September Recap: Winning the Month, MLB Playoffs, and October Strategy Ahead

Last night couldn’t have gone much better for the BrownBagBets family. While a 4-0 sweep would’ve been ideal, we’re more than happy with the strong 3-1 showing we put up on Monday night. After Sunday’s NFL action dropped our bankrolls below the 100% mark, the pressure was on to close out September with a win—and we delivered when it mattered most.

The Lions covering in a blowout with a 5% play was the biggest winner of the night, bringing us back to positive territory. With the official close of September, our bankroll sits at 101% of where we started—so you know what that means. It’s time to log into your betting accounts, take out some cash, and enjoy the extra income! This is what we work for every month—disciplined betting, smart plays, and ultimately, the passive income that comes from staying the course. You earned it!

September was another proof of concept for what BrownBagBets is all about. We’re not chasing wins on a daily basis—we’re playing for the month, building sustainable, long-term gains without needing to constantly deposit more cash. And yet again, the strategy paid off. This marks 2024 as a winning year overall, with 6 winning months out of 9. The worst case? Breaking even for the entire year—but with momentum like this, we’re confident we’ll continue to grow.

As we reflect on September, it truly was a tale of two sports. MLB carried us through, just like it has all season long, particularly in the final weeks of the regular season. We closed September with a net gain of around 40% ROI on our baseball plays, which helped us stay strong when football was shaky. Unfortunately, NCAAF and NFL plays wiped out some of that MLB profit, but we adjusted. The last Saturday of NCAAF was proof that our fine-tuning is working, and last night’s NFL picks show we’re back on track for football.

As we turn the page to October, we have zero time to rest. The MLB playoffs kick off today, and we’ve got a full slate of Champions League matches to dive into. We’ve been in the lab all night getting ready to kick off October with a bang. Let’s keep the momentum rolling, family—it’s time to make October another winning month!

Champions League: Brest at RB Salzburg

Pick: Salzburg ML / Wager: 1%

Salzburg's Recent Form:
Coming off a dominant 3-0 victory against Sparta Prague, RB Salzburg looks poised to bounce back after a rocky start in the Champions League. Despite their previous match where they were outplayed while still managing a solid scoreline, Salzburg's resilience at home remains a key factor. They have remained unbeaten at their venue since April, indicating a strong home advantage.

Brest's Inconsistency:
While Brest secured a 2-1 win over Sturm Graz in their last Champions League outing, their overall inconsistency in Ligue 1 raises concerns. They struggle to maintain form away from home, which is critical in a competition like this. Their defensive lineup, featuring veteran defenders Jordan Amavi and Kenny Lala, hasn't been enough to stabilize their performance, particularly under the management of Eric Roy, whose limited experience in the role is evident.

Offensive Prowess of Salzburg:
Salzburg boasts a competent offensive strategy, averaging over 18 shots per game with eight on target in the Austrian Bundesliga. This ability to create scoring opportunities is likely to be crucial against Brest, who have shown vulnerabilities in defense, particularly on the road. With players like Stefan Bajcetic stepping up in the attacking roles, Salzburg can exploit any weaknesses in Brest’s backline.

Betting Insights:
The odds favor Salzburg not just because of their home advantage but also due to Brest's struggles in high-stakes matches. Given Salzburg’s experience in the Champions League and their current form, they appear well-equipped to secure a victory against a Brest side that has yet to prove themselves in this context.

Champions League: Celtic at Borussia Dortmund

Pick: Dortmund -1.5 @ +120 / Wager: 1%

Dortmund's Strong Start:
Borussia Dortmund kicked off their Champions League campaign in impressive fashion, securing a dominant 3-0 victory over Club Brugge. This performance not only showcased their offensive prowess but also highlighted their defensive solidity. As the runners-up in last season’s Champions League, Dortmund brings a wealth of experience and quality to the pitch that sets them apart from their opponents.

Quality Comparison:
While Celtic will enter the match with confidence after a 5-1 thrashing of Slovan Bratislava, the Scottish side faces a significant challenge against a team of Dortmund's caliber. The differences in squad depth, technical ability, and experience are notable, with Dortmund having superior players in key positions. This match-up represents a substantial step up for Celtic, which may struggle to cope with the intensity and quality of play expected from the Bundesliga giants.

Home Advantage at Westfalenstadion:
Playing at home in Westfalenstadion gives Dortmund an added advantage. The atmosphere there is electric, and the team thrives in front of their passionate supporters. This factor is crucial, as home-field advantage often translates into enhanced performances, particularly in high-stakes matches like the Champions League.

Expectations for the Match:
Given Dortmund's current form and their ability to control games effectively, a comfortable victory is anticipated. The odds of +120 for a -1.5 handicap make this an enticing option, especially considering the disparity in quality between the two teams. Expect Dortmund to dominate possession and create numerous scoring opportunities, ultimately leading to a multi-goal victory.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros -1.5 @ +155 / Wager: 2%

Experience Matters:
As the Tigers make a surprising playoff push, their inexperience in high-stakes situations could be a significant disadvantage against the seasoned Astros. Houston's postseason experience is a key factor, and they’ve consistently shown the ability to perform under pressure. This experience will be invaluable as they navigate the playoffs, giving them the edge in this matchup.

Pitching Matchup:
Tigers' pitcher Tarik Skubal has emerged as a strong contender for the AL Cy Young award, but his track record against the Astros raises concerns. Skubal has posted a 4.26 ERA in two starts against Houston this season. Notably, his performance at Minute Maid Park was less than stellar, allowing four runs and six hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 4-0 loss back in June. This history suggests that the Astros can exploit any weaknesses he presents.

Astros' Dominance:
On the other side, the Astros will send Framber Valdez to the mound, who has been lights out lately. He boasts an impressive 1.65 ERA since the start of August and has led Houston to victory in 14 of his last 16 starts. Valdez's ability to keep runs off the board and navigate tough situations will be crucial in this matchup, particularly against a Tigers lineup that may struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Game Context:
With the stakes high for both teams, the Astros' playoff pedigree and Valdez's recent form make them formidable opponents. The combination of Houston's offensive power and their ace on the mound sets the stage for a potential blowout. Given the +155 odds on the -1.5 run line, there’s strong value in betting on the Astros to secure a multi-run victory.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Orioles ML / Wager: 2%

Corbin Burnes’ Dominance:
The Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes for a reason, and they need to capitalize on his start to maintain their playoff aspirations. Burnes, a former NL Cy Young winner, has been lights out lately, boasting a 1.29 ERA over his last six starts. His experience in high-pressure playoff situations with the Brewers adds an invaluable asset to the Orioles' rotation. The Orioles must secure a win with Burnes on the mound; otherwise, they could find themselves in a tough spot with limited pitching depth.

Offensive Edge:
While the Royals’ Cole Ragans has been performing well lately, he lacks the playoff experience that Burnes brings. The Royals have struggled mightily at the plate, finishing September as the lowest-scoring team in MLB, averaging just 2.96 runs per game. This lack of offensive production makes it difficult for them to compete against a stronger lineup. Even if Kansas City gets slugger Vinnie Pasquantino back, he may not be at full strength just a month after fracturing his right hand.

Pitching Matchup:
I view the starting pitchers and bullpens as relatively even, but the Orioles have a significant advantage in offensive firepower. With a deep lineup capable of producing runs, the Orioles should be able to capitalize on any mistakes made by Ragans. The combination of Burnes’ current form and the Orioles’ offensive prowess makes them the clear favorites in this matchup.

MLB: Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres

Pick: Padres -1.5 @ +140 / Wager: 2%

Braves’ Pitching Crisis:
The Braves are in a tough spot with their pitching staff severely depleted after a doubleheader on Monday. Starting Ian Anderson, who hasn't thrown an MLB pitch since 2022, highlights the dire situation. This kind of uncertainty on the mound often spells trouble, especially in playoff scenarios. Given the circumstances, the Braves are facing a monumental challenge against a formidable opponent.

Padres’ Second-Half Surge:
The Padres have established themselves as the best second-half team in baseball, showcasing a strong performance as they head into the playoffs. Their roster is loaded with talent and momentum, making them a tough matchup for any team. With the Braves’ pitching woes, the Padres are poised to capitalize on this opportunity.

San Diego’s Pitching Strength:
While the Braves are struggling to find a reliable starter, the Padres will likely rely on Michael King, who finished the regular season with an impressive 2.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over his final seven regular-season starts. This kind of stability on the mound can significantly tilt the game in San Diego's favor.