BrownBagBets Celebrates Thanksgiving with NFL Picks, NCAA Basketball Early Season Action and More!

Grateful Hearts, Winning Picks, and a Day Full of Football

Happy Thanksgiving, BrownBagBets community! Today, we’re filled with gratitude—not just for another day of winning picks, but for everything that makes this journey so special. Thanksgiving isn’t just about the food, the family, or the football—it’s a moment to reflect, appreciate, and celebrate the things that truly matter.

What We’re Grateful For

At BrownBagBets, gratitude is at the heart of what we do. This Thanksgiving, we want to share some of the things we’re most thankful for:

1. Our Community

First and foremost, we’re thankful for you—our loyal followers, sharps, and fellow bettors. Every day, you trust us with your bankrolls, your time, and your passion for sports betting. You inspire us to keep refining our process, to share openly and transparently, and to make this the best professional betting community in the world.

2. The Process That Sets Us Apart

We’re thankful for the BrownBagBets system that keeps us grounded and focused no matter what. Whether we’re on a hot streak or grinding through a tough stretch, we trust the process that has delivered success month after month. Our proprietary bankroll intelligence, disciplined wager management, and relentless analysis are the foundation of our success.

3. The Wins We’ve Shared

From thrilling NFL upsets to calculated NCAA basketball plays, every win feels sweeter because we share it with you. Winning together as a community is what makes this journey special.

4. The Opportunities Ahead

Today marks the start of one of the best stretches on the sports calendar. With NFL Thanksgiving games, college football rivalries, Feast Week basketball, and more, there’s so much to look forward to. We’re excited to close November strong and carry this momentum into December and beyond.

Why Thanksgiving is Special

Thanksgiving is one of the best days of the year for football, and this year’s slate is no exception:

• Super Bowl favorite Detroit Lions hosting the No. 1 overall pick in Caleb Williams. Can Detroit prove its dominance, or will Chicago shock the world?

• Giants vs. Cowboys: Two NFC East rivals square off in a clash with ZERO major playoff implications.

• Dolphins vs Packers: The nightcap brings two electric teans head-to-head in one of the NFL’s most storied stadiums.

But football isn’t the only action on the table today:

• College Football:

  • The Memphis Tigers take on the Tulane Green Wave in a Thanksgiving clash that’s sure to bring fireworks.

• College Basketball Feast Week:

  • A quadruple-header from the Bahamas and a loaded slate of games across the country offer plenty of opportunities to cash in.

Why We’re Excited for What’s Ahead

Today is a reminder of why we love what we do. Thanksgiving means family, food, football, and financial gains, and we couldn’t be more excited about the opportunities ahead.

We’ve been building momentum with back-to-back winning days, and today, we’re locked in and ready to deliver more success. Whether it’s football, basketball, or something else entirely, we’re confident in our plays, our process, and the incredible community that’s been with us every step of the way.

Let’s Win the Day

As we settle in for an incredible Thanksgiving slate, let’s take a moment to be grateful for what we’ve built together. Here’s to family, friends, football, and a day full of winning plays. Happy Thanksgiving, and let’s keep this momentum rolling.

NFL: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Pick: Lions -9.5 / Wager: 5%
Pick: Sam LaPorta Over 34.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 29.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Lions are cruising, with a 10-1 record and one of the league’s most balanced teams. They’re motivated to secure the No. 1 seed and make a statement after last year’s Thanksgiving disappointment. Meanwhile, the Bears remain inconsistent, particularly on the road, and their defense faces a tall task against Detroit’s high-powered offense. Caleb Williams, working behind a shaky offensive line, will likely have to use his legs to evade pressure and keep drives alive. Sam LaPorta, a key cog in the Lions’ passing game, should have no problem clearing his receiving yard total against Chicago’s suspect linebacking corps.

Key Trends:

Lions -9.5:

• Detroit is 9-2 ATS and averages 30.2 points per game at home.

• The Bears are 0-4 SU and ATS on the road this season.

• Detroit’s defense is second in scoring, allowing just 16.6 points per game.

• Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games as double-digit favorites.

Sam LaPorta Over 34.5 Receiving Yards:

• LaPorta averages 45.5 receiving yards per game this season.

• The Bears have allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

• LaPorta has gone over this total in 8 of 11 games this year.

Caleb Williams Over 29.5 Rushing Yards:

• Williams has averaged 35 rushing yards per game in his last five outings.

• Detroit's pass rush, with Aidan Hutchinson leading the charge, will force Williams to scramble often.

• The Lions allow 22.3 QB rushing yards per game, ranking 20th in the league.

Projected Outcome:

The Lions should dominate this matchup with their balanced attack on offense and defense. Sam LaPorta is poised for a productive day in the passing game, while Caleb Williams’ rushing ability will be vital to keeping Chicago somewhat competitive. Expect the Lions to control the game and cover the spread, with LaPorta and Williams comfortably clearing their respective props.

Score Prediction:

Lions 31, Bears 13

NFL: New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Pick: Over 37.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Cowboys -3.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Rico Dowdle Over 14.5 Total Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Giants appear to have upgraded their quarterback situation with Drew Lock set to start, offering more stability than the previous carousel of Tommy DeVito and Daniel Jones. Lock's presence should elevate New York's offense enough to push this game toward the over. Meanwhile, the Cowboys enter this matchup confident after a dominant win over Washington. Even without Dak Prescott last week, they showed the ability to move the ball effectively under Cooper Rush.

Key Trends:

Over 37.5:

• The Cowboys’ offense has averaged 34 points per game in their last three contests.

• The Giants’ defense has struggled against running backs in the passing game, allowing 8 catches for 81 yards to Tampa Bay RBs last week.

• Washington has allowed 23.4 points per game this season.

Cowboys -3.5:

• Dallas has covered 4 of its last 5 Thanksgiving Day games.

• The Giants are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games.

• New York's inability to generate consistent offense away from home favors the Cowboys.

Rico Dowdle Over 14.5 Receiving Yards:

• Dowdle has seen increased usage with 23 targets over the past five games (4.6 average).

• The Giants have given up significant receiving production to running backs, including 8 catches for 81 yards last week.

• Quick outlet passes could be necessary against a strong Giants pass rush.

Projected Outcome:

The Cowboys' balance on both sides of the ball and their ability to exploit mismatches should lead to a comfortable cover. Drew Lock adds intrigue for the Giants, elevating their scoring potential and helping to push this game over the low total. Expect Rico Dowdle to capitalize on short passing opportunities to clear his receiving yard total.

Score Prediction:

Cowboys 27, Giants 17

NFL: Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Pick: Packers ML / Wager: 4%
Pick: Josh Jacobs over 14.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%
Pick: Jayden Reed over 49.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This Thanksgiving matchup at Lambeau Field comes with sub-freezing temperatures and winds expected to bring the real feel closer to 10°F. Cold weather, combined with Green Bay's opportunistic defense, could spell trouble for Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has struggled historically in such conditions (1-6 in games under 50°F, with a 58.6% completion rate and more INTs than TDs). The Packers excel at home under Matt LaFleur, posting a 25-5 record outside of the NFC North, and they match up well against Miami’s one-dimensional, pass-heavy attack.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins have failed to cover in cold weather games (1-8 ATS below 40°F since 2017) and against quality teams (1-9 ATS in Tua’s last 10 games against winning opponents). Green Bay’s secondary, led by Xavier McKinney, ranks among the best in turnovers and INTs, giving them the ability to disrupt Miami’s offense.

Key Player Props:

Josh Jacobs over 14.5 Receiving Yards:
Jacobs has been a workhorse in competitive games, and Miami has allowed RBs 6-8 targets in recent weeks as they protect against deep throws. Expect him to be used in the screen game and to record at least 15 yards receiving.

Jayden Reed over 49.5 Receiving Yards:
With Romeo Doubs potentially out, Reed remains Green Bay’s WR1. He has been a consistent producer, avoiding three consecutive unders in almost a full season. In cold weather, short and intermediate passing could favor Reed, and our model projects him for 62 yards.

Key Trends:

• Green Bay: 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games in November or later.

• Miami: 1-8 ATS in sub-40°F games since 2017; 3-9 ATS vs. winning teams in Tua’s last 12 starts.

• Tua in cold weather: 58.6% completion rate, 8 TDs, 11 INTs, 1-6 record.

• Matt LaFleur: 25-5 at home outside the NFC North.

Projected Outcome:

The Packers will lean on a balanced attack to take an early lead, forcing Miami into mistakes. Expect Green Bay’s defense to capitalize on Tua’s struggles in cold weather and secure a narrow win.

Score Prediction: Packers 24, Dolphins 20

NCAAB: Indiana vs Gonzaga

Pick: Gonzaga -9 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Gonzaga enters this matchup averaging over 93 points per game and shooting above 50% from the floor, showcasing their offensive efficiency with five double-digit scorers. While the Zags suffered a surprising OT loss to West Virginia in their Battle 4 Atlantis opener, they remain a well-coached team under Mark Few, capable of bouncing back quickly.

Indiana, on the other hand, is coming off a concerning blowout loss to Louisville, where they committed 23 turnovers and allowed 52 second-half points. The Hoosiers’ struggles in taking care of the ball and maintaining defensive discipline are major red flags, especially against a potent Gonzaga offense. Mike Woodson’s team appears to be unraveling early in the season, while the Zags are better equipped to regroup after adversity.

Key Trends:

• Gonzaga: 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.

• Indiana: 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against ranked opponents.

• Gonzaga’s Offense: Averaging 93+ points per game and shooting 50%+ from the floor this season.

Projected Outcome:

Indiana’s turnover issues and defensive lapses make it difficult for them to keep pace with Gonzaga’s efficient scoring attack. Expect the Zags to pull away in the second half for a double-digit victory.

Score Prediction: Gonzaga 84, Indiana 70

NCAAB: Louisville vs West Virginia

Pick: Louisville ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Both Louisville and West Virginia enter this game following big wins, but the Cardinals appear to have the edge in this matchup. Louisville dominated Indiana yesterday, particularly in the paint, where they scored 48 points. This performance highlights the potential of their frontcourt, which has shown improvement after a shaky start to the season.

West Virginia, meanwhile, required overtime to edge out the Bulldogs, a game that likely drained more energy from the Mountaineers. With both teams in transitional phases featuring new coaches and key transfers, Louisville’s ability to blow out Indiana in the second half yesterday gives them momentum and confidence heading into this contest.

Key Trends:

• Louisville: Improved paint presence, scoring 48 points inside against Indiana.

• West Virginia: Played an exhausting overtime game yesterday.

• Fatigue Factor: Louisville should be fresher after a dominant second-half showing against Indiana, compared to WVU’s grind-it-out OT win.

Projected Outcome:

Louisville’s ability to dominate inside and capitalize on a potentially fatigued West Virginia squad should lead to a solid win. Momentum and energy favor the Cardinals in this matchup.

Score Prediction: Louisville 74, West Virginia 69

NCAAB: Florida vs Wake Forest

Pick: Florida ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

This matchup presents an unusual scenario where taking the moneyline for a sizable favorite makes sense due to several strong indicators. Florida has been dominant to start the season, with KenPom ranking their offense among the best nationally. The Gators are projected to win this game by double digits, with the line at -6 raising eyebrows as it seems too low. The neutral site location in Kissimmee, Florida, adds a pseudo-home advantage for the Gators, bolstering their position.

Wake Forest, on the other hand, has struggled mightily, sitting at 1-6 ATS with a poor -11.7 cover margin. Their defense has been porous, and they’ve shown little ability to compete with high-caliber offenses like Florida’s. The Gators’ strong form and efficient play, combined with sharp money backing them heavily, reinforce confidence in this pick.

Key Trends:

• Florida: 5-0 straight up to start the season, with dominant offensive performances.

• Wake Forest: 1-6 ATS this season, struggling to keep games competitive.

• Betting Movement: 15% more cash than tickets on Florida -6, signaling sharp backing.

Projected Outcome:

Florida’s firepower and efficiency, coupled with Wake Forest’s defensive struggles, should lead to a comfortable Gators victory. The moneyline offers a safer play for those wary of a backdoor cover, despite the seemingly generous spread.

Score Prediction: Florida 78, Wake Forest 66

NCAAB: Santa Clara vs TCU

Pick: Santa Clara +3.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Santa Clara has been underwhelming in their 2-4 start, but last week’s 96-54 dismantling of UC Riverside was a reminder of their potential when they’re clicking offensively. The Broncos' Achilles heel has been three-point shooting, hitting just 29.4% on the season, though they shot a blistering 55% from deep in their most recent outing. Guard Carlos Stewart has yet to rediscover his form from two years ago, but his performance against UCR was a step in the right direction. Meanwhile, TCU has looked shaky offensively, managing just 69.5 points per game and failing to impress in their lone real test, a loss to Michigan.

Key Trends:

• Santa Clara:

  • The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games.

  • Improved shooting in their last game (12-for-22 from three).

• TCU:

  • The Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with losing records.

  • TCU has struggled to generate consistent offense, averaging under 70 points per game.

Projected Outcome:

Santa Clara’s recent offensive resurgence, combined with TCU’s pedestrian scoring output, should keep this game close. Expect the Broncos to cover the spread and potentially pull off the upset if their three-point shooting continues to improve.

Score Prediction:

Santa Clara 72, TCU 70

NCAAB: University of Northern Iowa vs University of North Texas

Pick: North Texas ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Two strong mid-major programs meet in the NIT Tip-Off near Disney in Florida on Thanksgiving. North Texas has started the season unbeaten and brings its trademark defensive dominance, allowing just 56.8 points per game, which ranks sixth nationally. The Mean Green have already secured impressive wins against Minnesota and Oregon State, marking the first time since 2010 they’ve beaten two major programs in the same regular season. Northern Iowa, while solid, sits lower in KenPom rankings at No. 116 compared to UNT at No. 74, and the Panthers are facing their toughest opponent so far.

Key Trends:

• North Texas:

  • 6-0 SU in games decided by 10 points or fewer over their last 10 games.

  • 10-4 SU in neutral-site games dating back to 2022.

• Northern Iowa:

  • 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral-site games.

  • Struggled defensively against stronger competition this season.

Projected Outcome:

Expect North Texas to use its elite defense to stifle Northern Iowa’s offense. While this may be a low-scoring battle, the Mean Green’s ability to dictate pace and control the glass should give them the edge. UNT already defeated Northern Iowa in OT last season, and they’re in better form heading into this matchup.

Score Prediction:

North Texas 63, Northern Iowa 58