Another Winning Night Builds Momentum: Bowl Games, NCAAB, NBA & NHL

Last Night’s Momentum – The Turnaround We Needed:
Another winning night is in the books, with a 6-2 performance that’s bringing us closer to that coveted 100% mark. Over the past two nights, we’re 12-5, and this momentum is exactly what we needed to propel us forward. If you’ve been with BrownBagBets all season long, you know this isn’t luck—it’s strategy, discipline, and adjustment.

We’ve said it before: we don’t lose over a full month. Sure, we hit bumps, but when things go sideways, we adjust, study harder, and come back stronger. That’s why we’ve won 75% of the months in 2024—some of them by as much as 200% of our starting bankroll.

BrownBagBets Always Bounces Back:
This is who we are, and this is what we do. When the heat’s on, we lean into our system, trusting the advanced indicators and intelligence that separate us from the crowd. Volume betting isn’t about perfection in the short term; it’s about consistency, resilience, and adaptability.

Every play we post is calculated, every adjustment deliberate, and every win another step toward our long-term goals. Whether we’re building back from a slow start or coasting on early momentum, the process always works.

Tonight’s Slate – Opportunities Abound:
Tonight is packed with action across the board:

• New Orleans Bowl:
  Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston State promises intrigue and potential value as the college bowl season continues to heat up.

• 20+ NCAAB Games:
  College basketball continues to be a cornerstone of December, and tonight’s slate is full of games to dissect and exploit.

• NBA & NHL:
  Both leagues feature massive slates that provide plenty of opportunities to identify strong plays, whether through totals, sides, or player props.

Final Thought – Trust the Process:
Winning two nights in a row isn’t just luck; it’s the result of sticking to the process and making smart adjustments. December hasn’t been easy, but we’re turning the corner, and every win builds us closer to another successful month. Whether you’re betting the New Orleans Bowl, diving into NCAAB, or leaning into NBA and NHL action, remember: we’re here to teach, to win, and to build something bigger than just a single day. Let’s keep it rolling.

NFL: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Broncos +2.5 @ +100 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Under 41.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This AFC West showdown sets up as a defensive battle, with both offenses facing significant hurdles. For the Chargers, Justin Herbert continues to deal with a lingering ankle injury, hampering his mobility and overall effectiveness. Facing a Denver defense that ranks 3rd in sack rate (8.78%) and excels at applying QB pressure, Herbert will be hard-pressed to create explosive plays, particularly with Patrick Surtain anchoring a formidable secondary. The Chargers have struggled offensively, managing just 17 points in each of their last three games, a sign of a unit hitting a wall.

On the other side, Denver’s offense, led by Bo Nix, could also face difficulties. The Chargers' Cover 4-heavy scheme will limit deep shots, a concept against which Nix has struggled. Additionally, the Broncos’ run game is hindered by the absence of RB2 Jaleel McLaughlin, leaving the already inefficient ground attack even more depleted.

The first meeting between these teams ended 23-16 in favor of the Chargers, but that game saw Surtain leave early, opening opportunities for the Chargers’ offense. With Surtain back in action, expect Denver’s defense to better contain Herbert and his weapons. Meanwhile, Denver’s recent ability to win tight games, coupled with a strong 10-2 ATS run, signals a team finding ways to overachieve in clutch moments.

Indicators:

• QB Struggles: Herbert’s injury limits the Chargers’ offensive upside; Nix’s issues against Cover 4 will hinder Denver.

• Defensive Strength: Denver’s pass rush and Surtain’s presence should neutralize Herbert’s passing game.

• Offensive Inefficiency: Both teams are struggling to score consistently, evidenced by the Chargers’ six losses averaging just 15 ppg.

• Trends: Denver’s strong ATS performance (10-2 run) makes them an appealing underdog, and the under is supported by both teams’ defensive prowess.

Projection:

Expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out game dominated by defensive units. Denver’s knack for finding ways to win tight games and the Chargers’ offensive struggles make the Broncos a solid underdog play. Final score projection: Broncos 20, Chargers 17.

NCAAF - New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston State

Pick: Georgia Southern -4 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Sun Belt Conference has proven to be a reliable performer in bowl season, with recent wins and covers by James Madison and South Alabama, even with backup quarterbacks leading the charge. Georgia Southern enters this game as the more polished and consistent program, with a potent offensive attack that thrives on exploiting defensive vulnerabilities.

Sam Houston State’s turnaround season, highlighted by an epic 21-point comeback over Texas State, has been one of the more heartening stories of 2024. However, their struggles against teams of comparable or greater talent reveal limitations, especially on defense. The Bearkats’ lack of depth and susceptibility to big plays make them a challenging underdog to back in this spot.

Georgia Southern’s high-octane offense, led by a disciplined quarterback and a dynamic receiving corps, is well-positioned to exploit Sam Houston’s defensive cracks. The Eagles’ experience in bowl games and superior level of competition throughout the season should be enough to secure the win and cover.

Indicators:

• Conference Strength: The Sun Belt continues to outperform expectations in bowl season, showcasing depth and adaptability.

• Offensive Firepower: Georgia Southern’s passing game is a significant advantage against a Bearkats defense that has struggled in high-pressure situations.

• Sam Houston’s Inconsistencies: While resilient, the Bearkats have faltered against even-level or superior competition, exposing weaknesses that Georgia Southern can exploit.

Projection:

Georgia Southern’s balanced offense and bowl experience prove too much for Sam Houston State to handle. The Eagles pull away in the second half for a comfortable cover. Final score projection: Georgia Southern 31, Sam Houston State 21.

NCAAB: UC Irvine at Belmont

Pick: Belmont +2.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

UC Irvine has had an impressive start at 9-1, but cracks in their armor have emerged recently, particularly in a 67-55 loss at Oregon State. That defeat highlighted some of the Anteaters’ key weaknesses, including struggles on the boards (out-rebounded 37-27) and inefficiency from the field (just 37% shooting). While the Anteaters' early success cannot be overlooked, their recent form suggests they may be vulnerable heading into this road matchup.

Belmont is riding a five-game win streak, bolstered by a balanced offense featuring five double-digit scorers. The Bruins are led by Memphis transfer Jonathan Pierre, who dropped 28 points in a win over Richmond last weekend. Belmont’s ability to spread the scoring load and their home-court advantage make them a formidable opponent, arguably tougher than any team UC Irvine has faced so far this season.

The Central Time Zone has been unkind to western teams like Cal Baptist, Grand Canyon, and San Francisco this week, and the Anteaters could face similar difficulties against a well-rounded Belmont squad.

Indicators:

• Recent Form: Belmont is on a roll, winning five straight games, while UC Irvine has shown vulnerability in its most recent outings.

• Home Court: Belmont thrives at home and presents a different level of challenge than what UC Irvine has encountered to date.

• Offensive Balance: With five players averaging double figures, Belmont’s balanced attack is tough to defend, especially for a UCI team that just struggled with Oregon State's physicality.

Projection:

Belmont leverages its home-court advantage and balanced offense to outlast a UC Irvine team showing signs of fatigue. Final score projection: Belmont 72, UC Irvine 68.

NCAAB: Tennessee Tech at Lindenwood

Pick: Tennessee Tech +2.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup in Ohio Valley conference play pits two struggling teams against each other, with Tennessee Tech looking to snap a four-game skid. While their recent form has been disappointing, the Golden Eagles have shown resilience on the road in conference play, evidenced by two conference road wins last season, including one against Lindenwood.

Sharp betting movement toward Tennessee Tech signals confidence in their ability to rebound here. Despite their struggles, Tennessee Tech has the tools to compete against a Lindenwood team that hasn't demonstrated a significant advantage this season. The familiarity of facing Lindenwood—whom Tennessee Tech defeated last year—adds to the appeal of backing the slight underdog.

Indicators:

• Sharp Money: A clear shift in betting momentum aligns with Tennessee Tech, signaling confidence among sharper bettors.

• Conference History: Tennessee Tech notched two conference road wins last year, including one against Lindenwood, showcasing their ability to deliver in similar spots.

• Motivation Factor: On a four-game losing streak, Tennessee Tech enters this game with urgency, making it a prime spot for a bounce-back performance.

Projection:

Expect Tennessee Tech to play with renewed focus, using their experience and conference familiarity to outlast Lindenwood. Final score projection: Tennessee Tech 67, Lindenwood 63.

NCAAB: Tennessee State at University of Southern Indiana

Pick: Southern Indiana ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Ohio Valley Conference opener features a matchup favoring the Screaming Eagles of Southern Indiana, who are ranked roughly 50 spots higher than Tennessee State in KenPom. Southern Indiana has been dominant at home this season, boasting a +21.2 scoring margin and shooting over 10% better than opponents. This offensive efficiency is spearheaded by two of the OVC's top 10 scorers, Jayland Randall and Stephen Olowoniyi, both of whom are capable of taking over games.

Tennessee State, while respectable, has struggled against higher-caliber teams this season, and facing a well-balanced Southern Indiana squad on the road adds another layer of difficulty. Southern Indiana’s ability to control tempo and dominate on both ends of the floor at home makes them a strong pick for this matchup.

Indicators:

• KenPom Edge: Southern Indiana is ranked 50 spots higher, showcasing their overall superior efficiency metrics.

• Home Dominance: USI averages 88.6 points per game at home, with a +21.2 scoring margin and significant shooting advantages.

• Offensive Firepower: Two top-10 OVC scorers in Randall and Olowoniyi give USI the tools to dictate the game offensively.

Projection:

Southern Indiana continues their home dominance, leveraging their balanced attack and shooting efficiency to secure a comfortable victory. Final score projection: Southern Indiana 83, Tennessee State 74.

NBA: New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves

Pick: Timberwolves ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup brings intrigue with Karl-Anthony Towns (KAT) facing his former team, adding a layer of motivation for the Timberwolves. Both teams come into this game well-rested, which should lead to a highly competitive contest. While the Wolves have had mixed results against the spread at home (8-4), their ability to secure outright wins in their own arena has remained steady. The Knicks, meanwhile, have struggled in certain Western Conference road games this season, suffering multiple blowout losses.

Minnesota’s home-court advantage, along with the added edge of a motivated Towns, should be enough to edge out a New York team that has shown inconsistency on the road. Even if KAT tries to do too much, Minnesota’s overall team play has been strong enough to secure victories at home.

Indicators:

• Home Success: Timberwolves are 8-4 straight up at home this season.

• Motivation Factor: Karl-Anthony Towns’ opportunity for a revenge game against his former team.

• Knicks' Struggles: Three blowout losses to Western Conference teams already this season suggest vulnerability on the road.

Projection:

Expect a tightly contested game, but the Timberwolves should leverage their home-court advantage and KAT's added motivation to squeak out a win. Final score projection: Timberwolves 111, Knicks 108.

NHL: New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets

Pick: Blue Jackets +1.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The New Jersey Devils are a formidable team, but tonight they are starting backup goalie Jake Allen, who has struggled recently with two consecutive losses in net and being heavily shelled in those outings. This opens the door for a scrappy Columbus team that has been excellent against the spread at home, covering in 10 of 15 contests this season.

The Blue Jackets’ power play has been clicking, scoring in five of their past six games, which will help them stay competitive in this matchup. Additionally, defenseman Zach Werenski is in fine form, tallying 21 points over his last 17 games, making him a key playmaker on both ends of the ice. With Allen in net for the Devils, the +1.5 line for Columbus provides strong value.

While our model even projects Columbus as a potential outright winner, this wager capitalizes on the value of keeping it close, especially on home ice.

Indicators:

• Backup Goalie Factor: Jake Allen is struggling and has lost his last two outings.

• Home ATS Record: Columbus is 10-5 ATS at home this season.

• Power Play Effectiveness: Blue Jackets have scored on the power play in five of their past six games.

• Player Impact: Zach Werenski’s 21 points in 17 games highlight his playmaking and offensive contributions.

Projection:

The Devils should still be competitive, but the Blue Jackets have enough offensive momentum and a strong home ATS record to stay within a goal. Final score projection: Devils 4, Blue Jackets 3.

NHL: Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers

Pick: Oilers ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Boston Bruins are undoubtedly a formidable team, but this matchup presents a challenging spot for them as they conclude a five-game road trip across Canada and Seattle. Fatigue and travel can take a toll, especially against a hungry Edmonton Oilers team looking to rebound after a frustrating loss to Florida on Monday.

The Oilers squandered a two-goal lead against the Panthers, snapping their season-high five-game winning streak. That loss should serve as motivation, especially considering it was their first regulation defeat when scoring five or more goals since the start of the 2023-24 season (26-1-1 in such situations).

Edmonton's ability to capitalize on opponents' defensive lapses and their stellar record (18-3-1) when allowing three or fewer goals gives them an edge, particularly with Boston having been limited to three or fewer goals twice on this trip already. The Oilers’ top-tier offensive talent, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, can exploit any signs of road-weary play from the Bruins.

Indicators:

• Travel Impact: Boston concludes a long, grueling five-game road trip.

• Motivated Home Team: Edmonton is coming off a tough loss and is 18-3-1 when allowing three or fewer goals this season.

• Scoring Potential: The Oilers’ high-powered offense thrives at home and should pose problems for Boston.

• Opponent Fatigue: The Bruins have already been held to three or fewer goals twice on this road trip, suggesting some offensive stagnation.

Projection:

Expect a competitive game with Edmonton using their offensive firepower and home-ice advantage to edge out the Bruins. Final score projection: Oilers 4, Bruins 2.