Bouncing Back from NFL Setbacks: Monday’s Betting Slate

A Day to Forget, but Lessons to Learn:
Let’s face it: yesterday was tough—brutal, even. It marked our worst single NFL day in five years, a rock-bottom moment in what has been an uncharacteristically challenging NFL season for us. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. It was bad, and we’re not proud of it.

But here’s the thing: we don’t stay down. We can’t. In sports betting, as in life, the only way forward is to move on, regroup, and focus on what we can control. Yes, we’ll analyze. Yes, we’ll dig deeper. But wallowing won’t help—we’ve got work to do, and there are still plenty of opportunities ahead.

Resilience in the Face of Setbacks:
This is what the BrownBagBets process is all about: resilience, discipline, and learning from adversity. We’ve built this community on the foundation that setbacks don’t define us—it’s how we respond to them that matters.

While yesterday might have tested us, it doesn’t shake our belief in the system. For five years, this process has delivered consistent results. One bad day—no matter how bad—won’t undo all that we’ve accomplished together. The focus now is on staying disciplined, doubling down on what works, and continuing to execute the strategy that’s carried us through every challenge.

Today’s Slate – A Fresh Start Awaits:

• Monday Night Football:

  • A single game on the board today gives us the chance to reset and approach the NFL with a sharper focus.

• NCAAB, NBA, and NHL:

  • These sports have been our bright spots all season, and we’ll continue to lean on them as pillars of today’s strategy.

• EPL Plays:

  • With soccer offering additional value opportunities, we’ll diversify the board and look to build momentum outside of the NFL.

Final Thought – The Only Way Is Forward:
Yesterday is behind us, and while it might be a day we’d all like to forget, it’s also a reminder of why we do what we do: analyze, adjust, and keep moving forward. This isn’t about perfection—it’s about progress and perseverance. Today is a new day, and we’re ready to bounce back with a sharper focus and the same commitment that has defined us for five years. Let’s make it count.

NFL: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

Pick: Under 43 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Demario Davis under 8.5 total tackles and assists / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This matchup features two teams that lean heavily on their defenses and the ground game, both of which are conducive to an under hitting in a cold-weather environment. The Saints are one of the most consistent under teams in the NFL when playing outdoors, with a 19-6 record to the under since 2021. The Packers similarly trend under as a home favorite, particularly in frigid conditions.

The Saints' offense has been inconsistent, and quarterback Spencer Rattler faces a Packers defense that has steadily improved throughout the season. Green Bay, as a two-touchdown favorite, is likely to lean on their rushing attack, which accounts for over 51% of their play calls — the third-highest rate in the league. Expect a slow-paced, grind-it-out game plan from both sides, especially with the potential for freezing rain, which could further suppress offensive output.

Demario Davis Spotlight:
The Saints linebacker, who rarely leaves the field, has been a tackling machine recently, logging double-digit tackles in three of his past five games. However, this matchup isn’t ideal for him to hit 9+ tackles and assists:

• Run-Heavy Game Plan: While the Packers run the ball frequently, their rushing attack focuses on stretching the field horizontally, which could limit opportunities for Davis to rack up tackles between the tackles.

• Weather Impact: The cold and potential rain could further slow the pace of the game, leading to fewer plays and, by extension, fewer tackle opportunities.

• Matchup Data: In games where the Packers win comfortably and dominate time of possession through the run, opposing linebackers tend to fall short of inflated tackle props.

Betting Indicators

1. Under Trends: The Saints are 13-2 to the under in their last 15 outdoor games, with only two exceeding 39 points.

2. Packers Under as Home Favorites: Green Bay is 7-3-1 to the under as a home favorite over the past two seasons.

3. Pace and Weather: With a projected run-heavy game plan and suboptimal weather conditions, expect both teams to chew up the clock, limiting scoring opportunities.

4. Demario Davis Prop Context: While Davis has been productive, the Packers' offensive scheme may limit his ability to exceed this high total for tackles and assists.

Projection

Expect a cold-weather, low-scoring affair dominated by running games and field position. Demario Davis should see a modest night by his standards, with tackle opportunities capped by the Packers' offensive approach and the weather's impact.

Final Score Projection: Packers 24, Saints 13

NCAAF - Myrtle Beach Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs University Texas at San Antonio (UTSA)

Pick: UTSA -12.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The Myrtle Beach Bowl presents a lopsided matchup due to the stark contrast in roster stability and momentum. Coastal Carolina has been decimated by the transfer portal, losing both of their FBS-level quarterbacks, Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim. The Chanticleers are left with freshman Tad Hudson under center, a player with zero collegiate passing experience. Head Coach Tim Beck has expressed concerns about the impact of these departures, making Coastal heavily reliant on their rushing attack, which averaged a respectable 180 yards per game. However, such predictability plays right into UTSA's defensive strengths.

On the other hand, UTSA has weathered the transfer portal storm with minimal defections and enters this game in top form. Under head coach Jeff Traylor, the Roadrunners have built momentum, averaging 42 points per game over the final six contests. Quarterback Owen McCown has been electric, leading a high-powered offense capable of exploiting Coastal’s shaky defense. While UTSA struggled on the road this season, this neutral site game presents a softer test against a Coastal team in turmoil.

Betting Indicators

1. Roster Stability: Coastal Carolina’s key losses, particularly at quarterback, leave them with an inexperienced offense ill-equipped to keep pace with UTSA.

2. Momentum: UTSA has scored 42+ points per game in the latter half of the season, showing their offensive efficiency and rhythm.

3. Defensive Edge: The Roadrunners' defense is built to neutralize predictable rushing attacks, which Coastal will heavily lean on with a freshman QB.

4. Coaching and Continuity: Jeff Traylor's UTSA squad remains largely intact, offering consistency against a Coastal program disrupted by player exits.

Projection

The disparity in offensive capability and roster stability points strongly toward a UTSA cover. Expect the Roadrunners to pull away early and control the game, leaving Coastal struggling to keep up with a one-dimensional attack.

Final Score Projection: UTSA 41, Coastal Carolina 17

NCAAB: Cal State Bakersfield at North Dakota State

Pick: North Dakota State -8.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

North Dakota State (NDSU) enters this matchup as one of the hottest teams in the mid-major landscape, riding a seven-game winning streak. Meanwhile, Cal State Bakersfield (CSUB) has stumbled through its last eight games with a 2-6 record, and their road woes are particularly alarming.

Key Factors for NDSU:

1. Home Dominance: NDSU has been solid at home, leveraging their size and depth to control the tempo and dominate the boards.

2. Improved Form: Since the teams' earlier meeting on Nov. 11—an 86-81 Bakersfield victory—NDSU has significantly tightened its defense, limiting opponents to fewer than 65 points per game during their win streak.

3. Bakersfield’s Struggles on the Road: CSUB is 1-5 in road games, losing by an average margin of 16 points per game. The travel to Fargo, ND—where the weather will be far from welcoming—only adds to the Roadrunners’ challenges.

Matchup Reassessment:
In their first meeting, Bakersfield shot well above their season averages, including an unsustainable clip from three-point range. NDSU's recent form suggests they’ve adjusted defensively, and they’ve demonstrated the ability to exploit teams that struggle away from home. With Bakersfield’s offense sputtering and NDSU’s continued improvement, this rematch favors the Bison.

Betting Indicators

• Current Form: NDSU is riding a seven-game win streak, while Bakersfield has lost five of six on the road.

• Home Advantage: The Bison thrive in Fargo, where they can dictate the pace against a team ill-suited for cold-weather travel.

• Line Value: The earlier matchup and recent form indicate this line could climb, so backing NDSU at -8.5 provides value.

Projection

With NDSU’s momentum and Bakersfield’s road struggles, expect the Bison to pull away late and cover the spread comfortably in this pre-Christmas matchup.

Final Score Projection: North Dakota State 75, Cal State Bakersfield 61

NHL: New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils

Pick: Under 6.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

This matinee showdown at the Prudential Center sets up for a lower-scoring affair, driven by strategic adjustments and stellar goaltending. The Rangers, under Peter Laviolette, appear to be slowing the game’s pace, likely to shield their vulnerable defense. This shift has notably reduced their offensive output, with only nine goals scored over their last five games.

Jonathan Quick, returning to the crease for New York, has been solid this season with a 2.47 GAA but has shown some regression in December. On the other side, New Jersey’s Jacob Markstrom is in elite form, boasting a sparkling 1.14 GAA and .942 save percentage across seven December starts, including a shutout against the Penguins. His dominance between the pipes, combined with a Devils team that has tightened up defensively, creates a recipe for a tightly contested, low-scoring game.

Betting Indicators

1. Rangers' Pace Adjustment: Laviolette's strategic emphasis on defense has led to fewer high-scoring games, evidenced by New York’s scoring struggles and improved defensive metrics in recent matchups.

2. Goaltending Form: Jacob Markstrom’s stellar December form and Jonathan Quick’s steady presence create a strong foundation for a low total.

3. Historical Context: The past three meetings between these teams in New Jersey have averaged fewer than 5.5 goals.

Projection

Both teams are expected to lean on their goalies and conservative play, keeping chances to a minimum. This game should stay well under the 6.5 total as defensive priorities dictate the pace.

Final Score Projection: Devils 3, Rangers 2

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls

Pick: Zach LaVine Over 20.5 Points / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Zach LaVine is poised for a bounce-back performance after being held to just 14 points in a blowout loss to the Celtics. Prior to that, he showcased his scoring prowess with 30+ points in three of his last four outings. Against the Bucks this season, LaVine has been effective, scoring 25 and 27 points in their two prior meetings.

Milwaukee’s defense takes a hit with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined due to a back issue. Giannis’ absence removes a key defensive anchor, opening up opportunities for LaVine to attack the basket and exploit matchups. Transition offense is a particular strength for LaVine, where he ranks as the NBA’s seventh leading scorer. The Bucks, who allow the 7th most points in transition, provide an ideal setting for LaVine to thrive.

LaVine has consistently delivered against subpar defenses, clearing this line in 11 of 14 games against teams ranked in the bottom 13 defensively. With Milwaukee fitting that profile, the matchup sets up well for the Bulls star to have another strong scoring performance.

Betting Indicators

1. Head-to-Head Matchups: LaVine has exceeded 20.5 points in both games against Milwaukee this season.

2. Team Matchup: Milwaukee’s defense, particularly in transition, aligns with LaVine’s strengths.

3. Impact of Injuries: Giannis’ absence leaves a defensive void that benefits LaVine’s scoring opportunities.

4. Recent Form: LaVine has hit this total in 15 of 25 games this season and 3 of his last 5 overall.

Projection

LaVine capitalizes on a favorable matchup and absence of key defenders to deliver a strong scoring performance, comfortably clearing 20.5 points.

Final Projection: Zach LaVine finishes with 26 points.