Strong Bounce Back as BrownBagBets Sweeps MLB Plays - September Momentum Continues

Last night was exactly what we needed to recover from a tough weekend. We ran the table in MLB plays, going 3-0 and hitting all of our larger percentage wagers. To make it even better, we avoided the popular but risky Eagles -5.5 pick, which didn’t cover. All in all, it was a strong night at 4-2.

At BrownBagBets, our approach is about more than just one day. It’s a monthly process. One night’s result, whether a big win or a tough loss, doesn’t define the outcome. What makes our strategy stand apart is the long-term focus. We’re not chasing daily wins; we’re building a sustainable, consistent return on investment that grows over the entire month. It’s the collective effort over 30 days that brings us to success, and September is continuing to shape up in our favor.

As we look to today, the Champions League takes center stage, with its exciting new League Round format. We’ve got our eyes on the best opportunities across the matches, ready to apply the same careful analysis that’s been bringing results all month long.

Let’s keep the momentum going!

Champions League: Liverpool at AC Milan

Pick: AC Milan +0.5 / Wager: 1%

Recent Form: Liverpool's recent 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest raises concerns about their consistency under new manager Arne Slot. This unexpected defeat suggests that Liverpool may struggle to secure points when not performing at their best, especially in a challenging away fixture like the San Siro.

AC Milan's Momentum: In contrast, AC Milan showcased a powerful performance under new manager Paulo Fonseca, scoring four goals against Venezia in a dominant display. The early success, particularly with new signing Tammy Abraham finding the net, indicates that Milan is gaining confidence and cohesion as a squad.

Tactical Matchup: Liverpool's new approach, which favors a slower build-up, may be vulnerable against a Milan side that appears to be in form. With the home advantage and recent performances, Milan could effectively capitalize on Liverpool's potential defensive frailties, making the +0.5 line a valuable option.

Champions League: Stuttgart at Real Madrid

Pick: Real Madrid -1.5 / Wager: 1%

Class Disparity: Real Madrid enters this matchup as the reigning European champions, significantly elevating their status compared to Stuttgart, who currently sit mid-table in the Bundesliga. The talent gap between these two teams suggests a likely dominant performance from Madrid.

Recent Form: Following an impressive 2-0 victory against Real Sociedad over the weekend, Madrid is building momentum and confidence. The addition of Kylian Mbappé from PSG further enhances their attacking prowess, making them a formidable opponent for any team.

Home Advantage: Playing at the Santiago Bernabéu provides an additional edge for Real Madrid, as they are known for their strong home performances in European competitions. Given Stuttgart's struggles against elite teams, Madrid is well-positioned to win by at least two goals.

Champions League: Lille at Sporting Lisbon

Pick: Sporting Lisbon ML / Wager: 1%

Impressive Form: Sporting Lisbon has made a remarkable start to the new season, boasting five consecutive wins, scoring 19 goals while conceding just two. This dominant form highlights their offensive capabilities and defensive solidity, positioning them as strong contenders in this matchup.

Quality Victories: Their recent 2-0 victory against rivals Porto demonstrates their ability to perform against elite competition. This success boosts their confidence heading into the Champions League, where they can leverage their momentum against Lille.

Lille's Struggles: In contrast, Lille is struggling, having lost their last three games and currently sitting eighth in the Ligue 1 table. Their recent poor form suggests they may struggle to compete effectively against a well-organized and high-flying Sporting Lisbon side.

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Orioles ML @ +100 / Wager: 2%

Orioles' Home Advantage: The Orioles return home after a much-needed day off and are eager to regain their winning form. Facing a struggling Giants team that has lost 15 of their last 22 games gives Baltimore a solid opportunity to capitalize on their home advantage.

Pitching Matchup Insights: While the pitching matchup might seem to favor the Giants with Blake Snell on the mound, his road performance has been inconsistent, and he has a poor history at this ballpark. Snell often struggles to go deep into games, which could expose the Giants' bullpen.

Value Play: Given the circumstances, taking the Orioles at even money presents great value. They are the better team in this matchup, and with the Giants faltering, Baltimore is well-positioned to secure the win.

MLB: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Guardians ML / Wager: 2%

Twins' Recent Struggles: The Twins have been in a significant slump, losing 18 of their last 27 games. Their performance has been underwhelming, leading to concerns about their ability to compete effectively, especially against a team like the Guardians that is showing signs of improvement.

Guardians' Momentum: After a disappointing August, the Guardians have bounced back with a 10-5 record this month. This resurgence gives them the confidence needed to take on the struggling Twins, especially at home.

Pitching Analysis: While Gavin Williams' 7.07 home ERA may raise eyebrows, it's worth noting that this figure is based on a small sample size of just five games. His recent performances have been more promising, with a 4.35 ERA in his last two outings. Additionally, he was excellent against the Twins in their previous matchup on August 10. In contrast, Twins starter Zebby Matthews has even worse numbers, reinforcing the Guardians' position as the favored team in this matchup.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Cardinals ML / Wager: 3%

Motivation for the Cardinals: With Manager Oliver Marmol's job potentially on the line, the Cardinals are likely to be motivated to finish the season strong. Their solid home record of five games above .500 adds to their confidence as they face a struggling Pirates team.

Pirates' Road Struggles: The Pirates have struggled away from home, currently sitting six games under .500. Following Monday's 4-0 loss to the Cardinals, they need to show resilience, but their performance this season suggests they may falter again.

Pitching Matchup: Bailey Falter takes the mound for Pittsburgh with a 4.73 ERA on the road and a notably higher 6.75 ERA in his lone start against the Cardinals. In contrast, St. Louis has had success against left-handed pitchers, holding a winning record of 21-19, which could bode well for their chances in this matchup. Additionally, the potential absence of Oneil Cruz further weakens the Pirates' lineup.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Pick: Rockies ML @ +130 / Wager: 2%

D-backs' Struggles: The Diamondbacks are feeling the pressure as they fight for an NL wild card spot, and last night's loss at Coors Field only adds to their frustration. With Jordan Montgomery starting and posting a 6.25 ERA, there's uncertainty about his effectiveness, especially after being demoted to the bullpen.

Pitching Matchup: Ryan Feltner takes the mound for the Rockies, and he represents a more reliable option for Colorado. With the Rockies winning the opener of this series 3-2, they seem to be finding their rhythm at home, which could play to their advantage tonight.

Motivation and Form: The Rockies, despite their overall season struggles, can capitalize on the D-backs' recent inconsistency. The situation suggests an opportunity for Colorado to continue their positive momentum, particularly against a D-backs team that might be lacking confidence.

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels

Pick: White Sox ML @ +145 / Wager: 2%

Angels' Recent Struggles: The Angels have been on a downward spiral, losing six straight games and 44 of their last 68. Their lineup has become increasingly uninspiring, reminiscent of a Cactus League squad rather than a competitive team. This trend creates an opportunity for the White Sox to capitalize.

White Sox's Resilience: The White Sox are displaying newfound determination, having won three straight games. With the pressure of potentially setting a new loss record behind them, they seem focused on finishing the season strong. This mindset could translate into a crucial victory against a struggling opponent.

Pitching Matchup: Davis Martin, despite some recent bad luck, holds a respectable 4.14 ERA. In contrast, Angels starter Griffin Canning has a higher ERA of 5.35, indicating vulnerability. This pitching disparity gives the White Sox a solid chance to pull off an upset and extend their winning streak.

MLB: Houston Astros at San Diego Padres

Pick: Astros ML / Wager: 3%

Recent Performance: The Padres are riding a four-game winning streak, allowing just four runs during this stretch. Since July 20, they boast an impressive 36-15 record, demonstrating a significant turnaround and strong form heading into this matchup.

Pitching Matchup: While both Hunter Brown and Michael King are talented pitchers, the Padres have the momentum of playing at home in front of a sellout crowd at Petco Park. The energy and support from the fans can play a crucial role in their performance.

Offensive Edge: Astros leads MLB with a .275 batting average against right-handed pitching, significantly outperforming other teams. They also rank third in OPS (.766), highlighting their offensive capabilities. This potent offense, combined with their recent form, makes them a solid choice to continue their winning ways against the Astros.