Steady Wins: BrownBagBets Delivers Consistent MLB Success & Gears Up for NCAAF Action

Last night’s Thursday Night Football didn’t go quite as planned. Our -5 play ended in a push, and while a few of our calls missed the mark, we did manage to hit one prop. But, as we’ve learned over time, it’s always about balance. And true to form, our reliable MLB plays came through again, finishing the night 3-1 and making sure the evening wasn’t a complete wash.

This is what makes the BrownBagBets approach so effective—we stay steady and don’t rely on just one sport or one night to define success. Betting, just like life, is about adjusting when things don’t go your way, and last night, baseball was our safety net.

As we shift focus to today, we’re feeling confident with a couple of strong NCAA football plays. We’ve got our eyes on the Virginia Tech vs. Miami (FL) showdown, as well as Washington heading to Rutgers. Of course, we’ll be looking at a few more late-season MLB games where we’ve been consistently finding value.

With September coming to a close, it’s all about finishing strong and setting ourselves up for another winning month. Let’s close this week out on a high note and keep the momentum rolling as we head into the final weekend!

NCAAF: Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)

Pick: Miami -18.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis: Miami is off to a strong start, boasting a 4-0 record with three covers, while their offense is explosive, ranking third nationally with an average of 605 yards per game and 8.8 yards per play. Cam Ward is emerging as a Heisman contender, having thrown for 404 yards last week, showcasing his increasing comfort and skill.

Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is struggling at 1-3 against the spread and has significant issues to address. Given Miami’s offensive prowess and their ability to dictate the pace of the game, the spread feels conservative.

Line Value: You see value in laying the points at -18.5, as you would have set the line at -20.5. Miami’s talent level and current form suggest they can win by at least three touchdowns against a vulnerable Hokies team.

NCAAF: Washington at Rutgers

Pick: Washington +2.5 / Wager: 3%

Line Value: Washington is currently undervalued given their 3-1 record despite significant roster changes, including a new head coach. The odds suggest they are still adjusting, but they have the potential to outperform expectations.

Defensive Strength: Washington’s defense ranks No. 7 nationally, allowing only 237 yards per game. This strong defensive performance should keep them competitive against Rutgers.

Quarterback Impact: Will Rogers has stepped in as the new quarterback, and his presence can stabilize the offense as they refine their game plan. His experience is crucial for the team’s development moving forward.

Recent Performance: While Rutgers has secured wins against weaker opponents, their victories do not reflect the same level of competition that Washington has faced. The Huskies are poised to show their superiority in this matchup.

Washington is better than their early-season narrative suggests, and they are set to prove it this Friday.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 2%

Post-Series Fatigue: The Marlins recently concluded a tough series against the Twins, effectively eliminating Minnesota from the wild card race. With no spoiler role left to play and the added strain of international travel, Miami may enter this game with diminished motivation.

Bullpen Exhaustion: Miami's bullpen took a significant hit during Thursday’s 13-inning victory, which could impact their performance in this matchup. This exhaustion may lead to increased vulnerability against a potent Toronto lineup.

Pitching Advantage: Toronto’s Jose Berrios is in outstanding form, boasting a 1.51 ERA over his last eight outings and a solid 2.69 ERA at home this season. His current momentum positions him well to dominate the Marlins' lineup.

Rest Factor: The Blue Jays enjoyed a day off on Thursday, allowing them to come into this game fresh and ready to capitalize on Miami's potential fatigue.

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox

Pick: Rays ML @ +115 / Wager: 4%

Nick Pivetta’s Recent Performance: Just two starts ago, Nick Pivetta faced the Tampa Bay Rays in Tampa, where he initially performed well. However, he encountered difficulties in the fifth inning, resulting in his removal from the game after allowing three home runs. This inconsistency raises concerns about his ability to contain the Rays’ potent offense.

Rays’ Offensive Threat: The Rays are known for their ability to capitalize on pitching struggles, and with Pivetta’s recent history against them, they are well-positioned to exploit any mistakes he makes. Tampa Bay’s lineup is capable of producing runs, especially against a pitcher who has shown vulnerability.

Value as Road Underdog: Given the circumstances and Pivetta’s track record, taking the Rays as a slight road underdog at +115 presents solid value. The potential for a bounce-back performance from the Rays in this matchup adds to the appeal of this wager.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves
Pick: Braves -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 2%

Weather and Travel Concerns: The potential for adverse weather due to Hurricane Helene raises questions about whether this game will be played. If it does go ahead, the Royals' travel complications could impact their performance.

Reliever Exhaustion: The Royals recently swept the Nationals, but they overextended their bullpen by utilizing their best reliever, Lucas Erceg, in each game. His unavailability for Friday’s game could significantly weaken their pitching options, especially late in the game.

Desperation Factor: The Braves are in a more desperate position in the wild card race and are well-rested after rainouts earlier this week. This break allows them to approach this game with fresh legs and full energy.

Starting Pitching Advantage: Max Fried is in excellent form, boasting a 2.88 ERA in four starts this month. His performance will be critical against a Royals lineup that may struggle against a top-tier pitcher.

MLB: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Rangers -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 4%

Jacob deGrom's Return: Jacob deGrom is making his comeback after Tommy John surgery, and his early September starts have shown promise with a 1.35 ERA across 6.2 innings. This indicates he’s regaining form, which bodes well for the Rangers.

Reid Detmers' Struggles: On the other hand, Angels pitcher Reid Detmers has been struggling significantly, with a staggering 17.19 ERA in his recent outings. This poor performance has contributed to the Angels’ struggles, particularly in blowout losses to teams like the White Sox and Astros.

Angels' Franchise Record: The Angels set a franchise record for losses (96) after a recent defeat to the White Sox, and another loss against Texas would officially mark their worst season in history. This creates an environment of pressure and desperation for the Angels, which could further impact their performance.

Rangers' Opportunity: With deGrom on the mound and the Angels in disarray, the Rangers have a solid opportunity to capitalize on their opponent’s struggles and secure a comfortable victory.