BrownBagBets @ 115% of Bankroll: A Discipline-Focused Approach to NFL, NHL, and MLB Betting

The Power of Discipline and Long-Term Success

After a week of winning days, this weekend brought us back down to earth with some tough results in both NCAAF and NFL plays. Yesterday’s 6-6 day was the definition of breaking even, but missing on our two larger wagers kept us from tipping into a winning day. Still, here we are, on the 21st day of the month, and our bankroll is sitting at 115% of where we started.

This is exactly what BrownBagBets is all about—passive income over time, not just quick hits or emotional reactions to short-term losses. Even after a weekend of ups and downs, we stand as proof that sticking to the plan works. We’ve built our success on a foundation of discipline: never chase losses, don’t panic, and trust the process. We’re still up for the month, and that’s what matters.

Tonight’s Action: Double Monday Night Football, NHL, and MLB World Series Preparations

Tonight, we’re closing out NFL Week 7 with not one, but two Monday Night Football games. Here’s what we’re watching closely:

  • Ravens vs. Buccaneers:

    • Kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Both teams are sitting at 4-2 and lead their divisions, making this a pivotal matchup between two of the league’s best. We’re breaking down every angle to identify where the value lies in this competitive game.

  • Chargers vs. Cardinals:

    • Kickoff at 9:00 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Arizona. The Chargers are chasing the Chiefs in the AFC West, while the Cardinals are desperate for a win to stay relevant in the NFC West. It’s a high-stakes showdown, and we’ve got our predictions ready for this late-night battle.

MLB: World Series Anticipation

While we wait for Game 1 of the World Series on Friday, we’re not just sitting back—we’re constantly working to find value every day. Following two thrilling League Championship Series, we now have the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees set to square off in a historic World Series matchup.

  • The Dodgers open as -136 favorites, while the Yankees are +116 underdogs. With this being the 12th World Series between these two iconic franchises—and the first since 1981—we’re diving deep into early World Series odds, MVP predictions, and more as we prepare for the Fall Classic.

NHL: Frozen Frenzy and Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

We’ve been so focused on football and baseball that it’s easy to forget how strong our NHL betting has been to start the season. Tonight, we’ve got a key matchup between the Lightning and Maple Leafs, which serves as a warm-up for tomorrow’s Frozen Frenzy, where all 32 NHL teams will be in action.

  • Tonight’s focus is on Tampa Bay Lightning (+120) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-140) at Scotiabank Arena. Our NHL experts have scoured the odds board, and we’re ready to hit the ice with some smart plays.

Stay Disciplined, Stay Profitable

At BrownBagBets, we’ve always been about playing the long game. One bad weekend or a few missed wagers don’t change our approach—because our success isn’t measured by a single day. We stick to what we know works: methodical analysis, disciplined betting, and a refusal to chase losses. This is how we’ve been able to grow our bankroll month after month, ensuring passive income for our community.

With the NFL, NHL, and MLB World Series all in focus, the opportunities this week are endless. Let’s stick to the plan, trust the process, and continue our journey toward another winning month.

English Premier League: Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace
Pick: Both Teams to Score / Wager: 1%
Pick: Draw @ +220 / Wager: 1%
Pick: Correct Score 1-1 @ +500 / Wager: 1%

Scoring Trends Indicate Low Output:
We’re looking at a matchup between Nottingham Forest, who currently hold the record for the lowest combined goals scored and allowed in the league, and Crystal Palace, who are not far behind with the second lowest. This game has all the makings of a low-scoring, uneventful affair. Nottingham Forest has played seven matches this season, and aside from Liverpool, they are the only team to concede less than one goal per match, allowing just six goals in seven outings. This tells us that Forest isn't afraid to lock down defensively and grind out results.

Defensive Strengths Against Struggling Offenses:
While Forest excels defensively, they face a Crystal Palace team yet to secure a victory this season. The Eagles have struggled to find their rhythm and score goals consistently, which is evident in their last few encounters. Recent head-to-head meetings further illustrate this trend, with five consecutive matches hitting the under 2.5 goals mark, and three of those games featuring fewer than 1.5 goals.

Historical Context Favors a Low-Scoring Draw:
A look back at the recent history between these two sides shows that they often cancel each other out. In their last four meetings, we’ve seen three draws, with the most recent encounters ending in 1-1 and 0-0 results. This classic matchup features two teams desperate for a win but lacking the quality to break free from each other.

Personnel Challenges for Both Teams:
Nottingham Forest is facing some significant challenges, including suspensions to key players after their recent draw with Chelsea. With Nuno Espirito Santo and Gibbs-White out, plus the long-term injuries to Danilo and Sangare, their options are limited.

On the other side, Crystal Palace has not found their footing this season, struggling with injuries to key players like Richards and Doucoure. They’ve managed a couple of decent performances but have ultimately fallen short in securing points.

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Over 49.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Ravens -1.5 1st Half Spread / Wager: 2%
Pick: Zay Flowers over 59.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 2%

High-Scoring Expectations:
When it comes to totals, Ravens games have a clear pattern: they either land very close to the number or soar well over it. Even in their two lowest-scoring outings this season, the opener against the Chiefs and the recent matchup against the Bills, a last-second touchdown in Kansas City and a lack of aggression from Buffalo could have easily pushed those games over the total. The Ravens are currently riding a four-game win streak, averaging an impressive 31 points per game. With both Derrick Henry's power and Lamar Jackson's dynamic playmaking ability, opposing defenses are facing a tough challenge. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have allowed scores of 66 and 78 points in their last two contests, indicating a defensive struggle.

Ravens First-Half Advantage:
Our metrics rank the Ravens as one of the best teams in the NFL, and their matchup against Tampa’s defense is promising. The Bucs have significant injury concerns, particularly affecting their defensive line's ability to stop the run and their overall pass coverage. Given these factors, we see value in the Ravens covering a -1.5 spread in the first half, especially with Lamar Jackson’s impressive 22-1 straight-up record against NFC opponents, including 10-1 on the road. Although the Bucs can stay competitive, Baltimore usually starts strong before potentially fading in the fourth quarter.

Zay Flowers Emerging as a Star:
Zay Flowers is quickly establishing himself as Lamar Jackson’s go-to receiver and a legitimate WR1. Coming off back-to-back 100-yard performances, where he turned 21 targets into an impressive 243 yards, Flowers faces a favorable matchup against a Buccaneers secondary that struggles in coverage. His ability to excel against zone coverage, which Tampa plays frequently, makes him a prime candidate to exceed the 59.5 yards receiving mark. Additionally, a high-paced game script could lead to more passing opportunities, further boosting Flowers' potential yardage.

Final thoughts for this one:
With the Ravens’ explosive offense, an advantageous first-half spread, and Zay Flowers' favorable matchup, we confidently back the over and the Ravens to cover. Expect a high-scoring affair as Baltimore continues to build momentum.

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals +1.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: J.K. Dobbins over 77.5 yards rushing / Wager: 2%

Inconsistent Cardinals Look to Bounce Back:
The Cardinals have shown they can be two-faced, displaying brilliance one week and struggling the next, largely depending on quarterback Kyler Murray's performance. When Murray is on his game, Arizona can be formidable, and we believe he will shine against the Chargers’ defense. The recent matchup with the Broncos highlighted how crucial defensive players can shift game dynamics, as seen with the absence of Pat Surtain II, which allowed Justin Herbert to exploit the field effectively. The Chargers may have survived that contest, but they aren't as offensively potent as they appeared in the first half against Denver.

Dobbins Set for a Productive Night:
We are particularly bullish on J.K. Dobbins' prospects in this game. With both starting tackles healthy and going against an Arizona defense that has struggled to stop the run, Dobbins is well-positioned to exceed his rushing total. Arizona allows an average of 153 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per attempt, which bodes well for Dobbins' chances. The Cardinals are missing key defensive players, including first-round defensive end Darius Robinson, with two other starters, Roy Lopez and Kyzir White, listed as questionable. With Gus Edwards on injured reserve, Dobbins faces minimal competition for carries and should see a significant workload in a favorable matchup.

Game Script Favors the Run:
Head coach Jim Harbaugh will likely prioritize the ground game against a struggling Cardinals defensive line. Dobbins has proven capable of breaking long runs, and with his ability to average 84 yards per game when he gets 10 or more carries, this prop is quite achievable. The Cardinals have recently surrendered rushing totals of 187, 216, 153, and 179 yards in their last four games, allowing five rushing touchdowns in that span. Given that the Chargers are a premier time-of-possession team, we expect them to wear down the Arizona defense, leading to a strong showing from Dobbins.

NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs
Pick: Under 6.5 / Wager: 2%

Defensive Trends Favor the Under:
We suspect that seeing a total of 6.5 for games involving the Maple Leafs will become increasingly rare in the coming weeks. Despite facing a formidable opponent like the New York Rangers on Saturday, Toronto managed to produce a scoreline featuring only five goals, with no Leaf game this season exceeding six goals. This trend points to a solid defensive effort from the Maple Leafs, and much of that can be attributed to the impressive performance of Anthony Stolarz, who boasts a 1.79 GAA over four games.

Goaltending Matchup Could Steal the Show:
Tonight, Stolarz will face off against Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has a 2.52 GAA this season. This matchup could very well turn into a classic goalie battle at Scotiabank Arena, where both teams will look to rely on their netminders to keep the game tight. With both teams showcasing defensive capabilities and goaltending prowess, we can expect a lower-scoring affair.

Responsible Gambling Disclaimer

Please be aware that gambling involves risk and should be considered a form of entertainment. It should not be relied upon as a source of income. Ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek advice if necessary. Participation should be moderate and controlled.

At BrownBagBets, while we provide insights and strategies, we do not guarantee winnings and cannot be held responsible for losses resulting from gambling activities. We encourage all members to gamble responsibly and within their means.

Our Approach to Bankroll Management

We advocate for a strategic approach to betting with our innovative bankroll management techniques. Our aim is to help gamblers make informed decisions and extend their playtime and enjoyment. Remember, the smartest bettors always know when to stop.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Contact the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

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A Minor Setback, But The Long Game is Always Our Focus