches at Celtic Park this season. Both teams thrive in open play and possess the firepower to turn this into a goal-fest.

Key Trends:

• Club Brugge has hit the Over 2.5 line in five of their last six games across all competitions.

• Celtic has scored two or more goals in six consecutive matches across all competitions.

• Both teams have scored in six of Celtic’s last seven matches, highlighting their attacking focus but defensive vulnerabilities.

Projected Outcome:

Given the attacking intent of both sides and their recent scoring trends, this match is primed for goals. Expect an end-to-end encounter with both teams contributing to the total. The Over 2.5 line offers excellent value given the offensive form of both clubs.

Score Prediction:

Celtic 3, Club Brugge 2

Champions League: Real Madrid at Liverpool

Pick: Real Madrid +0.5 @+105 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Real Madrid enters this matchup in strong form, aiming for their third consecutive win after a commanding 3-0 victory over Leganes. Their key players—Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, and Jude Bellingham—are hitting their stride at just the right time. Liverpool’s defense, which conceded twice to a struggling Southampton side in their last league match, could face significant pressure against Los Blancos’ potent attack. At Anfield, Liverpool will have the crowd advantage, but Real Madrid’s quality and experience make them well-suited to secure at least a draw.

Key Trends:

• Real Madrid is unbeaten in their last seven away games across all competitions.

• Liverpool has conceded in four of their last five matches, including two goals against Southampton.

• Real Madrid has historically fared well against Liverpool, winning four of their last five meetings, including at Anfield.

Projected Outcome:

With Real Madrid’s offensive firepower and Liverpool’s defensive vulnerabilities, expect a competitive game that could end in a draw or even a narrow win for the visitors. Taking Real Madrid on the +0.5 line provides value with their ability to capitalize on Liverpool’s defensive lapses.

Champions League: Juventus at Aston Villa

Pick: Under 2.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup sets up for a defensively focused, low-scoring affair. Juventus has leaned heavily on their defensive structure, with Under 2.5 goals hitting in each of their last four matches. Their Champions League outings have followed suit, featuring a 1-0 loss to Stuttgart and a 1-1 draw with Lille. Aston Villa, meanwhile, has averaged just 1.75 goals per game in this competition, and their defensive setup at home should limit Juventus’s already cautious attack.

Key Trends:

• Juventus’s last four matches have gone Under 2.5 goals across all competitions.

• Aston Villa has kept clean sheets in two of their last three home games in the Champions League.

• Juventus has scored just two goals in their last three Champions League matches.

Projected Outcome:

This match has the makings of a grind, with both sides likely playing conservatively. A 1-0 or 1-1 result seems probable, making Under 2.5 goals a strong value play.

NCAAB: Louisville vs Indiana

Pick: Indiana ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This neutral-site matchup in the Bahamas favors Indiana, as the Hoosiers have a distinct edge in the paint and overall depth. KenPom ranks Indiana 20 spots higher than Louisville (38 vs. 58), and that gap might even be understated. Indiana’s dominant frontcourt, featuring Mackenzie Mgbako and Oumar Ballo, gives them a major advantage in rebounding and rim protection. Louisville struggled against the only ranked team they’ve faced, losing decisively to Tennessee, which raises concerns about their ability to compete with teams of Indiana’s caliber.

Key Trends:

• KenPom Efficiency Ratings: Indiana’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) is 113.0 (29th nationally), while Louisville’s defense ranks outside the top 50.

• Head-to-Head History: Indiana has covered 4 of their last 5 neutral-site games, thriving in tournament environments.

• Recent Performances: Indiana has consistently dominated inside, with Ballo and Mgbako combining for nearly 30 points and 15 rebounds per game. Louisville lacks the defensive size to counter this.

Projected Outcome:

Indiana’s superior inside presence, defensive discipline, and ability to control the glass should overwhelm Louisville. Expect the Hoosiers to pull away late in a competitive first half.

Score Prediction:

Indiana 76, Louisville 67

NCAAB: Western Michigan at Youngstown State

Pick: Youngstown -9 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Western Michigan may face challenges coming off a one-week layoff following a tough 80-76 loss to South Dakota. Teams in similar situations often struggle to regain rhythm right before the holiday break. On the other hand, Youngstown State is looking to rebound after a disappointing performance in their recent tournament, which included losses to Presbyterian and Stephen F. Austin. Despite those setbacks, the Penguins showed earlier this season that they can compete at a higher level, taking Syracuse to overtime.

Key Trends:

• Western Michigan’s Road Struggles: The Broncos are 0-2 ATS on the road this season, with losses coming against middling opponents.

• Youngstown State’s Home Edge: The Penguins are 3-1 ATS at home and perform significantly better offensively in their own gym.

• Motivation Factor: Youngstown State seeks to bounce back and will look to exploit Western Michigan’s defensive lapses (allowing 74.5 PPG).

Projected Outcome:

Youngstown State’s recent frustrations should fuel a focused effort at home, particularly against a Western Michigan team that has struggled to defend and maintain consistency. The Penguins’ deeper roster and ability to control tempo should help them cover the spread comfortably.

Score Prediction:

Youngstown State 83, Western Michigan 70

NCAAB: Oregon vs San Diego State

Pick: Oregon -3.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

San Diego State capitalized on a shorthanded Creighton team in their win yesterday, but they face a more balanced challenge against Oregon. The Ducks excel at defending the perimeter, holding opponents to 29.3% shooting from beyond the arc, which could stifle San Diego State’s offense after their hot 47.1% 3-point performance against the Bluejays. Oregon also boasts a significant advantage in rebounding, which should limit the Aztecs’ second-chance opportunities, while their efficient inside scoring (57% FG on 2-pointers) gives them a reliable offensive edge.

Key Trends:

• Perimeter Defense: Oregon limits opponents to under 30% shooting from three, a key factor against an SDSU team reliant on outside shooting.

• Rebounding: Oregon has a top-30 rebounding rate nationally, compared to SDSU’s inconsistent board play.

• ATS Trends: Oregon has covered 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court.

Projected Outcome:

Expect Oregon’s interior scoring, rebounding dominance, and perimeter defense to carry the day in what should be a competitive game. The Ducks pull away late to cover the number.

Score Prediction:

Oregon 74, San Diego State 68

NCAAB: Texas A&M vs Creighton

Pick: Texas A&M -3.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Texas A&M is coming off a frustrating loss to Oregon, where they failed to score in the final stretch, but their offensive potential remains strong. Coach Buzz Williams will likely push for a more balanced offensive attack to avoid relying solely on Zhuric Phelps and Wade Taylor IV, who accounted for half of the team’s points in the loss. Expect the Aggies to improve their shooting from the field after a subpar 32.4% performance.

Creighton, meanwhile, is missing a critical piece in Steven Ashworth, who has been a consistent scoring and shooting threat (16 PPG, 41% from three). Without him, the Bluejays looked vulnerable in Tuesday’s loss to San Diego State, exposing a lack of depth and offensive flow.

Key Trends:

• Texas A&M’s Defense: The Aggies rank in the top 40 in defensive efficiency per KenPom, which should help stifle a Creighton team missing a key scorer.

• Bounce-Back Spot: Buzz Williams-coached teams are 11-4 ATS in games following a loss over the last two seasons.

• Creighton Without Ashworth: The Bluejays’ offense has been significantly less effective, lacking perimeter scoring and spacing in his absence.

Projected Outcome:

With Texas A&M aiming to bounce back and Creighton struggling to adapt without Ashworth, the Aggies should have the edge in this matchup. Their superior defense and more balanced offensive attack should help them cover the spread.

Score Prediction:

Texas A&M 74, Creighton 67

NCAAB: Long Beach State vs San Jose State

Pick: San Jose State -5.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

San Jose State is rolling in this Henderson event, having secured convincing wins over UTEP and UNC-Greensboro, showcasing a disciplined defense and balanced scoring. Their perimeter defense has been particularly effective, limiting their last two opponents to just 9-of-37 shooting from three-point range. UCLA transfer Will McClendon has stepped up offensively, delivering consistent double-digit scoring performances in four straight games.

Long Beach State, meanwhile, has struggled mightily, showing little competitiveness in back-to-back losses against the same opponents San Jose State handled with ease. The Beach’s issues on both ends of the floor make them a difficult team to trust in this matchup.

Key Trends:

• San Jose State’s Form: 3-0 ATS in their last three games, demonstrating defensive consistency and offensive balance.

• Long Beach State’s Struggles: The Beach has failed to cover in consecutive games and lacks the firepower to match San Jose State.

• Neutral Court Advantage: San Jose State has looked comfortable in this tournament setting, showing poise in key moments.

Projected Outcome:

San Jose State’s defensive edge and superior form should carry them to a comfortable win over a Long Beach State team that continues to underperform.

Score Prediction:

San Jose State 72, Long Beach State 63

NCAAB: Notre Dame vs Houston

Pick: Notre Dame +17 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Houston is coming off back-to-back tough losses to Auburn and Alabama, raising questions about their current level compared to previous seasons. Star transfer LJ Cryer has yet to deliver consistent results, and the Cougars’ offense has shown vulnerability against stronger opponents. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has been competitive this season under head coach Micah Shrewsberry, narrowly losing an overtime thriller to Rutgers. Sophomore guard Markus Burton, averaging 18.2 points per game, leads an Irish team that is steadily improving and capable of keeping this closer than the wide spread suggests.

Key Trends:

• Houston’s Form: Houston is 1-3 ATS in its last four games, struggling to cover large spreads.

• Notre Dame’s Competitiveness: The Irish have shown resilience, covering as underdogs in similar matchups this season.

• Historical ATS Performance: Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as double-digit favorites against non-conference opponents.

Projected Outcome:

Notre Dame’s improving offense and ability to hang tough should help them cover this large number, even if Houston secures the win.

Score Prediction:

Houston 75, Notre Dame 63

NHL: Vancouver Canucks at Pittsburgh Penguins

Pick: Penguins +1 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Pittsburgh is in a prime spot to bounce back at the end of their homestand after dropping three straight. The Canucks are coming off a tightly contested game in Boston last night and will likely rely on backup goaltender Artus Silovs, who has struggled this season with a 3.91 GAA and .857 SV. The Penguins, while inconsistent, are well-rested and have historically performed well against Vancouver at home, earning points in five consecutive matchups dating back to 2018.

Key Trends:

• Penguins at Home vs. Vancouver: Pittsburgh has secured points in their last five home games against the Canucks.

• Canucks on Back-to-Backs: Vancouver’s performance typically dips with travel and backup goaltending in back-to-back scenarios.

• Backup Goaltender Impact: Silovs’ subpar metrics could leave Vancouver vulnerable.

Projected Outcome:

This feels like a classic “insurance play” with +1, offering protection in a close game while capitalizing on Pittsburgh’s rest advantage and desperation to end their skid.

Score Prediction:

Penguins 4, Canucks 3 (OT)

NHL: St. Louis Blues at New Jersey Devils

Pick: Blues +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Blues may be seeing a resurgence under new head coach Jim Montgomery, evidenced by their inspired performance in a 5-3 win over the Rangers on Monday. That victory marked the Blues’ highest-scoring game since early in the season, signaling potential offensive improvement. In goal, Jordan Binnington is expected to build on Joel Hofer’s solid showing against New York. Meanwhile, the Devils are on a strong run, with five wins in their last six games, but this could be a tougher matchup than anticipated.

Key Trends:

• New Coach Impact: The “new coach bounce” appears real, as St. Louis looked energized under Montgomery in his debut.

• Defensive Consistency: Jake Allen, playing for the Devils, has been reliable with a 2.14 GAA but may face a Blues team finding its offensive rhythm.

• Recent Form: St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog of +1.5 goals.

Projected Outcome:

The Devils remain the favorites, but the rejuvenated Blues should keep this game competitive. Backing St. Louis to stay within a goal offers value given their current momentum and improved energy.

Score Prediction:

Devils 3, Blues 2

NHL: Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets

Pick: Blue Jackets ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Montreal is in a tough scheduling spot, playing the second half of a back-to-back after hosting Utah on Tuesday. With their primary goaltender used in that game, Cayden Primeau has been confirmed in net for Wednesday. Primeau’s struggles this season (1-2-1, 4.59 GAA, .842 SV%) make this an ideal fade spot against a rested Blue Jackets team. Columbus has been solid at home, sporting a 7-3 record, and should capitalize on Montreal’s fatigue and goaltending disadvantage.

Key Trends:

• Blue Jackets Home Record: Columbus is 7-3 on home ice this season, showcasing profitability in their building.

• Canadiens in Back-to-Backs: Montreal has struggled in second-leg games, particularly when using backup goaltenders.

• Primeau’s Performance: Primeau’s metrics are among the league’s worst for backup goaltenders this season.

Projected Outcome:

Columbus should take advantage of a worn-down Canadiens team and Primeau’s struggles in net. A rested Blue Jackets squad playing at home is the clear value side here.

Score Prediction:

Blue Jackets 4, Canadiens 2

NHL: Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche

Pick: Avalanche ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This game sets up as a prime spot for the Avalanche. Colorado returns to the comfort of home after a four-game road trip and a frustrating 8-2 loss in Tampa Bay, likely playing with added motivation. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are at the end of a grueling four-game road trip and face the added challenge of Denver’s high altitude—a tough task for a team battling injuries. Vegas has also benefited from fortunate bounces this season, ranking 9th in “luck” metrics, while Colorado has been one of the league’s unluckiest teams (4th).

Key Trends:

• Revenge Spot: Colorado seeks to avenge their 8-4 loss to Vegas earlier this season despite outshooting the Knights 32-21 in that matchup.

• Vegas Fatigue: The Knights are playing their fifth road game in seven days, a scenario where tired legs are often exposed.

• Injury Impact: Vegas is dealing with several key injuries, limiting their depth and overall effectiveness.

Projected Outcome:

The Avalanche are poised to capitalize on Vegas’s fatigue and their own home-ice advantage, especially in the altitude of Denver. Look for Colorado to outwork and outpace a worn-down Golden Knights squad.

Score Prediction:

Avalanche 5, Golden Knights 3

NBA: Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Pick: Cavs -10 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Atlanta Hawks are reeling, coming off three consecutive losses, each by double digits. Their struggles extend on both ends of the court, particularly on defense, which has allowed opponents to exploit them in transition and beyond the arc. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been dominant at home, with an 8-2 ATS record and a knack for blowing out opponents. Cleveland’s defense, anchored by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, remains one of the best in the league, allowing them to control the pace and limit opponents’ scoring opportunities.

Key Trends:

• Cavaliers Home Dominance: 10 wins this season by 10 or more points and an impressive 8-2 ATS record at home.

• Hawks’ Recent Form: Atlanta has dropped three straight games by double digits, showcasing poor defensive execution.

• Matchup History: Cleveland has consistently handled mid-tier teams at home with ease, relying on their defensive identity and efficient scoring.

Projected Outcome:

The Cavaliers’ superior defense and consistent home performance should lead to another double-digit win, capitalizing on Atlanta’s recent struggles.

Score Prediction:

Cleveland Cavaliers 117, Atlanta Hawks 102

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers at Washington Wizards

Pick: Clippers -10 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Washington Wizards are in freefall, having lost 12 straight games. During this stretch, their closest margin of defeat was 9 points, with an average losing margin of 17 points. They’ve been consistently overwhelmed on both ends of the court, evidenced by their 5-10 ATS record in this span. On the other hand, the Clippers have found their rhythm, winning 5 of their last 6 games, all by 11 or more points, before a competitive loss to Boston. The Clippers’ defense, ranked in the top 10 for efficiency, poses a significant mismatch for Washington’s struggling, young roster.

Key Trends:

• Wizards’ Struggles: Lost 12 straight games, 11 of which exceeded a 10-point margin.

• Clippers’ Road Form: 5-3 ATS on the road and 10-4 ATS with a day of rest.

• Head-to-Head Advantage: The Clippers have dominated lower-tier teams this season, regularly covering double-digit spreads.

• Defensive Mismatch: The Clippers’ defensive prowess contrasts starkly with the Wizards’ turnover-prone and inefficient offense.

Projected Outcome:

The Clippers’ balanced offense and elite defense should easily cover this spread against a reeling Wizards team that struggles to remain competitive.

Score Prediction:

Los Angeles Clippers 122, Washington Wizards 104