September Surge: Another Winning Day Sets Up Strong Finish for BrownBagBets

Yesterday was the late-September boost we needed. We went 7-4 on our NCAA plays, finishing the day 8-5 overall, and locking in a much-needed winning day. Thanks to our disciplined approach and selective picks, our bankroll is now sitting at 108% of our starting amount for the month. That’s exactly how we like to operate here at BrownBagBets—targeting long-term growth, managing our bankroll with precision, and steadily working towards passive income month after month.

For us, it’s never about chasing a single win or getting caught up in the highs and lows of individual plays. Our approach is simple: manage your wagers, track the data, and make every pick count. This is how we help our community of like-minded sports fans grow their bankrolls without constantly having to refill them. We stay the course, and the profits come.

As we move into today, we’re focused on some exciting matchups. We’ve got our eyes on a major EPL clash between Tottenham and Manchester United, along with a full slate of NFL games on deck. With just two days left in September, we’re in a strong position to close out another winning month and head into October, where playoff MLB will take center stage.

Let’s keep this momentum going and finish September strong. Another winning month is within reach. Let’s get it!

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Pick: Rams +3 / Wager: 4%

Line Movement: The line shifted from Bears -1.5 to -3, hitting a key number. This indicates a potential overreaction to early betting on the Bears, making the Rams an appealing option.

Coaching and Quarterback Advantage: Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford bring experience and resilience, especially in challenging situations. Their ability to win despite injuries gives the Rams an edge over the Bears.

Bears’ Offensive Struggles: Chicago’s offensive line issues severely impact their run game and pass protection. If they can’t establish the run or effectively manage the blitz, it will hinder their offensive flow.

Close Game Anticipation: This matchup is likely to be low-scoring, emphasizing the importance of the quarterback discrepancy. The Rams have the tools to keep it competitive, making the +3 spread valuable.

NFL: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Falcons -2 / Wager: 4%

Overvaluation of the Saints: The New Orleans Saints started the season strong, but their offensive performances in weeks 1 and 2 have left them overvalued. In week 3, they were brought back to reality, managing only 12 points at home against a struggling Eagles secondary. The Saints were outgained by over 200 yards, with QB Derek Carr throwing for under 150 yards. This significant drop in offensive production raises concerns about their ability to bounce back against a more formidable opponent.

Difficult Matchup for Carr: Carr now faces the NFL’s best safety duo in Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates. This elite secondary will likely stifle any attempts for the Saints to regain their offensive momentum, making it challenging for them to find success down the field. The combination of a struggling offensive line and a potent Falcons defense could lead to further struggles for New Orleans.

Atlanta’s Offensive Upside: The Falcons have the potential to find their rhythm on offense, particularly as they build on their recent performances. With a solid ground game and playmakers capable of making big plays, they are well-positioned to exploit the Saints’ defensive vulnerabilities. Backing the Falcons as the home team in this matchup provides great value, especially considering the current line.

NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Pick: Texans -6.5 / Wager: 4%

Home Advantage: Playing at home significantly benefits the Texans after a challenging game in Minnesota. The atmosphere and familiarity with the field will boost their performance.

Matchup Insights: Houston’s receiving trio presents a strong challenge for Jacksonville’s secondary, which has struggled in man coverage. C.J. Stroud’s ability to exploit this mismatch can lead to substantial offensive gains.

Team Dynamics: Both teams suffered tough losses in Week 3, but the nature of those losses differs. The Texans faced a formidable Vikings defense, while the Jaguars’ issues appeared more systemic—highlighting poor coaching and execution against the Bills.

Assessment of Jaguars: After their embarrassing defeat, there are concerns about the Jaguars’ overall team strength. If they struggled against a strong team like Buffalo, it’s reasonable to expect a similar outcome against a resurgent Houston squad. The Texans are positioned to capitalize on Jacksonville’s vulnerabilities.

NFL: Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Over 47 / Wager: 4%

Offensive Boost from Dalton: Andy Dalton provided a significant lift to the Panthers last week, revitalizing their offensive flow. Facing his former team adds extra motivation, and with the Bengals’ defense struggling to contain opposing offenses, this matchup could lead to a shootout.

Defensive Struggles: The Bengals have exhibited defensive vulnerabilities, as seen in their inability to stop the Commanders last week. Meanwhile, the Panthers' defense has been porous, allowing big plays and scoring opportunities. With both defenses lacking consistency, expect ample chances for points.

Increased Chemistry for the Bengals: With Tee Higgins returning for his second game, the Bengals’ offense should be more in sync. The presence of elite receivers creates mismatches that the Panthers will struggle to cover. Joe Burrow is poised to exploit these matchups effectively.

Projected High Scoring: Given the current trajectory of both teams, this game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. I anticipate the total surpassing 50 points, making alternative totals a worthy consideration for those looking for additional value.

NFL: 2 Team ML Parlay - Bengals ML + Steelers ML @ +150 / Wager: 2%

Bengals’ Urgency: While no game in September can be labeled as a must-win, this matchup is as close as it gets for the Bengals, who are currently 0-3 straight up and face a critical game against Baltimore next week. With Carolina’s defense struggling, and safety Jordan Fuller ruled out, QB Joe Burrow is expected to find the end zone regularly. Andy Dalton had a solid outing last week in place of the injured Bryce Young, but the absence of ailing WR Adam Thielen will hinder Carolina’s offense. Cincinnati possesses a wealth of knowledge on Dalton, allowing them to effectively contain him.

Steelers’ Dominance: The Steelers bring a physicality and strength that will pose significant challenges for the Colts, who struggle to defend the run and have shown limited overall defensive capability. With Justin Fields gaining confidence each week and the Steelers’ run game set to break out, Pittsburgh is poised for success. Mike Tomlin’s record of 25-6 against rookie quarterbacks further solidifies their chances, as Anthony Richardson fits that mold. The Steelers have covered the spread in six consecutive games and hold a 7-3 ATS record on the road since the start of last season. This matchup feels like a home game for Pittsburgh, where their dominant defense will likely confuse the young QB and limit the Colts’ offensive flow. Additionally, the Steelers are starting to see their wide receivers step up downfield, and their kicker has been a standout performer.

NFL: Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Pick: Jets -7 / Wager: 4%

Significant Opponent Upgrade: The Broncos are coming off a breakout game from QB Bo Nix and currently boast one of the better defenses in the league, allowing just 4.5 yards per play. However, this matchup presents a significant upgrade in opponent quality with Aaron Rodgers leading the Jets’ offense. Unlike Nix’s experience against the weaker Tampa defense, the Jets field a healthier and more robust defensive unit.

Defensive Challenges for Denver: Following a second straight road game and an impressive win, the Broncos may struggle offensively in this matchup. The Jets rank eighth in points scored per drive, even after facing tough defenses in their opening games. Additionally, news of Denver’s leading tackler Alex Singleton being out for the season with a torn ACL compounds their defensive challenges.

Rest and Preparation Advantage: The Jets will benefit from extra rest after their dominating win over the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Broncos are practicing this week in West Virginia, rather than returning home after their upset victory in Tampa, which could disrupt their routine.

Motivation to Perform: With Sean Payton’s previous criticism of Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett during Hackett’s tenure in Denver, the Jets will likely aim to make a statement. Last year, they defeated the Broncos 31-21 at home, although Rodgers did not play in that matchup. Expect the Jets to come out strong and deliver a similar performance against a struggling Broncos offense.

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Saquon Barkley over 77.5 rushing yards / Wager: 3%

Historical Performance Against Eagles: Saquon Barkley has consistently exceeded 77.5 rushing yards.

With the Eagles potentially missing at least one key wide receiver on Sunday, Barkley will become an even more vital component of the offense, increasing his opportunities to rush effectively.

Injuries Impacting Tampa Bay’s Defense: The Buccaneers’ run defense may not be at full strength, as rookie Calijah Kancey has yet to play this season, and Vita Vea’s status is questionable. While Vea’s presence is significant, the absence of both players could allow for greater rushing lanes, especially for a dynamic runner like Barkley.

High Usage Anticipated: Given the circumstances, it’s reasonable to expect that Barkley will receive a high volume of carries. He has demonstrated his capability for big plays, and the Eagles’ O-line has proven adaptable. Notably, in a tougher matchup without right tackle Lane Johnson, Barkley averaged 9.6 yards per carry last week, underscoring his ability to thrive even when faced with adversity.

NFL: Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Over 48.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. over 73.5 receiving yards / Wager: 2%

Defensive Struggles: Both the Commanders and Cardinals have shown significant weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball. Washington’s defense has been porous, allowing 436 yards and 33 points to the Bengals and 392 yards with 37 points to the Buccaneers in previous matchups. Arizona has also been involved in high-scoring affairs, with their games totaling 62 and 51 points this season. Expect both teams to struggle in containing the opposing offenses, leading to a shootout atmosphere.

High-Scoring Trends: The Cardinals have been explosive at home, going 7-2-1 to the over since the start of 2023, with an average game score of 51. The Commanders have also been involved in high-scoring road games, averaging over 53 points per game in the same span. The combination of dynamic offenses and questionable defenses sets the stage for a back-and-forth battle.

Explosive Play Potential: Both teams boast young, athletic quarterbacks who are eager to make big plays. Jayden Daniels has showcased his ability to create explosive plays, and with both teams likely prioritizing their passing attacks, expect plenty of opportunities for scoring. The only potential hiccup would be if either team’s run game finds success, limiting possessions, but I’m betting that one team will hit 30 points, and the other won’t be far behind.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Matchup: With tight end Trey McBride likely out due to a concussion, Marvin Harrison Jr. stands to benefit from increased targets. His targets have ramped up from 3 to 8 to 11, indicating he’s becoming a focal point in the offense. Washington’s secondary has struggled against top wideouts, as seen with Malik Nabers (10-127-1) and Ja’Marr Chase (6-118-2) in the last two weeks. This line for Harrison is too low; I believe it should be closer to 83.5 yards, making the over an enticing option.

NFL: New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Patriots +10.5 / Wager: 2%

Injury Concerns for San Francisco: Double-digit spreads are a rarity this early in the season, especially for a favorite that is significantly banged up. The 49ers are missing key offensive weapons in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. Even with QB Brock Purdy at the helm, his effectiveness is hampered by a sore back and the lack of a full offensive arsenal. Without these stars, San Francisco’s offense is far from dominant.

Defensive Vulnerabilities: San Francisco’s defense has not been as imposing as in previous seasons. They currently allow the third-most yards per snap and rank second in most conversions on third down. This inefficiency opens the door for the Patriots to exploit weaknesses, especially given that New England’s offense can capitalize on these opportunities.

Patriots’ Resilience: The Patriots are not the train wreck many projected them to be in the preseason. They managed to secure a win in their opener and narrowly lost in overtime in their second game. This resilience indicates that they are capable of keeping games close, even against stronger opponents.

Value in the Spread: Given the current injury situation and San Francisco’s defensive issues, this line feels inflated. The Patriots should not be getting double digits against a struggling 49ers team. A line in the single digits would better reflect the teams’ current situations, making the +10.5 a valuable wager for those looking to back New England.

NFL: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Bills +2.5 / Wager: 2%

Buffalo’s Dominant Performance: The Bills have started the season strong at 3-0 and have gone 2-1 against the spread. Their only misstep came against the Cardinals, where they were favored by -6.5 and still managed to win by six. This team is scoring at will, with a fast-paced offense that seldom requires their punter to step onto the field.

Confident Offense: Josh Allen is on fire, having thrown for seven touchdowns with no interceptions so far. The Bills’ ability to score quickly keeps the pressure on opposing defenses. While Baltimore is certainly a step up in competition, the confidence and firepower of the Bills should not be underestimated.

Ravens’ Inconsistencies: The Ravens haven’t fully hit their stride yet this season. Despite being competitive, they’ve shown vulnerability, particularly highlighted by their recent loss to the Raiders. Buffalo’s high-octane offense poses a unique challenge that may exploit Baltimore’s inconsistencies.

Value in the Spread: With the Bills playing so well and Baltimore still figuring things out, the +2.5 line feels like an overreaction to the Ravens’ reputation rather than their current form. Buffalo has proven they can hang with and outperform strong teams, making this spread an enticing opportunity to back the Bills.