Monday Night Madness: BrownBagBets Best Bets for Tonight

MLB: Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers

Impact of Pitching Changes

The Tigers’ decision to scratch Jack Flaherty and opt for a bullpen day led by Beau Briske (4.33 ERA) significantly impacts this game. Following Briske, the Tigers plan to use Bryan Sammons, a 29-year-old with a 4.17 ERA in Triple-A this year who has yet to pitch in the majors. This uncertain pitching situation gives the Guardians a notable advantage.

Guardians’ Recent Success

Guardians’ starter Tanner Bibee is coming off a recent win against Detroit, adding confidence to his performance potential in this game. Additionally, the absence of Tigers’ No. 1 shortstop Javy Baez, currently on the bereavement list, weakens Detroit’s lineup. While Baez has struggled recently, his recent power surge (three home runs in his last four games) will be missed.

Bet: Guardians ML / Wager: 4%

MLB: New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

Recent Head-to-Head Success

The Yankees have dominated recent matchups, winning four of their last five meetings with the Phillies. This success builds a psychological edge, giving them added confidence heading into this game.

Pitching Performance and Momentum

Luis Gil has regained his form, allowing just one run across his last three starts, which bodes well for the Yankees. Despite only one win in his last two starts, his overall performance has been strong. On the other hand, while Zack Wheeler has won his last three starts, the Phillies have struggled overall, losing seven of their last ten games.

Offensive Form

The Yankees’ offense has been impressive lately, particularly in their recent series against Boston, where they consistently hit the ball well. This offensive momentum is crucial as they look to continue their winning ways. Additionally, the potential return of Jazz Chisholm could provide the spark the Yankees need.

Bet: Yankees ML @ +120 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox

Pitching Matchup Concerns

Nick Pivetta, despite losing his last three starts, deserves some consideration for a mulligan. His recent disastrous outing against Colorado contrasts sharply with his previous strong performance at Dodger Stadium, where he didn’t allow any runs over six innings. This showcases his capability to bounce back from poor starts.

Mariners’ Offensive Struggles

Logan Gilbert has pitched well individually but has suffered from a lack of run support, losing three of his last four starts. This issue has plagued the Mariners for the past month, reflecting a broader team problem that impacts their ability to win games, especially on the road.

Home Field Advantage

The Red Sox have the home-field advantage, which historically plays a significant role in MLB games. The comfort and familiarity of playing at Fenway Park provide a boost for the Red Sox, making them a more reliable pick in this matchup.

Bet: Red Sox ML / Wager: 4%

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Starting Pitchers Performance

Both Jameson Taillon and Carson Spiers have had commendable performances this season. Taillon, in particular, has been solid and might be traded today, so listed pitchers are essential for this pick. Notably, the Reds haven’t faced Taillon in 2024, which could work to his advantage.

Spiers’ Previous Success

Spiers threw 5.2 shutout innings against the Cubs earlier this year, indicating his ability to handle their lineup effectively. This past performance bodes well for another low-scoring outing.

Lineup Changes and Offensive Challenges

The Cubs’ lineup tonight appears weak, especially with new third baseman Isaac Paredes yet to debut. Additionally, the Reds are without Elly De La Cruz, a significant offensive threat. These factors contribute to a potential decrease in run production.

Weather and Venue Considerations

Weather shouldn’t be a factor in Cincinnati, and without any external influences, the game is likely to remain low-scoring.

Bet: Under 9.5 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros

Skenes’ Strong Performance and Pitching Depth

Paul Skenes has been stellar, coming off his longest career start where he allowed just two runs over 8.1 innings. His last seven starts have seen him give up minimal runs but suffer from a lack of run support. In five of those games, the total runs scored were five or fewer, highlighting a trend towards low-scoring affairs when he pitches.

Bloss’ Inexperience and Recent Struggles

Jake Bloss is making only his fourth career start and comes off a rough outing against Oakland where he allowed five runs. This inexperience and recent form suggest he could be vulnerable against the Pirates, despite their offensive struggles.

Astros’ Recent Form

The Astros have lost four of their last seven games, indicating a potential slump. With Bloss on the mound, there’s an opportunity for the Pirates to capitalize and secure a win.

Low-Scoring Game Trend

Given Skenes’ ability to keep games low-scoring and the Pirates’ offensive struggles, this game is likely to stay under the 7.5 total runs. The pattern in Skenes’ starts supports this, with many games seeing minimal scoring.

Bet: Pirates ML / Wager: 4%

Bet: Under 7.5 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

Fading the White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are amidst a brutal 14-game losing streak, plummeting their record to 27-81, worse than the infamous ‘62 Mets. They’ve consistently failed to perform, making them a prime candidate for a fade.

Flexen’s Struggles

Chris Flexen, starting for the White Sox tonight, has been a liability. The team has lost his last 14 starts, underscoring his struggles on the mound and making this a favorable matchup for the Royals.

Royals’ Dominance

The Kansas City Royals have dominated the White Sox all season. In their recent sweep right out of the All-Star break, they allowed just one run per game, highlighting their pitching prowess and the White Sox’s offensive woes.

Run Line Advantage

Given the White Sox’s dire form and the Royals’ recent dominance, taking Kansas City on the run line (-1.5) at plus money presents a solid betting opportunity. This bet capitalizes on the White Sox’s inability to compete and the Royals’ effective performance against them.

Bet: Royals -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 7%