Saturday Sports Madness: BrownBagBets Best Value Plays for Today

Let’s be honest—not every day will be a winner, but yesterday was far from disastrous. What matters most is how we manage the tough days, and this is where the BrownBagBets system shines. Thanks to disciplined volume betting and our bankroll intelligence, we weathered the losses without taking any major hits, keeping us firmly in the game.

We’re still 1-0 in college football playoff plays, and that’s a bright spot to build on as we look ahead to the three CFP matchups on today’s slate.

Progress Over Perfection:

Here’s the truth about sports betting: you don’t need to win every day to come out ahead in the long run. The key is consistency and discipline, and that’s what we focus on every single play. Even when the results aren’t perfect, we trust our process to guide us back on track.

The NFL remains our nemesis for now, but today gives us two Saturday games to explore, analyze, and, hopefully, turn things around. And with strong performances in NCAAB, NHL, and NBA recently, there’s no shortage of opportunities to dig into what works and keep building.

Today’s Slate – A Packed Saturday Schedule:

• College Football Playoff Games:

With three matchups on today’s CFP slate, we’ll continue our strong start, looking to extend our 1-0 record in playoff plays.

• Saturday NFL Action:

Two games on tap provide us with an opportunity to recalibrate our NFL strategy and address the challenges we’ve faced in this sport.

• NCAAB, NHL, and NBA:

These leagues continue to deliver opportunities, and today’s slates are no different. We’ll lean into the confidence levels our system provides to identify high-value plays across the board.

Final Thought – Trust the Process, Stay the Course:

Not every day is a home run, but this is why we play the long game. With discipline, focus, and the right indicators guiding our picks, we’re always positioned to bounce back. Today’s slate gives us a chance to do just that, with plenty of action across CFP, NFL, and our more consistent leagues like NCAAB, NHL, and NBA. Let’s attack the board and keep building toward a strong finish to the year.

English Premier League: Manchester City at Aston Villa

Pick: City ML @ +120 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Aston Villa’s strong home form and last season’s win over Manchester City in this fixture might suggest value on the home side, but a deeper dive reveals why backing City is the smarter play. Under Pep Guardiola, Manchester City thrives in high-pressure situations, often bouncing back emphatically when their dominance is questioned. City’s league-leading possession percentage (66%) and passing accuracy (90%) allow them to control the tempo and create high-quality scoring opportunities, even in challenging away fixtures.

Aston Villa has been effective at home but remains defensively vulnerable, conceding 1.4 goals per match on average. That sets the stage for City’s relentless attack, powered by Erling Haaland, Phil Foden, and Julian Alvarez, to exploit gaps in Villa’s backline. While Villa averages 14 shots per game, City significantly outpaces them with 18, underscoring their consistent ability to create chances.

Villa has been impressive but lacks the defensive solidity required to shut down a tactically astute and offensively potent side like City. Guardiola’s teams are known for making adjustments in these situations, and with the motivation to respond after recent criticism, City should secure the win.

Indicators:

• Statistical Edge: City dominates possession and creates more chances than Villa, underlining their offensive superiority.

• Managerial Tactics: Guardiola’s strategic adjustments and ability to exploit opponents’ weaknesses make City a dangerous opponent in must-win scenarios.

• Head-to-Head History: City has won 14 of their last 17 meetings against Villa, emphasizing their historical dominance.

• Defensive Vulnerabilities: Villa’s tendency to concede makes them susceptible to City’s high-pressing, relentless attack.

Projection:

Expect Manchester City to take control of the game early, leveraging their superior ball control and chance creation to break down Villa’s defense. While Villa may find opportunities on the counter, City’s overall quality and tactical execution should see them prevail.

Final Score Projection: Manchester City 2, Aston Villa 1.

NCAAF - College Football Playoff: #10 Southern Methodist University (SMU) vs #4 Penn State (PSU)

Pick: Penn State -8.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Penn State has been one of the most consistent teams in the nation, evident from their narrow loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. Their physical dominance in the trenches on both sides of the ball gives them a clear edge over SMU. The Mustangs, while a high-powered offense, have shown a tendency to struggle in turnover margin when playing away from Dallas, which could be catastrophic against a disciplined team like Penn State.

Penn State also excels at controlling game tempo with their run game and defense, ranking among the top in total defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, SMU’s defense is unlikely to hold up against the balanced attack led by Penn State’s experienced quarterback and elite running back duo. Sharp betting movements on the Nittany Lions further affirm the value in this play.

Indicators:

• Trench Advantage: Penn State’s offensive and defensive line superiority sets the tone, especially against SMU’s weaker front seven.

• Turnover Concerns: SMU struggles with giveaways on the road, something Penn State’s opportunistic defense can exploit.

• Sharp Action: Professional wagers aligning with Penn State bolster confidence in this line.

• Defensive Edge: PSU’s top-tier defense matches up well against SMU’s high-paced offense, particularly in limiting explosive plays.

Projection:

Penn State’s ability to dominate in the trenches, control the clock, and capitalize on turnovers should lead to a decisive victory. SMU’s offensive prowess may keep it competitive for a half, but Penn State pulls away late.

Final Score Projection: Penn State 38, SMU 24.

NCAAF - College Football Playoff: #16 Clemson at #3 Texas

Pick: Texas -12 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

This game features a clash between Clemson’s solid 12th-ranked offense (454 yards per game) and Texas’ elite defense, which ranks third nationally, allowing just 249 yards and 12.5 points per game. Clemson’s resume this season is underwhelming for a playoff team, with losses to South Carolina, Louisville, and Georgia, alongside a narrow win over SMU in the ACC Championship Game. Conversely, Texas boasts a far more challenging schedule, with its only two losses coming against Georgia.

Texas has shown the ability to dominate games when given time to prepare. In their three games this season with extended preparation, they averaged 45 points while conceding fewer than 20. The Longhorns’ balanced attack on offense, led by a high-powered passing game and a punishing ground attack, should overwhelm a Clemson defense that has struggled against elite offenses.

Indicators:

• Defensive Dominance: Texas’ defense, ranked third nationally, is designed to contain offenses like Clemson’s, limiting explosive plays and dominating at the line of scrimmage.

• Offensive Balance: Texas’ ability to both air it out and run the ball efficiently ensures Clemson will struggle to defend consistently.

• Preparation Success: Texas has proven deadly when given time to prepare, averaging 45+ points per game in similar scenarios this season.

• Playoff Trends: Double-digit favorites in the College Football Playoff are 8-0 ATS, and no underdog of this size has kept it closer than 17 points.

Projection:

Expect the Longhorns to control this game from the start, dominating on both sides of the ball. Clemson has not faced a defense or offense of this caliber in 2024, and it will show. Texas’ superior talent, preparation, and home-field advantage should lead to a commanding victory.

Final Score Projection: Texas 38, Clemson 17.

NCAAF - College Football Playoff: #7 Tennessee at #6 Ohio State

Pick: Tennessee +7.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

This highly anticipated playoff matchup pits Tennessee’s explosive offense against an Ohio State team looking to redeem itself after a disappointing loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes’ offense averages over 35 points per game, but their banged-up offensive line is a major concern against Tennessee’s formidable defensive front. Tennessee’s ability to disrupt Ohio State’s run game could force QB Will Howard into high-pressure situations, which has led to inconsistencies this season.

The Volunteers have shown they can adapt to various game scripts, with a balanced offense led by their effective rushing attack and a defense that thrives in the trenches. Tennessee’s physicality and ability to control the clock with their ground game make them a tough matchup for an Ohio State team that relies heavily on explosive plays.

Indicators:

• Run Game Advantage: Tennessee’s physical rushing attack is built to compete with Ohio State’s defense, which has struggled to contain strong ground games this season.

• Defensive Front Matchup: Tennessee’s defensive line is a strength, and they should have success pressuring Ohio State’s injury-riddled offensive line and containing the run.

• Motivation and Resilience: Tennessee’s underdog mentality and versatility on offense position them well to compete in what should be a tightly contested game.

• Public Sentiment: Heavy public action on Tennessee is noteworthy, but professional money has also pushed the line to +7.5, showing value on the Volunteers.

Projection:

This game has all the makings of a nail-biter, with Tennessee’s balanced attack keeping them within striking distance throughout. While Ohio State’s playmakers will find success, the Volunteers’ ability to control the tempo and make this a physical game favors the underdog. Expect a close outcome decided by a field goal.

Final Score Projection: Ohio State 30, Tennessee 27.

NFL: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Under 43.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Texans +3.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup presents a compelling case for both the under and the Texans to cover, given the situational dynamics and team trends. Patrick Mahomes has been dealing with a lingering injury, and although he is on track to start following full practices, his effectiveness against Houston’s elite defense is a key concern. The Chiefs rank near the bottom in pace of play, and Andy Reid tends to employ a conservative game plan in lower-stakes scenarios, especially with a banged-up offensive line. This trend is reflected in Mahomes’ 12 unders in his last 16 home starts and the Chiefs' inability to light up the scoreboard consistently in recent weeks.

On the flip side, the Texans' defense has been formidable, ranking third in EPA per play allowed. Their pass rush is disruptive, and their secondary, anchored by Derek Stingley Jr., has been locking down receivers. Houston’s offense, led by rookie QB C.J. Stroud, lacks the explosiveness to turn games into shootouts, evidenced by their inability to exceed 23 points against the Jaguars and Dolphins in recent weeks. Joe Mixon’s heavy workload on the ground for the Texans also suggests a slower-paced game script that limits scoring opportunities.

The Chiefs’ run defense, which has allowed 5.0 yards per carry over the past three games, further bolsters the case for Houston keeping this game competitive. With Mahomes underperforming relative to expectations and Kansas City failing to show their usual dominance offensively, the Texans should be able to stay within the number, even on the road.

Indicators:

• Mahomes’ Injury & Conservative Game Plans: Mahomes has gone under in 12 of his last 16 home starts and all five games at home where the total was under 45.

• Elite Texans Defense: Houston ranks third in EPA per play allowed and features a red-hot secondary led by Derek Stingley Jr.

• Slow Pace & Run Reliance: Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play, with Houston leaning heavily on Joe Mixon to grind out games on the ground.

• Market Movement: The lookahead line at Chiefs -4 was based on a healthy Mahomes, and the current number reflects uncertainty around his effectiveness.

Projection:

Expect a low-scoring, tightly contested matchup in Kansas City. The Chiefs will struggle to establish offensive rhythm against Houston’s defense, while the Texans' methodical approach on offense keeps this game within a field goal.

Final Score Projection: Chiefs 20, Texans 17.

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Steelers +7.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Under 45 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Lamar Jackson over 48.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 2%
Pick: Derrick Henry over 17.5 Rushing Attempts / Wager: 2%

Analysis

The Steelers and Ravens renew their intense rivalry in what promises to be another hard-fought, low-scoring game. Recent history tells us all we need to know: Pittsburgh has dominated the series, winning eight of the last nine meetings and covering nine straight with Sunday’s spread. These AFC North showdowns are notoriously defensive battles, and the numbers support that: the last eight meetings have gone under the total, with the average game falling five points below the closing line.

While the Ravens boast the league’s No. 1 offense and the No. 3 scoring offense, the Steelers' defense is well-suited to challenge them. Pittsburgh ranks 9th overall, allows just 316 yards per game, and thrives on creating turnovers—leading the league in turnover margin. In the first meeting, the Steelers held the Ravens to 34 points combined and dominated the clock with over 36 minutes of possession. Additionally, Lamar Jackson struggled against the Steelers' defensive scheme, registering a 66.2 passer rating against them for his career.

Baltimore’s offensive efficiency will be tested in the cold weather, which forecasts high winds that could severely limit the passing game. The Ravens’ kicking game has also faltered in recent weeks, and their offensive line remains vulnerable against an elite Steelers front led by T.J. Watt. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin’s team is opportunistic and thrives in these physical matchups, especially with their edge on special teams.

On the ground, expect Lamar Jackson to assert himself more with designed runs and off-script plays. In their first meeting, he ran for 46 yards on just four carries, leaving additional yards on the table. Historically, Jackson averages over 65 rushing yards per game in December, and with the Ravens’ backfield struggling to establish consistency, he could easily lead the team in rushing.

On the other side, Derrick Henry is in line for a heavy workload. While he only carried 13 times in their first meeting, this game script likely favors a more methodical approach. Baltimore’s defense has improved against explosive plays but has been more vulnerable to sustained drives. Henry should benefit from fewer turnovers and a fresh body after a light workload last week.

Betting Indicators

• Steelers’ ATS Dominance: Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with Baltimore and has covered eight straight in this rivalry.

• Under Trends: The under has hit in eight straight matchups between these teams, with an average of just 39 points scored.

• Lamar Jackson Rushing Impact: Jackson has averaged over 65 rushing yards per game in December and should feature heavily in a game with adverse weather.

• Derrick Henry Usage: Henry’s workload should increase significantly after a light outing last week, especially given the Ravens' ability to limit big plays.

Projection

Expect another tightly contested AFC North battle, with Pittsburgh’s defense keeping the game close and their offense leaning on ball control. Lamar Jackson will have success with his legs but struggle through the air, and Derrick Henry will grind out yards in a methodical Ravens effort.

Final Score Projection: Ravens 20, Steelers 17

NCAAB: Southern Methodist Mustangs (SMU) at Boston College

Pick: Boston College +8.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Boston College presents a strong case to cover as a home underdog in this matchup. Both SMU and BC share identical 5-5 records against the spread (ATS) this season, but SMU’s performances away from Dallas have been far less convincing. The Mustangs are on a five-game true road losing streak dating back to last season, with their only success away from home coming on neutral courts. In their lone true road test this season, SMU fell 81-70 at Butler, struggling against the Bulldogs' physical frontline.

BC, under head coach Earl Grant, thrives on toughness and interior play. Chad Venning and Elijah Strong are key pieces who relish physical matchups, and their ability to disrupt SMU’s rhythm inside could dictate the pace. Venning, a bruiser from St. Bonaventure, and Strong, a versatile power forward, complement each other well and should give the Mustangs’ frontline plenty of trouble. Boston College’s willingness to engage in a physical game makes them a tough out at home, especially for an SMU team untested in such environments this year.

Additionally, this game could have distractions for SMU, as their football team plays a significant playoff game simultaneously. The Mustangs' focus might waver, giving BC even more leverage in what projects to be a tight contest.

Indicators:

• ATS Trends: Both teams are 5-5 ATS this season, but SMU’s road struggles tilt the scales toward BC.

• Road Performance: SMU has not won a true road game in over a year, a streak that includes a blowout loss at Butler this season.

• Interior Matchup: BC’s physical bigs match up well against SMU’s frontline, providing a clear edge in physicality.

• Venue Advantage: Conte Fieldhouse is a tough environment for visiting teams, and SMU is unlikely to dominate here.

Projection:

Boston College has the size and grit to keep this game close, if not outright steal a win. SMU’s away form is concerning, and while the Mustangs have the edge in talent, BC’s physicality and home-court advantage should allow them to hang within the spread.

Final Score Projection: SMU 75, Boston College 70.

NCAAB: Marquette at Xavier

Pick: Marquette ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

This matchup heavily tilts toward Marquette, particularly with Xavier missing key forward Zach Freemantle, who is out indefinitely with a leg injury. Freemantle, a 6-9 senior, was pivotal for the Musketeers, leading the team in rebounding (7.7 RPG) and contributing 16.9 points per game. His absence significantly impacts Xavier’s offensive flow and ability to control the boards.

While Xavier displayed admirable resilience in their overtime loss to UConn, that game was a better matchup for them. UConn's defensive tendencies allowed Xavier to stay competitive, but Marquette presents a different challenge. The Golden Eagles excel at guarding the perimeter and avoiding fouls, areas where Xavier could struggle without Freemantle's inside presence to draw defenders.

Marquette has historically had Xavier’s number, winning the last four meetings and boasting a 7-3 record over their last ten matchups. The Golden Eagles’ disciplined defense and ability to create efficient looks offensively give them a strong edge. Led by guard Tyler Kolek and their deep roster, Marquette should have the tools to secure a road win in this Big East battle.

Indicators:

• Freemantle’s Absence: Xavier loses its top rebounder and an essential offensive piece.

• Historical Edge: Marquette leads the all-time series 59-27 and has won the last four meetings.

• Defensive Matchup: Marquette’s ability to guard the perimeter and limit fouls neutralizes some of Xavier’s strengths.

• Road Form: Marquette has proven their mettle in road environments, further solidifying confidence in their ability to handle Xavier.

Projection:

Even with Xavier’s competitive effort against UConn, Freemantle’s absence will be too much to overcome against a sharp and efficient Marquette team. The Golden Eagles continue their dominance in this series with another solid win.

Final Score Projection: Marquette 78, Xavier 72.

NCAAB: Mississippi State at Memphis

Pick: Mississippi State ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:
Mississippi State enters this matchup with a clear edge on the defensive end, ranking as one of the nation’s most efficient teams at forcing turnovers. This spells trouble for Memphis, which has struggled all season to protect the basketball, especially against disciplined defensive units. The Bulldogs have thrived in games where they can dictate tempo, using their defensive intensity to create scoring opportunities in transition and disrupt the opponent’s offensive rhythm. Memphis, while competitive in close games, has shown vulnerability when matched against top-tier defensive teams, often failing to sustain offensive efficiency for a full 40 minutes.

This game also highlights contrasting recent form. Mississippi State has built momentum with sharp movement backing their money line, reflecting strong market confidence. Memphis, on the other hand, has benefited from favorable matchups but now faces a defensive juggernaut that can exploit their weaknesses. Over five different sharp movements have supported Mississippi State, making this an optimal spot to back the Bulldogs in a battle that should test both teams’ mettle.

Projection: Mississippi State 72, Memphis 68

NCAAB: University of Maryland - Baltimore County (UMBC) at Marist

Pick: Marist ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Marist enters this matchup with strong momentum, boasting a 7-2 record and an unblemished 4-0 home record. A victory tonight would give the Red Foxes their best start through ten games since the 2006-07 season, a significant historical milestone that adds to their motivation. Playing at McCann Arena, where they’ve been dominant this season, Marist has a clear edge over UMBC.

The Red Foxes’ success this season has been anchored by standout Josh Pascarelli, who is averaging 23.7 points per game. Pascarelli’s offensive versatility poses a considerable challenge for a UMBC defense that struggles, allowing 74.5 points per game—a figure that places them in the lower half nationally in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Marist’s defense has been solid at home, limiting opponents to just 70.7 points per game and excelling at controlling tempo.

UMBC has shown offensive flashes but continues to be inconsistent on the road. Their lack of defensive cohesion has been a recurring issue, and against a disciplined Marist squad that protects the ball well and wins the battle on the boards, those vulnerabilities could be costly. Marist’s ability to dictate pace and leverage their defensive efficiency should allow them to exploit UMBC’s weaknesses.

Indicators:

• Home Dominance: Marist is 4-0 at home this season and thrives on its home court advantage.

• Pascarelli’s Breakout Season: Averaging 23.7 PPG, Pascarelli has emerged as a premier scorer in the MAAC and is a matchup nightmare for UMBC.

• Defensive Edge: Marist’s defense, allowing just 70.7 PPG at home, contrasts sharply with UMBC’s struggles on the defensive end.

• Historical Motivation: A win would give Marist its best 10-game start in over a decade, adding intangible motivation to their tangible statistical advantages.

Projection:

Marist’s balanced play and home-court advantage should be enough to secure a win against a UMBC team that has struggled to find consistency, particularly on the defensive end. The Red Foxes’ efficient scoring, led by Pascarelli, and their ability to control the game’s tempo will propel them to another home victory.

Final Score Projection: Marist 77, UMBC 71.

NCAAB: University of California’s Los Angeles (UCLA) at University of North Carolina (UNC)

Pick: UCLA -1.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This clash between two historic programs highlights the differences in their current trajectories. UCLA enters this matchup as one of the most consistent teams in college basketball, boasting a 10-1 record and a 7-2 mark against the spread (ATS) over their last nine games. The Bruins’ success stems largely from their defense, which ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Their ability to force turnovers—leading the nation in this category—should cause significant problems for a UNC team that has struggled with ball security and offensive rhythm.

Conversely, North Carolina has been inconsistent this season, reflected in their 6-5 record and a troubling 1-6 ATS over their last seven games. The Tar Heels’ recent shooting woes, particularly from beyond the arc (22.5% over their last four games), further highlight their vulnerabilities against a UCLA defense that holds opponents to just 29.1% shooting from deep.

Key Matchup Considerations

• Pace Control: UCLA thrives in a deliberate, half-court style of play and has consistently slowed down high-tempo offenses like New Mexico and Arizona. This ability to dictate pace should neutralize UNC’s up-tempo approach, forcing the Tar Heels into uncomfortable offensive sets.

• Turnover Battle: Point guard Elliot Cadeau’s struggles with turnovers against disciplined defenses such as Michigan State and Alabama make him a prime target for UCLA’s pressure. The Bruins’ relentless on-ball defense is poised to capitalize on UNC’s mistakes, creating transition scoring opportunities.

• Perimeter Defense: With UNC struggling from beyond the arc and UCLA excelling in three-point defense, it’s unlikely the Tar Heels will find success through long-range shooting. This mismatch could lead to more contested shots and a reliance on inefficient offensive possessions.

Indicators

• ATS Trends: UCLA’s 7-2 ATS mark in their last nine games contrasts sharply with UNC’s 1-6 ATS in their last seven.

• Defensive Efficiency: UCLA ranks fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, further reinforcing their edge in this matchup.

• Model Projections: Every trusted model projects UCLA to win by 3 or more points, making the -1.5 line appealing.

Projection

UCLA’s ability to control pace, force turnovers, and limit UNC’s shooting efficiency gives the Bruins a clear edge in this matchup. While the Tar Heels have shown flashes of potential, their recent struggles against disciplined teams suggest they will have difficulty keeping up with UCLA’s structured style of play.

Final Score Projection: UCLA 71, UNC 65

NCAAB: Furman at Harvard

Pick: Furman ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Furman enters this matchup with a clear edge, riding the momentum of an impressive 11-1 record and a 10-1 stretch over their last 11 games. The Paladins have consistently demonstrated their ability to dominate offensively, ranking among the nation’s leaders in offensive efficiency. Their balanced attack, led by experienced guard play and a deep rotation, poses a significant challenge for a struggling Harvard team.

Conversely, Harvard has faltered this season, posting a disappointing 3-7 record and losing seven of their last nine games. The Crimson’s offensive inconsistencies and lack of depth have been glaring issues, particularly against disciplined and efficient teams like Furman. Harvard’s defense, while serviceable, lacks the ability to contain Furman’s dynamic scoring options, particularly on the perimeter.

Key Matchup Considerations

• Offensive Firepower: Furman’s well-rounded offense averages over 80 points per game, driven by strong shooting and excellent ball movement. Harvard’s defense ranks near the bottom of the Ivy League in defensive efficiency, which Furman is poised to exploit.

• Defensive Stability: The Paladins also excel defensively, holding opponents to just 42% shooting. This spells trouble for a Harvard offense that struggles with efficiency and ranks below average nationally in turnover rate.

• ATS and Momentum: Furman’s 7-2 ATS record over their last nine games underscores their reliability, while Harvard’s 1-5 ATS mark in December games highlights their inability to rise to the occasion against stronger competition.

Indicators

• KenPom Projection: Furman is projected to win by 5 points, supporting the value on the money line.

• Line Movement: Significant money flowing toward Furman underscores sharp confidence in the Paladins to win outright.

Projection

Furman’s efficient offense and disciplined defense provide a stark contrast to Harvard’s recent struggles. The Paladins should control the tempo and exploit the Crimson’s weaknesses, particularly in the half-court. Look for Furman to secure a comfortable win on the road.

Final Score Projection: Furman 74, Harvard 66

NCAAB: Kennesaw State at San Jose State

Pick: San Jose State ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:
San Jose State holds a strong edge with the combination of home-court advantage and a late tip-off that favors the Spartans. Hosting Kennesaw State at 10:30 p.m. ET places the Owls in an uncomfortable situation, as they’re playing well outside their usual body clock. Kennesaw has struggled on the road, dropping their only other two games away from metro Atlanta, including a 20-point loss to Santa Clara earlier in this West Coast trip.

San Jose State, meanwhile, has been red-hot, winning five of their past six games outright. The Spartans’ offense has been electric of late, eclipsing 100 points in back-to-back games (though one required overtime). Their ability to control the pace and capitalize on a travel-weary Kennesaw squad positions them for success. With the Spartans in strong form and Kennesaw still adjusting to playing on the road, the home side has the clear upper hand.

Projection: San Jose State 78, Kennesaw State 68

NBA: Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings

Pick: Austin Reaves Over 25.5 Total Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Austin Reaves has been thriving in his role with the Lakers, particularly in games where both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are active but not dominating usage. Reaves has surpassed this PRA line in 11 of 20 games playing alongside both stars, showing his ability to complement their play while carving out his own opportunities.

His recent performances further justify this pick, as Reaves has cleared 25.5 PRA in three straight games since returning from a pelvic injury, posting totals of 29, 29, and 35 PRA. Notably, the 35 PRA came against the Kings just two days ago, highlighting a favorable matchup against Sacramento's defense.

The Kings rank near the bottom of the league in defending spot-up shooters, a strength in Reaves’ offensive arsenal. Additionally, with D’Angelo Russell now coming off the bench, Reaves is likely to see increased ball-handling responsibilities, further bolstering his chances to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.

Key Matchup Considerations

• Spot-Up Shooting: Sacramento struggles to defend spot-up shooters, a play-type where Reaves excels.

• Increased Role: With Russell seeing fewer minutes, Reaves is positioned to take on more playmaking duties, increasing his assist potential.

• Recent Form: Reaves is playing with confidence and rhythm post-injury, evidenced by his consistent PRA production.

Indicators

• Line Consistency: Reaves has consistently hit this PRA mark when given a stable role alongside James and Davis.

• Matchup Edge: Sacramento’s defensive weaknesses align perfectly with Reaves’ strengths as a shooter and secondary playmaker.

Projection

Austin Reaves continues his efficient play, benefiting from Sacramento's defensive vulnerabilities and his expanded responsibilities. He should comfortably clear this line in what projects to be a high-paced, offensive matchup.

Final Projection: Austin Reaves 28 PRA

NBA 2-Team Parlay: Orlando ML + Memphis ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Leg 1: Orlando Magic ML
The Magic have been one of the most consistent teams at home this season, where they’ve been a dominant cover team. At 9-1 ATS as a favorite, the Magic have not only covered but done so convincingly, with an average margin of 6.8 points over the spread. They’ve also thrived on rest, posting a 15-9 ATS record with at least one day off. The Heat, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, going 5-6-2 ATS, and come into this game after a hard-fought home battle against OKC. Orlando's combination of defensive intensity and consistent home performances makes them a strong leg for the parlay.

Leg 2: Memphis Grizzlies ML
The Grizzlies are rolling, covering 10 of their last 13 games ATS and showing consistent offensive firepower, surpassing 110 points in 14 straight games. Against a Hawks team that ranks 21st in both defensive and offensive net rating at home, Memphis has a clear advantage, especially with their ability to push the pace and exploit Atlanta’s defensive lapses. The Hawks are just 4-9 ATS at home and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games, making Memphis the ideal complementary leg to Orlando.

Betting Indicators

• Magic at Home: Orlando is 9-1 ATS as a favorite and 15-9 ATS with a day of rest.

• Grizzlies’ Form: Memphis is 12-7 ATS as a favorite and 19-9 ATS overall, riding a 10-3 ATS streak in their last 13 games.

• Heat on the Road: Miami has struggled away from home with a 5-6-2 ATS record.

• Hawks' Home Woes: Atlanta is just 4-9 ATS at home and has failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games.

Projection

The Magic continue their strong home performance with a solid win over Miami, while Memphis capitalizes on Atlanta’s defensive shortcomings to secure a comfortable victory.

Final Projection: Orlando 112, Miami 103
Final Projection: Memphis 125, Atlanta 114

NBA: New York Knicks at New Orleans Pelicans

Pick: Knicks -7.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The Pelicans are in a downward spiral, having lost 14 of their last 15 games, with nine of those losses coming by eight or more points. This trend highlights their struggles on both ends of the court, with inconsistency on offense and lapses in defensive execution. Meanwhile, the Knicks are trending upward, buoyed by the return of Josh Hart, a critical piece who missed Thursday’s game due to personal reasons.

When these two teams last met, the Knicks dominated, securing a 33-point victory. While expecting such a lopsided result again might be ambitious, the Knicks' ability to exploit the Pelicans’ vulnerabilities makes a double-digit win entirely plausible. New York's balanced scoring and strong defense match up favorably against a Pelicans team that has been unable to find solutions during this stretch of poor form.

Betting Indicators

• Pelicans' Recent Struggles: 14 losses in their last 15 games, nine by 8+ points.

• Knicks’ Momentum: New York has covered effectively against weaker opponents and is strengthened by the return of Josh Hart.

• Head-to-Head: Knicks’ dominant 33-point win in their last meeting suggests a significant matchup advantage.

Projection

The Knicks continue their strong form and capitalize on the Pelicans' ongoing struggles, securing a comfortable road win.

Final Score Projection: Knicks 115, Pelicans 102