Regrouping After NFL Challenges: Bowl Games, NCAAB, and NHL Focus
Last Night’s Reflection – A Reminder to Refocus:
Let’s call it what it was: last night didn’t go our way. The NFL, once again, proved to be a challenge, keeping us guessing just when we thought we had things dialed in. But this is the reality of the game—no one gets it right every time. What matters is what we do next, and for BrownBagBets, what we do best is adjust, adapt, and execute.
On the bright side, NHL and NCAAB remain steady performers, carrying the weight and giving us plenty to build on. With 10 days left in December and the year, the stakes are high, but the opportunity to close strong is even higher.
Time to Be Heroes:
The path forward is clear: we double down on discipline, lean on our proprietary bankroll intelligence system, and focus on the confidence levels that have built this community into what it is. These next 10 days are about more than salvaging the month—they’re a chance to rewrite the story, finish strong, and inspire confidence going into 2025.
We won’t shy away from the NFL action on the horizon, but we’ll approach it thoughtfully and with the precision that sets us apart. Every play will have purpose, and every decision will reflect the standards we’ve set.
Today’s Slate – A New Chapter Begins:
Here’s what’s on tap for today:
College Bowl Games:
Cure Bowl and Gasparilla Bowl give us more opportunities to capitalize on bowl season value.
A high-stakes college football playoff matchup: #8 Indiana at #5 Notre Dame, a game rich with narrative and betting angles.
NCAAB and NHL:
Our steady performers this month continue to deliver opportunities, with a robust college basketball schedule and a solid NHL slate to analyze and attack.
NFL-Free Night:
With no NFL tonight, we can focus our attention on what’s been working, preparing ourselves for a disciplined and thoughtful approach to football as we head into the weekend.
Final Thought – The Finish Line Is in Sight:
Every great story has its challenges, and the next 10 days can be the chapter where we emerge as heroes. This isn’t just about numbers—it’s about staying true to the process, leveraging the tools that got us here, and finishing the year with the same discipline and focus that have defined BrownBagBets. Let’s lean in, lock in, and make today count.
NCAAF - Cure Bowl: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State
Pick: Ohio -5.5 / Wager: 3%
Analysis:
The Bobcats enter the Cure Bowl riding a wave of momentum, having won and covered in six consecutive games, including a decisive victory in the MAC Championship Game. Ohio’s offense has been firing on all cylinders during this stretch, averaging an impressive 38 points per game. On the defensive side, the Bobcats boast one of the nation’s elite units against the run, ranking fifth in rushing yards allowed per game (95.8) and tenth in yards allowed per carry. This stingy rush defense is well-suited to neutralize Jacksonville State's second-ranked rushing attack.
The departure of both head coaches injects some uncertainty into this matchup. Ohio’s long-time leader Tim Albin left for Charlotte, while Jax State’s Rich Rodriguez departed for West Virginia. However, the Bobcats’ consistent performance and strong bowl pedigree — five straight bowl wins — inspire confidence that they will remain focused and prepared under interim leadership.
Jacksonville State had an admirable season under Rodriguez, but they face a daunting challenge in this matchup. The Gamecocks lack the defensive prowess to contain Ohio’s balanced attack, and without their commanding head coach, they could struggle to execute against a battle-tested Bobcats squad.
Indicators:
Momentum: Ohio is on a six-game win and cover streak and has won five straight bowl games outright.
Defensive Matchup: Ohio’s top-five rush defense aligns well to counter Jax State’s run-heavy offense.
Coaching Impact: Rich Rodriguez’s departure looms larger for Jacksonville State, given his influential role in their success.
Trends: Ohio is 9-4 ATS this season and unbeaten as a money line favorite, highlighting their consistency.
Projection:
Ohio’s superior defense and offensive balance should allow them to control the game and capitalize on Jacksonville State’s transitional challenges. Look for the Bobcats to cover the spread comfortably. Final score projection: Ohio 35, Jacksonville State 20.
NCAAF - Gasparilla Bowl: Tulane vs. Florida
Pick: Tulane +11 / Wager: 3%
Analysis:
The unpredictability of bowl season often favors underdogs, and Tulane offers value in this matchup against Florida. The Green Wave might lack starting QB Darian Mensah, who transferred to Duke, but backup Ty Thompson brings intriguing potential as a former five-star recruit. Thompson has shown promise as a run-first quarterback, which could help Tulane control the pace of the game, shorten possessions, and keep Florida’s offense off the field. With key contributors WR Mario Williams and RB Makhi Hughes expected to play, Thompson has enough weapons to generate offensive production.
Defensively, Tulane’s rigid unit is well-equipped to limit Florida’s scoring opportunities. Despite losing their final two games, Tulane showcased impressive form during an eight-game SU winning streak, including several dominant performances. Florida’s season has been inconsistent, and while they earned a bowl berth, their success came against the backdrop of a brutal SEC schedule. Freshman QB D.J. Lagway has shown flashes, but his inexperience could be a liability against Tulane’s disciplined defense.
Indicators:
Coaching Trends: Florida coach Billy Napier is 0-4 ATS in bowl games, raising concerns about his team’s readiness in this setting.
Underdog Advantage: Bowl games often favor double-digit underdogs due to the variance inherent in postseason matchups.
Key Players: Ty Thompson’s dual-threat capabilities and the presence of Mario Williams and Makhi Hughes provide Tulane with a balanced offensive attack.
Defensive Matchup: Tulane’s defense, which excelled during their midseason winning streak, could pose problems for Florida’s young QB.
Projection:
Tulane’s combination of a capable backup QB, a solid defense, and a controlled pace should keep this game competitive. While Florida has the firepower to win, the double-digit spread feels excessive given the dynamics at play. Final score projection: Florida 27, Tulane 17.
NCAAF - College Football Playoff: #8 Indiana at #5 Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame -6.5 / Wager: 4%
Analysis:
Indiana’s unexpected playoff appearance is an exciting story, but a deeper dive into their resume reveals a significant gap in quality compared to Notre Dame. The Hoosiers have benefitted from a favorable schedule, having faced few top-tier opponents. Their one true test against Ohio State resulted in a blowout loss by over three touchdowns, casting doubt on their ability to compete at this level.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, has been arguably the most complete team in college football since mid-September. The Fighting Irish combine offensive discipline and defensive prowess, which allows them to dictate the pace and style of play. This matchup favors their strengths, particularly their ability to control the line of scrimmage. With a powerful running game led by Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Riley Leonard, Notre Dame can dominate time of possession and keep Indiana’s offense off the field.
Defensively, Notre Dame’s secondary is well-equipped to limit Indiana’s passing game. The Hoosiers rely heavily on their aerial attack, but they’ll face a disciplined and physical Irish defense that excels in man-to-man matchups and has thrived in big-game settings. The cold weather in South Bend further tips the scales in Notre Dame’s favor, making it a true home-field advantage.
Indicators:
Strength of Schedule: Notre Dame faced and defeated significantly stronger opponents, while Indiana’s schedule lacks quality wins.
Line Movement: At -6.5, this line offers value, with many projecting Notre Dame closer to -9 at home.
Matchup Edge: Notre Dame’s elite rushing attack and secondary alignment counter Indiana’s strengths.
Big Game Experience: The Irish have thrived in high-pressure situations, while Indiana is unproven against top-tier opponents.
Projection:
Notre Dame’s balanced attack, superior line play, and home-field advantage should allow them to control the game from start to finish. Indiana’s feel-good story ends here as the Fighting Irish cover the spread comfortably. Final score projection: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 20.
NCAAB: Delaware at St. Peter’s
Pick: Delaware +3 / Wager: 2%
Analysis:
KenPom ranks these two teams nearly evenly, making the 3-point spread in favor of St. Peter’s a value play for Delaware. Early sharp action on the Delaware moneyline further signals professional backing on the road underdog. St. Peter’s has significant offensive inefficiencies, including poor two-point shooting and free throw percentages, both of which fall well below the national average. Delaware’s defensive strengths align perfectly to exploit these weaknesses, particularly in contesting inside scoring opportunities and minimizing free throw damage.
While a moneyline play on Delaware offers upside, taking the +3 provides a cushion in what projects to be a close, competitive game. Delaware’s offensive efficiency and ability to defend without fouling should keep them in position to cover or win outright.
Indicators:
KenPom Rankings: The near-equal ranking of these teams highlights the value of getting points with Delaware.
Sharp Money Movement: Early professional money moving toward Delaware, especially on the moneyline, adds credibility to the play.
Mismatch in Efficiency: St. Peter’s struggles offensively, particularly in areas where Delaware’s defense excels.
Market Signals: Spread movement and sharp bets on Delaware suggest this line may close tighter.
Projection:
Delaware’s defensive efficiency and ability to capitalize on St. Peter’s offensive vulnerabilities should allow them to cover and potentially win outright. The +3 provides a layer of protection in what could be a closely contested game.
Final Score Projection: Delaware 66, St. Peter’s 63.
NCAAB: Akron at Yale
Pick: Yale ML / Wager: 3%
Analysis:
This matchup features two strong mid-major programs that have the potential to reach the NCAA Tournament, with Yale picked second in the Ivy League and Akron holding the same projection in the MAC. KenPom ranks Yale 30 spots higher, reflecting their edge in efficiency metrics. The Bulldogs are led by seniors John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng, who were recently named to the Lou Henson Early Season Watch List, adding to their credibility as a cohesive and experienced squad.
The location is a curious wrinkle—this game takes place at a neutral site in El Paso, Texas, thousands of miles from both campuses. While the setting is unique, Yale seems better positioned to handle the conditions due to its longer rest period, having not played since December 7. In contrast, Akron just played Sunday at another neutral site, where they suffered a decisive loss to Milwaukee. Akron’s struggles away from home are notable, as the Zips are 0-3 in such settings this season.
Indicators:
KenPom Rankings: Yale holds a 30-spot edge over Akron, reflecting superior efficiency.
Rest Advantage: Yale has had a full week to prepare, while Akron is on short rest following a loss.
Travel Factor: Akron’s 0-3 record away from home this season raises concerns about their performance in neutral or hostile environments.
Player Leadership: Yale’s veteran core of Poulakidas and Mbeng offers stability and leadership in key moments.
Projection:
Yale’s preparation and rest advantage, combined with Akron’s recent road woes, should give the Bulldogs the upper hand. Expect Yale to control the game, capitalize on their efficiency edge, and secure the win. Final score projection: Yale 71, Akron 65.
NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres
Pick: Sabres +1.5 / Wager: 2%
Analysis:
Toronto enters this game on the front end of a back-to-back with significant question marks in net. With Anthony Stolarz sidelined for weeks, Matt Murray is expected to make his return to the NHL. Murray hasn't appeared in an NHL game since April 2023, spending the entirety of last season in the AHL while dealing with injuries. His performance has been inconsistent since his Stanley Cup-winning days in Pittsburgh, which casts doubt on his ability to anchor the Leafs against a Sabres team desperate to stop a long skid.
Buffalo’s 11-game losing streak doesn't reflect the talent on this roster. Star defenseman and captain Rasmus Dahlin is expected back after a seven-game absence, which could reinvigorate a team that has clearly missed his two-way dominance. Even if Toronto boasts the better overall lineup, a vulnerable Murray in goal and the Leafs' travel schedule create an opportunity for the Sabres to keep this game competitive.
Indicators:
Goaltending Disparity: Toronto’s reliance on Matt Murray, unproven this season and returning from injury, is a significant risk factor.
Key Player Return: Rasmus Dahlin’s expected return bolsters Buffalo's defensive structure and offensive transition game.
Motivation Factor: Buffalo is far too talented to continue their slump, and the return of their captain may provide the spark needed.
Situational Edge: The Leafs are managing a back-to-back, which often affects their focus and energy levels.
Projection:
The Sabres have the talent to compete and keep this game close, especially with Dahlin back in the lineup and Toronto’s goaltending situation in flux. Expect Buffalo to make it a tight contest, if not pull off the upset. Final score projection: Toronto 4, Buffalo 3 (OT).
NBA: Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Cavs -8 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Bobby Portis Over 12.5 Points / Wager: 3%
Analysis:
The Bucks are entering this game short-handed, with Damian Lillard among the key absences. This creates an opportunity for Bobby Portis to play an expanded role, likely logging close to 30 minutes against a Cleveland team that features a big frontcourt. Portis has been productive in limited minutes against the Cavs this season, scoring in double digits in both prior matchups. His ability to stretch the floor and attack mismatches makes the over on his points prop a strong play.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers come into this matchup well-rested, having had Thursday off while the Bucks played earlier in the week. The Cavs have thrived in similar situations, boasting a 16-6 ATS record with rest. Cleveland has been especially dominant as a home favorite, going 11-4 ATS, with most of their recent wins coming by comfortable margins. With Milwaukee potentially dealing with a post-NBA Cup letdown and travel fatigue, the Cavs are well-positioned to cover the spread.
Indicators:
Milwaukee Roster Adjustments: Without Damian Lillard, the Bucks lose a significant scoring and playmaking option, forcing others like Portis to take on more responsibility.
Cavs' Rest Advantage: Cleveland has had ample time to prepare, historically excelling in games following extended breaks.
Home Court Consistency: The Cavaliers are 16-8 ATS as favorites overall and perform exceptionally well at home as favorites.
Winning Margin Trends: Cleveland’s last five victories have been by double digits, demonstrating their ability to put teams away.
Projection:
Expect Cleveland’s rested lineup to exploit Milwaukee’s shorthanded roster, controlling the tempo and setting the defensive tone. Portis should find scoring opportunities in his increased role, but the Cavs' depth and consistency should secure a comfortable win.
Final Score Projection: Cavaliers 115, Bucks 103.
Responsible Gambling Disclaimer
Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.
At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.
Our Approach to Bankroll Management
We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.