NCAA Football Success and NFL Sunday Ready to Roll

Yesterday was a massive winning day for BrownBagBets as we finally hit our stride in NCAA Football, going 7-3 and cashing in on several upset moneyline plays. It feels great to see our hard work paying off, especially as we’ve started to identify the right indicators for this season, recognizing how Vegas is setting the lines. The momentum is on our side.

Today, we’re heading into a huge day of NFL betting, sitting right at 100% of our starting bankroll. If you’ve been with us all month, you’ll know how impressive this is given where we were just a couple of weeks ago. But this is what we do—we drop, we come back. We learn, adjust, and set a goal to win the month and create passive income for our community.

NFL Sunday: Big Slate, Big Plays

Today, we’re excited to apply our updated NFL approach to what is shaping up to be a big slate of games. We’re seeing some key opportunities across several matchups and are ready to take advantage. Huge tier credits are coming your way because we’ve got a lot of plays we like.

However, the team is still digging in and fine-tuning the picks, so make sure to check back before the 4 PM games to get the most updated version of today’s plays. We’re always working to ensure you have the best possible information to bet smartly and maximize your returns.

Let’s Get Today Going!

At BrownBagBets, we’re driven by the same philosophy every day—learn, adapt, and execute. Yesterday was a major win, but today is another opportunity to grow and build on that success. Let’s attack today’s slate with confidence and discipline. Let’s get after it and win the month!

MLB - National League Championship: New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: Mets +1.5 / Wager: 4%

Mets Continue Their Ascent:

We didn’t envision this scenario back in June, but the Mets have been on an impressive rise over the past four months and show no signs of slowing down. As they face off against the Dodgers, it’s important to note the contrasting trajectories of the two teams. The Dodgers’ pitching staff returned to form just in time for the NLDS against the Padres, but they benefited from San Diego’s strategy of pulling every pitch to hit homers, which played into LA’s hands.

Kodai Senga’s Potential:

Kodai Senga, who has only pitched once in the last 2.5 months, was back on the mound in the previous round against the Phillies, where he delivered two fairly clean innings. The Mets are optimistic about their bats against Jack Flaherty, who has struggled late in the season, posting a 6.52 ERA across his last four starts. The opening line for the Mets was around +140, but it’s now moved down to +130, which diminishes the value on the moneyline. With the Mets’ erratic bullpen, we prefer to focus on their offense for this matchup.

Targeting Flaherty’s Weakness:

In their previous matchup, both Senga and David Peterson pitched in Game 1 of the NLDS, but their inconsistency raises concerns against one of the top lineups in baseball. The Mets’ offense is strikingly similar to that of the Padres, particularly in their ability to crush fastballs and sliders, which make up over 65% of Flaherty’s pitch selection.

Exploiting Right-Handed Hitting:

The Mets have the opportunity to stack seven right-handed hitters against Flaherty, which is crucial. In September, Flaherty allowed a .343 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and a 43% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters. This gives the Mets a significant advantage, allowing them to capitalize on Flaherty’s struggles.

NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears

Pick: Bears ML @ +110 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Under 44.5 / Wager: 2%

Struggles of the Jaguars Offense:

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense has faced significant challenges this season, showing flashes only against the Colts, a team they consistently dominate at home. This matchup features two teams with a combined record of 6-4 to the under. The Jaguars have played six consecutive unders in London, averaging just 37.8 points per game, and this trend may continue.

Bears’ Defense and Running Game:

While the Bears’ defense has been solid across the board, they struggle against the run, but the Jaguars have been unable to establish a strong ground game. With four of the Bears’ games finishing under the total and three of the Jaguars’ games doing the same, this matchup looks to be tightly contested.

Historical Context and Game Environment:

Trevor Lawrence has a history of hitting the under against NFC opponents, boasting a 9-5 record in such matchups, with games averaging a total close to 45.5 points. London games have shown a strong tendency to go under since 2019, with a record of 20-8 and an average of 40 points scored.

Public Sentiment and Market Movement:

Despite public support for the Bears in this spot, the betting market has shifted toward the Jaguars, reflecting a change in sentiment.

NFL: Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Ravens -6.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Over 51.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Derrick Henry Over 84.5 Yards / Wager: 3%

Derrick Henry’s Consistency:

Derrick Henry has been a force on the ground, surpassing 84 rushing yards in four straight games, even needing a dramatic 51-yard run in overtime last week to maintain that streak. Despite a modest 15 carries in that game, which is lower than his usual workload, Henry’s talent cannot be overlooked. The Commanders’ run defense is one of the worst in the league, allowing 5.3 yards per carry and failing to contain opposing running backs. With 45.5% of runs yielding five or more yards and 20.9% yielding ten or more, Henry is primed for a big day.

Ravens’ Offensive Firepower:

The Baltimore Ravens are emerging as one of the league’s elite teams, boasting a top-tier offense that averages 6.8 yards per play, which is the best in the NFL. The Commanders face a significant challenge, as their defense will likely be overwhelmed by the Ravens’ dynamic running and passing game. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level, leading the Ravens to score 28 points or more in three consecutive games.

Challenges for the Commanders:

Jayden Daniels, the Commanders’ quarterback, is set to face a tough Ravens defense that excels against the run. With the Ravens focusing on limiting the run game, the pressure will be on Daniels to perform as a passer. While he has had success against weaker defenses, he struggled against a competent Browns unit last week.

Game Total Insights:

Both teams have been productive offensively, with Ravens games averaging 57 points per game (first in the league) and the Commanders’ games averaging 54 points (third). The teams have a combined record of 8-2 to the over this season. However, the Ravens’ secondary is dealing with significant issues, particularly under a rookie defensive coordinator, which could play into the hands of Washington’s offense. Expect a high-scoring affair as both teams aim to exploit defensive weaknesses.

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Pick: Under 42 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Baker Mayfield over 1.5 TDs @ +110 / Wager: 2%

Defensive Showdown Expected:

The Saints are facing significant struggles, and this game is set up for a defensive battle. With rookie QB Spencer Rattler under center for New Orleans, he’ll contend with a blitz-heavy scheme from Bucs coach Todd Bowles. Tampa Bay’s defense is expected to apply pressure, making it difficult for Rattler to find rhythm. Meanwhile, the Saints will likely rely heavily on their run game to take some of the pressure off their young quarterback.

Baker Mayfield’s Touchdown Potential:

Despite the defensive concerns, Baker Mayfield has shown the ability to find the end zone. He’s tossed two or more touchdowns in three games this season and had five touchdowns in two matchups against the Saints last year. With 11 touchdowns already this season, Mayfield has demonstrated the capability to produce in this matchup. He’s also thrown two or more touchdowns in four of his last five home games and five of the last seven overall. While the Saints boast a top-ranked red zone defense, the Buccaneers can score on explosive plays from outside the zone, and Mayfield has a plethora of weapons at his disposal.

Injury Impact on the Bucs:

Tampa Bay may be without RB Rachaad White, which could force them to rely on rookie RB Bucky Irving to establish the run game. This situation, combined with the hurricane’s impact on their schedule, could contribute to a sluggish start for the Buccaneers. Overall, with the potential for solid defensive play and both offenses facing challenges, it’s hard to envision a high-scoring game in this divisional clash.

NFL: Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Pick: Under 38.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Texans -7 / Wager: 2%

Rookie Quarterback Concerns:
When facing a rookie quarterback in his first start, it's often wise to bet against him. The Patriots appear to be leaning toward Drake Maye, who is stepping into a challenging situation against a Texans defense currently ranked fourth. With limited support on offense—something former starter Jacoby Brissett can attest to—Maye will likely struggle. New England's offense has been dismal, averaging a league-low 12.4 points per game.

Texans' Confidence and Patriots' Struggles:
The Texans come into this game with renewed confidence after an impressive victory over Buffalo. While the Patriots have a poor home record of 1-11-2 against the spread in their last 14 home games, we might consider the Texans if the line drops to -6.5. The Patriots have also been trending toward the under, going 11-5 in their last 16 home games and scoring only 73 points during their current seven-game home losing streak.

Scoring Challenges for New England:
The Patriots' ongoing quarterback controversy and locker room dissent have contributed to their struggles, averaging just 12 points per game this season. They've already had three games this season with totals under 27 points. Historically, games set at such a low total trend to go under more than 70% of the time. The Texans, while solid defensively, have also shown inefficiencies on offense when playing on the road and outdoors, further supporting the under.

NFL: Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Over 42.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Saquon Barkley over 84.5 yards rushing / Wager: 2%

Eagles Offense Poised for Success:

The Eagles are set to have their complete offense back for this matchup against a Browns defense that has struggled significantly, particularly on the road. Cleveland’s run defense has been porous, allowing 5 yards per carry, ranking them 29th in the NFL. The return of starting tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills provides a boost to the Browns’ offensive upside, potentially opening up scoring opportunities against a Philadelphia defense that allows six yards per play and has shown vulnerabilities in key metrics.

Barkley Set for a Big Game:

Saquon Barkley is primed for a strong performance coming off a bye week. He’s averaging 6 yards per carry and is likely to see plenty of touches as the Eagles aim to establish their ground game. With the Browns’ defense giving up significant rushing yards and the Eagles looking to exert their physicality, Barkley is in a favorable position to exceed his rushing total.

Potential for High Scoring:

While the Eagles are expected to dominate, the Browns should also contribute to the scoring. With both teams having key offensive pieces and Cleveland’s tackles back in action, we see potential for an over in this matchup. A scoreline like 30-13 in favor of the Eagles could be plausible, but the Browns should find ways to get points on the board as well. Overall, the conditions are ripe for a high-scoring affair.

NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Pick: Titans ML / Wager: 2%

Titans Look to Capitalize on Colts’ Defensive Struggles:

The Colts are coming off a rough outing against Jacksonville, surrendering 419 yards on their last 42 plays—an alarming average of nearly 10 yards per play. This presents a prime opportunity for a Titans offense looking to bounce back. Will Levis has had the bye week to reset and heal his injured shoulder, and if he’s unable to play, we have confidence in Mason Rudolph’s ability to exploit Indy’s weaknesses.

Colts Defense Faces Tough Test:

The Colts’ defense, already decimated by injuries, will be on the field for the second consecutive week after being stretched thin against the Jaguars. They played 69 defensive snaps last week, and the prospect of facing the Titans at home—especially after their recent struggles—could be daunting. Despite some recent absences possibly returning, the Colts’ defense has not proven to be reliable.

Offensive Concerns for the Colts:

While Anthony Richardson’s return could provide a spark for the Colts, it’s worth noting that the offense performed adequately with Joe Flacco in his absence. The unit may not see a drastic improvement, making it challenging to capitalize against a Titans team eager to assert dominance after their bye week.

Titans’ Strong History After Bye:

The Titans have a solid track record, winning eight straight games outright following a bye. While the coaching staff may have changed, the veteran players know how to prepare effectively after a break in the schedule. This experience could play a critical role in their performance against a struggling Colts team.

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Pick: Chargers ML / Wager: 2%

Chargers Look to Capitalize on Broncos' Ground Struggles:
The Broncos currently rank 21st in the league with an average of 4.1 yards per carry, which indicates a tough matchup against a Chargers defense that has made significant strides this season, ranking fourth in EPA per rush. This defensive improvement is a major factor, especially considering the Broncos’ reliance on their ground game.

Broncos Riding High, but Reality Check Awaits:
While Denver is on a three-game winning streak, it’s important to remember the close call they faced against the struggling Raiders, where they nearly fell behind by two touchdowns until Gardner Minshew's costly pick-six. This highlights that the Broncos are not invincible, and the upcoming matchup against the Chargers will present a much greater challenge.

Chargers Fresh Off a Bye:
The Chargers are coming off a bye week, which gives them time to regroup and prepare. A healthier Justin Herbert will lead the charge, with key players like Joe Alt expected to return to the lineup. This added depth and recovery time should allow the Chargers to be more competitive after a rough two-game skid.

Preparing to Limit Nix's Impact:
With any rookie quarterback, including Bo Nix, there are inevitable ups and downs. The Chargers are likely to have a game plan in place to limit Nix's effectiveness, allowing them to take control of the game. This preparation will be crucial for the Chargers as they seek to capitalize on the Broncos' vulnerabilities.

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Steelers -2.5 / Wager: 3%

Steelers Look to Capitalize on Raiders' QB Change:
The Raiders are turning to Aidan O'Connell in hopes of injecting some offensive spark, but they are losing the mobility that Gardner Minshew provided. O'Connell will face a formidable challenge against the Steelers’ pass rush, and expecting him to perform flawlessly against a pressure-heavy defense for four quarters seems unrealistic.

Offensive Struggles for the Raiders:
The Raiders have had a sluggish offense this season, struggling with inconsistency in the running game. Additionally, the ongoing saga surrounding Davante Adams has further complicated matters, as he remains out of the lineup with no resolution in sight. This lack of offensive cohesion will make it difficult for O'Connell to find his rhythm.

Steelers Defense Continues to Impress:
Despite the Steelers suffering two tough losses recently, Mike Tomlin's defense remains a reliable force. The unit has shown up week in and week out, maintaining a high level of performance even in challenging situations. Pittsburgh's defense will look to exploit the Raiders' struggles, especially with a rookie quarterback at the helm.

Recent History Favors the Steelers:
Pittsburgh has won against the Raiders in both of the past two seasons, and with their current defensive capabilities, they are well-positioned to extend that streak. The combination of a struggling Raiders offense and a resilient Steelers defense gives Pittsburgh the advantage in this matchup.

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Over 46.5 / Wager: 4%
Pick: Bijan Robinson over 66.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 2%

Falcons Offense Poised for a Big Game:
After scoring four offensive touchdowns in an overtime victory and racking up 550 yards in Week 5, the Falcons are entering a favorable matchup against the struggling Carolina defense. With their ability to move the ball effectively, we expect Atlanta to continue their scoring spree and put up significant points again.

Carolina’s Defense Struggles to Contain Offenses:
The Panthers have consistently struggled defensively, particularly against high-scoring offenses. Despite their earlier shortcomings against the Bengals, they should be able to keep pace at home against the Falcons, who rank last in the league in allowing scoring drives. With both teams likely to find the end zone, we anticipate a game that easily surpasses 50 points.

Bijan Robinson: A Key Playmaker:
Bijan Robinson has cleared 66.5 rushing yards only once this season, but the circumstances are ripe for a breakout game. Coming off extra rest and facing a vulnerable Carolina defense, he has the opportunity to shine. Notably, 82% of Robinson's rushes have occurred in zone run schemes, which is where the Panthers have struggled, allowing 4.8 yards per carry against such concepts.

Volume and Explosiveness Work in His Favor:
As 6-point favorites, the Falcons are likely to lean on the run game, especially in the fourth quarter. Robinson's explosiveness, illustrated by his ability to gain chunk plays, positions him well to surpass this prop total. With Carolina ranked last in Run Stop Win Rate, we expect Robinson to have no trouble finding running lanes and achieving significant yardage.