Calm Before the Storm: Saturday’s MLB Picks Ahead of Copa America and Euro ‘24 Finals

Happy Saturday, everyone! As we all eagerly anticipate the Copa America and Euro ‘24 Finals on Sunday, today feels like the calm before the storm.

Today’s Slate

With a lighter set of MLB picks on the docket, we have a perfect opportunity to fine-tune our strategies and prepare for tomorrow’s deep dive into our Copa America Finals selections and Euro ‘24 Finals analysis. There are enough MLB games to feast on today, providing plenty of chances to apply our disciplined approach and build momentum heading into Sunday.

Let’s make the most of today’s opportunities, stay focused, and get ready for an exciting weekend of sports betting. Here’s to a successful Saturday with BrownBagBets!

Copa America: Uruguay vs Canada

Pick: Uruguay win to nil @ +170 / Wager: 3%

Saturday night’s Copa America third-place game features a clash between Uruguay and Canada, with the South American side holding a distinct advantage.

Canada’s Offensive Struggles

Throughout the tournament, Canada has managed to score only twice, despite generating 6.5 expected goals. This discrepancy highlights their inefficiency in converting chances, which could be crucial against a defensively solid Uruguay side. The Canadian attack has struggled to find the back of the net, and their expected goals figure is somewhat inflated due to playing with a man advantage for roughly 90 minutes in one of their matches.

Uruguay’s Defensive Prowess

Uruguay has shown a robust defensive setup under the management of Marcelo Bielsa. The team has conceded few goals and maintained defensive discipline throughout the tournament. Bielsa’s unique pressing schemes can disrupt opponents’ attacking flow, making it challenging for Canada, especially if both teams rotate their squads.

Impact of Squad Rotations

If both teams make some rotations, it heavily favors Uruguay. The gap between Uruguay’s first XI and their second XI is significant but not as vast as the gap between Canada’s first and second choices. Uruguay’s depth in quality should allow them to maintain a strong performance even with changes, whereas Canada’s second-choice players might struggle more against the intense pressing and tactical setup of Uruguay.

Motivation and Perception

Uruguay is likely to take this match more seriously due to the perception back home. A loss to Canada, even in a relatively inconsequential third-place game, would be seen as a significant disappointment. This motivation should ensure that Uruguay approaches the game with the intent to secure a win without conceding.

Statistical Edge

Betting on Uruguay to win to nil at +170 odds translates to an implied probability of around 37%. This wager aligns with the fact that both teams have seen this outcome in 40% of their games in the tournament. Considering Uruguay’s defensive strength and Canada’s attacking inefficiencies, this bet offers substantial value.

Wrap it up

Uruguay’s defensive discipline and Canada’s struggles in front of goal make a compelling case for Uruguay to win without conceding. Marcelo Bielsa’s tactical acumen and the depth of the Uruguayan squad should be enough to see them through this match comfortably. Betting on Uruguay to win to nil at +170 presents a well-founded and strategic wager.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers

Pick: Tigers ML @ +125 / Wager: 6%

The Detroit Tigers offer a compelling value play tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Here’s a breakdown of why the Tigers are a solid bet on the moneyline:

Dodgers’ Pitching Woes

The Dodgers are in a precarious position with their depleted pitching staff. Manager Dave Roberts is forced to send rookie Justin Wrobleski to the mound once again despite a rough debut last Sunday. In his first start, Wrobleski was hammered by the Brewers, allowing nine runs in just a few innings. With the All-Star break looming, the Dodgers are likely more focused on avoiding further injuries rather than securing wins, potentially affecting their performance tonight.

Tigers’ Recent Form

On the other side, the Tigers have shown resilience and competence, especially with Keider Montero on the mound. Montero has been impressive in his recent outings, allowing just two runs and nine hits across 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts. His solid form provides Detroit with a significant pitching advantage tonight.

Motivation Factor

The Tigers are likely kicking themselves for blowing a 3-0 lead on Friday, which should fuel their motivation to perform better tonight. They have an opportunity to capitalize on a Dodgers team that is limping towards the All-Star break. Playing at home with a pitcher in good form, the Tigers are in a strong position to bounce back and secure a win.

Dodgers’ Focus on Recovery

The Dodgers’ primary focus at this point seems to be on reaching the All-Star break without further casualties. This mindset could result in a less aggressive approach to tonight’s game, making them vulnerable against a motivated Tigers team.

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies ML / Wager: 6%

The Philadelphia Phillies offer a promising opportunity for a bounce-back win today against the Oakland Athletics. Here’s a detailed breakdown of why the Phillies are the smart pick:

Phillies’ Bounce-Back Potential

The Phillies suffered a surprising loss to the Athletics on Friday, which can often serve as a wake-up call for a team of their caliber. The Phillies are well-positioned to respond positively and avoid back-to-back losses to a struggling Oakland team. Philadelphia has shown resilience throughout the season and should be motivated to get back on track with a win today.

Athletics’ Struggles

Despite their win on Friday, the Athletics remain one of the weakest teams in the league. They have struggled significantly throughout the season and have not shown consistent performance, especially against stronger teams like the Phillies. This season, the A’s have one of the worst records in the league, which adds to the Phillies’ chances of securing a win.

Phillies’ Motivation and Focus

As the All-Star break approaches, the Phillies are focused on maintaining their momentum and solidifying their position. Losing to a team like the Athletics can be a blow to their morale, so expect them to come out strong today to avoid any further slip-ups. The team is likely to be highly motivated to secure a convincing win before the break.

Pitching Matchup

Today’s starting pitcher for the Phillies, Tyler Phillips, remains somewhat of an unknown quantity. While this might seem like a potential risk, it can also work in Philadelphia’s favor. The Athletics’ hitters have little to no experience against Phillips, which can give him an edge. Furthermore, the Phillies’ bullpen is capable and should be able to provide the necessary support to secure a win, even if Phillips is used for a limited number of innings.

MLB: Colorado Rockies at New York Mets

Pick: Mets -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 7%

The New York Mets continue to show their dominance as they aim to extend their winning streak against the struggling Colorado Rockies. Here’s a detailed breakdown of why the Mets are the smart pick on the run line for today’s game:

Mets’ Momentum and Recent Form

The Mets have won four straight games and are currently sitting in an NL wild card spot. Their form has been impressive, winning 24 of their last 34 games. Despite the narrow win last night, the Mets have consistently shown their ability to close out games, even if the margin wasn’t as comfortable as expected. This strong run of form and their current momentum make them a formidable opponent for the Rockies.

Rockies’ Struggles

The Rockies have had a tough season, exemplified by Ryan Feltner’s unfortunate 1-8 record. While Feltner has pitched better than his record suggests, the Rockies’ overall performance has been subpar, often unable to provide the necessary run support or bullpen reliability. This consistent underperformance makes them an easier target for a Mets team looking to capitalize on their weaknesses.

Pitching Matchup

Today’s game features Christian Scott for the Mets, who has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. Scott’s recent performances suggest he is finding his rhythm and can handle the Rockies’ lineup effectively. On the other hand, Ryan Feltner, despite his bad luck, faces a Mets lineup that has been productive and is likely to exploit any mistakes.

Mets’ Offensive Capabilities

The Mets’ offense has been potent, as evidenced by their recent games. Even in games where their bullpen has given up runs, their offense has provided a sufficient cushion. With players like Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and others in good form, the Mets have the firepower to put up runs and secure a comfortable win against a struggling Colorado team.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Pick: Royals ML @ +110 / Wager: 4%

Backing the Kansas City Royals on the money line against the Boston Red Sox provides solid value for a few key reasons:

Kutter Crawford’s Respect

Kutter Crawford has indeed been impressive this season, carrying a 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However, he might be receiving a bit too much respect in this matchup. The Royals’ lineup has been particularly strong against right-handed pitching, ranking sixth in wRC+ over the last 15 games. This ability to perform well against right-handers, coupled with the lowest strikeout rate against them in the same span, gives Kansas City a fighting chance against Crawford.

Royals’ Defensive Excellence

Seth Lugo has benefitted significantly from the defense behind him, as evidenced by his 2.21 ERA which is notably lower than his expected ERA. The Royals are fourth in the league in Outs Above Average, thanks to excellent infield play. This defensive prowess has been crucial in supporting their pitchers and limiting opponent scoring opportunities. Given the Red Sox’s tendency to put the ball on the ground, Kansas City’s defense should be well-positioned to mitigate their offensive threat.

Red Sox’s Groundball Tendencies

The Red Sox can indeed slug the ball, but their inclination to hit groundballs plays into the strengths of the Royals’ infield defense. Additionally, the smaller dimensions of Fenway Park might actually favor Kansas City’s defensive alignment, potentially reducing the impact of Boston’s offensive capabilities.

Betting Trends and Sharp Money Movement

One of the most compelling aspects of this pick is the significant betting trend in favor of the Royals. Despite only 26% of total bets being placed on Kansas City, a substantial 80% of the money is backing them. This disparity often indicates sharp money and professional bettors seeing value in the Royals. Moreover, the odds have shifted multiple times in favor of Kansas City, reinforcing the confidence among sharp bettors.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Reds ML / Wager: 6%

The Cincinnati Reds are poised to secure another victory tonight, riding the hot hand of their standout pitcher, Andrew Abbott. Here’s a closer look at why the Reds are the preferred pick on the money line for this matchup against the Miami Marlins:

Andrew Abbott’s Dominance

Abbott has been in exceptional form, winning four straight starts and six of his last seven. Over this span, he has maintained a solid 2.70 ERA, showcasing his ability to shut down opposing lineups effectively. The Marlins have never faced Abbott, which gives him an additional advantage as Miami’s hitters will need to adjust to his pitching style on the fly.

Miami’s Unpredictable Edward Cabrera

Edward Cabrera is a pitcher with the potential to dominate but also the propensity to implode. His tendency to walk batters excessively can lead to early scoring opportunities for the Reds. For instance, he has the capability of walking the bases loaded in the first inning, making him a risky bet. This inconsistency can play right into Cincinnati’s hands, providing them with early chances to put runs on the board.

Reds’ Offensive Potential

The Reds have a lineup that can capitalize on Cabrera’s weaknesses. With players like Joey Votto, Jonathan India, and Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati has the firepower to exploit any control issues Cabrera might have. The Reds’ ability to score runs consistently supports the case for backing them in this matchup.

Home Advantage

Playing at Great American Ball Park, the Reds have the home-field advantage. This familiar environment can boost their performance, particularly with Abbott on the mound and the confidence that comes with their recent winning streak.

Betting Insight

As noted by RJ White, the Under 2.5 ER prop for Abbott is a solid angle, further supporting the belief in his dominant form. With Abbott likely to limit Miami’s scoring opportunities and the Reds’ offense ready to pounce on Cabrera’s mistakes, Cincinnati is well-positioned to win this game.

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

Pick: Orioles ML / Wager: 5%

The Baltimore Orioles, looking to regain their momentum, face off against the New York Yankees in what could be a pivotal game for their season. Here’s why backing the Orioles on the money line is a compelling choice:

Motivation After Last Night’s Incident

The Orioles were sparked by a contentious moment last night when Heston Kjerstad was hit in the head by a pitch. Manager Brandon Hyde’s fiery reaction highlighted the intensity and importance of this series for Baltimore. This incident could serve as a rallying point for the team, injecting them with the urgency and determination needed to secure a victory.

Grayson Rodriguez’s Home Dominance

Grayson Rodriguez has been exceptional at home, boasting a 5-1 record with a 2.27 ERA. His comfort and confidence pitching in familiar surroundings can’t be overstated. Additionally, Rodriguez has already shown he can handle the Yankees’ lineup, as evidenced by his 5.2 shutout innings against them on April 29. His ability to stymie New York’s bats again will be crucial for Baltimore’s chances.

Yankees’ Inconsistencies

The Yankees have been inconsistent, especially when facing quality pitching. While their lineup has potential, it has struggled at times to deliver in key moments. Facing a pitcher like Rodriguez, who has a proven track record against them, could spell trouble for New York. The pressure is mounting for the Yankees as well, which could lead to mistakes and missed opportunities.

Orioles’ Urgency

Baltimore is acutely aware of the importance of this game. Sitting in the thick of the playoff race, every win is crucial. This sense of urgency, combined with the added motivation from last night’s altercation, should fuel a strong performance. The Orioles need to capitalize on these pivotal moments to solidify their standing.

Recent Performance and Trends

While the Orioles have had some recent struggles, their ability to bounce back in critical situations has been notable throughout the season. The team’s resilience and ability to rally in the face of adversity are qualities that can’t be ignored. Their recent slide only adds to the determination to turn things around immediately.