BrownBagBets: Securing Wins with MLB, NCAAF & EPL Betting Picks

Yesterday was another example of how the BrownBagBets approach keeps delivering results. Despite going 3-3 overall, our proprietary bankroll intelligence approach came through again, allowing us to secure a positive day. MLB continues to be a reliable profit center for us, going 3-1 on the night and adding to our growing list of successful baseball bets. With just three days left in September, we’re holding strong, with our bankrolls sitting just above 100% of where we started.

That’s the beauty of our approach—hundreds of bets placed throughout the month, and we’re not just holding on; we’re winning. It’s a long game, and we’re here to prove that smart plays, well-managed risk, and strategic adjustments lead to success over time.

Looking ahead, we’re excited about today’s betting slate. We have 11 NCAAF games that have caught our eye, and with the MLB season winding down, we’re sure to find a handful of solid plays as teams make their final push toward October. And with EPL back on the table, there’s no shortage of options. Keep an eye out for what we like there as well.

Let’s close out September strong and continue stacking those wins!

English Premier League: Brighton at Chelsea

Pick: Over 3.5 Goals @ +115 / Wager: 2%

Attacking Styles Favor Goals: Brighton, under Roberto De Zerbi, is renowned for their expansive, attacking football, consistently generating chances while leaving gaps defensively. Chelsea, despite their inconsistencies, has showcased promising attacking potential under Mauricio Pochettino, especially with talents like Raheem Sterling and Mykhailo Mudryk. This dynamic sets the stage for a match likely to see multiple goals.

Defensive Vulnerabilities: Both Brighton and Chelsea have faced challenges at the back this season. Brighton’s attacking approach often leads to goals conceded, particularly against teams with strong forward lines. Chelsea has struggled to maintain clean sheets due to injuries and fluctuating defensive form, making them susceptible to conceding.

Recent Head-to-Head Trends: Historical matchups between Brighton and Chelsea have frequently resulted in high-scoring games. Last season’s encounters featured a total of 4 goals in Brighton’s 4-1 victory and a 2-1 win for Chelsea. Given both teams’ offensive capabilities and defensive lapses, another goal-heavy matchup is highly probable.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

Pick: Giants -1.5 @ +135 / Wager: 4%

Blake Snell’s Dominance: Backing the Giants when Blake Snell is on the mound has proven to be a solid strategy. In September, Snell has been outstanding, posting a 1.00 ERA over four wins, contributing to seven consecutive Giants victories in games he started. His last eight starts have seen him maintain an impressive 1.31 ERA, showcasing his effectiveness on the hill.

Recent Form and Momentum: The Giants have been in great form, winning seven of their last eight games before a setback against Arizona on Wednesday. Their offensive support combined with Snell’s current form positions them well to cover the spread against the Cardinals.

Capable Opponent Pitching: While Andre Pallante has pitched well for St. Louis, allowing just one run and five hits across 14 innings in his last two starts, the Giants’ recent performance and Snell’s elite status should give them the edge. The Giants are in a must-win situation as they chase postseason aspirations, making this a critical game for their confidence and playoff hopes.

NCAAF: Maryland at Indiana

Pick: Under 52 / Wager: 2%

Weather Impact: Indiana’s potent passing attack has excelled in favorable conditions, but Saturday’s forecast calls for all-day rain, which could severely hinder their aerial game. Additionally, brisk winds may further complicate throwing situations, making it difficult for both teams to establish an effective passing offense.

Strength of Schedule Consideration: Indiana’s impressive No. 5 national ranking for air yards has come against weaker opponents, collectively winning only four games. This suggests that their passing statistics might be inflated and not reflective of their true capabilities when facing more competitive defenses like Maryland.

Defensive Performance: On the other side, Indiana boasts a solid defense that has allowed the second fewest yards in the Big Ten. This defensive strength could limit Maryland’s scoring opportunities, as they may struggle to gain yards and points in adverse weather conditions.

NCAAF: Western Kentucky at Boston College

Pick: Western Kentucky +8 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Western Kentucky ML @ +275 / Wager: 1%

Line Movement Insight: This line has shifted significantly from +13 to +8, indicating sharp money coming in on Western Kentucky. We initially had our eyes on the money line when it was at +350, but now with the current odds, it’s prudent to grab both the points and the value on the money line.

Offensive Performance: Since their game against Alabama, Western Kentucky has averaged an impressive 480 yards per game. This offensive production positions them as a credible threat against Boston College, especially if they can establish momentum early.

Potential Upset Alert: The SportsLine Model predicts a closely contested game, suggesting that Boston College is on upset alert. Given the recent form of Western Kentucky, it’s plausible they could pull off the upset. While we recommend taking the points for safety, there’s definitely value in the money line bet for those looking for a bigger payout.

NCAAF: Oklahoma State at Kansas State

Pick: Kansas State -4.5 / Wager: 3%

Home Team Advantage: In Big 12 matchups this season, the home team has a strong 7-2 record straight up, highlighting the significance of playing at home. Kansas State is looking to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play, adding urgency to this matchup.

Defensive Comparison: Kansas State boasts a robust run defense, allowing only 83.3 yards per game, which is significantly better than Oklahoma State’s 180.3 yards allowed. This defensive strength will be crucial in limiting Oklahoma State’s offensive effectiveness.

Recent Trends: Kansas State’s strong home performance, combined with their solid defensive stats, suggests they are well-positioned to secure a victory. I project Kansas State to win by a score of 30-22, covering the spread in the process.

With their strong defense and home field advantage, Kansas State presents a compelling case to cover the -4.5 line.

NCAAF: Ball State at James Madison

Pick: James Madison -20.5 / Wager: 3%

Momentum from Last Game: James Madison is riding high after a dominant performance against North Carolina, showcasing their capability to perform at a high level. This momentum should carry into their next game.

Coaching Stability: Coach Rob Chesney has a proven track record of keeping his teams focused and prepared, minimizing the risk of a letdown after a big win. His ability to motivate players will ensure they stay sharp against Ball State.

Matchup Considerations: James Madison’s depth and talent should overpower the Cardinals. Expect them to maintain their intensity and avoid complacency, making -20.5 a solid wager in this matchup.

NCAAF: TCU at Kansas

Pick: Kansas -1.5 / Wager: 5%

Line Value: The spread is surprisingly low given Kansas’s performance in their last few games. Despite their 0-4 ATS record, they’ve been competitive in every matchup, indicating they should be favored more significantly.

Turnover Analysis: Kansas’s struggles can be attributed to Jalon Daniels’ six interceptions in the last three games. However, if he can limit turnovers, the team is poised for a breakout performance, especially at home.

Recent Performance: TCU has faltered against UCF and SMU, raising questions about their consistency. Kansas has shown resilience and the ability to compete against stronger opponents, which bodes well for their chances in this matchup.

Home Field Advantage: Playing at home, Kansas will benefit from the support of their fans, giving them a crucial edge in a matchup that both teams need to win.

With strong potential for improvement and favorable conditions, Kansas offers great value to win this game.

NCAAF: Western Michigan at Marshall

Pick: Marshall ML / Wager: 4%

Defensive Matchup: Western Michigan’s defense has been porous, allowing an alarming 38.3 points per game, making them one of the worst in the nation. This provides Marshall an opportunity to exploit their defensive weaknesses.

Offensive Struggles and Key Injuries: While Marshall has faced its own offensive challenges, Western Michigan is dealing with significant injuries. Top wide receiver Kenneth Womack remains sidelined, and star running back Jalen Buckley’s status is uncertain after missing a recent game. This limits the Broncos’ offensive firepower.

Common Opponent Insight: Marshall’s performance against Ohio State, where they dominated time of possession despite a loss, contrasts sharply with Western Michigan’s heavy defeat (56-0) against the same opponent. This suggests Marshall’s ability to compete effectively, even in tough matchups.

Line Movement Consideration: The drop from -230 to a more favorable price may reflect market sentiment, but the matchup strongly favors Marshall, making the money line a solid play.

NCAAF: Colorado at UCF

Pick: Colorado +15.5 / Wager: 3%

Star Power: Colorado boasts elite talent in Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, who can change the course of a game. Their ability to make big plays keeps them competitive against stronger opponents.

Dynamic Offenses: UCF’s RJ Harvey and KJ Jefferson provide a strong offensive threat, particularly in the run game. However, Colorado’s defensive adjustments and playmakers can help limit their effectiveness.

Tendency for Overextension: Teams often play more conservatively against Colorado, which can lead to tighter games than expected. This tendency supports the idea that Colorado will stay within the spread.

Value in the Line: A 15.5-point spread may not reflect Colorado’s capability to compete, especially given their talent and the potential for a high-scoring game. This makes the spread appealing.

NCAAF: Oklahoma at Auburn

Pick: Oklahoma -1.5 / Wager: 3%

Turnover Differential: Oklahoma leads the nation in takeaways with 12, while Auburn tops the charts in giveaways with 14. This stark contrast in turnover margin is crucial in determining the outcome of the game.

Bowl Eligibility Stakes: Both teams are likely viewing this matchup as a must-win to bolster their chances of bowl eligibility. With tough schedules ahead, securing this victory is essential for both programs.

Freshman Quarterback Advantage: Freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. is set to make his first start for the Sooners. His potential to lead the offense effectively will be critical in securing a win against Auburn.

Projected Score: With Oklahoma’s defense capitalizing on Auburn's turnover issues and a new quarterback making his debut, the prediction is Oklahoma 27, Auburn 17.

NCAAF: Louisiana Tech at Florida International (FIU)

Pick: FIU +3 / Wager: 3%

Home Underdog Value: It’s surprising to see Louisiana Tech favored on the road, especially considering our model predicts FIU to win by five points. This presents a compelling case for backing the Panthers as underdogs in their home stadium.

Struggles of Louisiana Tech: Louisiana Tech has struggled significantly this season, with their only win coming against FCS opponent Nicholls by just one score. Additionally, they currently hold a troubling minus-8 turnover differential, which highlights their inability to protect the football and capitalize on opportunities. Their recent record reflects further issues, with a dismal 1-19 mark in their past 20 road games.

FIU’s Defensive Prowess: The FIU defense has been impressive, ranking eighth nationally and leading Conference USA with six interceptions. This defensive capability will be crucial in capitalizing on Louisiana Tech’s turnover issues. Moreover, FIU’s wide receiver Eric Rivers is a dynamic playmaker, averaging 21.33 yards per catch and already boasting six receptions of at least 20 yards, adding an extra dimension to their offense.

NCAAF: South Alabama at LSU

Pick: South Alabama +22.5 / Wager: 3%

Home-Field Advantage: While LSU's home environment provides a strong advantage, especially for a night game, this boost may not be enough to justify the hefty spread against South Alabama.

Overhyped LSU Team: LSU has not covered the spread in their last five games with QB Garrett Nussmeier at the helm, indicating that they may be overhyped this season.

Offensive Firepower: South Alabama has been impressive offensively, scoring 135 points in their last two games. With an average of 502 yards per game (13th in the nation) and 235 yards rushing at an impressive 6.9 yards per carry, they are a formidable opponent.

Effective Quarterback Play: Quarterback Gio Lopez is currently running the offense effectively, which bodes well for South Alabama as they look to keep the game competitive.

By considering these factors, South Alabama is positioned to cover the spread effectively in this matchup against LSU.