Final Push: MLB Doubleheader and Monday Night Football to Close September Strong

Today is a crucial one for us at BrownBagBets. After a tough Sunday that saw us drop 12% of our bankroll, we’re sitting at 96%—down from 108%. Yesterday’s NFL plays didn’t go our way, finishing 3-7, but that’s all part of the game. As we always say, it’s not about winning every day; it’s about winning the month. And as we look to close out September, we’re focused on making today count.

The MLB regular season has wrapped up for most teams, but not for the Mets and Braves. Today’s doubleheader at Truist Park will decide the final two NL wild-card spots. Both teams can secure their place if they split, but if one sweeps the series, the Arizona Diamondbacks will sneak in. It’s a high-stakes day for baseball, and we’re ready to dig into these games and find the value.

On the NFL side, Week 3 closes out tonight with a rare Monday doubleheader. First up, the Tennessee Titans (0-3) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-2) at 7:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Seattle Seahawks (3-0) taking on the Detroit Lions (2-1) at 8:15 p.m. ET. We’ve got predictions and plays lined up for both games across multiple markets.

We may have taken a hit, but we’re not down and out. Today is all about getting back in the green and closing September the right way. Let’s finish strong!

MLB: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (Game 1)

Pick: Mets +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Strategic Importance of Game 1:

Both teams will be giving their all in this opener to avoid putting themselves in a tough position for Game 2. The stakes are high, and each team aims to secure a favorable spot, making this a crucial matchup. The Mets will be looking to capitalize on this opportunity.

Braves’ Pitching Strategy:

The Braves are holding out Chris Sale for this game, as they ideally want him available for the Wild-Card Round on Tuesday. This decision significantly tilts the advantage in favor of the Mets, who can exploit the absence of one of the league’s top pitchers.

Strong September Performances:

Both starting pitchers, Tylor Megill for the Mets and Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves, have excelled in September. Their recent form suggests a potential for a tightly contested game, leaning toward a low-scoring affair.

Anticipated Close Contest:

Given the quality of both pitchers and the stakes of the game, it’s reasonable to expect a one-run contest. By taking the Mets +1.5, you give yourself a cushion, allowing you to win even if the game ends in a close finish. The likelihood of a tight score makes this wager an appealing choice regardless of the final outcome.

NFL: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Pick: Under 38 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Titans +2.5 / Wager: 2%

Quarterback Concerns for Miami:

The Dolphins are likely to be playing without a seasoned quarterback, as Tyler Huntley is new to the team and may be taking the snaps. His inexperience combined with the uncertainty surrounding the offensive line, particularly with Terron Armstead possibly out due to concussion protocol, significantly limits Miami’s offensive potential. This situation points towards a conservative offensive game plan.

Titans’ Offensive Struggles:

Tennessee’s offense has struggled mightily, failing to score more than 17 points in any game this season. Both teams lean heavily on their rushing attacks, which contributes to longer drives and fewer possessions. The Titans’ defense has shown resilience and can bounce back after an off week, keeping scoring to a minimum.

Field Goal Fest Anticipation:

With both teams aiming to establish the run, this matchup is shaping up to be a defensive battle. The Titans’ defense is currently allowing just 4.7 yards per play and ranks fifth in net yards per pass attempt, setting the stage for a low-scoring game. Historically, two of Miami’s three games this season have seen totals at 37 points or lower, reinforcing the expectation of a field-goal-heavy contest.

Value in Titans’ Cover:

For the Titans to succeed, quarterback Will Levis must avoid critical mistakes. A healthier DeAndre Hopkins could help, but the key is that Tennessee’s defense should keep them in the game. Taking the Titans +2.5 is a strong play, especially given the uncertainty in Miami’s quarterback situation. If the line dips to +1.5, it’s advisable to grab it while you can, as this matchup could swing in either direction.

NFL: Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

Pick: Lions -3.5 / Wager: 5%

Market Overvaluation of Seattle:

The Seahawks are receiving more respect than they deserve in the betting market, largely due to their strong start against weaker opponents. Wins over the Broncos and Patriots were narrow, and their most recent victory against a depleted Dolphins team lacks substance. Only one cover in their first three games raises concerns about their consistency and ability to dominate.

Lions’ Defensive Resurgence:

Detroit’s defense has shown signs of improvement, allowing just 277 total yards in a solid 20-13 win against the Cardinals last week. This performance reflects a team capable of shutting down opposing offenses and suggests they are primed for a strong showing at home.

Revenge Factor:

This matchup serves as a revenge spot for the Lions, who were haunted by a late pick-6 from Jared Goff that led to an overtime loss against Seattle last season. Detroit controlled much of that game and will be motivated to avenge that heartbreaker.

Historical Context:

The Seahawks have dominated the recent series, winning the last six meetings with the Lions, with Detroit’s last victory dating back to 2012. However, the tides may be turning as the Lions are poised to finally claim a win against their NFC rivals.

Lions’ Potential for Improvement:

While the Lions are currently 2-1, they have yet to play their best football. They’ve managed to persevere even while not performing at peak efficiency. With the home crowd behind them and the Seahawks facing a tougher challenge than they have encountered thus far, it’s time for Detroit to assert themselves and for Seattle to be exposed for their inflated record.