Strong Day with Positive Bankroll Returns + Champions League Success at BrownBagBets

We’re back on top with a solid 3-3 day, but what’s more important is the net positive result thanks to our proprietary bankroll intelligence approach that consistently maximizes value. With this strategy, we’ve pushed our bankroll back up over 100%, proving yet again that it’s all about the process, not just the results.

We also had a standout performance in yesterday’s Champions League action, going 2-1 in our plays for the new League format. Soccer is a tough sport to bet on – no doubt about it – and we had to make some hard calls recently. Our lead soccer betting analyst just wasn’t the right fit for BrownBagBets in terms of values and approach, and we had to prioritize what matters most: staying true to our process and delivering smart, well-researched plays for our community. Tough decisions, but ones that ensure we remain committed to long-term success and winning the right way.

Today, we’re back with more Champions League action, and we’re eyeing some key matchups: Girona vs PSG, Inter vs Man City, and Dortmund vs Club Brugge. And let’s not forget about MLB – we’re heading into the final stretch before October baseball, and the intensity is ramping up. We’ve got our picks dialed in, and it’s going to be another exciting day at BrownBagBets.

Pick: Dortmund ML @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Recent Performance: Borussia Dortmund’s impressive run last season, reaching the Champions League final and navigating a challenging group featuring PSG, AC Milan, and Newcastle, underscores their status as a top European club. Their success continued into the knockout stages with victories over PSV and Atlético Madrid.

Strong Start: Dortmund has kicked off the new season well, securing two wins and a draw in their first three matches. This momentum provides them with confidence and a strong foundation as they head into this matchup.

Quality Advantage: The quality gap between Dortmund and Club Brugge is significant. With their track record and current form, Dortmund is well-positioned to assert dominance in this encounter, making them the favored choice to secure a victory.

Champions League: PSG at Girona

Pick: PSG -1.5 @ +100 / Wager: 1%

Recent Form: PSG has started the season strongly, winning all four of their matches by at least two goals. This offensive prowess positions them as heavy favorites against Girona.

Squad Changes: Girona’s surprising third-place finish in La Liga last season has been undermined by significant player departures, including Savinho, Artem Dovbyk, Aleix García, and Pau Víctor. Their new signings have yet to find their rhythm, impacting the team’s cohesion.

Struggles Against Top Teams: Girona has struggled against stronger opponents this season, suffering defeats of 3-0 to Atlético Madrid and 4-1 to Barcelona. These results indicate vulnerabilities that PSG is well-equipped to exploit, making a convincing win likely in Paris.

Champions League: Inter at Manchester City

Pick: Inter +1.5 / Wager: 1%

Defensive Strength: Inter Milan has shown remarkable defensive solidity, conceding just three goals in their first four Serie A matches this season. This tight defense positions them well against a potent Man City attack.

Historical Context: These two clubs faced off in the 2023 UCL final, with Manchester City narrowly winning by a single goal. This history suggests a competitive matchup, making it plausible for Inter to keep the scoreline tight again.

Model Prediction: Our model projects a close game, favoring Manchester City with a predicted score of 1.6 to 1.2. Given this expected tightness, taking Inter with a +1.5 cushion offers good value, as it allows for a one-goal loss while still securing a win for the bet.

MLB: Houston Astros at San Diego Padres

Pick: Astros ML / Wager: 3%

Pitching Excellence: Framber Valdez is on the mound for the Astros, boasting an impressive 1.33 ERA since the start of August. Houston has won 13 of his last 14 starts, showcasing his ability to deliver consistently strong performances.

Team Momentum: The Astros are riding a wave of confidence after extending their lead in the AL West. Their thrilling extra-innings victory on Tuesday, combined with Seattle’s loss, adds to the team’s momentum as they face the Padres.

Matchup Advantage: The Padres have struggled recently, and facing a top-tier pitcher like Valdez can be daunting. With Houston’s potent lineup supporting him, the Astros are well-positioned to secure a victory in this matchup.

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Orioles -1.5 @ +120 / Wager: 3%

Bounce-Back Opportunity: The Orioles are in need of a strong performance after a rough home loss on Tuesday. A wake-up call like that can often spark a turnaround, making this a favorable spot for them to rebound.

Pitching Advantage: Dean Kremer is in excellent form, posting a 2.62 ERA over his last six starts, with five of those being quality outings. In contrast, Giants rookie Hayden Birdsong struggles with a 5.70 ERA on the road, contributing to San Francisco’s recent seven-game losing streak.

Roster Impact: The absence of third baseman Matt Chapman, who is on paternity leave, further weakens the Giants’ lineup. This should enhance the Orioles’ chances to capitalize on their pitching advantage and secure a multi-run victory.

MLB: Washington Nationals at New York Mets

Pick: Mets -1.5 @ +130 / Wager: 3%

Surging Performance: The Mets are on a roll, winning 14 of their last 18 games, which has positioned them favorably for the wild card race. Their recent success has allowed them to create some distance from the Braves, and now they are eyeing the D-backs for the fifth wild card spot.

Dominant Pitching: Jose Quintana has been exceptional, allowing only one earned run in his last four starts, resulting in a minuscule 0.36 ERA over 25 innings. His current form gives the Mets a significant edge on the mound.

Series Advantage: Despite DJ Herz’s improvements for the Nationals, Washington appears to be struggling in this matchup. The Mets’ lineup, bolstered by Quintana’s dominance, should overwhelm the Nats and help secure a multi-run victory.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Pitching Dominance: Sonny Gray is in exceptional form, allowing just one run in each of his last three starts and posting a stellar 1.42 ERA. His recent performances have been instrumental in leading the Cardinals to victory in those games, providing a strong foundation for tonight’s matchup.

Offensive Struggles of the Opponent: The Pirates are struggling offensively, managing only one run across the first two games of this series. This lack of production significantly hampers their ability to compete against a well-performing Cardinals lineup.

Matchup Advantage: Jake Woodford, starting for the Pirates, has been ineffective against St. Louis, with an ERA of nine in five August appearances. His recent inactivity since August 24 adds to the uncertainty, making it tough for him to keep pace with Gray and the Cardinals’ offense.