Friday 12/15/23

EPL Plays

Nottingham Forrest @ Tottenham

Pick: Tottenham ML / Wager: 2%

Pick: Both Teams to Score / Wager: 2%

NCAAM Plays

University of Connecticut @ Gonzaga

Pick: Under 149.5 / Wager: 4%

This one is pretty simple. Simulations make this total 145. We are the under here.

Texas State @ Sam Houston State

Pick: Sam Houston ML / Wager: 2%

New Mexico @ New Mexico State

Pick: Over 153 / Wager: 4%

Deceptive Record for NMSU: New Mexico State's current 5-6 SU record might not tell the whole story. A closer look reveals that four of their wins were against lower-division teams, and they've suffered some significant defeats, including a 44-point loss to New Mexico at the Pit recently. This suggests that NMSU's defense might be vulnerable, especially against a team with a potent offense like UNM.

Jaelen House's Impact: Jaelen House's return to the Lobos lineup was nothing short of spectacular, as he racked up 26 points in just the first half in their previous encounter. His presence on the court adds a dynamic element to UNM's offense, making them even more dangerous and capable of putting up big numbers.

UNM's Rising Stars and Offensive Prowess: Under Richard Pitino, UNM has seen the emergence of stars like forward J.T. Toppin and guard Tru Washington, who have been instrumental in keeping the Lobos' offense firing on all cylinders. Averaging 93 points per game in their last three wins, UNM's offense is in top gear, suggesting they can contribute significantly to a high-scoring affair.

The BrownBagBets Perspective: At BrownBagBets, we're not just about playing the odds; we're about understanding the game's narrative. The previous matchup's high-scoring nature, combined with UNM's offensive firepower and NMSU's defensive vulnerabilities, points us towards the Over. It's about reading between the lines and recognizing the potential for an offensive showcase.

Portland State @ San Diego

Pick: Portland State ML / Wager: 3%

For the Portland State vs. San Diego game, we're taking a bold stance with Portland State on the Money Line, and here's our BrownBagBets rationale for this pick:

Steve Lavin's Unpredictability: San Diego, under Steve Lavin's leadership, pulled off a remarkable upset over Arizona State last Saturday, showcasing their potential to deliver surprises. However, Lavin's teams have historically been inconsistent, especially when facing seemingly less challenging opponents. This inconsistency raises questions about San Diego's ability to sustain their high level of play against a team like Portland State.

Portland State's Balanced Attack: Jase Coburn's Portland State Vikings have shown a commendable team effort this season, with a more controlled pace and a stronger defensive focus. Their impressive 8-2 start is a testament to their balanced approach, with no player dominating the scoring - a sign of a well-rounded team. KJ Allen, a transfer from Texas Tech, leads the team with a modest 10.5 points per game, indicating that the Vikings don't rely on a single star to carry them.

The BrownBagBets Edge: At BrownBagBets, we thrive on identifying these under-the-radar opportunities. Portland State's team dynamics and San Diego's potential post-upset complacency present a unique chance for an upset. We're not just looking at stats here; we're delving into team psychology and recent form, which gives us the confidence to back Portland State on the Money Line.

In conclusion, our pick for Portland State on the Money Line is a calculated risk, aligning with our ethos of finding value in unexpected places. It's about understanding the teams beyond the numbers and recognizing the potential for a surprise in what might seem like an uneven matchup. Let's ride with Portland State for a potential big win!

Cal State Bakersfield @ Fresno State

Pick: Cal State Bakersfield +9.5 / Wager: 3%

For the Cal State Bakersfield vs. Fresno State game, we're leaning towards Cal Baker at +9.5, and here's why this pick resonates with our BrownBagBets ethos:

Fresno State's Coaching Dilemma: Fresno State's head coach, Justin Hutson, is under the microscope, with his future at the helm being closely scrutinized by the Red Wave supporters. This added pressure could potentially impact the team's performance, especially when it comes to maintaining a significant lead in games.

Last Year's Close Encounter: Reflecting on last year's matchup, we saw a tightly contested game where Fresno State struggled to pull away, eventually securing a win in the final moments. This history suggests that Cal Baker has the capability to keep the game close, making a 9.5 point spread seem quite generous.

Cal Baker's Competitive Nature: Under Rod Barnes' guidance, Cal Baker has shown a commendable fighting spirit. They've managed to stay competitive against higher-tier teams, including a respectable performance against Gonzaga, where they lost by 16 but still covered the spread. This resilience is a key factor in our decision to back them with the points.

In essence, our pick for Cal Baker +9.5 is based on a blend of historical performance, current team dynamics, and the competitive nature of Cal Baker under pressure situations. At BrownBagBets, we value such insights that go beyond mere statistics, focusing on the nuances that often dictate the flow of

NBA Plays

Pacers @ Wizards

Pick: Pacers -8.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Kyle Kuzma over 24.5 Points / 4% Wager

Pick: Obi Toppin over 10.5 Points / 3% Wager

Pelicans @ Hornets

Pick: Pelicans -7 / Wager: 3%

Lakers @ Spurs

Pick: Victor Wenmbayama over 2.5 Blocks / Wager: 4%

Pick: Devin Vassell over 16.5 Points / Wager: 2%