2024 MLB All-Star Game: Expert Picks and Betting Insights

For the next two months or so, our primary focus will be on baseball. Today, all eyes are on the mid-summer classic—the annual 2024 MLB All-Star Game. The National League looks to beat the American League for the second straight time when they square off tonight at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. In 2023, the NL secured a narrow 3-2 victory over the AL at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET. The American League is the slight favorite at -120 on the money line, while the NL is at +100. The over/under is listed at 7.5, with the AL at -1.5 (+175) on the run line. Paul Skenes (6-0, 1.90 ERA) will start for the NL, while Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.43 ERA) gets the call for the AL. The AL has dominated the Midsummer Classic in recent history, winning nine of the last ten matchups.

Of the top seven qualifying hitters in MLB, five are from the AL, led by Cleveland left fielder Steven Kwan. In 68 games, he is hitting an impressive .354 with 14 doubles, two triples, nine homers, and 27 RBIs, with 55 runs scored. He has hits in eight of the past ten games, including three multi-hit efforts. In a recent 9-8 win at Detroit on July 9, he went 3-for-5 with a walk and two runs scored.

We have a couple of plays lined up for the BrownBagBets community and have adjusted our wager approach accordingly. Let’s win this day!

MLB: All-Star Game 2024

Pick: Under 7.5 / Wager: 4%

Major League Baseball’s best players will take center stage on Tuesday night for the 94th MLB All-Star Game. The Midsummer Classic between the National League and American League is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on FOX at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

Pitching Dominance and Roster Rotation

The All-Star Game often features the league’s top pitchers, and this year is no exception. The National League will start with Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes, who is known for his blistering fastball that averages 99.1 mph. His presence on the mound is a testament to the evolution of pitching in MLB, where velocity and strikeouts have become the norm. With both leagues featuring several hard-throwing relievers, expect dominant pitching performances throughout the game.

The nature of the All-Star Game also contributes to lower scoring. Managers typically aim to get as many players involved as possible, especially pitchers, which prevents hitters from developing familiarity and rhythm against any single pitcher. This constant rotation of fresh, elite arms generally keeps the score down.

Historical Trends and Betting Value

Historical trends support the expectation of a low-scoring affair. Teams are averaging 6.81 runs per game this season, the lowest mark since 2020. Additionally, the previous All-Star Game saw the National League snap a nine-year losing streak with a dramatic win, where only a late home run changed the game’s outcome. This further underscores how tight and competitive these matchups tend to be, often coming down to a few key plays rather than a high-scoring slugfest.

The decline in hitting and scoring efficiency, combined with the trend of utilizing top-tier pitchers for shorter stints, makes betting on the Under 7.5 runs a valuable proposition for this year’s All-Star Game.

Game Context and Player Motivation

Both leagues feature rosters filled with first-time All-Stars and veterans eager to showcase their skills on a national stage. While this adds excitement and unpredictability, it also means that players may be more conservative in their approach, focusing on making solid plays rather than taking risks. This cautious playstyle often leads to fewer scoring opportunities and, consequently, fewer runs.