Super Sunday: Euro 2024 and Copa America Finals + MLB Picks

Happy Sunday, everyone! Today is a monumental day in the world of sports betting, with two massive finals on center stage.

Euro 2024 Final: England vs. Spain

It’s a heavyweight clash in the Euro 2024 final as Spain takes on England. The sportsbooks have made Spain the clear favorite, but England’s resilience and strategic play can’t be underestimated. This match promises to be a thrilling encounter with high stakes and significant betting opportunities.

Copa America Final: Argentina vs. Colombia

The Copa America final is here, featuring tournament favorites Argentina looking to claim the trophy in back-to-back competitions. On the other side, the underdogs Colombia will aim to dash Argentina’s dreams. This matchup is set to be an exciting showdown, offering plenty of strategic betting angles.

MLB Slate

To round off the day, we have a full slate of MLB games to support all the excitement. With these thrilling matches and our disciplined approach, we’re set for an action-packed day of betting.

Let’s leverage our insights and strategies to make the most of today’s opportunities. Here’s to a successful Sunday with BrownBagBets!

Copa America Final: Argentina vs Colombia

Pick: Argentina ML @ +125 / Wager:

Argentina’s Dominance and Messi’s Quest

Argentina heads into the Copa America final with a clear goal: to secure another title under the leadership of Lionel Messi. The match, set to take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, will see Argentina try to repeat their success from 2021. Outside of a tense penalty shootout against Ecuador, Argentina has had a relatively smooth journey through the tournament, including a dominant win over Canada. Their consistency and dominance make them the favorites to lift the trophy.

Lionel Messi, seeking to add a third straight international title to his illustrious career, will be key to Argentina’s efforts. His performance, along with that of other key players like Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, is crucial for Argentina’s success.

Colombia’s Impressive Run and Tactical Strengths

Colombia’s journey to the final has been impressive, marking their second appearance in the Copa America final since their win in 2001. They have not lost a non-friendly match since February 2022, showcasing their resilience and tactical discipline. This run includes a notable victory over Argentina in the World Cup qualifiers, indicating their potential to challenge the favorites.

However, Colombia faces a significant challenge against an Argentina team known for its exceptional build-up play and defensive solidity. Colombia’s high-pressing strategy, which has been effective throughout the tournament, will be put to the test against Argentina’s press-resistant players.

Tactical Matchup and Key Players

Argentina has shown they are one of the best teams in the world at controlling and dictating the pace of the game. They have effectively used line-breaking passes and long balls to exploit defensive weaknesses, a strategy likely to cause problems for Colombia’s high defensive line. With a 65.3% success rate in long balls this tournament, Argentina’s attacking prowess is well-documented.

On the defensive side, Argentina has been the best in transition, allowing the fewest shots per counter-attack and conceding only 0.59 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes. This defensive strength will make it challenging for Colombia to create high-quality chances.

Colombia’s strength lies in their high press and set-piece proficiency. They have forced opponents, including Brazil, into mistakes with their aggressive pressing. Set pieces have been particularly effective for Colombia, leading to crucial goals against Panama and Uruguay. However, the absence of Daniel Muñoz, a key ball-progressing fullback, due to a red card will be a significant loss for Colombia.

Strategic Implications and Betting Value

Argentina opened around +145 on the 90-minute line and has been bet down to +110 at most sportsbooks, reflecting their perceived superiority. Despite Colombia’s impressive run, Argentina’s ability to control matches and exploit defensive vulnerabilities makes them the stronger team.

Colombia’s high press will struggle against Argentina’s ability to play through pressure or use long balls effectively. Argentina’s xG differential (xGD) of +1.21 per 90 minutes since late 2023 far exceeds Colombia’s +0.71, highlighting the disparity in overall team quality.

Euro ‘24 Final: England vs Spain

Pick: Both Teams to Score - Yes @ +110 / Wager: 3%

Pick: England to Lift the Trophy @ +125 / Wager: 3%

Spain’s Momentum and Key Players Returning

Spain comes into the final with significant momentum after their hard-fought 2-1 victory over France in the semifinals. The midfield duo of Rodri and Fabian Ruiz was outstanding, and teenage sensation Lamine Yamal added an extra spark in attack. For the final, they welcome back key defenders Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand, who were suspended for the France match, ensuring they are fresh and ready to fortify the defense. Spain has been impressive, defeating several European heavyweights to reach this stage, making them the slight favorites.

England’s Grit and Determination

England’s journey to the final has been marked by resilience and moments of brilliance. Despite a series of insipid performances, they have managed to grind out results. Their comeback 2-1 victory over the Netherlands in the semifinals showcased their fighting spirit. Phil Foden was outstanding in the No. 10 role, while substitutes like Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer made crucial contributions. This depth and potential for moments of magic make England a formidable opponent.

Key Matchup Dynamics

Spain’s defense has been far from impenetrable. They have conceded three goals in the tournament off 6.2 expected goals, suggesting they are due for some defensive regression. Despite likely controlling a majority of the possession, Spain’s passive defensive structure has shown vulnerabilities, especially when they try to sit back and defend leads. England, on the other hand, has been excellent defensively, allowing only 0.79 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, the third lowest in the competition.

England’s Tactical Approach

England’s defensive setup has been solid, particularly in their semifinal win over the Netherlands. They will need to apply pressure on Rodri to prevent him from dictating play and force Spain into uncomfortable positions. The key will be maintaining compactness in their own final third to deny Spain easy penetration and managing the wide threats posed by Yamal and Nico Williams. England’s ability to play through the middle, involving players like Foden and Saka, will be crucial in breaking down Spain’s defense.

Spain’s Attacking Threats

Spain’s attacking talent, particularly on the wings with Yamal and Williams, will pose a significant challenge for England. However, England’s defensive unit, including the likes of Kyle Walker and Marc Guehi, is well-equipped to handle these threats. Spain’s reliance on overloading the middle to create wide opportunities can be countered by England’s disciplined defensive structure and ability to win aerial duels.

Betting Analysis

Given the attacking talent on both sides and the defensive vulnerabilities, a bet on both teams to score looks promising. Spain has struggled to maintain leads, while England has shown resilience and the ability to create high-quality chances. The recent form and depth of the English squad suggest they are undervalued in this matchup, providing value in backing them to lift the trophy.

MLB: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Yankees ML @ +100 / Wager: 6%

Recent Form and Motivation

The Yankees have an opportunity to take over first place in the AL East heading into the All-Star break, providing significant motivation for Sunday’s game. Despite recent struggles from Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have shown resilience and the ability to capitalize on opponent slumps. The Orioles, on the other hand, are in the midst of a five-game losing streak where they have managed to score only four runs in total. This lack of offensive production is concerning, especially against a Yankees team eager to continue their winning momentum.

Pitching Matchup

Carlos Rodon may have had a tough stretch recently, but he is a proven starter who has the potential to bounce back. The Yankees’ bullpen also provides a safety net if Rodon faces difficulties early in the game. Meanwhile, Dean Kremer’s recent performance has been troubling for the Orioles. In his second start back from the DL, Kremer allowed seven runs (five earned) and seven hits over just four innings against the Cubs. This outing raises questions about his current form and ability to handle a potent Yankees lineup.

Offensive Struggles for Baltimore

The Orioles’ offense has been almost non-existent over the past five games. Scoring only four runs during this period highlights their struggles at the plate. Facing a Yankees team with strong pitching could exacerbate these issues. The Yankees’ pitchers will likely focus on exploiting the weaknesses in the Orioles’ batting order, further diminishing Baltimore’s chances of mounting a significant offensive challenge.

Yankees’ Momentum

The Yankees are on a roll and look poised to continue their winning streak. With the potential to take the division lead, the team is highly motivated. Their recent performances suggest they have found a rhythm, both offensively and defensively, that can carry them through this final game before the break. The combination of a motivated team, solid pitching, and facing an opponent in a slump makes the Yankees a strong pick for this matchup.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 @ +150 / Wager: 4%

Sunday Dominance

The Boston Red Sox have an impressive track record on Sundays, boasting a 14-1 record. Notably, 10 of these wins have been by two runs or more. They have won five straight Sunday games by multiple runs since suffering their only Sunday loss, demonstrating a consistent ability to close out the week strongly.

Recent Form and Run Support

The Red Sox have been in good form recently, winning 9 of their last 12 games. Eight of these victories have been by two or more runs, showing their ability to dominate opponents. Despite concerns with Brayan Bello’s performance on the mound, the Red Sox have been scoring a lot of runs for him. Boston is 10-6 when Bello starts, indicating that the team often provides him with ample run support to secure victories.

Pitching Matchup

Brayan Bello, while not without his faults, has been backed by a potent Red Sox offense. On the other side, Kansas City’s Brady Singer has struggled significantly more on the road. Singer’s ERA increases by half a run when pitching away from home, and his home run rate soars in road games. This is a critical factor, as the Red Sox lineup has the power to exploit these vulnerabilities.

Kansas City’s Struggles

The Royals have had a tough time on the road and have gone just 3-4 in Singer’s last seven starts, with all four losses being by three runs or more. Additionally, Kansas City’s bullpen issues and limited lineup further compound their difficulties. These factors make it challenging for them to compete effectively against a strong Boston team, especially at Fenway Park.

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies -1.5 / Wager: 5%

Philadelphia’s Bounce Back Ability

After a surprising letdown against Oakland on Friday, the Phillies responded by getting back to their winning ways on Saturday, demonstrating their ability to rebound quickly from an off night. Philadelphia has shown a consistent ability to dominate weaker opponents, and this matchup against Joey Estes and the struggling Athletics offers another prime opportunity.

Phillies’ Offensive Power

The Phillies have been smashing the baseball recently, and there’s no reason to expect that to change against Joey Estes, who lacks an effective outpitch. Philadelphia’s lineup has been potent, and they have the ability to pile up runs quickly. The Phillies have won 12 of their last 15 games by two or more runs, indicating their capability to not just win but to win decisively.

Oakland’s Struggles and Bullpen Woes

On the other side, the Athletics continue to struggle. Oakland’s bullpen is running on fumes, which is a significant disadvantage against a powerful Phillies lineup. Moreover, the Athletics have lost 12 of their last 15 games by two or more runs, highlighting their inability to keep games close, especially against stronger teams like Philadelphia.

Pitching Strategy

While the Phillies might need to patch their innings together from a pitching standpoint, the overall weakness of the Oakland lineup should mitigate any concerns. The Phillies’ recent form and the Athletics’ consistent issues, both offensively and with their bullpen, tilt the scales heavily in Philadelphia’s favor.

MLB: Colorado Rockies at New York Mets

Pick: Mets ML / Wager: 6%

Mets’ Momentum and Playoff Push

The New York Mets have been on a tear recently, winning five straight games and 25 of their last 35, propelling them into a wild card spot in the National League. This momentum and their current form make them a formidable opponent, especially against a struggling Colorado Rockies team. The Mets are playing with confidence and urgency, knowing that each win is crucial for their playoff aspirations.

Pitching Matchup

The Mets will send Jose Quintana to the mound, who has been in excellent form. Quintana has not allowed a run in his last two starts, showcasing his ability to dominate opposing lineups. His recent performances have provided stability and strength to the Mets’ rotation, making him a reliable option against a weaker Rockies lineup.

On the other hand, the Rockies will be starting German Marquez, who is making his return after almost 15 months of recovering from Tommy John surgery. The long layoff and the challenge of facing a hot Mets team make this a tough spot for Marquez. Rust and limited pitch count are factors that could hinder his performance, making it unlikely for him to outduel Quintana.

Rockies’ Struggles

The Rockies have struggled significantly this season and are considered one of the weaker teams in the league. Their recent form does not inspire confidence, and they have faced difficulties both offensively and defensively. This matchup against a surging Mets team is not favorable, especially with Marquez’s uncertain form after a long injury layoff.

Home Advantage

Playing at home, the Mets have the added advantage of familiar surroundings and supportive fans. This can provide an extra boost, especially for a team that is riding high on recent successes. The Mets have shown they can leverage their home field to maintain and extend their winning streak.