Bounce Back Strong: Big EPL & College Football Plays Ahead

Last night didn’t go as planned, with a 1-4 record across our picks. But here’s the thing—this is precisely why the BrownBagBets approach is so reliable and built for long-term success. One night doesn’t define the month, and it certainly doesn’t derail our strategy. What sets us apart is our ability to manage bankroll intelligently, adjust when necessary, and avoid the emotional rollercoaster that many sports bettors fall into. Our goal has never been to win every night, but rather to win the month and secure passive income. With a proven system of balancing risk and reward, days like yesterday are just small blips on a much larger path toward consistent profits.

Looking ahead to today, we’ve got our eyes on two big EPL matches, with one featuring none other than the defending league champions. Plus, it’s a massive day of College Football, with Alabama at Wisconsin being a highlight. We see great value there and across the board in several other matchups. Expect double-digit plays coming at you today from BrownBagBets.

Let’s take this day and make it count. Let’s win this!

English Premier League: Ipswich Town at Brighton

Scoring Trends: Brighton are known for their offensive prowess, but Ipswich Town’s recent matches suggest fewer goals. With Brighton likely to dominate, a 2-0 scoreline is plausible, keeping the game under 3.5 goals. Brighton also has some players dealing with knocks, which may impact their attacking fluency.

Recent Match Analysis: Ipswich Town’s recent games have often been low-scoring, aligning with the expectation that this match could stay under 3.5 goals. The prediction supports this, with a 61% chance of fewer than 3.5 goals being scored.

Pick: Under 3.5 goals / Wager: 1%

English Premier League: Brentford at Manchester City

City’s Dominance: Manchester City has shown a strong trend of high-margin victories, including recent 5-1 and 4-0 wins. With their current form, they have an 87% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals in their games.

Match Expectations: The expectation is that Manchester City will comfortably win by more than 2.5 goals, continuing their trend of dominant performances. This margin reflects their recent high-scoring games and overall team strength.

Pick: Manchester City -2.5 @ +120 / Wager: 2%

NCAAF: Alabama at Wisconsin

Team Dynamics: Alabama’s strength is apparent with Jalen Milroe’s impressive season, featuring five touchdowns, no interceptions, and nearly 70% completions. However, the absence of Nick Saban and the challenging road environment might impact their performance. Wisconsin, led by new quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, has 15 returning starters and benefits from a strong home crowd.

Recent Performance: Wisconsin’s 2-0 record this season, while not covering a spread yet, suggests they’re competitive. Alabama’s nine returning starters, including key positions on the offensive line, highlight their strength, but the lack of Saban and the tough road game environment are significant factors.

Pick: Wisconsin +16.5 / Wager: 2%

NCAAF: Boston College at Missouri

Defensive Strength: Both teams have combined for three shutouts in their first four games, underscoring their defensive prowess. Missouri’s defense has been particularly dominant, allowing just 254 yards in their two games this season.

Scoring Trends: With both teams showing strong defensive performances, high-scoring outcomes seem unlikely. Boston College’s impressive start is expected to face a tough challenge against Missouri’s defense.

Pick: Under 54.5 / Wager: 2%

NCAAF: Cincinnati at Miami (OH)

Historical Context: Miami (OH) ended Cincinnati’s 16-game series win streak in their last matchup, a 27-24 overtime victory at Nippert Stadium. This historic win was a significant boost for the RedHawks and led to a highly successful season. Given that they managed to break the streak last year, it’s worth considering if they are undervalued in this matchup.

Team Form and Motivation: Cincinnati’s psyche might be fragile following their collapse against Pittsburgh, where they blew a 27-6 lead. The Bearcats’ defense allowed nearly 500 total yards, indicating potential ongoing issues that Miami (OH) could exploit. The loss could have lingering effects on Cincinnati’s performance.

Team Strengths: Miami (OH) has had a week to recover from a close 13-6 loss to Northwestern, and they return most of their key players, including QB Brett Gabbert, from last season. With a strong core and additional preparation time, the RedHawks are well-positioned to challenge Cincinnati effectively.

Pick: Miami (OH) +3.5 / Wager: 4%

NCAAF: UMass at Buffalo

Team Form and Matchup: Buffalo delivered a solid performance in Week 1 with a convincing win over Lafayette, which bolstered confidence in their current form. UMass, meanwhile, has struggled in their early games, losing both by double digits.

UMass Struggles: The Minutemen have yet to show significant improvement, and a hypothetical boost from a basketball player like Marcus Camby wouldn’t change their current football form.

Pick: Buffalo ML / Wager: 2%

NCAAF: West Virginia at Pittsburgh

Reasons for the Pick: Historical performance in this rivalry often leads to low-scoring games, as evidenced by last year’s matchup where only 23 points were scored. West Virginia is facing its first road game of the season, which typically challenges offenses and can lead to a slower-paced game. Coach Neal Brown’s tendency to favor a run-heavy strategy further contributes to a clock-eating approach, reducing the potential for high scoring.

Indicators Supporting the Pick: Model projections forecast a total of 57 points, which is significantly below the 64.5 line, indicating value in betting the Under. Rivalry games like the Backyard Brawl generally result in lower-scoring outcomes due to intensified defensive efforts. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s defense has shown strong performance recently, effectively limiting opponents’ scoring and supporting the likelihood of a lower total in this matchup.

Recent Trends: Pittsburgh’s recent game against Cincinnati ended well under the total, reinforcing the trend of lower-scoring games. With both teams demonstrating a tendency towards defensive play and slower game pace, the Under appears to be a sound bet. The combination of these factors suggests that the total will likely remain below the projected line.

Pick: Under 64.5 / Wager: 2%

NCAAF: Oregon at Oregon State

Oregon State’s Motivation: This game represents a significant event for Oregon State, often perceived as the “Little Brother” in this rivalry. The Beavers’ chance to make a statement against Oregon, especially after being left behind in the Pac-12 shuffle, gives them extra motivation. This game serves as their de facto bowl game or Super Bowl, increasing their likelihood of staying within the spread.

Offensive Strategy: Oregon State can control the game’s tempo with their strong rushing attack featuring Jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson. The Beavers’ ability to effectively run the ball, with Griffin accumulating 249 yards and Hankerson adding 226 yards, can help manage the clock and keep the game closer.

Recent Defensive Struggles for Oregon: Last week, Oregon struggled defensively against Boise State’s running game, allowing significant yardage. This recent vulnerability to the run could further benefit Oregon State’s game plan, making it challenging for Oregon to cover the 17-point spread.

Pick: Oregon State +17 / Wager: 2%

NCAAF: Notre Dame at Purdue

High Upside Potential: The significant payout for Purdue to win outright at +320 presents a compelling ROI for a plausible upset. While not the most likely outcome, the potential reward justifies the risk, especially if the game breaks in Purdue’s favor.

Purdue’s Variability: Purdue’s defense has been inconsistent, leading to unpredictable game outcomes. This variability means they are capable of either securing a surprising victory or suffering a heavy defeat. Betting on the moneyline reflects the belief that they have a legitimate chance to cause an upset.

Risk vs. Reward: Opting for the moneyline over the point spread aligns with the high-risk, high-reward nature of the game. If Purdue’s defense can step up, they might pull off the upset, and the potential return on a moneyline bet is much higher than a spread bet in this scenario.

Pick: Purdue ML @ +320 / Wager: 1%

NCAAF: Georgia at Kentucky

Offensive Pace: Both Georgia and Kentucky have exhibited some of the slowest-moving offenses this season. Georgia’s focus on more significant games and Kentucky’s struggling offense suggest a low-scoring affair. This trend aligns with recent patterns where Kentucky has averaged only nine points per game against Georgia in their last seven meetings.

Historical Performance: In the last five matchups, Kentucky has managed to cover the spread in four of them despite a generally low-scoring output against Georgia. Additionally, Georgia has struggled against unranked teams with a poor 1-9-1 ATS record in their last ten games. This historical data supports a lower-scoring expectation.

Game Dynamics: With Kentucky’s offensive limitations and Georgia’s larger objectives, the game is likely to be less about high scoring and more about efficient control. Expect a game with limited scoring opportunities, making the under 45.5 a reasonable bet. The projected final score of Georgia 27, Kentucky 10 reflects this anticipated low-scoring scenario.

Pick: Under 45.5 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

Pitcher Performance: Chris Sale’s outstanding season, featuring a 16-3 record and a 2.38 ERA, makes him a solid choice for the Braves. His recent form includes a 1.15 ERA over his last six starts, all resulting in wins for the Braves. This consistent dominance adds strong support for Atlanta’s Money Line.

Team Urgency: The Braves are showing significant urgency as they fight for the last NL wild card slot. Their recent 6-2 victory over the Dodgers highlights their intent to close the gap with the Mets, D-backs, and Padres. This sense of urgency could further motivate the Braves in this critical matchup.

Historical Context: The Braves are looking to avenge an earlier series sweep by the Dodgers in May. With the Dodgers potentially being a playoff opponent, Atlanta’s recent win against them could be a message sent, adding to their motivation and reinforcing the confidence in backing the Braves on the Money Line.

Pick: Braves ML / Wager: 4%