Monday Night Bounce Back: NFL Showdown & MLB Picks Ahead

Yesterday was a tough one, no doubt about it. Going 4-9, including losing our 5% big play, isn’t what we had in mind. But here’s the thing – at BrownBagBets, this is part of the process. We never let a single day define our month, our strategy, or our success. Every loss is an opportunity to sharpen our insights and make smarter decisions moving forward. Winning long-term is about discipline and sticking to the game plan. One bad day? We’ve been here before, and it’s never stopped us before either.

Today, we’ve got something exciting to turn the page. A big Monday Night Football clash in Philly promises to be a great opportunity to get back on track. Plus, with 10 MLB games on the slate, there’s plenty to work through. Our approach remains the same – steady, calculated, and driven by bankroll intelligence.

Let’s turn the corner and push forward. One bad day won’t undo the work we’ve done, and with the start of the week, we’ve got every chance to make the rest of it a winning one.

We keep our eyes on the long game, and we’re back at it today – ready to cash in!

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley’s Expected Workload: With A.J. Brown sidelined, the Eagles will rely more heavily on their running game, creating an opportunity for Saquon Barkley to see an increased number of rushing attempts. In the previous week, the Steelers backs managed 26 carries against the Falcons’ defense, despite not being as effective as Barkley. Barkley received 24 carries in his debut with the Eagles, and given the absence of Brown, a similar workload is anticipated. This should comfortably exceed the 17.5 rushing attempts line.

Jahan Dotson’s Opportunity: With A.J. Brown out, Jahan Dotson is expected to see more opportunities in the receiving game. The 27.5 receiving yards line is set fairly low, and given the new offensive coordinator's strategy that benefits Dotson, this line is likely to climb closer to game time. This provides value in taking the over on Dotson’s receiving yards.

Dallas Goedert’s Increased Role: With A.J. Brown sidelined, Dallas Goedert’s role in the offense will increase. The new offensive scheme also emphasizes the tight end, and Goedert is projected to have around 4.5 receptions. Given this, taking the over on 3.5 receptions presents good value, especially before the line adjusts as the game approaches.

Overall Assessment: With A.J. Brown out and a strategy shift towards utilizing Barkley and Goedert more, these prop bets align with expected changes in the Eagles' offensive game plan. The Falcons' defensive struggles and the Eagles' adjustments provide a solid foundation for these picks.

Pick: Saquon Barkley Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts / Wager: 2%

Pick: Jahan Dotson Over 27.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Pick: Dallas Goedert Over 3.5 Receptions / Wager: 2%

MLB: Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs

Motivation for the Cubs: The Cubs are in a crucial stretch of games as they fight for a wildcard spot. While their chances may be slim, a sweep of the Athletics is essential for maintaining any hope of postseason contention. This urgency adds a layer of motivation that should drive the Cubs to secure a decisive win.

Shota Imanaga's Home Performance: Shota Imanaga has been exceptional at home with a 5-2 record and a 2.93 ERA. His strong performance on familiar turf provides a solid foundation for the Cubs to cover the -1.5 run line.

Athletics’ Recent Struggles: The Athletics have struggled recently, including back-to-back losses on the South Side of Chicago. Losing in such a manner in 2024 indicates potential weaknesses that the Cubs should be able to exploit, especially with their playoff hopes on the line.

Summary: Given the Cubs’ critical need to win and Imanaga’s impressive home performance, combined with the Athletics’ recent difficulties, taking the Cubs to cover the -1.5 run line at +110 offers good value for this game.

Pick: Cubs -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Against Paul Skenes: Despite Paul Skenes' impressive 10-2 record, the Pirates have been only a .500 team in his last 14 starts, highlighting that his presence on the mound hasn't always translated to victories. Skenes' performance against the Cardinals has been solid, allowing just four hits through 8 1/3 innings in their last matchup, but the Cardinals managed to score the decisive run in the ninth inning. Recently, Skenes has struggled to pitch beyond six innings, which may impact his effectiveness.

Andre Pallante's Performance: On the other side, Andre Pallante has been strong against the Pirates, boasting a 1.38 ERA in two starts this season. His effectiveness against this opponent provides a reliable option for the Cardinals to secure a win.

Summary: Given the Pirates' inconsistency with Skenes on the mound recently and Pallante's strong showing against them, the Cardinals offer value as underdogs with a money line of +115.

Pick: Cardinals ML @ +115 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Houston Astros at San Diego Padres

Padres' Recent Form: The Padres have outperformed the Astros since the All-Star break and have continued their strong play into September. Their recent success suggests they are peaking at the right time, making them a formidable opponent.

Yu Darvish's Impact: Yu Darvish, making his third start since returning, adds significant value to this pick. His experience and current form enhance the Padres' chances of securing a convincing win. Darvish’s return to form is a key factor in the Padres’ ability to win by at least two runs.

Summary: While the Astros have been strong recently, the Padres’ superior performance since the break, coupled with Darvish’s solid start, presents value in taking San Diego to win by at least two runs at +175.

Pick: Padres -1.5 @ +175 / Wager: 2%