Back-to-Back Wins: BrownBagBets’ Strategy Keeps Us in the Green

Back-to-back winning nights – we’re on a roll! Yesterday’s 4-3 record was even better than it sounds, with two of our 3% plays hitting at + money, and a strong 2-1 in our Champions League matches. This has pushed us back into the green with our bankroll now sitting at 105% of our September starting amount.

For anyone new, welcome to BrownBagBets! We’re not your average sports betting community. Our approach isn’t about chasing daily wins – it’s about long-term, sustainable success. We’ve built our system to prioritize bankroll management, value plays, and strategic decision-making over time. It’s why we always bounce back and why we’ve had winning months across the board. With us, you don’t just get picks – you get insight, guidance, and a community that’s here to win the right way.

Today, we’re looking at another full slate of Champions League matches and MLB picks, along with some

Champions League: Arsenal at Atalanta

Pick: Arsenal ML / Wager: 2%

Recent Form: Arsenal’s solid performance in their recent 1-0 victory over Tottenham in the North London Derby showcases their competitive edge. This win not only boosts their confidence but also highlights their resilience in critical matches.

Key Return: The return of midfielder Declan Rice, following a suspension, is a significant boost for Arsenal. His presence in the midfield can help control the game and provide the necessary drive to exploit Atalanta’s defensive weaknesses.

Defensive Vulnerabilities: Atalanta has struggled defensively, conceding nine goals in their last three matches. This alarming trend presents a prime opportunity for Arsenal to capitalize, even in the absence of captain Martin Ødegaard, as they possess sufficient attacking options to challenge La Dea effectively.

Champions League: RB Leipzig at Atletico Madrid

Pick: Madrid ML / Wager: 2%

Champions League Experience: Atletico Madrid has a strong track record in the Champions League under Diego Simeone. Their tactical discipline and experience make them a formidable opponent in high-stakes matches, particularly at home in the Metropolitano.

Recent Form: With two consecutive wins in La Liga and four straight clean sheets from goalkeeper Jan Oblak, Atletico is in excellent form. The addition of key players like defender Robin le Normand and midfielder Conor Gallagher has bolstered their squad, instilling confidence as they aim for a deep run in the tournament.

Leipzig’s Struggles: RB Leipzig’s recent performance raises concerns, particularly their lackluster showing against Union Berlin, where they managed only a draw despite dominating possession. This suggests vulnerabilities that Atletico can exploit, especially in a challenging away environment.

NFL: New England Patriots at New York Jets

Pick: Jets -6 / Wager: 2%

Injury Impact: The Patriots could be without key offensive linemen Vederian Lowe and Sidy Sow, along with linebacker Oshane Ximines. Losing leading tackler Ja’Whaun Bentley for the season is a significant blow, which opens up running lanes for the Jets. This could allow Breece Hall to capitalize on a weakened Patriots defense.

Home Field Advantage: This game marks Aaron Rodgers’ first true home game with the Jets, creating an exciting atmosphere. The Jets’ recent victory over the Patriots in January, coupled with Rodgers leading the offense, adds to the confidence and momentum as they look to build on that success.

Offensive Matchup: The Patriots’ offense has struggled, particularly with Jacoby Brissett averaging only 135.0 passing yards per game. This limited attack makes it challenging to keep pace with the Jets, who have a more dynamic offense under Rodgers. The Jets are likely to exploit the Patriots’ defensive weaknesses, leading to a potential blowout.

Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson over 17.5 Carries @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Volume Expectation: Given the Jets’ struggles against the run, Stevenson is expected to see a heavy workload. He has already recorded over 20 carries in two games this season, ranking third in the NFL for rushing attempts. With the Patriots likely leaning on their ground game, this prop bet presents solid value.

Game Plan Insights: The Patriots under head coach Jarod Mayo maintain an old-school mentality focused on the run, especially against a Jets defense that has shown vulnerabilities. The expectation is for Stevenson to carry the ball frequently, particularly with the Jets lacking two top pass rushers and showing weaknesses in their run defense.

Motivation and Context: The under series between these teams suggests a focus on the ground game. With a need to control the clock and keep the Jets’ offense off the field, expect New England to emphasize running the ball, further supporting the likelihood that Stevenson surpasses 17.5 carries.

NCAAF: South Alabama at Appalachian State

Pick: South Alabama -7 / Wager: 3%

Impressive Quarterback Play: Gio Lopez has been exceptional this season, throwing for 10 touchdowns without a single interception. His ability to lead the South Alabama offense gives them a strong advantage, especially after their dominant 87-10 victory over Northwestern State.

Defensive Concerns for Appalachian State: While South Alabama’s defense has struggled, Appalachian State faces challenges of its own, particularly on the offensive line. With only one starter returning, the lack of protection could hinder quarterback Joey Aguilar’s performance, especially against a South Alabama defense that can pressure the quarterback.

Recent Performance Trends: Appalachian State’s recent narrow escape against East Carolina, where Aguilar threw two interceptions despite throwing for 424 yards, highlights potential vulnerabilities. Given their struggles, combined with South Alabama’s offensive prowess, I believe the Jaguars can cover the spread and potentially secure the upset in Boone.

MLB: Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Braves -1.5 / Wager: 4%

Pitching Advantage: Rookie Julian Aguiar has benefited from considerable run support in his first six starts, but today he faces a significant challenge against Chris Sale. Sale has been dominant in his last seven outings, allowing just 6 runs in 45 innings (1.20 ERA), and has posted an even more impressive September ERA of 0.47. This matchup heavily favors the Braves.

Team Momentum: The Braves are coming off a strong 7-1 victory, showing their urgency as they chase playoff positioning. With only a couple of games separating them from the wild card, they can’t afford to slip against a struggling Reds team.

Offensive Trends: The Reds have averaged 7 runs per game in support of Aguiar, but it’s unlikely they can replicate that against a pitcher of Sale’s caliber. Expect the Braves’ potent lineup to capitalize on any opportunities, making a multi-run victory likely.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Brewers -1.5 @ +180 / Wager: 2%

Pitching Performance: Tobias Myers has been a key contributor for the Brewers, boasting 11 of his 13 wins coming by 2 runs or more. His ability to consistently give his team a chance to win adds confidence to the Brewers’ lineup, especially against the Diamondbacks.

Historical Matchup: In their previous meeting, the Brewers convincingly defeated the D-backs. This historical performance bodes well for Milwaukee as they face a team that has struggled against them recently.

Team Momentum: The Brewers are playing solid baseball, and unlike many teams in the playoff race, they have some breathing room. This allows them to play with confidence and a relaxed mindset, further enhancing their chances of a strong performance.