Accountability, Champions League, NHL Frozen Frenzy & NBA Opening Night

Accountability and Opportunity in a Big Week of Sports

Yesterday didn’t go our way, and it was largely due to our EPL plays going 0-3. We pride ourselves on results, and right now, our EPL approach isn’t delivering. There’s no sugarcoating it: the team responsible for these picks isn’t hitting the standard we’ve set for ourselves, and that’s on us. You deserve better, and BrownBagBets holds itself to a higher level of accountability.

That said, we’re not giving up. We’re working with our EPL experts, managing them closely while considering new sources to improve this area. And if it comes to it, we’ll topgrade. In fact, if you think you’ve got what it takes to become the BrownBagBets EPL Czar, we want to hear from you—email us at info@brownbagbets.com. We’re open to all applicants because we’re committed to giving our community the best.

Champions League, Frozen Frenzy, and NBA Opening Night

While we regroup on the EPL front, there’s no shortage of exciting opportunities today:

• Champions League is back, and we’re loving the new format after two thrilling match weeks. Aston Villa’s upset over Bayern Munich has already set the tone for the tournament, and there’s plenty more drama to come. We’re digging into this week’s matchups, and can’t wait to share what we think will happen.

• It’s also Frozen Frenzy in the NHL, with every team hitting the ice today. That means we’ve got a massive slate to work with, and we’re focused on home teams and undervalued squads that are flying under the radar. Expect plenty of smart plays from our side of the rink.

• Tuesday Night Football brings us two games from Conference USA, and while they may not be marquee matchups, we’re finding value in these smaller games. Our college football team is on it.

• And, as if that wasn’t enough, the NBA is back! We’ve got two great games tonight: the New York Knicks head to Boston to take on the Celtics, and the Minnesota Timberwolves square off against the Los Angeles Lakers. Basketball season is here, and we’re ready to roll with our insights.

The BrownBagBets Philosophy: Accountability and Constant Improvement

At BrownBagBets, we don’t just brush off losses—we learn from them. When things don’t go our way, especially like yesterday with EPL, we take action. That’s what sets us apart: accountability, adjustment, and a commitment to improvement. We’ll continue to hold ourselves to a high standard and provide the best plays for you.

Today, with Champions League, NHL Frozen Frenzy, Tuesday Night Football, and the NBA all in play, we’re looking at plenty of value across the board. Stay tuned for our picks, and let’s get back on track!

Champions League: Club Brugge at AC Milan
Pick: AC Milan -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 2%

A narrow 1-0 victory over Sturm Graz does not exactly scream Champions League readiness for Club Brugge. Their earlier 3-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund serves as a more accurate indicator of what they might face when up against Europe’s elite.

On the other hand, AC Milan comes into this match with renewed confidence after a solid performance, including a recent win against Udinese in Serie A. Manager Paolo Fonseca is likely feeling optimistic, especially with Rafa Leao cleared to return to the starting lineup. With the Rossoneri sitting at 0-2 in the Champions League, they desperately need these three points. We expect Milan to assert themselves and cover the spread comfortably.

Champions League: Red Star Belgrade at Monaco
Pick: Over 3.5 Goals @ +125 / Wager: 2%

Red Star Belgrade finds themselves projected to finish near the bottom of the Champions League standings, sitting at 35th out of 36 teams. When teams are viewed with such low expectations, they often play with a sense of freedom that can lead to exciting matches. With absolutely no pressure on them, we anticipate Belgrade will go all out for goals.

Monaco, meanwhile, has the offensive firepower to net two or three goals in this matchup, even in the absence of Folarin Balogun. We're confident in the Over here, as both teams should find opportunities to score. Despite their failure to hit the net against Inter Milan, Belgrade has still managed to score in 19 of their last 20 matches across all competitions. This matchup promises goals from both sides.

Champions League: Bologna at Aston Villa
Pick: Villa ML / Wager: 2%

Aston Villa Park has established itself as a fortress, evidenced by their recent victory over Bayern Munich in the Champions League on October 2. Coming off a solid 3-1 win against Fulham in league play, the Villans have now scored at least two goals in seven of their nine matches across all competitions.

In contrast, Bologna has struggled significantly, winning just one of their last ten matches and failing to find the net in their two Champions League fixtures. Given these trends and Villa's home advantage, we expect a comfortable victory for Aston Villa in this matchup.

Champions League: Stuttgart at Juventus
Pick: Juventus ML @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Juventus enters this matchup on a high note, remaining unbeaten in their first ten games of the season, which instills a strong sense of confidence within the squad. The Bianconeri kicked off their Champions League campaign with a convincing 3-1 victory over PSV Eindhoven, followed by a thrilling 3-2 win against RB Leipzig in their second match. Currently, they sit five points clear of a struggling Stuttgart team.

Stuttgart has had a rough start in the tournament, losing 3-1 to Real Madrid and drawing 1-1 against Sparta Prague. Their recent form took a further hit with a disheartening 4-0 defeat to Bayern Munich, leaving them winless in their last four matches across all competitions.

With Juventus boasting a potent attack that has netted 11 goals in their last six games—including that emphatic performance against PSV—and a formidable defense that has conceded just one goal in eight Serie A matches, we expect them to pile more misery on Stuttgart.

Given the quality disparity, Juventus is well-positioned to secure all three points, and this money line at even money is too good to pass up. Expect the Bianconeri to not only win but potentially do so by multiple goals.

Champions League: Borussia Dortmund at Real Madrid
Pick: Under 3.5 / Wager: 2%

In a highly anticipated rematch of the 2023-2024 Champions League final, Spanish giants Real Madrid host the surprisingly formidable Borussia Dortmund. With the addition of world-class talent Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid is eager to bolster their already impressive trophy collection.

Despite the attacking prowess of both teams, we anticipate a cautious approach from each side. Neither club will want to concede the first goal, especially as they aim to secure top spots in their group. This matchup is likely to be low-scoring and strategic, with both teams historically taking their time to settle into the game.

While we typically favor betting on goals, the circumstances suggest a more defensive battle, making the under an appealing option for this clash. Expect a tight contest where both sides may play it safe, leading to fewer chances and a total that stays below 3.5 goals.

Champions League: Sporting CP at SK Sturm Graz
Pick: Sporting CP -1.5 / Wager: 2%

Let’s keep it simple: Sporting CP should dominate SK Sturm Graz in this matchup. While Sturm Graz currently sits atop the Austrian league, even besting the traditional powerhouses like RB Salzburg, their Champions League form has been underwhelming. Their defense has been shaky, and they’ve already dropped points against lesser teams like Club Brugge and Brest.

In contrast, Sporting is tearing through their domestic league and looks poised for success in Europe. With the talented Viktor Gyokeres leading the charge, we fully expect Sporting to secure a victory by at least two goals. If this match were to end closer to a 5-1 scoreline, we wouldn’t be surprised at all. This is a solid spot for Sporting to showcase their quality and assert dominance on the road.

NHL: New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens
Pick: Rangers -1.5 @ +125 / Wager: 3%

Riding the Rangers on the Puck Line feels like a no-brainer right now. Aside from a wild 6-5 OT loss to Utah, they've been on fire, outscoring their opponents 19-4 in four of their five victories. With 12 different players finding the net already, the offense is firing on all cylinders, and Artemi Panarin is making an early case for the Hart Trophy with 12 points in just five games.

Igor Shesterkin has been solid between the pipes, posting a 1.97 GAA despite the slip-up against Utah. On the flip side, the Canadiens are struggling to find their rhythm, suffering four losses in their last five outings and getting outscored 14-7 during their current three-game slump. It’s hard to see Montreal turning things around against a Rangers squad that’s clicking. We’re backing New York to take care of business tonight.

NHL: Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders
Pick: Under 6.5 / Wager: 3%

When looking at the offensive output from both teams, it’s clear that a total of 6.5 goals feels a bit too high. Detroit is averaging 2.80 goals per game, while New York is slightly lower at 2.60. That simply doesn’t add up to 6.5, folks.

Isles goaltender Ilya Sorokin, who has had a solid bounce-back season, currently boasts a stellar 1.48 GAA and a .953 save percentage. While he used to be a go-to pick for the Under, this year has been a different story—until now. New York will also be missing key forward Anthony Duclair (2G, 1A), which will further hinder their offensive efforts.

The Red Wings have managed to score more than three goals only once this season, making it hard to envision a high-scoring affair tonight. We’re betting on the Under to hit in this matchup.