Saturday 12/16/23

NCAAF Bowl Games

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Georgia Southern vs Ohio University

Pick: Georgia Southern -3.5 / Wager: 3%

New Orleans Bowl

Jacksonville State vs University of Louisiana

Pick: Jacksonville State ML / Wager: 4%

Cure Bowl

Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State

Pick: Under 42.5 / Wager: 3%

New Mexico Bowl

New Mexico State vs Fresno State

Pick: New Mexico State ML / Wager: 4%

LA Bowl

UCLA vs Boise State

Pick: UCLA -4.5 / Wager: 3%

NFL Plays

Vikings @ Bengals

Pick: Bengals ML / Wager: 4%

Pick: Ja’Maar Chase over 5.5 Receptions / Wager: 3%

Absolutely, here's a redrafted version of your pick recommendations for the Vikings vs Bengals game:

As we gear up for the clash between the Vikings and the Bengals, it's clear that Cincinnati is riding a wave of momentum with back-to-back victories under Jake Browning's leadership. The Bengals are set to host a Vikings squad that's currently grappling with uncertainty at the quarterback position. Despite Justin Jefferson's return, the Vikings, steered by Nick Mullens, might struggle with fluidity in their offense and keeping turnovers at bay. Their absence of Alexander Mattison, who has been a recent catalyst, only adds to their challenges.

We're placing our confidence in the Bengals for a straight-up win. The synergy between Lou Anarumo's defensive strategies and Browning's offensive command seems poised to outshine the Vikings in this pivotal matchup. With Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd cleared to play, Cincinnati's offense looks even more formidable.

Speaking of Ja'Marr Chase, we're eyeing an over on his reception count. In a landscape where quick releases are key against Minnesota's aggressive blitzing, Chase's role becomes crucial. Browning's tendency to target Chase, who boasts a significant share of first-read targets, sets the stage for a potential high-reception game. Chase's ability to turn short passes into substantial gains could be the game-changer Cincinnati needs to solidify their playoff aspirations.

In a season where quarterback narratives are constantly being rewritten, Browning's ascendancy over Mullens is a storyline we didn't anticipate, yet here we are. It's a testament to the unpredictable nature of the NFL, and we're here to navigate these waters with you. This is particularly why we are standing down on the over/under although we may have enough reason to believe the under is a good play. Our bet is on the Bengals to clinch this one, with Chase playing a pivotal role in their victory.

Steelers @ Colts

Pick: Steelers ML @ +110 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Under 42 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Najee Harris over 65.5 Yards Rushing + Receiving / Wager: 2%

For the upcoming Steelers vs. Colts game, we're eyeing a few intriguing opportunities that align perfectly with the BrownBagBets philosophy of smart, strategic betting. Here's our breakdown:

Steelers Moneyline @ +110: The Steelers, often underestimated, have a knack for pulling off surprises, especially against teams like the Colts, who have shown vulnerability against dynamic rushing attacks. With the Colts' recent struggles to contain running backs, we see a window for the Steelers to exploit this weakness. Our confidence in the Steelers' ability to secure a win is bolstered by their potential to disrupt the Colts' defensive schemes.

Under 42 Points: This season, the Steelers have consistently been part of low-scoring affairs, with a trend leaning heavily towards the under. The Colts, despite their offensive capabilities, might find themselves entangled in a defensive battle, given the Steelers' style of play. We're leaning towards a total score that stays under the 42-point mark, aligning with the Steelers' trend and our model's prediction of a lower-scoring game.

Najee Harris Over 65.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards: Harris has been a consistent force for the Steelers, and we expect him to be heavily involved in this matchup. The Colts have been generous to running backs lately, and Harris' dual-threat capability as a rusher and receiver makes him a prime candidate to exceed this yardage total. Given his recent form and the Steelers' reliance on their ground game, this feels like a smart bet.

In summary, our picks for this game are rooted in a blend of statistical analysis, current form, and matchup specifics. We're backing the Steelers to win outright, expecting a lower-scoring game, and banking on Harris to have a productive outing. Remember, our approach at BrownBagBets is all about calculated risks and staying true to our proven strategies. Let's watch these plays unfold and continue our journey of smart betting together

Broncos @ Lions

Pick:’ Broncos ML @ +180 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Under 48 / Wager 2%

Pick: David Montgomery Over 65.5 Yards Rushing / Wager: 2%

Pick: Coutrland Sutton Anytime TD @ +130 / Wager: 2%

For the Broncos vs. Lions game, our BrownBagBets picks are leaning towards the Broncos Moneyline, Under 48, and David Montgomery over 65.5 Yards Rushing, and TD prop just for fun. Here's our breakdown:

Broncos Moneyline: Denver's current form and team dynamics make them the favorable pick. They've evolved into a more complete and confident team under Sean Payton's guidance. Their brand of time-of-possession-based, aggressive football suits well for an away game, especially against a team like the Lions, who have been struggling with consistency. The Broncos have been stout defensively, allowing the second-fewest offensive touchdowns since Week 7, while the Lions' defense has been porous. With Russell Wilson showing better ball protection and fourth-quarter prowess, we're betting on Denver to continue their winning ways.

Under 48: Both teams have shown tendencies that lead us to believe this will be a low-scoring affair. Denver's defense has been solid, particularly on the road, and their offense, despite improvements, still struggles to put up high numbers. The Lions' offense, hampered by turnovers and inefficiencies, aligns with Denver's defensive strengths. With both teams likely to focus on the ground game, we anticipate a slower-paced, lower-scoring game, making the Under 48 a smart play.

David Montgomery Over 65.5 Yards Rushing: The Lions' defensive woes and Denver's vulnerability to the run set the stage for David Montgomery to have a significant impact. Despite the uncertainty in the Bears' backfield timeshare, Montgomery has consistently surpassed this yardage in recent games since his return from injury. Given the Lions' defensive struggles and the likelihood of a run-heavy approach from both sides, Montgomery's chances of exceeding 65.5 rushing yards look promising.