Textbook BrownBagBets Day: Week 16 NFL Sunday & Today’s Slate

Yesterday’s Results – A Textbook BrownBagBets Day:
Yesterday was a prime example of the BrownBagBets philosophy in action. Out of 20 total plays, we went 10-10, a performance that might seem neutral on the surface but delivered a 5% bankroll increase thanks to sharp hits in NCAAB, NBA, and NCAAF. On top of that, we stacked those all-important tier credits, keeping us on track toward both financial and loyalty goals.

However, we’ve got to address the elephant in the room: NFL continues to challenge us. It wasn’t just a rough outing—it was a glaring blemish on an otherwise stellar day. Without those NFL plays, yesterday could’ve gone down as one for the record books. But that’s the reality of betting. Today’s a new day, and Week 16 NFL Sunday presents a fresh opportunity to turn things around.

Nine Days to Make It Count:
We’re in the final stretch of December with nine betting days left. This is where discipline and focus matter most. NFL may be our nemesis right now, but we’ve faced tougher challenges and come out stronger. BrownBagBets isn’t about perfection—it’s about resilience and calculated adjustments.

Our goal today is clear: approach NFL Sunday with precision while continuing to crush it in our stronger sports like NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and EPL. Every play counts, and with the right discipline, today can be another stepping stone to finishing December on a high note.

Today’s Slate – NFL Sunday and More:
Here’s what’s on the board for today:

• Week 16 NFL Sunday:

  • A full slate of NFL action provides plenty of opportunities to recalibrate and execute smart plays. Let’s work to turn this around.

• NCAAB, NBA, and NHL:

  • With consistent success in these leagues, they remain strong pillars of our December strategy. We’ll lean on our data-driven indicators to identify high-value opportunities.

• EPL Plays:

  • The Premier League joins the mix, adding another layer of action for those looking to diversify their bets today.

Final Thought – Today Is the Day to Rebound:
Yesterday proved that even in the face of challenges, our system delivers results. Today, we’re doubling down on what works, refining our NFL approach, and keeping the momentum alive in other sports. With only nine betting days left in the year, every decision matters. Let’s make today count and finish Week 16 with a win.

English Premier League: Bournemouth at Manchester United

Pick: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals Scored / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Ruben Amorim’s appointment as manager has been a rollercoaster. While his tenure has seen bright moments—like their recent derby victory against Manchester City—it’s also exposed persistent issues, particularly in defense. United’s Thursday loss to Tottenham (4-3) highlighted these vulnerabilities, with the backline showing cracks that an aggressive Bournemouth side could exploit. The Red Devils have, however, maintained consistency in finding the back of the net, scoring in 13 of their last 14 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game during that stretch.

United’s attacking dynamism, led by players like Amad Diallo and Marcus Rashford, ensures they remain a potent threat in front of goal. However, defensive lapses, coupled with ongoing issues of squad depth and inconsistency, mean they are prone to conceding.

Bournemouth’s high-pressing, possession-based style has brought them success against top-tier teams like Arsenal, Tottenham, and Manchester City this season. Despite their strong form, their away record remains an area of concern, where performances have been less impressive compared to their displays at Vitality Stadium.

The Cherries have shown a tendency for high-scoring matches, with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals landing in five of their last seven league games. Their aggressive attacking approach, even away from home, often leaves them exposed defensively—perfect conditions for an open, goal-heavy match.

Head-to-Head:

History between these two sides further supports a high-scoring affair. In their last seven meetings at Old Trafford, Bournemouth has conceded an average of 2.43 goals per game, including a 3-0 defeat last season. Despite this, the Cherries have shown they can trouble United’s defense, and their aggressive approach could lead to opportunities on the counter.

Betting Indicators

• Scoring Trends: Both teams have shown consistency in finding the net, with United scoring in 13 of their last 14 and Bournemouth seeing BTTS + Over 2.5 in five of their last seven matches.

• Defensive Vulnerabilities: United’s defensive issues and Bournemouth’s open style create favorable conditions for goals from both sides.

• Historical Patterns: The head-to-head matchups at Old Trafford have typically seen plenty of goals, further boosting confidence in this market.

Projection

With both sides capable of scoring and neither boasting defensive solidity, this match shapes up as an end-to-end contest. Bournemouth’s attacking intent and United’s firepower, coupled with defensive frailties on both sides, make BTTS + Over 2.5 goals a highly probable outcome.

Final Score Projection: Manchester United 3, Bournemouth 2

English Premier League: Liverpool at Tottenham

Pick: Over 3.5 Goals / Wager: 2%

Analysis

This matchup sets the stage for a high-scoring affair, with both sides leaning heavily on offensive firepower while showing vulnerabilities at the back. Tottenham, already plagued by defensive frailties, has a concerning 24.3 xGA (expected goals allowed), which ranks them in the bottom half of the league, even worse than some teams in the relegation zone like Crystal Palace and Everton. The absence of key defensive stalwarts, including Cristian Romero, further compounds their issues at the back, leaving them exposed against Liverpool’s lethal attack.

Liverpool, meanwhile, has been on a goal-scoring tear, showcasing one of the league’s most dynamic offenses. With the likes of Mohamed Salah and Darwin Núñez in fine form, the Reds are consistently creating high-quality chances. Historically, these two teams have produced fireworks, with their last 10 meetings averaging 3.6 goals per game, making the over a logical play here.

While both teams have the talent to score freely, Tottenham’s injuries and defensive struggles suggest they’ll struggle to contain Liverpool’s potent attack. At the same time, Spurs’ aggressive attacking style under Ange Postecoglou should create opportunities for goals at both ends, pushing the tempo and increasing the likelihood of a high total.

Betting Indicators

• Defensive Vulnerability: Tottenham’s 24.3 xGA puts them in the relegation-tier defensively, compounded by key injuries to players like Romero.

• Liverpool’s Offensive Form: The Reds’ attacking unit has been one of the most efficient in the league, with Salah and Núñez creating consistent scoring chances.

• Historical Data: The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 3.6 goals per game, aligning well with this total.

• Spurs’ Attacking Style: Postecoglou’s system prioritizes attacking football, increasing the likelihood of an open, goal-filled match.

Projection

Expect an entertaining and open match as Liverpool’s in-form attack capitalizes on Tottenham’s defensive issues, while Spurs’ offensive philosophy ensures they contribute to the scoring. A high-scoring affair looks likely in this matchup.

Final Score Projection: Liverpool 3, Tottenham 2

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Pick: Eagles -3.5 / Wager: 5%

Pick: DaVonta Smith over 54.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 1%

Analysis

The Philadelphia Eagles continue to assert themselves as one of the NFL’s most complete teams. They combine a top-tier defense with an efficient offense led by Jalen Hurts, who has consistently delivered in critical divisional matchups. The Eagles’ ability to neutralize mobile quarterbacks and dominate time of possession is key here against a Washington team that has benefited from a soft schedule and is struggling with consistency on both sides of the ball.

Philadelphia’s defense has held opponents to an average of 15.1 points per game over their last 10 contests, and they’ve managed to limit scoring opportunities by excelling on third downs. This dominance will likely continue against a Commanders team that went just 3-for-12 on third down in their first meeting with Philadelphia this season. While Washington’s two recent wins might indicate momentum, neither came against strong opponents, and the Commanders barely scraped by an injury-depleted Saints squad last week.

Jalen Hurts’ efficiency as a road favorite (4-1-1 ATS in his last six divisional games) and the Eagles’ ability to exploit mismatches in Washington’s defense give them the edge here. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS on the road, covering by an NFL-best 10.7 points per game. Their offensive versatility and ability to control the clock (33:04 TOP in the first meeting) make them a nightmare matchup for Washington, especially as the Commanders’ run game continues to stall.

Betting Indicators

• Defensive Dominance: Eagles are allowing just 15.1 PPG over their last 10 games, stifling even mobile quarterbacks.

• ATS Trends: Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS on the road, covering by an average of 10.7 points per game.

• Head-to-Head Matchup: The Eagles won the first meeting by 8 points despite leaving opportunities on the table, with 434 total yards and nearly 34 minutes of possession.

• Commanders’ Weaknesses: Washington is 3-12 on third down in the previous meeting, and their run game has stalled in recent weeks.

Projection

The Eagles should assert themselves as the superior team in this matchup, leveraging their defense and well-rounded offense to dominate the Commanders. Expect Philadelphia to control the tempo and earn a convincing divisional win on the road.

Final Score Projection: Eagles 27, Commanders 17

NFL: Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Pick: James Conner over 84.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 3%
Pick: Cardinals -4.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

This matchup offers a clear edge for Arizona, particularly on the ground. The Panthers field the league's worst rushing defense, allowing a staggering 173 yards per game on the ground. Over the past six weeks, they’ve given up five 100+ yard rushing performances to opposing running backs, and the trend should continue against a workhorse like James Conner, who has compiled 200 rushing yards in his last two outings.

The Cardinals offense, averaging 5.1 yards per rush (3rd in the NFL), is perfectly positioned to exploit this glaring weakness. With a playoff berth still in reach, Arizona will likely lean heavily on Conner to control the game flow and take pressure off Kyler Murray and the passing attack.

From a team perspective, Arizona thrives against subpar opponents like Carolina, a team sitting near the bottom of the standings with 386 total yards allowed per game (31st overall). Historically, the Cardinals have taken care of business in these situations and should do so again here. Carolina’s inability to stop the run will keep their offense on the sidelines and their defense on the field, leading to another decisive loss.

Betting Indicators

• Rushing Advantage: James Conner faces the league’s worst rushing defense, which has allowed 5.0+ yards per carry and multiple 100-yard performances recently.

• Cardinals’ Record Against Poor Teams: Arizona consistently beats teams below .500, particularly when favored.

• Defensive Weakness: Carolina’s bottom-ranked run defense is a glaring mismatch against Arizona’s third-ranked rushing offense.

• Game Flow: Arizona’s game plan is expected to feature a heavy dose of Conner, controlling the clock and tempo.

Projection

James Conner’s workload and efficiency should lead to another dominant performance on the ground, while Arizona capitalizes on Carolina’s defensive deficiencies to secure a road victory and cover the spread.

Final Score Projection: Cardinals 27, Panthers 17

NFL: New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Giants +9 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

The Falcons’ decision to pivot to rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. raises significant questions, especially with the team still in the thick of the playoff race. While Kirk Cousins has struggled recently, his veteran track record suggests that benching him may be a hasty decision. Penix has limited NFL experience, with only five career pass attempts in mop-up duty, making this a high-risk move against a Giants defense capable of pressuring inexperienced quarterbacks.

Atlanta’s offensive issues run deeper than just QB play, as the Falcons have failed to score more than 21 points in five straight games. With Penix stepping into his first starting role, it’s hard to envision Atlanta suddenly finding offensive consistency.

On the other side, the Giants’ offense has been far from explosive, but it doesn’t need to be prolific to cover a spread this large. Even with their struggles, New York’s defense and ball-control approach could keep this game within reach. Head coach Brian Daboll’s teams have typically performed better as sizable underdogs, often thriving in low-expectation spots like this.

Betting Indicators

• QB Transition: Falcons starting rookie Michael Penix Jr. in a high-pressure situation against a capable Giants defense.

• Offensive Struggles: Atlanta has not surpassed 21 points in five consecutive games, signaling issues beyond QB play.

• Underdog Success: Giants have performed well against the spread when facing large deficits, particularly under Brian Daboll’s coaching.

Projection

The Falcons’ offense is unlikely to find its rhythm with a rookie QB at the helm, while the Giants’ conservative game plan should allow them to keep this one close. A game dominated by field goals and limited scoring keeps the Giants within the number.

Final Score Projection: Falcons 20, Giants 14

NFL: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Bengals -8.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Ja’Marr Chase over 89.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 1%

Analysis

The Bengals enter this divisional matchup with renewed playoff aspirations, buoyed by the Broncos' recent loss. With their offense firing on all cylinders, Cincinnati has shown the ability to pile up points consistently, scoring 27+ in six consecutive games and hitting 34 or more in four of them. Their offensive efficiency is a stark contrast to the Browns, who continue to flounder with a shaky quarterback situation and injuries to key contributors.

The Browns are starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson, an inexperienced quarterback who has struggled to adjust to NFL speed. Against a Bengals defense that has shown flashes of competence, particularly in getting after the quarterback, this could spell disaster for Cleveland. Cincinnati’s ability to generate pressure could force Thompson-Robinson into mistakes, giving their offense a short field to operate with.

Historically, the Bengals have dominated this rivalry, covering 15 of the last 21 games and winning their last 10 home games against Cleveland by an average margin that comfortably clears this spread. Meanwhile, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski has been notoriously poor in divisional road games, going 3-10 ATS, with his teams underperforming against the number by nearly six points per game.

Betting Indicators

• Dominant Offensive Trend: Bengals have scored at least 27 points in six straight games and 34+ in four of them.

• Defensive Mismatch: The Bengals' defense should exploit rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, forcing turnovers and limiting Cleveland’s scoring potential.

• Historical Edge: Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. the Browns and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 matchups overall.

• Browns’ Divisional Struggles: Kevin Stefanski is 3-10 ATS in AFC North road games, consistently falling short of expectations.

Projection

The Bengals' balanced attack and defensive advantage over an injury-depleted Browns team should lead to a convincing victory. Look for Cincinnati to capitalize on Cleveland’s offensive inefficiency and maintain their playoff push.

Final Score Projection: Bengals 31, Browns 17

NFL: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Colts ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis

This AFC South matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. The Colts, while a longshot, still have slim playoff hopes and need to win out to keep their season alive. Meanwhile, the Titans are in evaluation mode, as evidenced by their quarterback carousel. After starting Will Levis, Tennessee has now turned to Mason Rudolph, which speaks volumes about the instability at the position. Rudolph’s limited mobility and questionable pocket presence could be a major liability against a Colts defensive front that excels at creating pressure.

Indianapolis’ defensive line, anchored by DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, is well-positioned to disrupt Rudolph, who will face relentless pressure behind an inconsistent offensive line. On the other side of the ball, the Colts offense should find success in the short passing game, leveraging Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor to control the tempo and exploit Tennessee’s 31st-ranked pass defense (allowing 277 yards per game).

The Titans have struggled mightily on the road, posting an 0-7 SU record away from Nashville this season. Add to that a staggering 2-12 ATS record, the worst single-season mark in NFL history since 1970. With numerous key players appearing on Tennessee’s early injury report, motivation and health could further tilt the scales in the Colts’ favor.

Betting Indicators

• Playoff Motivation: The Colts are still mathematically alive in the postseason race, giving them an edge in urgency and focus.

• Defensive Pressure: Indianapolis’ pass rush can exploit Tennessee’s unstable quarterback situation and porous offensive line.

• Tennessee’s Road Woes: The Titans are winless on the road and carry an abysmal ATS record this season.

• Injury Factors: Tennessee’s lengthy injury report signals a lack of full effort from a team with nothing left to play for.

Projection

The Colts’ playoff hopes and defensive superiority will overwhelm a lackluster Tennessee team playing out the string. Look for Indianapolis to control the game on both sides of the ball and keep their postseason aspirations alive.

Final Score Projection: Colts 24, Titans 16

NFL: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Pick: Bears +7 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

The Bears present an intriguing underdog opportunity against the Lions, especially considering Detroit’s growing injury list. The Lions enter this game missing key contributors, including RB David Montgomery and defensive standouts CBs Khalil Dorsey and Carlton Davis III as well as DT Alim McNeill. These absences significantly impact both sides of the ball, with Detroit losing a key offensive weapon and critical pieces of their defensive backbone.

The Bears, while struggling straight up with no wins since mid-October, have been competitive against top-tier NFC North rivals. Their recent three-point loss at Detroit, including a solid defensive showing, suggests Chicago can keep this matchup close. Prior to being overwhelmed by the 49ers, the Bears lost to NFC contenders by a combined seven points, including an overtime heartbreaker. Returning home for the first time in a month provides a boost, both emotionally and strategically.

Expect Chicago to lean heavily on a ground-focused game plan to control the clock and minimize Detroit’s offensive opportunities. QB Justin Fields, known for his mobility, will likely test the Lions’ depleted defense, and the Bears’ defense will aim to capitalize on Detroit’s offensive limitations with Montgomery sidelined.

Betting Indicators

• Injury Impact: Multiple key absences for Detroit, including David Montgomery, who has been a central figure in their rushing attack, and critical defensive players.

• ATS Competitiveness: Bears have kept games close, losing to Detroit by just three points earlier this season and staying competitive against stronger NFC teams.

• Home Field Factor: Bears return to Soldier Field after a month-long absence, providing a potential lift.

Projection

The Lions remain formidable but appear vulnerable given their injury issues and recent shaky defensive outings. The Bears, bolstered by home-field energy and the ability to keep games tight, should cover the spread in what looks like another NFC North slugfest.

Final Score Projection: Lions 24, Bears 20

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Vikings -3 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Vikings travel to Seattle with clear advantages on both sides of the ball, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding the Seahawks’ quarterback situation. Geno Smith’s injury status looms large, and with Sam Howell’s recent struggles, the Seahawks’ offense faces significant challenges against a Vikings defense that has been opportunistic this season.

Minnesota’s offensive versatility stands out as a key factor. The Vikings have leaned on their balanced attack to find success against defenses like Seattle’s, which has been vulnerable against both the run and pass. Josh Jacobs and the Lions recently gashed this Seattle defense, exposing gaps that Aaron Jones and the Vikings rushing attack are well-equipped to exploit. Jones has surpassed 100 scrimmage yards in four of his last six games and thrives in high-volume situations, particularly in screen-game opportunities.

Defensively, the Vikings have consistently found ways to make key stops in outdoor games. They are 19-9-4 ATS outdoors since 2020, including an 8-2-3 ATS mark in their last 13 such contests. Their ability to adapt to different environments has translated into consistent success away from home, and with Seattle’s offensive line struggling and the pass rush lacking bite, Minnesota is well-positioned to control the tempo and dictate the game script.

Betting Indicators

• Outdoor Success: Minnesota is the best team in the NFL at covering outdoor games since 2020, with a 9-3 SU record in their last 12.

• ATS Trends: The Vikings are 9-4-1 ATS this season, while the Seahawks are just 2-5-1 ATS at home. Seattle has also struggled outside the NFC West, going 3-4-2 ATS in such matchups.

• Injury Concerns: Geno Smith’s injury status tilts the balance heavily in Minnesota’s favor. Seattle’s offensive issues were evident even before this concern, as their offensive line has been a liability all season.

• Seattle’s Defense: Seattle’s run defense has been exploited in recent weeks, giving up big days to Josh Jacobs and the Lions’ ground game. This weakness plays directly into Minnesota’s offensive strengths.

Projection

The Vikings’ consistency outdoors and Seattle’s struggles at home and against non-divisional opponents point strongly toward a Minnesota cover. Look for the Vikings to control the game with a balanced attack while their defense capitalizes on the Seahawks’ offensive struggles.

Final Score Projection: Vikings 27, Seahawks 20

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets

Pick: Rams -3 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

The Rams enter this matchup with momentum, having won three straight games and seven of their last nine. For a team that battled through injuries earlier in the season, arriving at this point in December with a fully healthy roster is a significant advantage. This is in stark contrast to the Jets, who secured a comeback win over Jacksonville last week but remain a team struggling to find consistency, particularly against stronger opponents. New York has covered the spread just once in six games against teams with a record over .500 this season.

The Jets’ defense, once a strength, has been susceptible through the air, giving up the fifth-most receiving yards per game over the last five contests. This sets up nicely for Rams WR Puka Nacua, who boasts a 26.9% target share and has been the clear alpha since returning from injury. Additionally, the Jets have been mediocre against the run, providing an ideal scenario for RB Kyren Williams, who has been a workhorse for Sean McVay’s offense. Williams has accumulated 58 carries over the past two games and has gone over his rushing prop in four of his last five road games. Expect McVay to lean on the run in what should be cold, East Coast conditions, allowing the Rams to control the clock and build a lead.

On the other side, Aaron Rodgers looked solid against Jacksonville, but that was against a struggling Jaguars defense. The Rams’ defensive line, led by Jared Verse, should wreak havoc on a Jets offensive line that has been inconsistent all season. Rodgers will likely face constant pressure, limiting the effectiveness of New York’s offense.

Betting Indicators

• Momentum Advantage: Rams have won 7 of their last 9 games, while the Jets are just 2-9 SU in their last 11.

• Defensive Mismatch: Jets rank 28th in defending opposing wide receivers over the past five games, making Nacua a key weapon for the Rams.

• Rushing Edge: Kyren Williams has been dominant with heavy volume and faces a Jets run defense that struggles against consistent rushing attacks.

• ATS Trends: Jets are 1-5 ATS vs winning teams, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine.

Projection

The Rams’ balance on offense and defensive pressure will be too much for the Jets to overcome. Expect the Rams to control the game, utilizing Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua to exploit the Jets’ defensive vulnerabilities, while Aaron Rodgers struggles under pressure.

Final Score Projection: Rams 27, Jets 17

NFL: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Pick: Bills Over 30.5 Team Total / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Buffalo enters this divisional matchup as one of the most consistent scoring teams in the league, having cleared their team total in 12 of 14 games this season. The Bills’ offense has been electric at home, posting 30 or more points in every home game, and they’re poised to extend that streak against a Patriots defense that has been unraveling in recent weeks.

New England has surrendered 31+ points to offenses like Jacksonville, Houston, and Miami, all of which lack the firepower of Buffalo. Over their last four games, the Patriots’ defense has allowed an average of 29.25 points per game, showcasing their vulnerability to both the run and pass. This sets the stage for a dominant Bills offensive performance, especially considering Josh Allen’s MVP-level play and the team’s efficient use of their running backs in recent weeks.

Buffalo’s injury report also favors the over on their team total, as most of their questionable players are on the defensive side of the ball. With the Bills likely to lean on their versatile ground game due to the extreme cold in Buffalo, they are well-equipped to control the tempo and rack up points against a Patriots team that has struggled to keep games competitive.

Betting Indicators

• Scoring Consistency: Buffalo has scored 30+ points in eight consecutive games, solidifying their position as one of the league’s top offenses.

• Patriots Defensive Struggles: Over the past four weeks, New England has allowed nearly 30 points per game, with losses by double-digit margins to multiple teams.

• Bills as Favorites: Buffalo is 7-3 ATS as a favorite, covering by an average of 8.85 points per game. They have one of the best overall cover margins in the NFL this season.

• Historical Margin of Victory: The Patriots have lost by at least 13 points in five games this season, highlighting their inability to compete against top-tier offenses.

Projection

Buffalo’s offensive firepower, combined with New England’s deteriorating defense, creates a perfect storm for the Bills to clear their team total with ease. Expect Josh Allen and the Bills’ dynamic attack to put up points early and often, padding their lead and MVP cases along the way.

Final Score Projection: Bills 34, Patriots 13

NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: Jaguars +2.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Las Vegas Raiders come into this game on the heels of a ten-game losing streak, yet they’re positioned as slight favorites. That raises red flags, as the Raiders’ status as “chalk” feels precarious, even against a Jaguars team that has its own struggles. Jacksonville has shown flashes of competence, winning six of their last eight ATS decisions, and should not be overlooked in this matchup.

For the Raiders, Aidan O’Connell is back under center. While he’s demonstrated flashes of potential, it’s hard to categorize him as a significant improvement over other subpar QBs like Desmond Ridder or Gardner Minshew. The Raiders’ offense remains stagnant, lacking the explosiveness to reliably cover as favorites.

On the Jaguars’ side, Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent but is capable of managing the offense well enough to exploit a Raiders defense ranked near the bottom in most key metrics. Meanwhile, Doug Pederson’s coaching acumen gives Jacksonville a tangible edge over Antonio Pierce, who is unlikely to secure the permanent head coaching position in Las Vegas next year.

Betting Indicators

• ATS Momentum: Jacksonville has covered in six of their last eight games, showcasing their ability to stay competitive against varied opponents.

• Raiders Struggles: Las Vegas is riding a ten-game losing streak and is winless ATS in many of those contests, making them unreliable favorites.

• Quarterback Comparison: Aidan O’Connell’s limited experience and shaky performances offer little reassurance that the Raiders can pull away in this game.

Projection

The Jaguars have the coaching edge and a capable enough offense to take advantage of a vulnerable Raiders team. Look for Jacksonville to stay within the number or win outright in a low-scoring affair.

Final Score Projection: Jaguars 23, Raiders 20

NCAAB: Binghamton at Army

Pick: Army ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Army enters this matchup with distinct advantages on both ends of the court, and the metrics back their role as favorites. KenPom ranks Army 46 spots higher nationally than Binghamton, and other predictive models like ESPN’s BPI align with this outlook, projecting a comfortable margin of victory for the Black Knights.

Army has relied heavily on standout performances from key players:

• Jalen Rucker leads the Patriot League in scoring with 18.6 points per game, adding defensive impact with 2.0 steals per game.

• Ryan Curry facilitates the offense beautifully, leading the league with 4.5 assists per game.

• AJ Allenspach has been dominant in the paint, shooting a stellar 76.6% from the floor and recording four double-doubles in his last five games. His presence has propelled Army to the top of the Patriot League in rebounding.

Binghamton, on the other hand, has struggled on the road with a 2-4 record and lacks the firepower to match Army’s balanced attack. The Black Knights, who are 4-1 at home, have also had ample preparation time with over a week off, further tipping the scales in their favor.

Betting Indicators

• Home Court Advantage: Army is 4-1 at home this season, leveraging strong crowd support and familiarity with their court.

• Player Efficiency: Army boasts three league leaders in critical categories (scoring, assists, shooting percentage), highlighting their depth and efficiency.

• Preparation Edge: The Black Knights had a full week to prepare, while Binghamton has faced a demanding travel schedule with four away losses.

Projection

Army’s efficient offense, rebounding dominance, and defensive prowess should carry them past Binghamton comfortably, protecting their strong home record.

Final Score Projection: Army 72, Binghamton 65

NCAAB: Indiana University Purdue Fort Wayne (IPFW) at Michigan

Pick: Over 159.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

This game promises an offensive explosion, as both IPFW and Michigan thrive in high-scoring, fast-paced contests. IPFW’s pace is among the quickest in college basketball, as evidenced by their 102-89 shootout loss to Penn State earlier this season. Jon Coffman’s Mastodons average nearly 85 points per game, boasting an efficient offense that shoots 49% from the field and 38% from beyond the arc. Their veteran backcourt of Jalen Jackson (18.1 ppg) and Rasheed Bello (14.5 ppg) is highly productive, and Jackson showed his scoring potential with 31 points against Penn State.

Michigan, under Dusty May, has demonstrated an ability to play at a similarly fast tempo, with the Wolverines averaging 81 points per game. They possess the firepower to match IPFW’s high-octane offense and should welcome a fast pace to leverage their own scoring capabilities. Michigan’s well-rounded attack and home-court advantage make them likely to drive the scoring further, especially with IPFW’s defensive liabilities against quality opponents.

Given IPFW’s scoring tendencies and Michigan’s offensive prowess, the total of 159.5 looks well within reach in a game where transition basketball and high shot volumes are expected.

Betting Indicators

• High-Pace Offense: IPFW’s fast-paced style has contributed to averaging 85 points per game, and they scored 89 against a Big Ten opponent in Penn State.

• Michigan’s Scoring Depth: The Wolverines average 81 points per game and are comfortable playing at a fast tempo.

• Defensive Vulnerabilities: IPFW’s struggles on the defensive end, particularly against high-major programs, leave room for Michigan to exploit and push the total higher.

• Historical Performance: IPFW’s game against Penn State (102-89) highlights their tendency to turn games against Power 5 opponents into high-scoring affairs.

Projection

Expect an up-and-down game with plenty of transition opportunities, high shooting volumes, and limited defensive resistance. Both teams have the offensive talent to easily clear this total.

Final Score Projection: Michigan 93, IPFW 78