Gratitude Fuels a Big Day, Black Friday Brings the Action

Yesterday was the kind of day we’ve been waiting for all month—and fittingly, it came on Thanksgiving, a day rooted in gratitude. With a 12% gain across the day, fueled by a stellar 10-4 record (hitting at 71%!), we reminded ourselves and our community why discipline and trust in the process always win out in the long run.

Today, we shift focus to a Black Friday sports slate that’s bursting with opportunities. From a jam-packed college football lineup to NBA, NHL, and even a potential play in EPL, the action today is everything you’d expect from one of the most exciting Fridays of the year. With just three betting days left in November, we’re well within reach of climbing back to our starting bankroll, and we’re ready to make this holiday weekend count.

Yesterday: A Win That’s Bigger Than Numbers

A 10-4 day isn’t just about the numbers on the scoreboard—it’s about what they represent. Yesterday’s results were a reflection of the hard work, analysis, and adjustments we’ve been putting in all month. While November has tested us, days like yesterday reaffirm what makes BrownBagBets different:

• Trust in the Process: Even when early results didn’t go our way, we stayed the course. Yesterday proved once again that consistency and discipline pay off.

• Bankroll Management: With 14 plays on the board, we leaned heavily on our proprietary wager management strategy, ensuring the biggest plays carried the most weight. The result? A 12% bankroll gain and another step toward ending November on a high note.

• The Power of Community: Wins like this are sweeter when shared. We’re grateful for this community of bettors who trust in our system and ride the highs and lows alongside us.

Today’s Slate: Black Friday Brings the Heat

1. College Football: A Black Friday Tradition

• Today’s slate is the biggest Friday lineup of the season, with double-digit games set to kick off. Rivalries are heating up, playoff races are in full swing, and conference titles are on the line.

• We’ve identified several plays across the board, including:

  • Key value on underdogs in rivalry games.

  • Strong indicators on totals where market inefficiencies remain.

2. English Premier League

• Southampton vs. Brighton is on our radar. Brighton’s attacking prowess will test Southampton’s defense, and we see potential value in how the lines have moved overnight.

3. NHL and NBA

• A full day of NHL and NBA action offers plenty of options to complement our football focus. We’ve highlighted:

  • NHL moneyline opportunities with teams undervalued based on recent trends.

  • NBA player props and totals where market adjustments haven’t caught up with performance.

Building Momentum Into the Weekend

Yesterday’s success sets the tone for what’s to come. With just three betting days left in November, we’re within earshot of our starting bankroll and have every intention of finishing strong. Black Friday is the perfect setup to build momentum into the weekend, and we couldn’t be more ready to execute.

Let’s carry the discipline, focus, and gratitude that powered yesterday into today’s action. Three days left. Let’s win the month.

NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Pick 1: Raiders +13.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick 2: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing TDs / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Chiefs' trend of failing to cover large spreads continues, as they’ve failed to cover in their last five games, including a seven-point win over the Raiders earlier this season. Kansas City often plays to the level of their competition, making the +13.5 a compelling play for a Raiders team that hasn’t been completely blown out in recent weeks. The Maxx Crosby-led defense has shown resilience, keeping games manageable even in losses.

As for Patrick Mahomes, he’s been hitting this prop consistently, with two or more passing TDs in four of his last five games. The Raiders’ defense, which has allowed 20 passing touchdowns this season, has given up two or more in four straight games. Expect Mahomes to capitalize on this weakness, even if the Chiefs struggle to cover the spread.

Key Trends:

• Kansas City ATS: The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.

• Raiders' Close Margins: Vegas has kept games within two scores even against stronger opponents.

• Mahomes vs. Raiders: Patrick Mahomes has thrown two or more TDs in nine of his 11 career games against Las Vegas.

• Raiders’ Pass Defense: Allowed 12 passing TDs in their last four games.

Projected Outcome:

Expect the Raiders to remain competitive and within the spread, as the Chiefs likely lean on Mahomes to secure the victory. The Chiefs' offense should find its stride, particularly in the passing game, but a blowout appears unlikely.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Raiders 20.

NCAAF: Mississippi State at Ole Miss

Pick: Mississippi State +26.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This year’s Egg Bowl matchup brings plenty of intrigue, as both teams enter the game with contrasting motivations and issues. For Ole Miss, last week’s loss at Florida seems to have deflated their momentum, with reports of Lane Kiffin’s frustrations spilling into team preparation. Injuries, especially to center Reece McIntyre, could further disrupt Ole Miss’ offensive rhythm. The Rebels struggled to protect QB Jaxson Dart during McIntyre's absence, and even if he plays, his health is a concern.

On the other hand, Mississippi State hasn’t done much well this season but has largely avoided the type of blowout anticipated by this spread. The Bulldogs have covered against tough SEC opponents like Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Tennessee under freshman QB Michael Van Buren. The Egg Bowl’s history of close, chaotic games also lends itself to skepticism over Ole Miss covering such a large number, especially against a team led by former Kiffin assistant Jeff Lebby.

Key Trends:

• Rivalry Factor: The last five Egg Bowl games have been decided by an average of just six points.

• Mississippi State: Only one loss this season by more than 26.5 points, despite a tough SEC schedule.

• Ole Miss: Offensive struggles loom with injuries on the line and reported internal tension.

• Coaching Dynamic: Jeff Lebby, former Kiffin OC, adds a unique wrinkle to this matchup.

Projected Outcome:

Mississippi State may not have the firepower to win outright, but they’ve shown resilience in covering large spreads against top SEC competition. The rivalry factor and Ole Miss’ current state of uncertainty make this number too big to ignore.

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 17

NCAAF: Utah State at Colorado State

Pick: Colorado State ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Despite last week’s loss, Colorado State remains in contention for a Mountain West title game appearance. This home finale provides them with the chance to stay in the hunt, provided they win and get some external help. While Colorado State has been inconsistent at times, they’ve shown enough offensive firepower to take advantage of a Utah State defense that has struggled mightily on the road.

Utah State enters this matchup winless away from home and with significant defensive issues, ranking next-to-last in the conference by allowing 471.5 total yards per game. Colorado State’s balanced offense, led by QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, should be able to exploit these weaknesses effectively in a must-win scenario.

Key Trends:

• Utah State on the Road: The Aggies are 0-5 away from home this season.

• Colorado State Motivation: The Rams need this win to keep their title game hopes alive.

• Defensive Disparity: Utah State’s defense ranks near the bottom of the Mountain West in total yards allowed.

Projected Outcome:

The Rams’ home-field advantage and superior offensive balance should carry them to a victory against a struggling Utah State team. Colorado State’s postseason motivation and Utah State’s defensive liabilities make the Rams the pick here.

Score Prediction: Colorado State 34, Utah State 27

NCAAF: Stanford at San Jose State

Pick: San Jose State ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup appears to mean much more to San Jose State than to Stanford. The Cardinal are coming off an emotional rivalry loss to Cal and have no postseason aspirations with bowl eligibility out of reach. Stanford has struggled on the road, losing four straight away games, and their motivation could be lacking after last week's deflating defeat.

Meanwhile, San Jose State is fired up to host a power conference opponent and will be eager to end their regular season on a high note before heading to a bowl game. The Spartans feature standout senior WR Nick Nash, who could have a field day against Stanford’s porous pass defense, which ranks among the worst in the country.

Key Trends:

• Stanford on the Road: The Cardinal have lost four straight away games.

• Motivated Spartans: San Jose State is hosting a power conference team and playing to secure momentum heading into bowl season.

• Stanford's Pass Defense: Ranked near the bottom nationally, this unit is a glaring weakness that Nash and the Spartans are poised to exploit.

Projected Outcome:

San Jose State’s superior motivation and ability to attack Stanford’s defensive vulnerabilities make them the stronger play. Expect the Spartans to capitalize on the opportunity to close out their season with a statement win against a power conference school.

Score Prediction: San Jose State 31, Stanford 24

NCAAB: West Virginia at Arizona

Pick: Arizona -6 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Arizona has dropped three of its last four games, but this matchup sets up well for the Wildcats. West Virginia, coming off consecutive overtime games, lacks depth and ranks 287th nationally in bench minutes. Arizona’s high-tempo offense, which ranks among the fastest in the nation, is well-suited to exploit West Virginia’s fatigue, particularly in the second half. The Wildcats are in a favorable spot to capitalize on a tired opponent, and my model projects Arizona at -8, creating some value at the current -6 line.

Key Factors:

• West Virginia Fatigue: The Mountaineers are coming off two straight overtime games and have limited depth.

• Arizona Pace: Arizona thrives in a fast-paced style, ranking among the top teams in possessions per game.

• Bench Scoring: Arizona’s deeper rotation should play a key role against a West Virginia team that heavily relies on its starters.

Projected Outcome: Arizona’s ability to push the tempo and exploit West Virginia’s thin rotation should allow them to pull away in the second half. The Wildcats are well-positioned to cover the spread in this matchup.

Score Prediction: Arizona 78, West Virginia 69.

NCAAB: Valparaiso at DePaul

Pick: DePaul -13 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This is Valparaiso’s first true road game of the season, and it’s a significant step up in competition. DePaul has been thriving at home under Chris Holtmann, dominating opponents with a +24.5 point differential across their home games. While the Blue Demons have faced a relatively soft schedule, their offensive efficiency at home—shooting 60.7% effectively—combined with their ability to hold opponents to 40.8% shooting, has been impressive.

Valparaiso, meanwhile, has struggled offensively, shooting only 44.4% on the season. The Beacons lack the firepower to match DePaul’s pace and efficiency, making this a tough spot for them to stay competitive.

Key Trends:

• DePaul Home Dominance: Four of DePaul’s six wins this season have been by at least 14 points.

• Shooting Efficiency: DePaul is shooting 60.7% effectively at home, a stark contrast to Valpo’s offensive struggles.

• First Road Game: Valparaiso faces its first road test, a significant challenge against a strong home team.

Projected Outcome:

DePaul’s superior offense and defensive control at home should lead to a decisive victory. Valparaiso’s lack of offensive firepower makes it unlikely they can stay within the number.

Score Prediction: DePaul 82, Valparaiso 65

NCAAB: Pepperdine vs. New Mexico

Pick: New Mexico -4.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Pepperdine is in full rebuild mode under new HC Ed Schilling following the departure of Lorenzo Romar and last year’s key players, several of whom became high-profile transfer portal targets. The Waves have struggled offensively, averaging just 64 points per game while shooting 40% from the floor and 30% from deep. While Schilling brought in transfers to plug gaps, only F Stefan Todorovic (18.3 ppg) and G Moe Odum (11 ppg) have shown consistency.

New Mexico State, led by HC Jason Hooten, has also undergone roster changes, but the Aggies are more cohesive and competitive. Losses to Dayton and UNLV are understandable given the quality of those teams. Returnees G Christian Cook (13.4 ppg) and F Robert Carpenter (12.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg) provide solid leadership and production, giving New Mexico State the edge in this matchup at a neutral site.

Key Trends:

• Pepperdine’s Offensive Woes: The Waves are shooting poorly from all areas and lack depth, making it difficult to compete against stronger teams.

• New Mexico State’s Balance: The Aggies have a solid inside-out game with Cook and Carpenter leading the way.

• Neutral Site Advantage: Playing at Mullett Arena in Tempe negates any home-court edge, which favors the more experienced and cohesive Aggies.

Projected Outcome:

New Mexico State’s superior offense and rebounding presence should allow them to pull away from a rebuilding Pepperdine squad.

Score Prediction: New Mexico 75, Pepperdine 68

NCAAB: George Mason at James Madison

Pick: George Mason ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This in-state rivalry features two evenly matched teams, both sitting at 4-3 on the season. George Mason’s record could easily be more impressive if not for some narrow losses, including a double-overtime defeat to East Carolina and a one-point loss to Central Michigan. While the Patriots have struggled to close out tight games, this short road trip should present an opportunity to turn things around. James Madison, despite its competitiveness, has shown a tendency to go cold offensively for extended stretches, which could be the difference maker here.

Key Factors:

• George Mason’s Resilience: The Patriots have been competitive in every game, including close losses to solid opponents.

• James Madison’s Offensive Inconsistency: The Dukes have struggled to maintain rhythm on offense, leaving them vulnerable in tight games.

• Proximity: A short two-hour road trip mitigates any significant travel disadvantage for George Mason.

Projected Outcome: Expect George Mason’s ability to grind out possessions and capitalize on James Madison’s offensive lulls to secure a narrow victory in this high-stakes regional battle.

Score Prediction: George Mason 72, James Madison 68.

NCAAB: Louisville vs Oklahoma

Pick: Oklahoma +3 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Both Louisville and Oklahoma have had impressive performances in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, but this line appears to overvalue Louisville. On a neutral court, this matchup looks more like a toss-up. Oklahoma head coach Porter Moser has prioritized improving the Sooners’ shooting this season, and it’s paying dividends. The team ranks 82nd in three-point field goal percentage and 99th in three-point scoring rate, giving them a critical advantage from beyond the arc. Additionally, Oklahoma holds a strong edge on the offensive glass, which could prove pivotal in a tight contest.

Key Factors:

• Improved Shooting: Oklahoma’s revamped roster has increased their scoring efficiency, especially from three-point range.

• Offensive Rebounding Edge: The Sooners have a notable advantage on the boards, creating extra possessions.

• Neutral Court Impact: Without a true home-court advantage, this game feels closer than the line suggests.

Projected Outcome: Expect a competitive game where Oklahoma’s shooting efficiency and rebounding edge keep them within the number, if not outright winning.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma 72, Louisville 70.

NHL: New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings

Pick: Red Wings +1.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Detroit is riding a wave of momentum, winning back-to-back games largely due to the stellar play of netminder Cam Talbot, who boasts a 2.12 GAA in November. The Red Wings' defense has tightened, and Talbot's form gives them a reliable backbone against New Jersey's high-powered offense. Adding to Detroit’s potential, Patrick Kane is rumored to be returning to action, providing a boost to the team’s offensive depth and leadership.

Key Trends:

• Detroit’s Recent Form: The Red Wings have won two straight and are solid defensively, limiting opponents' quality chances.

• Goaltending Edge: Talbot’s consistency this month gives Detroit a fighting chance to keep this game close.

• Devils’ Inconsistencies: New Jersey has been up and down lately, leaving room for Detroit to capitalize on home ice.

Projected Outcome:

Detroit’s defensive discipline and strong goaltending should keep this game close, with a good chance of forcing overtime.

Score Prediction: Devils 3, Red Wings 2 (OT)

NHL: Calgary Flames at Columbus Blue Jackets

Pick: Blue Jackets +1 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Blue Jackets have been reliable against the spread at home, boasting an impressive 8-3 ATS record in Columbus. Calgary is coming off two road losses to begin their trip, and fatigue could play a role as they enter the front end of a back-to-back set. Columbus thrives as an underdog, and having the +1 insurance goal at home makes this a value play.

Key Trends:

• Columbus at Home: The Blue Jackets are 8-3 ATS on home ice this season, consistently keeping games close.

• Calgary’s Road Struggles: The Flames have lost the first two games of their current road trip and face additional pressure heading into a back-to-back.

• Close Matchups: Columbus has shown they can hang in tight games, especially with the strong home crowd backing them.

Projected Outcome:

Expect a close, gritty game with Columbus leveraging home-ice advantage. A push is possible, but the Blue Jackets are well-positioned to cover the +1 against a Calgary team that’s struggled on the road.

Score Prediction: Flames 3, Blue Jackets 3 (OT).