NFL Resurgence & MLB Playoffs Tonight

A Lesson in Resilience and Long-Term Success

At BrownBagBets, our philosophy isn’t just about short-term wins—it’s about the long-term pursuit of passive monthly income. If you’ve been with us since the start of October, you’ll know the journey hasn’t been all smooth sailing. Early in the month, we were down 12% of our starting bankroll. But we don’t panic, and we don’t chase losses. Instead, we learn from our results, adjust our approach, and trust in our strategy.

That’s why BrownBagBets continues to bounce back. It’s not just luck—it’s resilience, sticking to the plan, and applying critical analysis. After yesterday’s winning NFL day, we now sit at 102% of our starting bankroll, firmly in passive income territory. Our Week 6 NFL betting record stands at 14-8, with a strong 8% gain on our bankroll—what a rebound! This turnaround didn’t happen overnight. We spent countless hours reviewing our NFL plays, analyzing line movement, assessing personnel issues, and accounting for injuries.

The BrownBagBets Approach: Learn, Adjust, Win

Our success story in October teaches an important lesson in sports betting: nothing is won until the month is over. We’re only halfway through October, and while we’ve made progress, nothing is accomplished yet. This is the heart of BrownBagBets’ philosophy. We don’t just bet; we educate our community on how to win the month, turning losses into learning opportunities and constantly refining our approach—all for free.

Tonight’s Slate: MLB Playoffs, Monday Night Football, and NHL

As we look to tonight, our team is locked in on some high-profile sports matchups. Here’s what we’re focused on:

MLB Playoffs:

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series. The Dodgers dominated Game 1 with a 9-0 victory, continuing their scoreless innings streak to 33. Can the Mets bounce back, or will the Dodgers extend their control of the series?

Over in the American League Championship Series, Game 1 kicks off tonight with the Cleveland Guardians facing the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. We’re watching this closely as Alex Cobb and Carlos Rodon take the mound for what promises to be a thrilling pitching duel.

Monday Night Football:

The Buffalo Bills (3-2) and New York Jets (2-3) square off in an exciting matchup. The Bills are favored by 1 point, and after a couple of tough losses, all eyes are on Josh Allen to see if he can turn things around. Meanwhile, the Jets, after firing head coach Robert Saleh, are hoping for a rebound under Aaron Rodgers, who has struggled to find his rhythm this season.

NHL Action:

With three hockey games on the late schedule, we may have some plays here as well. Keep an eye out for possible NHL picks as we assess the opportunities.

Keep Learning, Keep Winning

Our community knows that BrownBagBets isn’t just about handing out picks—it’s about teaching our followers how to think critically, analyze their results, and make adjustments in pursuit of long-term success. This is how we build passive income, and this is why our system works. As always, stay tuned for updates on today’s plays, and make sure to check back before the later games to ensure you’re up to date with the latest insights.

Let’s keep the momentum going tonight and set ourselves up for continued success through the rest of October!

MLB - National League Championship Series: New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: Under 8.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Mets ML / Wager: 2%

Dodgers’ Bullpen Dominance:

The Dodgers are currently riding an impressive streak of 33 consecutive scoreless innings, tying for the MLB playoff record. With today being a bullpen day for them, the Mets will have a tough challenge ahead, but they counter with their ace, Sean Manaea, who has posted a stellar 2.25 ERA in the playoffs. The Dodgers’ bullpen is well-rested, especially with a travel day tomorrow, giving them flexibility in their pitching strategy.

Manaea’s Strong Day Game Performance:

Sean Manaea has excelled in day games this season, recording a 2.99 ERA while limiting opponents to a .199 batting average. Facing multiple pitchers throughout the game can be tough for batters, particularly in a day game following a night game. The mild weather, with temperatures in the low 70s and calm winds, also favors a lower-scoring affair.

Historical Context:

While the Dodgers have won the last five meetings against the Mets, today’s matchup features Manaea, who has been particularly effective against them, allowing just two runs in their last two encounters. After a pivotal game-three win against the Phillies, where Manaea went seven innings and gave up only one run, he enters this game with strong momentum.

Offensive Outlook for the Mets:

Although the Dodgers have achieved three consecutive shutouts, we anticipate that streak ending today. With their best starter on the mound, the Mets should be able to capitalize and score a few runs. The combination of Manaea’s pitching prowess and the Dodgers’ bullpen could keep the game under the total, but we’re more focused on the Mets taking this matchup.

MLB - American League Championship Series: Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees

Pick: Under 7.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Yankees ML / Wager: 2%

Cleveland’s Offense on Shaky Ground:

Cleveland’s offense finally found some rhythm to close out the ALDS against the Tigers, but the question remains: can they maintain this momentum, or will they revert to their previous struggles? Throughout the season, the Guardians have had moments of offensive inconsistency, particularly evident during parts of the Detroit series. Alex Cobb will take the mound for Cleveland, and while he has a respectable 2.76 ERA over 16 1/3 innings, his limited appearances and experience might limit his effectiveness.

Rodon’s Home Dominance:

On the other side, Carlos Rodon will start for the Yankees. Despite a less-than-stellar outing in Game 2 against the Royals, Rodon showcased exceptional form in September, posting a 2.20 ERA across five starts. He has demonstrated significantly better numbers at home, which bodes well for New York’s chances today. The Yankees are also potentially welcoming back first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who missed the ALDS due to a fractured finger, providing a boost to their lineup.

Cobb’s Struggles Against Yankees:

Cobb’s track record against power hitters in the Yankees lineup, particularly Juan Soto, raises concerns. Soto has historically performed well against Cobb, making a hitting prop on him a solid consideration.

Game Flow Expectations:

Given Rodon’s home advantage and Cobb’s limited effectiveness, the expectation leans toward a lower-scoring game. The Yankees’ strong pitching and Cleveland’s inconsistent offense should contribute to keeping the total under 7.5 runs.

NFL: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Pick: Jets +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Breece Hall over 24.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%

Pick: Over 41 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Josh Allen over 33.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 2%

Jets Have the Edge:

The Jets enter this matchup with a considerable advantage in their offensive line for the run game against the Bills. With Breece Hall and Braelon Allen in the backfield, expect them to find success on the ground, which will open up the passing game for Aaron Rodgers. The Bills are dealing with injuries, especially to Khalil Shakir, which could hinder their offensive output.

Rodgers in Prime Time:

Despite the recent drama surrounding the Jets, there’s value in backing Rodgers in this high-stakes primetime game. Historically, it’s rare for a Bills game to finish with a total below 40 points this season, and with the Jets in a tough situation, they are likely to find their offensive rhythm under new offensive coordinator Todd Downing.

Buffalo’s Offensive Potential:

The Bills have the potential to be a dynamic offense with Josh Allen at the helm. The over on 41 points is a reasonable expectation, especially considering the Jets’ pressing situation. Buffalo desperately needs this win, and their offensive capabilities suggest they can score while potentially allowing points as well.

Breece Hall’s Involvement:

Breece Hall has consistently seen at least four targets per game, and against a Bills defense that is vulnerable to running backs, he should excel. The Bills allow an average of 7.2 receptions and 62.4 receiving yards per game to running backs, setting Hall up for a productive outing.

Josh Allen’s Rushing Ability:

With injuries affecting the Bills’ receiving corps, it’s critical for Allen to utilize his legs more. He has surpassed 33.5 rushing yards in five of his last seven games and has historically performed well against the Jets, averaging 36 rushing yards in all six career one-score games against them. As his left hand continues to recover, expect Allen to be aggressive in running the ball to help secure the win for the Bills.

NHL: Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers

Pick: Rangers -1 / Wager: 2%

Red Wings’ Goaltending Concerns:

After a surprising 3-0 shutout against the Predators on Friday, the Red Wings now face a significant test against the Rangers. Goalie Cam Talbot may have performed well, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that he was only in relief during the previous game after Ville Husso was pulled for allowing four goals in just 25 minutes. The inconsistency in Detroit’s goaltending could become a major issue as they head into this matchup.

Rangers’ Offensive Firepower:

The Rangers are coming off a disappointing 6-5 loss to upstart Utah in their home opener. However, Igor Shesterkin, who typically doesn’t have off nights, previously blanked the Penguins in their opening match. The Rangers have shown no difficulty finding the back of the net, scoring 11 goals across their first two games. This presents an excellent opportunity to capitalize on the Red Wings’ shaky goaltending situation.

Detroit’s Lineup Issues:

Adding to Detroit’s troubles, starting goalie Ville Husso has been waived, suggesting that Alex Lyon will likely take over. Lyon had a mediocre 3.05 GAA last year and has allowed four goals in his only start against the Rangers. Furthermore, rotation players Jeff Petry and Christian Fischer will be unavailable due to injury, further depleting the Red Wings’ lineup.

Zig-Zag Strategy:

Given the context of this Original Six matchup, this is a perfect zig-zag spot. The Rangers are favored here, and with their offensive momentum and Detroit’s goaltending issues, backing the Rangers at -1 provides better value compared to the moneyline price of -190. Expect New York to bounce back strong at home and capitalize on the Red Wings’ vulnerabilities.