October Kicks Off with MLB Playoffs and Champions League Action

October has officially begun, and if yesterday was any indication, we’re in for an exciting month. The MLB Wild Card Playoffs kicked off with some surprising upsets, and BrownBagBets was ready, hitting the ground running as we aim for another winning month. With the postseason baseball heating up, we’re gearing up for another day of playoff action on the diamond.

But that’s not all—today also brings us Matchday #2 of the Champions League, offering a world of opportunities to find value in both soccer and baseball. As always, we’ve done the work, analyzed the numbers, and prepared our best picks for the day. We can’t wait to keep this October momentum rolling, and it starts again today!

Champions League: Atletico Madrid at Benfica

Pick: Atletico ML @ +170 / Wager: 1%

Diego Simeone’s Champions League Expertise:

Atletico Madrid has a strong pedigree in the Champions League under Diego Simeone, making this matchup intriguing. The team’s tactical discipline and experience in high-pressure situations give them an edge. Historically, Atleti thrives in knockout competitions, and this is a perfect opportunity for them to showcase their capabilities.

Recent Form and Confidence Boost:

After a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Real Madrid in El Derbi over the weekend, Atletico’s confidence is bolstered. This result against their city rivals not only shows their resilience but also suggests that they are ready to compete at a high level. New signings Julian Alvarez and Conor Gallagher are already making a significant impact, adding depth and creativity to the squad.

Benfica’s Challenges Against Quality Opponents:

While Benfica is accustomed to competing at the top of the Portuguese Primera, facing Atletico Madrid presents a different challenge. The Eagles have been involved in a tight race with Sporting Lisbon and Porto for domestic supremacy, but they may struggle to keep pace with Atleti’s experienced players, particularly against a seasoned goalkeeper like Jan Oblak. Oblak’s ability to make crucial saves in high-stakes matches will be vital for Atletico’s success.

Value in the Betting Line:

The +170 odds for Atletico Madrid to win offer great value, considering their pedigree, recent form, and the impact of key players. While a draw could be a reasonable outcome, backing Atleti to secure a win seems like a solid bet given their historical success in the competition and the challenges Benfica faces.

Champions League: Monaco at Dinamo Zagreb

Pick: Monaco ML / Wager: 2%

Dinamo Zagreb’s Struggles:

Dinamo Zagreb’s recent performance in the Champions League has been concerning, particularly following their staggering 9-2 defeat to Bayern Munich in their opening match. This humiliating loss not only places them at the bottom of the group but likely affects their confidence heading into this encounter with Monaco. Such a defeat can have lingering psychological effects, especially when facing a formidable opponent.

Monaco’s Strong Start:

In contrast, Monaco began their Champions League campaign on a high note with an impressive 2-1 victory over Barcelona. This win has set the tone for their season, and they carry significant momentum into this match. Moreover, Monaco has been in excellent form domestically, securing five wins and a draw in their first six Ligue 1 matches. This consistency and winning mentality bode well as they travel to Zagreb.

Current Form and Quality:

Monaco’s attacking prowess and solid defense make them a tough challenge for any opponent. With players in form and the confidence stemming from their recent successes, they are likely to exploit Dinamo Zagreb’s defensive vulnerabilities. The combination of Monaco’s attacking capabilities and Dinamo’s shaky morale creates a favorable environment for an away win.

Champions League: Bayern Munich at Aston Villa

Pick: Bayern ML / Wager: 2%

Bayern’s Current Form:

This Bayern Munich side is firing on all cylinders under the guidance of Vincent Kompany. They remain unbeaten across all competitions this season, and despite a recent 1-1 draw against defending league champions Bayer Leverkusen, they are eager to return to winning ways. With their strong start, Bayern has shown resilience and skill, making them a formidable opponent.

Key Player Availability:

A significant boost for Bayern is the availability of star striker Harry Kane, who had a minor ankle tweak last weekend. Kane’s performance in the Champions League opener was stellar, netting four goals in a 9-2 rout of Dinamo Zagreb. His presence on the field can significantly influence the outcome, as he adds firepower to Bayern’s already potent attack.

Aston Villa’s Challenge:

While Vincent Kompany brings a wealth of experience from his playing days at Manchester City, Aston Villa faces a tough challenge against a team that has outscored opponents 30-5 in all competitions this year. Villa will be playing at home for the first time in 41 years in a Champions League match, which could create an electric atmosphere, but they may also feel the pressure.

Concerns About a Draw:

The only concern for Bayern is the potential for a draw, given the historical significance of the match for Aston Villa. However, with their current form and a star player like Kane on the pitch, Bayern Munich is well-equipped to collect all three points on the road.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros -1.5 @ +125 / Wager: 3%

Houston’s Experience Under Pressure:

The Astros are no strangers to high-stakes playoff situations, having reached the ALCS for seven consecutive seasons. Now facing a must-win scenario, their experience and resilience come into play. This isn’t the time for the Astros to falter; they understand the urgency of the moment and have the depth and talent to perform under pressure.

Hunter Brown’s Dominance:

On the mound, Hunter Brown presents a formidable challenge for the Royals. He has effectively neutralized the Tigers’ offense in their two previous meetings this season, boasting an impressive 0.75 ERA over 12 innings with only one earned run allowed. While that performance was a while ago, it reflects his ability to dominate when it counts. Brown’s ability to deliver strong performances, particularly in clutch situations, is a key factor in this matchup.

A Rebounding Opportunity:

After an early loss in the series, this game serves as an opportunity for the Astros to bounce back. By increasing our wager to 3%, we aim to compensate for the earlier setback while also taking advantage of the favorable odds. The Astros’ urgency to secure a win will drive their performance, especially with a talented pitcher like Brown on the mound.

Kansas City’s Inconsistencies:

While the Royals have shown flashes of competitiveness, they lack the consistency needed to match the Astros’ firepower, particularly in crucial games. Houston’s lineup, bolstered by playoff veterans, has the capacity to exploit Kansas City’s weaknesses. This is not a team that can rely on Tarik Skubal’s performance every day, and the Astros are likely to capitalize on that fact.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Royals ML @ +140 / Wager: 2%

Pressure Factors on the Orioles:

The Orioles have not experienced playoff success in a decade, and their recent performance at home indicates they may struggle under pressure again. A lackluster showing on Tuesday highlighted their inability to handle critical situations. This season, particularly in the second half, has shown signs of naivety, and the weight of expectations seems to be weighing heavily on this young team.

Concerns with Zach Eflin:

Zach Eflin’s late announcement as a starter raises some red flags. His last outing featured unusual command issues, suggesting that something might be off. When Eflin faced the Royals in July, he struggled significantly, and there are concerns that he might replicate that performance under the heightened stakes of a playoff atmosphere.

Royals’ Bullpen Advantage:

The Royals possess a more reliable bullpen compared to the Orioles, which can be crucial in tightly contested playoff games. The ability to control the late innings can often make the difference between winning and losing, especially in a three-game wild card series where every game carries immense significance.

Orioles’ Struggles with Runners in Scoring Position:

Baltimore’s inconsistency with runners in scoring position has been evident for months. The fact that they haven’t capitalized on opportunities to drive in runs raises doubts about their ability to perform when it counts. With key players like Adley Rutschman struggling and becoming an automatic out, the Orioles may find it challenging to generate offensive production in clutch moments.

Historical Context in Short Series:

Historically, three-game wild card series often result in sweeps. While the sample size is small, it reflects the intensity and unpredictability of postseason play. Given the current trajectory of both teams, the Royals present good value as underdogs, especially considering the Orioles’ track record in high-pressure scenarios.

MLB: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Mets ML / Wager: 2%

Pick: Over 7.5 / Wager: 2%

Pitching Matchup Favors the Mets:

In this matchup, the Mets have a significant edge on the mound with Sean Manaea taking the hill against Aaron Civale. Manaea has shown flashes of brilliance, and facing a Brewers lineup that has been inconsistent can set him up for success. Civale, on the other hand, has struggled at times, providing the Mets an opportunity to capitalize on any mistakes he makes. Sean Manaea has allowed five runs to the Brewers in his last start, so they know how to get to him.

Edwin Diaz’s Impact:

The return of Edwin Diaz to the bullpen is a game-changer for the Mets. Having him available for potentially two innings not only bolsters their relief options but also instills confidence in the rest of the pitching staff. His presence at the back end of games can be the difference-maker in tight contests, especially if the Mets can keep the game close.

Offensive Momentum:

The Mets’ offense is riding a wave of momentum, showing improvement and a renewed sense of confidence. This recent surge in productivity gives them a fighting chance against any pitching staff. If they can continue to generate runs and capitalize on scoring opportunities, they can overwhelm the Brewers and secure the win. Milwaukee’s season is on the line, and while they out-hit the Mets yesterday, they struggled to capitalize with runners in scoring position.

High Scoring Potential:

New York’s bats are hot and should be able to get to Frankie Montas, who owns a 4.95 home ERA. This matchup sets up well for a high-scoring game, making the over a solid consideration. Given the stakes, expect both teams to play aggressively, leading to more runs on the board.

MLB: Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres

Pick: Padres ML / Wager: 2%

Pick: Under 7 / Wager: 3%

Joe Musgrove’s Dominance:

Joe Musgrove has been outstanding since returning from injury, boasting a stellar 2.15 ERA over his last nine starts and allowing a mere .553 OPS. His performance at home has been particularly impressive, surrendering just one earned run or less in five of his final seven outings at Petco Park, culminating in a 2.03 ERA. With Musgrove on the mound, the Padres are in a strong position to control the game.

Braves’ Struggles and Injuries:

The Braves are running on fumes, grappling with a slew of injuries that have left them in a tough spot. Already, we see a narrative for this series that could serve as an epitaph for the Braves, who are clearly impacted by Chris Sale’s unavailability. This has forced Brian Snitker to use raw 21-year-old rookie AJ Smith Shawver at the outset, which contributed to a 4-0 loss last night. Max Fried is now the presumptive ace of the Braves staff for this series and has been effective, allowing just 1 ER and 8 hits across 14 2/3 IP (0.61 ERA) in his last two starts. However, Fried’s playoff ERA of 4.57 raises concerns, particularly given his earlier struggles against the Padres, where he allowed nine hits in just 4.1 innings.

Padres’ Recent Form:

The Padres are playing with confidence, showcasing a 21-9 record in their last 30 home games. They possess a potent lineup loaded with players who excel in clutch situations, including Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. With their elite bullpen backing Musgrove, the Padres are poised to capitalize on any opportunities presented by the Braves.

Low-Scoring Potential:

Given the pitching matchup and both teams’ recent performances, expect a lower-scoring game. The Braves have struggled to find their offensive rhythm amid injury troubles, while Musgrove’s form suggests he can stifle their bats. This matchup is ripe for a tight contest, leading us to back the under at 7 runs.

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