NFL Sunday Picks: BrownBagBets Bankroll Bounce Back & Strategy

Yesterday was a challenging day, with our NCAAF plays going 5-6, which gave us a hit we didn’t expect. However, as always, our approach at BrownBagBets ensures we have stability even when things don’t go perfectly. Our 4% Braves play came through and helped keep our bankroll steady! It’s all about long-term strategy and not letting a tough day throw us off.

As we roll into NFL Sunday, we’re sitting at 110% of our starting bankroll for the month. Today, we’ve got a full slate of NFL games lined up, and we’re ready to bounce back stronger. At BrownBagBets, it’s not about winning every day—it’s about managing each day to keep winning in the long run. Let’s attack this NFL Sunday and end the week on a high note!

English Premier League: Newcastle United at Wolverhampton FC

Implied vs. Statistical Projection: The odds for a draw in this match are set at +260, which implies a 27% chance of the outcome occurring. However, our statistical projection suggests a significantly higher likelihood, estimating the chance of a draw at 35%. This discrepancy highlights the value in betting on the draw.

Historical Context: Historically, Newcastle and Wolves have met 108 times, with 30 of those matches ending in a draw. Recent trends also support this bet, as two of their last four Premier League encounters have ended level. This historical data reinforces the potential for a draw despite Newcastle’s stronger form.

Current Form: Wolverhampton’s struggles at home are evident, having lost five of their last six matches at Molineux. While Newcastle boasts a strong attack and midfield, the statistical projection indicating a higher chance for a draw coupled with Wolverhampton’s defensive improvements suggests that a draw is a more valuable bet compared to the implied odds.

The statistical edge of 35% versus the implied 27% makes the draw bet particularly appealing, reflecting a better value proposition for this match.

Pick: Draw @ +260 / Wager: 1%

NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Motivation and Performance Discrepancies: The Ravens displayed strong performance and resolve in their narrow loss to the Chiefs, being just inches away from a potential game-winning two-point conversion. With Lamar Jackson returning to form and showing effectiveness right from the start, the Ravens are poised for a bounce-back performance. On the other hand, the Raiders struggled in their loss to the Chargers, with new quarterback Gardner Minshew failing to make a significant impact. The contrast in motivation and recent performance suggests a dominant win for the Ravens.

Injury Impact: The Raiders are dealing with injuries to key defensive players, which impacts their ability to apply effective pressure on Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. This weakened defensive front allows Jackson more time and space to exploit defensive gaps, potentially leading to a substantial Ravens victory.

Ravens’ Offensive Capability: Despite concerns about the Ravens’ offensive line, their ability to score is enhanced by the Raiders’ defensive issues. Jackson, who had a strong statistical showing despite a tough game against the Chiefs, should be able to lead a potent Ravens offense against a compromised Raiders defense. The Ravens are well-positioned to cover the -8.5 spread comfortably.

Historical Context: The last matchup between these teams in 2021 saw the Raiders win in overtime, but that was with Derek Carr at quarterback. Given the current dynamics and Jackson’s ability to exploit defensive weaknesses, the Ravens are unlikely to be caught by surprise this time.

Overall Assessment: With a strong Ravens team poised to bounce back from a close loss and a Raiders squad struggling with both injuries and offensive inefficiency, the Ravens are expected to cover the spread of -8.5 effectively.

Pick: Derrick Henry over 71.5 rushing yards / Wager: 2%

Pick: Ravens -8.5 / Wager: 5%

NFL: New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

Post-49ers ATS Trend: Teams facing the 49ers often struggle in their next game, showing poor against-the-spread (ATS) records. The Jets, coming off a physical game against the Niners, are likely to feel the aftereffects, both physically and emotionally. Additionally, playing on a short week increases the potential for injury and fatigue, further tilting the odds in favor of the Titans.

Tennessee’s Home Advantage: The Titans have demonstrated a strong home-field advantage, particularly with young quarterback Will Levis, who performed better at home in 2023. Despite a turnover-prone game against the Bears, the Titans’ defense has been effective, and their offensive line under Bill Callahan excels in the ground game. Levis’ home splits and the Titans’ ability to control the clock through running the ball give them an edge in this matchup.

Jets’ Vulnerabilities: The Jets’ run defense has been a weak spot for years, and the Titans’ running game can exploit this vulnerability. Additionally, the Jets’ defense was on the field for an excessive amount of time in their Monday night game, leading to potential fatigue. With Robert Saleh’s poor road ATS record (9-16-1) and the Jets’ dismal September performance (3-17 over the last seven years), the Titans have a solid opportunity to cover the spread.

Pick: Titans +4 / Wager: 3%

NFL: New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

Team Performance Comparison: The Cowboys delivered an impressive Week 1 performance with a dominant win against the Browns, a significant step up from the Saints’ victory over the Panthers. The Cowboys’ ability to rout teams at home last year, including multiple wins by at least 20 points, suggests a strong potential to cover the spread against New Orleans.

Injury Impact: The Saints are facing key injury concerns, with Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore and left tackle Taliese Fuaga both in question. Lattimore’s potential absence and Fuaga’s downgraded status significantly impact the Saints’ defensive and offensive stability. This creates a favorable matchup for the Cowboys, particularly if they can exploit these weaknesses.

Historical Trends: The Cowboys have shown strong performance as favorites, with a 6-1 ATS record in their past seven games when favored by at least 5 points. The combination of Dallas’s ability to score and New Orleans’s struggles with a compromised lineup supports the expectation that the Cowboys will cover the -6 spread.

Pick: Cowboys -6 / Wager: 3%

NFL: Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots

Recent Performance: The Patriots’ surprising upset in Cincinnati came with significant luck, as they benefited from multiple Cincinnati mistakes including fumbles and missed opportunities. This result may not fully reflect New England’s true performance level, especially when considering the difficulty of repeating such fortune.

Defensive Strength: Under defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks have shown strong defensive capabilities, notably holding the Broncos to just 3.3 yards per play. This indicates a solid defensive unit that can effectively contain opposing offenses, which should work in their favor against New England.

Offensive Trends: Seattle’s offense, led by Ryan Grubb, demonstrated resilience and effectiveness by scoring 17 points in the second half of their last game. This late-game performance suggests that the Seahawks can adjust and capitalize on opportunities, making them likely to cover the -3 spread against the Patriots.

Pick: Seahawks -3 / Wager: 2%

NFL: New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Coaching Concerns: The Giants are under significant scrutiny following a poor Week 1 performance against Minnesota, with head coach Brian Daboll emerging as a strong candidate for the first coach to be fired. This situation adds pressure to the Giants and contributes to their current instability.

Quarterback Issues: Daniel Jones’s performance has been notably disappointing, drawing comparisons to former players like Mitch Trubisky. His struggles and potential injury concerns for starting WR Darius Slayton further weaken the Giants’ offense, making them a vulnerable opponent.

Home Advantage and Excitement: The Commanders’ home opener could bring a boost of energy and excitement, especially with new additions like Jayden Daniels. Despite concerns about Daniels’s heavy workload, the Commanders are likely to capitalize on the Giants’ current issues and win at home.

Pick: Commanders ML / Wager: 3%

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Team Trends: The Rams have had a dominant track record against the Cardinals, boasting a 13-2 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) record since Sean McVay took over. This historical advantage extends back to their days in St. Louis, where they have won and covered in eight consecutive games played in Glendale. The consistent success against the Cardinals suggests strong value in backing the Rams as underdogs.

Cardinals’ Issues: Arizona has exhibited troubling patterns, particularly under new head coach Jonathan Gannon. The team frequently blows halftime leads, as seen in their recent 34-28 loss to Buffalo. Persistent issues with a weak ground game and defensive struggles have been recurring problems, reinforcing skepticism about their ability to cover as favorites.

Rams’ Advantage: Despite the Cardinals’ recent performance and the game being held in Glendale, the Rams’ track record against Arizona and their own form make them a compelling choice. The discrepancy between the Rams’ success in this matchup and their current underdog status raises questions about the value of the Rams +1 bet. The Rams’ solid historical performance and the Cardinals’ ongoing issues contribute to a strong case for betting on the Rams.

Pick: Rams +1 / Wager: 4%

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Market Perception: Despite the Steelers’ Week 1 upset of the Falcons, the line remains unchanged from the lookahead, reflecting skepticism about their offense. The Steelers managed only 4.1 yards per play and scored no touchdowns in their win, signaling that their offensive struggles are acknowledged by the market.

Broncos Defense: The Broncos’ defense outperformed expectations against the Seahawks and is likely to keep the game low-scoring. This plays to the Broncos’ advantage, especially with the Steelers struggling offensively. The Broncos’ home field advantage and the fact they are catching a full field goal add value to the pick.

Altitude and Injuries: The Steelers are facing a second consecutive road game at high altitude, which can be challenging. Additionally, the Steelers are dealing with cluster injuries on their offensive line. This scenario, combined with the Broncos’ focus on bouncing back from a poor start last season, makes the home dog an appealing bet.

Pick: Broncos +3 / Wager: 3%

NFL: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Reasons for Chiefs -5.5:

The Chiefs, despite missing Marquise Brown, showed they could function well offensively in Week 1. The Bengals, however, face significant personnel issues with Tee Higgins, Amarius Mims, and Tanner Hudson all doubtful. This leaves Ja’Marr Chase as the primary focus for the Chiefs’ defense. Kansas City’s ability to exploit a weakened Bengals’ defense line, combined with their strong offensive line, suggests a substantial advantage. The line at -5.5 is considered favorable, and a move to -6 would still present value given Kansas City’s dominance.

Reasons for Isiah Pacheco over 69.5 rushing yards:

The Bengals’ defensive front has struggled, particularly against the run, which aligns well with Pacheco’s strengths. Kansas City’s elite interior offensive line is likely to create significant rushing lanes. Pacheco exceeded 69.5 rushing yards in seven of his last ten games last season, including the playoffs, and this matchup could be one of his most productive performances of the season. With the Bengals’ defense faltering, Pacheco has a strong opportunity to surpass this yardage prop.

Pick: Chiefs -5.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Isiah Pacheco over 69.5 rushing yards / Wager: 2%

NFL: Chicago Bears at Houston Texans

Line Movement Analysis: The line has jumped from Texans -3.5 to -6.5, indicating a significant shift in perception. This adjustment suggests the market views the Texans as a much stronger team than initially anticipated.

Chicago Bears Performance: The Bears’ victory last week was bolstered by a blocked punt and an interception return for a touchdown, masking their offensive inefficiency. They managed only 2.8 yards per play, raising concerns about their ability to compete against a stronger opponent.

Houston Texans Offense: The Texans’ offense is showing top-tier potential, which should pose a serious challenge to the Bears’ defense. Given their current form, they are well-positioned to exploit Chicago’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Pick: Texans -6.5 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins

Team Form and Performance: The Twins are struggling, having lost 8 of their last 11 games. Their recent performance has allowed other American League wild card contenders to remain in the race, putting added pressure on Minnesota. With the season nearing its end, these struggles are coming at a critical juncture.

Pitching Matchups: David Festa, scheduled to pitch for the Twins, has been ineffective lately. Minnesota has lost his last four starts, and Festa’s ERA sits at 6.00 through his recent September appearances. His struggles could further exacerbate the Twins’ current slump.

Reds’ Potential: The Reds have shown they can play spoiler in recent weeks, and with rookie Rhett Lowder on the mound, they’re in a strong position. Lowder has been outstanding with a 0.59 ERA in his last three starts, indicating that he can handle high-pressure situations effectively. This combination of current form and pitching advantage makes Cincinnati a compelling pick to win.

Pick: Reds ML @ +135 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

Pitching Advantage: The Orioles are starting rookie Cade Povich, who has struggled significantly this season with a 2-8 record and a 7.23 ERA in his last eight appearances since July. This presents a clear opportunity for the Tigers to exploit a less experienced and less effective pitcher.

Recent Performance: Despite a 4-2 loss to the Orioles on Saturday, the Tigers did not lose ground in the AL wild card race due to the Twins also losing. This keeps Detroit in a competitive position and adds motivation for a strong performance in the series finale.

Tigers’ Pitching Form: Keider Montero is coming off a strong performance with a three-hit shutout against the Rockies on Tuesday. While Montero has been inconsistent, his recent form suggests he can hold his own against the Orioles. With the Orioles’ current form showing a downturn (sub-.500 ball for over three months), the Tigers have a solid chance to capitalize on their pitching matchup and win the game.

Pick: Tigers ML / Wager: 3%