Lessons, Wins, and the College Football Championship Tonight

Another NFL Winning Day – Momentum in Vegas and Beyond:

Yesterday delivered yet another NFL-winning day, capped by us nailing three touchdown props, including Barkley over 1.5 TDs at big plus money. The BrownBagBets Board of Directors has been thriving in Vegas, not just on the betting front but in the deeper discussions that define who we are and where we’re going.

A Retreat That Will Shape the Future:

This Vegas retreat has been a turning point. The conversations we’ve had, the lessons we’ve learned, and the clarity we’ve gained are already setting the foundation for the future of BrownBagBets.

But it hasn’t all been easy. We lost a friend.

Because we prioritized the wrong things, we hurt someone we value. It was a wake-up call—a reminder that humor or ego at the expense of others has no place in this community. We miss him, and we want him back.

This retreat has reinforced what we already know: together, we can do special things. But we need the entire team—every voice, every perspective. We need you. Whether you’re a casual follower, a long-time supporter, or someone with a sharp insight, we’re listening. Your ideas, your critiques, and your contributions matter. Who knows? One day, you might be the one calling picks for us.

Tonight’s Spotlight – College Football Championship:

The 2025 College Football Playoff Championship Game takes center stage tonight as Ohio State and Notre Dame clash for the title.

Game Details:

• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.

• Line: Ohio State -8.5

• Over/Under: 45.5 points

Key Storylines:

• Ohio State is chasing its first title in 10 years after a dominant Cotton Bowl win over Texas.

• Notre Dame looks to end a 37-year championship drought, riding the momentum of its semifinal victory over Penn State.

Final Thought – Building a Stronger Future Together:

This retreat has taught us that our strength lies in community and accountability. We’re more than a system, more than a board—we’re a collective, a team that thrives when everyone’s voice matters.

Tonight’s College Football Championship is the perfect opportunity to reflect on what we’ve built and where we’re headed. Let’s stay disciplined, stay sharp, and take another step toward greatness. Together, there’s no limit to what we can achieve. Let’s crush it.

English Premier League: Chelsea at Wolverhampton

Pick: Over 3.5 Goals / Wager: 5%

Analysis

This matchup between Chelsea and Wolverhampton is primed for goals, given both teams’ recent form and the historical trends of high-scoring encounters. Chelsea have consistently scored at least two goals in nine of their last 11 home matches against Wolves, while five of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone over 2.5 goals. Wolves’ defensive frailties under new manager Vitor Pereira have led to an open style of play, with 10 of their last 11 matches exceeding 2.5 goals.

Chelsea, meanwhile, are desperate to rebound after five consecutive Premier League games without a win. Their attacking unit has the firepower to exploit Wolves’ defensive lapses, while Wolves’ need for points at the bottom of the table should force them to attack, opening up spaces for a back-and-forth affair.

Betting Indicators

• Chelsea Goals: Chelsea have scored 2+ goals in nine of their last 11 matches at home against Wolves.

• Wolves Defensive Struggles: Wolves have conceded three goals in two of their last three matches and have seen over 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 11 games.

• Head-to-Head Trends: Five of the last six meetings between Chelsea and Wolves have gone over 2.5 goals.

• Urgency for Points: Both teams are highly motivated, with Chelsea chasing Champions League qualification and Wolves fighting to avoid relegation, creating an open and high-intensity game.

Projection

Chelsea 3, Wolverhampton 2

College Football Playoff Championship: Notre Dame vs Ohio State

Pick: Ohio State 1st Half -4 / Wager: 4%
Pick: Under 45.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Ohio State entered the season as the frontrunner to win the title, and their postseason performance has only reinforced that prediction. While their loss to Michigan raised questions, the Buckeyes have since reasserted themselves as the most talented and complete team in college football. They dominated their semifinal matchup and are primed to carry that momentum into the title game.

Notre Dame faces significant challenges, particularly due to key injuries to their starting lineup, which could limit their ability to hang with Ohio State for the full 60 minutes. While the Irish have fought hard all season, they haven’t faced a team with the Buckeyes' firepower and depth.

Expect Ohio State to come out strong in the first half, setting the tone early. The Buckeyes have been a fast-starting team all year, averaging over 20 points in the first half of games, while Notre Dame has occasionally struggled to find its rhythm early against elite competition.

Additionally, the under presents value in a championship setting. Both defenses are capable of making key stops, and the early nerves and high stakes often slow the scoring pace. Notre Dame’s ability to sustain long drives and Ohio State’s solid red zone defense could further suppress the total score.

Betting Indicators

• Ohio State 1st Half Dominance: The Buckeyes have covered the 1st half spread in 9 of their 13 games this season, showcasing their ability to start fast.

• Championship Game Totals Trend: The last four College Football Playoff Championship games have gone under the total, reflecting the defensive intensity of these matchups.

• Notre Dame’s Injuries: Key absences on both sides of the ball weaken the Irish’s ability to execute against a team of Ohio State’s caliber.

• Ohio State’s Defensive Improvement: The Buckeyes rank in the top 15 nationally in scoring defense, with a particular strength in red zone stops, limiting big-play potential.

Projection

Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 17

NCAAB: William and Mary at UNC Wilmington

Pick: William and Mary +6.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

William and Mary is thriving under new HC Brian Earl, who has implemented an up-tempo offense reminiscent of his successful run at Cornell. The Tribe's 5-0 start in conference play is fueled by a potent attack averaging 81.4 points per game, giving them the firepower to keep games close. The return of key players like G Kyle Pulliam and F Caleb Dorsey has bolstered the team’s depth and improved their overall performance.

UNC Wilmington, despite being a strong team at home, has been involved in several nail-biters recently, including a close loss at Trask Coliseum to Towson. Takayo Siddle’s squad has been effective, but they haven’t consistently pulled away from opponents in Coastal games. This provides an opportunity for William and Mary to cover the number as an underdog in what could be another competitive matchup.

Betting Indicators

• W&M’s Conference Momentum: The Tribe has covered in 4 of their last 5 games and is 5-0 SU in Coastal play.

• UNCW’s Close Games: UNCW has failed to cover in 3 of their last 5 contests, with several games decided by less than 6 points.

• Improved Depth: The return of Pulliam and Dorsey adds scoring options and defensive versatility for the Tribe.

• Head-to-Head: William and Mary has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 meetings with UNCW.

Projection

UNC Wilmington 73, William and Mary 70

NCAAB: Lamar at Nicholls State

Pick: Nicholls State -3 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Nicholls State enters this matchup on a strong run of form, winning 9 of their last 12 in the Southland Conference. Their resurgence is being led by G Robert Brown III, a former Niagara transfer, who has been electric recently, averaging 23 points per game over his last three outings. The Colonels' balanced attack and home-court advantage position them well to cover this modest spread against a struggling Lamar team.

Lamar’s season has taken a downward turn, dropping three consecutive games while scoring just 63 points per game during that span. The offense, which heavily relies on G Alexis Marmolejos (15.2 ppg), has become stagnant, with Marmolejos recently failing to reach double figures in five straight contests, including a scoreless effort in their last loss to McNeese. The Cardinals also suffered an embarrassing defeat to a weak New Orleans squad, highlighting their current struggles.

Betting Indicators

• Nicholls State’s Momentum: The Colonels have covered in 6 of their last 8 games, climbing into contention in the Southland Conference.

• Lamar’s Scoring Issues: Lamar has gone under 70 points in each of their last four games, failing to cover in three of those matchups.

• Robert Brown III’s Impact: Brown has been the standout performer for Nicholls, providing consistent scoring and leadership.

• Head-to-Head Trends: Nicholls State has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Lamar, covering the spread in 2 of those matchups.

Projection

Nicholls State 76, Lamar 68

NCAAB: Southeastern Louisiana at Texas A&M Commerce

Pick: Southeastern Louisiana -5.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Southeastern Louisiana has been on an upswing, winning four straight games and boasting an impressive 11-4-1 ATS record this season. David Kiefer’s squad has proven its ability to compete with strong programs, picking up early-season wins against teams like Tulane and North Dakota. South Florida transfer G Sam Hines has been a revelation, averaging 15.7 points per game and leading the offense with consistent production.

On the other side, Texas A&M-Commerce has struggled mightily, posting a dismal 2-16 record and scoring just 63.6 points per game. Their offense lacks a true scoring threat, with G Scooter Williams leading the way at a modest 10.9 points per game. The team’s poor shooting from beyond the arc (29.1%) further limits its ability to mount comebacks or keep pace with more dynamic opponents like Southeastern Louisiana.

This game presents a clear mismatch in offensive firepower, defensive discipline, and overall team momentum. Southeastern Louisiana should comfortably handle this matchup and cover the 6.5-point spread.

Betting Indicators

• Southeastern Louisiana’s Momentum: Four consecutive wins and a solid ATS record (11-4-1) highlight their strong form.

• Texas A&M-Commerce’s Struggles: ET A&M has failed to cover in 4 of its last 5 games and struggles to stay competitive offensively.

• Sam Hines’ Leadership: Hines has been the driving force for Southeastern Louisiana, scoring consistently and creating matchup problems for opponents.

• Head-to-Head Mismatch: Southeastern Louisiana’s offensive efficiency and depth provide a significant advantage over ET A&M’s stagnant offense.

Projection

Southeastern Louisiana 74, Texas A&M-Commerce 63

NCAAB: Alcorn State at Prairie View

Pick: Prairie View ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This matchup features two struggling teams, but Prairie View holds a slight edge, ranked 13 spots higher than Alcorn State on KenPom. While both teams are coming off losses on Saturday, Alcorn faces the added challenge of a road-to-road quick turnaround, a scenario where they’ve struggled mightily this season.

Alcorn State has yet to win a road game, with most losses coming in blowout fashion, albeit against strong non-conference opponents. Their offense is one of the worst in the nation, averaging just 60.6 points per game, and teams typically shoot even worse in road environments. Prairie View’s slight edge in offensive efficiency, coupled with home-court advantage, positions them well to secure the win in what is expected to be a low-scoring contest.

Betting Indicators

• KenPom Rankings: Prairie View is ranked 13 spots higher than Alcorn State, signaling a modest statistical edge.

• Road Woes for Alcorn State: The Braves remain winless on the road and have struggled to stay competitive in most games.

• Offensive Struggles for Alcorn: With an average of just 60.6 PPG, Alcorn’s offensive inefficiency makes it difficult for them to win away from home.

• Home-Court Advantage: Prairie View benefits from a more favorable environment and has the tools to take advantage of Alcorn’s road struggles.

Projection

Prairie View 65, Alcorn State 60

NCAAB: Hofstra at Drexel

Pick: Hofstra +3 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Hofstra enters this matchup as a battle-tested team with a strong defensive pedigree, boasting a KenPom defensive rating inside the top 60. They’ve faced a challenging CAA schedule but have remained competitive against top-tier opponents. Hofstra has also dominated this series recently, winning five of the last six meetings, with their lone loss being a narrow two-point defeat at Drexel last season.

Drexel, on the other hand, has struggled offensively, scoring over 68 points just once in their last seven games. Their relatively easier schedule includes double-digit home losses to Towson and Elon, which highlights vulnerabilities on their own court. With Hofstra’s defense and recent form in this rivalry, the Pride are well-positioned to cover the spread and possibly secure an outright win.

Betting Indicators

• KenPom Defensive Rating: Hofstra is ranked in the top 60 defensively, signaling their ability to limit Drexel’s already struggling offense.

• Series History: Hofstra has won 5 of the last 6 meetings, demonstrating a strong edge in this rivalry.

• Drexel’s Offensive Struggles: The Dragons have surpassed 68 points only once in their last 7 games, underscoring their limited scoring potential.

• Home Vulnerability: Drexel has already suffered double-digit home losses to Towson and Elon, indicating that home court doesn’t guarantee success.

Projection

Hofstra 68, Drexel 64

NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

Pick: Maple Leafs ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This game presents a prime opportunity to back Toronto at home against a Tampa Bay squad likely starting backup goaltender Jonas Johansson, who has struggled with a 3.18 GAA this season. The Lightning are also playing the front end of a back-to-back, which often impacts their performance. Additionally, the potential absence of top defenseman Erik Cernak further weakens Tampa’s lineup.

Toronto has been strong at home, with Joseph Woll stepping up as a reliable option in net. Woll holds a 9-4-0 home record with a 2.55 GAA. The Leafs have already bested the Lightning twice this season, outscoring them 10-5 in those contests. Their offensive firepower and solid home form make them the favorable side in this matchup.

Betting Indicators

• Goaltending Edge: Jonas Johansson’s 3.18 GAA pales in comparison to Joseph Woll’s 2.55 GAA at home.

• Series Advantage: Toronto is 2-0-0 against Tampa Bay this season, outscoring them 10-5.

• Schedule Disadvantage: Tampa Bay is on the front end of a back-to-back, potentially impacting their intensity and focus.

• Injury Concern: Erik Cernak’s possible absence weakens Tampa’s defensive corps.

Projection

Maple Leafs 4, Lightning 2

NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings

Pick: Kings ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Kings return home after an extended absence, boasting a nine-game winning streak at Crypto.com Arena. Los Angeles has thrived on home ice and will be eager to perform in front of their fans after a long road trip and disruptions caused by wildfires.

Pittsburgh is in a rough patch, winning just two of its last 10 games. The Penguins are expected to start Alex Nedeljkovic in net, whose stats leave much to be desired with an 8-7-4 record, a 3.33 GAA, and an .890 save percentage. Against a Kings team riding high at home, Pittsburgh’s struggles in net and lack of momentum make this an uphill battle.

Betting Indicators

• Home Dominance: Kings have won nine straight home games, highlighting their comfort and form at Crypto.com Arena.

• Goaltending Mismatch: Alex Nedeljkovic’s subpar 3.33 GAA and .890 save percentage present a significant disadvantage against a high-performing Kings lineup.

• Momentum Factor: Penguins have won just two of their last 10 games, indicating a team lacking confidence and cohesion.

Projection

Kings 4, Penguins 2

NBA: Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets

Pick: Pistons +8 / Wager: 6%

Analysis

Detroit has quietly been one of the most reliable road teams against the spread this season, with a 14-6-1 ATS record in away games. Over their last 14 contests, the Pistons are 10-4 ATS, demonstrating consistent competitiveness even against strong opponents. Notably, only two of their four recent losses have been by more than four points, emphasizing their ability to stay within striking distance.

While Houston has been solid this season, their ATS record as a home favorite sits at just 9-8, indicating some inconsistency in covering larger spreads. The Rockets may ultimately secure the win, but with Detroit's resilience on the road and ability to keep games close, the Pistons look like a strong play to cover the +8 line.

Betting Indicators

• Road ATS Strength: Pistons are 14-6-1 ATS on the road, one of the best road ATS records in the league.

• Recent Form: Detroit is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games, staying competitive against a variety of opponents.

• Houston’s ATS Struggles: Rockets are only 9-8 ATS as a home favorite, highlighting their inconsistency in covering larger spreads.

Projection

Rockets 112, Pistons 107

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies

Pick: Grizzlies -6 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The Grizzlies have shown they can dominate even without Ja Morant, who missed Friday's game with a sore foot. Memphis cruised to a 28-point blowout win over the Spurs on Friday, showcasing their depth with Santi Aldama leading the charge with 29 points. Even if Morant is unavailable, Memphis has proven capable, as evidenced by their recent road win over Minnesota on January 11, where Jaren Jackson Jr. took center stage with 33 points while Morant contributed only 12.

Minnesota has been inconsistent, losing 3 of their last 5 games. The Timberwolves may also be without Rudy Gobert (ankle), or he could be limited, further weakening their interior defense. Memphis has been dominant at home, while Minnesota's recent form leaves much to be desired, making the Grizzlies a strong pick to cover the spread.

Betting Indicators

• Home Dominance: Memphis has been excellent at FedEx Forum, consistently covering spreads.

• Depth Stepping Up: The Grizzlies have shown they can win big even without Morant, as seen in Friday's performance and their prior victory over Minnesota.

• Minnesota's Struggles: Timberwolves have dropped 3 of their last 5 games, with potential availability issues for Rudy Gobert further hindering their chances.

Projection

Grizzlies 115, Timberwolves 106

NBA: Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks

Pick: Hawks +6.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The Hawks have been surging, winning three straight and four of their last five, including an impressive OT win against the Celtics on Saturday night. Trae Young has been unstoppable, leading Atlanta in scoring eight of the last nine games, including a 43-point explosion against the Suns. The Hawks are also performing well on the road, with recent wins in tough environments like Boston and Chicago.

Meanwhile, the Knicks have been inconsistent in January, covering the spread just three times in their last nine games. Despite a dominant win over the Bucks, New York has shown vulnerabilities, particularly on the defensive end, where they’ve struggled to maintain the intensity Tom Thibodeau's teams are known for. Atlanta's current form and ability to capitalize on defensive lapses make them a strong underdog in this spot.

Betting Indicators

• Hawks' Road Success: Atlanta has won back-to-back road games in challenging environments.

• Trae Young’s Form: Young is averaging over 30 points per game in his last five outings, leading Atlanta’s offense effectively.

• Knicks' Defensive Concerns: New York has failed to maintain defensive consistency, covering just three of their last nine games.

• Hawks’ Momentum: Atlanta has won four of five, building momentum during a crucial stretch of the season.

Projection

Hawks 112, Knicks 110