A Winning Night, NHL Success, and More to Come

Last night was a lighter night in terms of volume, with just three plays, but it was a winning night nonetheless. Most notably, BrownBagBets hit its long-awaited first NHL play of the season, and just like that, we’re off and running in the world of hockey! It’s great to start strong in a new area, and we’re looking forward to what’s next as we build out our NHL betting strategy.

Today’s Slate: MLB Game 5, NCAAF Action, and NFL Prep

Today, we’ve got another high-stakes showdown in the ALDS, with a Game 5 winner-take-all between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. Expect another intense battle on the diamond, and we’ve got our play ready for this crucial game.

On the college football side, it’s a stacked slate of NCAAF games, giving us plenty of opportunities to sift through and find value. We’re lining up picks for some key matchups, and we’ll share those plays with you shortly.

And for those who are waiting for more NFL action—don’t worry. After a strong result on Thursday Night, we’re putting in the work today, fine-tuning our Sunday picks. We’ll be spending most of today in the lab, analyzing data, reviewing indicators, and ensuring we continue that momentum into the weekend.

Let’s Get It

At BrownBagBets, it’s not just about volume—it’s about finding the right plays, even on lighter days. With MLB, NCAAF, and our newly-launched NHL picks, we’re ready to keep the wins coming. Let’s make the most of this Saturday and set ourselves up for a successful weekend of betting!

MLB Divisional Series (Game 5): Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Tigers ML / Wager: 5%

Pitching Matchup Favors Detroit:
In a pivotal Game 5, the matchup features Detroit's ace Tarik Skubal against Cleveland's Matthew Boyd, a former Tiger. We firmly favor Skubal, who has been sensational lately, not allowing a run in his last three starts and just one run in his last 25 innings (0.36 ERA). His performance has been instrumental in securing victories for Detroit, making him a strong candidate in this crucial game.

Cleveland's Concerns with Boyd:
On the other hand, Boyd has had mixed results. While he was effective in his last outing, working 4 2/3 innings without allowing a run, his previous three starts saw him give up nine runs (five earned) and 15 hits across 11 innings. The Guardians might have to manage Boyd’s innings carefully, which could lead to vulnerabilities in their game plan.

Trusting the Tigers' Ace:
With Skubal's current form and dominance, we prefer backing him in this series-deciding game. The stakes are high, and his ability to maintain his stellar performance could be the key to advancing Detroit in the postseason.

NHL: Los Angeles Kings at Boston Bruins
Pick: Bruins -1.5 @ +160 / Wager: 2%

Bruins Offense Finding Its Groove:
The Boston Bruins are in the process of fine-tuning their game, but they showed significant promise in Thursday's 6-4 victory over the Canadiens. While Jeremy Swayman's first start of the season was a bit shaky, it was still enough to secure the win. More importantly, the Bruins' offense has already put up 10 goals in their first two games, with David Pastrnak making an impact by scoring in both contests.

Kings Facing a Tough Test:
On the other hand, the Los Angeles Kings needed a late surge to find the net, with Anze Kopitar scoring a hat trick in the third period against the Sabres in their season opener. However, the pressure will be much higher for new goalie Darcy Kuemper as he faces a potent Bruins offense at TD Garden.

Expectations for a Competitive Matchup:
With the Bruins looking to build momentum and the Kings dealing with a high-pressure situation, we like Boston's chances to cover the puck line in this matchup. Their offensive depth and recent scoring prowess give them an edge, especially against a Kings team that will have to step up defensively to contain the Bruins' attack.

NCAAF: South Carolina at Alabama

Pick: South Carolina ML @ +1050 / Wager: 1%

Alabama’s Recent Struggles:

Last week, Alabama suffered a surprising defeat to Vanderbilt, a team that relied heavily on the triple option and made strategic plays through its quarterback. This loss raises questions about Alabama’s defense, particularly against unconventional offensive schemes. South Carolina’s offensive approach is somewhat similar, which could present challenges for the Crimson Tide.

South Carolina’s Offensive Potential:

For South Carolina to succeed, they must establish a strong ground game, and they have the personnel to do just that. Alabama has shown vulnerabilities in stopping the run and has given up significant yardage on the ground. Quarterback Dante Sellers has the potential to replicate the success that Vanderbilt’s Byrum Brown found against Alabama earlier this season. If Sellers can effectively utilize his legs, it may open up opportunities for the Gamecocks to move the ball and score.

Third Down Conversions:

Another critical factor is Alabama’s struggle to get opponents off the field on third down. Vanderbilt converted an impressive 12 of 18 attempts against the Tide, indicating a weakness in Alabama’s defense. South Carolina ranks 21st nationally in Power Success Rate, which measures their effectiveness on short-yardage situations. This statistic suggests that the Gamecocks could capitalize on Alabama’s vulnerabilities, potentially leading to scoring opportunities.

Value in the Underdog:

While betting on South Carolina to win outright at +1050 may seem like a long shot, the recent trends and matchups indicate that it’s not as improbable as the odds suggest. Given Alabama’s defensive lapses and South Carolina’s ability to exploit them, this game could surprise many

NCAAF: Wisconsin at Rutgers

Pick: Wisconsin ML @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Wisconsin’s Recent Performance:

While Wisconsin’s recent 52-point explosion against Purdue is impressive, it’s important to view it in context. A repeat of that performance may be unrealistic, as neither team has shown the offensive capability to dominate. This matchup is likely to hinge on execution in the fourth quarter, making it a close contest.

Offensive Line Advantage:

Wisconsin’s offensive line presents a significant advantage heading into this game. The Badgers rank in the top 40 for rushing success rate, line yards, and Havoc allowed, demonstrating their ability to control the line of scrimmage effectively. In contrast, Rutgers’ defense has struggled, ranking outside the bottom 100 in these key metrics. This discrepancy could prove crucial for Wisconsin’s offensive success.

Emerging Run Game:

Running back Cade Yacamelli has been a bright spot for the Badgers, averaging an impressive 7.38 yards per carry on his limited touches. While Tawee Walker has been the primary back, Yacamelli’s success suggests he should be more integrated into the offensive game plan moving forward. This dual-threat approach could help Wisconsin keep the Rutgers defense guessing.

Rutgers’ Defensive Metrics:

Rutgers has performed well defensively, ranking inside the top 10 for defensive finishing and quality drives. However, they may struggle to contain Wisconsin’s run game, especially if the Badgers can establish their offensive line early. The ability of Wisconsin’s offensive line to create holes will be a key factor in determining the outcome of the game.

NCAAF: Washington at Iowa

Pick: Iowa -2.5 / Wager: 3%

Emotional Dynamics:

Washington enters this game after a significant home victory against Michigan, winning 27-17. However, this week presents a different challenge as they travel to face Iowa. Their only previous road game resulted in a loss to Rutgers, raising questions about their ability to perform away from home.

Iowa’s Quarterback Situation:

Cade McNamara has shown flashes of success this season, but his performance last week against Ohio State was underwhelming. Completing 14 of 20 passes for only 98 yards and one interception indicates that the Hawkeyes need more offensive production. Despite this setback, playing at home provides Iowa with a crucial advantage.

Home Field Advantage:

Iowa’s home field has historically been a challenging environment for visiting teams. The emotional imbalance, with Washington coming off a high and Iowa looking to bounce back from a loss, favors the Hawkeyes. Our assessment places Iowa at -7 at home for this matchup, indicating strong confidence in their ability to cover the spread.

Key Factors to Consider:

The combination of Iowa’s strong home performance, Washington’s struggles on the road, and the psychological factors at play all contribute to a favorable outlook for the Hawkeyes. Expect Iowa to leverage their home advantage and capitalize on Washington’s potential vulnerabilities.

NCAAF: Old Dominion at Georgia State

Pick: Georgia State ML / Wager: 3%

Defensive Struggles:

Both Old Dominion and Georgia State are struggling defensively, which creates an opportunity for offensive production. However, the current situation for Old Dominion is concerning. Starting quarterback Grant Wilson missed last week’s game against Coastal Carolina, and their No. 1 running back, Aaron Young, had limited participation due to injury. Their availability for this matchup remains uncertain.

Road Fatigue for Old Dominion:

This game marks Old Dominion’s third consecutive road game, which can be taxing on a team, particularly one dealing with key injuries. The travel and lack of home-field advantage may hinder their performance further.

Georgia State’s Preparation and Form:

Georgia State had a bye week to prepare for this matchup, giving them an edge in terms of rest and strategy. Earlier in the season, the Panthers secured a notable victory against Vanderbilt, a result that has gained more respect as the season progresses.

Key Player Insights:

Pitt transfer quarterback Christian Veilleux is showing promise for Georgia State, ranking among the Sun Belt leaders in several statistical categories. His ability to lead the offense effectively can make a significant difference in this matchup.

NCAAF: California at Pittsburgh

Pick: Pittsburgh ML / Wager: 3%

Travel Fatigue and Recent Performance:

California is facing a significant challenge traveling across the country after a disappointing home loss to Miami. This journey can be taxing, especially after their recent struggles. The Golden Bears also suffered a narrow defeat to Florida State just two weeks prior, adding to their emotional fatigue.

Pittsburgh’s Impressive Start:

Pittsburgh has exceeded expectations this season, standing at an impressive 5-0. Quarterback Eli Holstein is making history, becoming the first Pitt quarterback to win his first five career starts since Dan Marino in 1979. This speaks volumes about his ability to lead the team effectively.

Key Player Returns:

The Panthers are bolstered by the return of running back Rodney Harrison, who made a surprising appearance against North Carolina. Although he had limited impact in that game, he is expected to play a more significant role as the season progresses, providing a boost to Pittsburgh’s already potent offense.

Offensive and Defensive Edge:

Pittsburgh’s offense ranks fourth in FBS, showcasing their scoring capability. This is complemented by a solid defense that is often underrated, making them a well-rounded team. In contrast, California’s defense will need to step up significantly to compete against the high-powered Pittsburgh.

NCAAF: Cincinnati at University of Central Florida (UCF)

Pick: Cincinnati ML @ +135 / Wager: 2%

Similar Schedules and Recent Performance:

Both Cincinnati and UCF have faced comparable schedules this season, with UCF ranked just two spots higher. Cincinnati’s recent performance against Texas Tech highlights their potential, as they out-gained the Red Raiders 555-482 but fell short with a 44-41 loss on September 28th. This suggests that Cincinnati has the offensive capabilities to challenge UCF effectively.

Passing Efficiency and Defensive Struggles:

Cincinnati ranks 20th in the nation for passing yards per game and 35th in completion percentage. In contrast, UCF has struggled defensively, ranking 121st in opponent passing yards and 127th in opponent completion percentage. This discrepancy presents a significant opportunity for Cincinnati’s aerial attack to exploit UCF’s defensive weaknesses.

Motivation and Preparation:

The Bearcats faced UCF last season and narrowly lost 28-26 at home, despite out-gaining the Knights 515-393. With a two-week preparation window leading into this game, Cincinnati has had ample time to strategize and focus on reversing last year’s result. This game has been circled on their calendar, adding to their motivation.

Special Teams and Red-Zone Statistics:

Cincinnati boasts superior special teams and red-zone statistics, giving them an additional edge in crucial game situations. As UCF prepares to navigate potential weather challenges from a Hurricane leading up to the contest, the Bearcats’ focus on the game could pay dividends.

NCAAF: Louisville at Virginia

Pick: Virginia +7.5 / Wager: 2%

Injuries Impacting Louisville:

Louisville is entering this matchup with key injuries, including several starters missing from their recent loss at SMU. Notably, left tackle Monroe Mills, who was the team’s highest-graded offensive lineman according to Pro Football Focus with a score of 68.3, will not play this week. This absence will likely hinder the Cardinals’ offensive effectiveness.

Virginia’s Strong Start:

Virginia has surprised many this season, boasting a 4-1 overall record and a perfect 2-0 mark in the ACC. This strong performance includes a significant achievement: the Wahoos have not turned the ball over in back-to-back games, a feat they hadn’t accomplished since 2019. This improved ball security is crucial for maintaining offensive momentum and minimizing mistakes.

ATS Trends Favoring Virginia:

With the hook on the spread, Virginia presents solid value at +7.5. The Cavaliers have shown resilience and are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games. This trend indicates a consistent ability to keep games competitive, even against tougher opponents.

NCAAF: Texas at Oklahoma

Pick: Texas -14.5 / Wager: 3%

No QB Controversy at Texas:

Let’s kick off the Cotton Bowl with a clear picture: there’s no QB controversy at Texas. While the media might want to spin a narrative around Arch Manning’s impressive play in relief, Quinn Ewers is back as the starter and fully backed by Steve Sarkisian to continue where he left off.

Oklahoma’s QB Situation is Shaky:

Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s QB situation looks unstable. With Jackson Arnold once hailed as the future and now playing behind freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., the Sooners’ stability is questionable.

Revenge Factor for the Longhorns:

This game carries a revenge factor for the Longhorns after last year’s bitter 34-30 loss to Oklahoma. Texas has been exceptional in the red zone, ranking fourth nationally in touchdown efficiency. They’ve entered the red zone 27 times this season, converting an astonishing 24 of those trips into touchdowns with just one field goal. That’s an impressive 89% success rate, and they’re not just relying on one player; twelve different players have found the end zone for the Horns, with nine scoring at least twice.

Oklahoma’s Defense Struggles:

Oklahoma’s defense has been less than stellar. While their stats suggest a decent defense, they have allowed eight scores on just ten red-zone possessions this season. Their coverage struggles are evident, ranking outside the top 65 in Defensive Passing Success Rate. This is particularly concerning against a Texas team that’s been thriving against coverages like Cover 3, which Oklahoma employs extensively.

Ewers’ Success Against Cover 3:

Last season, Ewers shined against Cover 3, boasting a 58% success rate and generating explosive plays on one of every four passing attempts. Expect the Longhorns to exploit these defensive weaknesses, creating scoring opportunities often.

Explosive Drives Against Oklahoma:

The Sooners have also struggled against explosive drives, allowing eight of Auburn’s 12 possessions to result in at least two first downs. With Oklahoma’s offense likely to be hampered, we feel confident in taking Texas at -14.5.

NCAAF: Arizona at BYU

Pick: BYU -3 / Wager: 2%

Unbeaten BYU with Key Players Returning:

BYU enters this matchup unbeaten and fresh off a bye week, welcoming back their No. 1 RB, LJ Martin, who has been sidelined since the team’s second game. Even without a full stable of running backs, QB Jake Retzlaff has shown continuous improvement, completing 61.2% of his passes for 1,208 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. The Cougars average 6.2 points per game off turnovers, a statistic that could play a significant role as turnovers have plagued Arizona, which recorded three giveaways in last week’s loss to Texas Tech.

Arizona’s Defensive Struggles:

The Wildcats face additional challenges with injuries affecting their defense. Senior defensive backs and team captains Treydan Stukes and Gunner Maldonado were both injured against Texas Tech and are expected to miss this game, with Stukes out for the season. This lack of depth in the secondary could spell trouble against a potent BYU offense.

Aiming for a Milestone Win:

A victory in this game would mark BYU’s third conference win, surpassing last season’s total and solidifying their turnaround under head coach Kalani Sitake. Achieving a 6-0 start would be significant, as it would be the second such start in Sitake’s tenure and the sixth in school history. The Cougars have a rich history, boasting 431 wins over the past 50 seasons, tied for ninth in the nation, trailing only powerhouses like Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia.

Strong Defensive Play:

A key factor in BYU’s success this season has been their defense, which ranks inside the top 20 for both total and scoring defense, allowing just 15.7 points per game. The Cougars’ strong defensive performance has complemented their offensive capabilities, creating a balanced and formidable team.

Retzlaff’s Command of the Offense:

Retzlaff’s command of the offense has been impressive, ranking tied for 18th in the FBS with 12 passing touchdowns. With special teams contributing positively as well, Sitake’s squad is playing complementary football, which typically leads to victories.

NCAAF: Air Force at New Mexico
Pick: Air Force +6.5 / Wager: 3%

Air Force's Unique Challenge:
While the Air Force Falcons are experiencing a rare down season, they remain a triple-option team that can create significant challenges for opposing defenses. This unique offensive style often forces defenses to adjust, making it difficult to prepare effectively. Despite their struggles, Air Force’s ability to execute their scheme can disrupt New Mexico’s game plan.

New Mexico's Improved Performance:
The Lobos have shown improvements this season, but we question whether their progress justifies a near touchdown favorite status against Air Force. The gap in performance between the two teams doesn’t seem significant enough to warrant such a line.

Value on the Underdog:
Taking Air Force at +6.5 provides excellent value, especially considering their historical resilience and capability to compete against teams with a more traditional style of play. This matchup could turn into a close contest, making the points offered for Air Force particularly enticing.