Revolutionizing MLB Betting: BrownBagBets’ HR Prop Strategy

A great night as July gets closer to the end, positioning BrownBagBets in a strong bankroll position for this month and the full year. We’re now sitting at 177% of our starting bankroll for July after last night’s 5-2 performance. As we close out the month, our team has been diligently working behind the scenes to refine our strategies and ensure we continue to deliver value to our community.

One area we’ve been focusing on is Home Run (HR) props. To date, we haven’t included them in our daily guidance, but we’ve been in the lab perfecting our approach. HR props offer significant value, and we’re excited to start mixing them into our plays very soon. Here’s a bit of insight into our process:

Key Aspects of Finding Good HR Props:

1. Player Analysis:

• We analyze players’ historical performance, looking at their HR rates, slugging percentages, and recent form. Identifying power hitters who are on a hot streak or have favorable matchups is crucial.

2. Pitcher Matchups:

• Assessing the opposing pitcher’s vulnerabilities is essential. We look at their HR rates allowed, pitch types, and how they fare against power hitters. A pitcher with a high HR/9 rate is more likely to give up home runs, making them a target for our HR props.

3. Ballpark Factors:

• Different ballparks have varying impacts on HR rates. We consider park factors, such as dimensions and altitude, to identify venues that are more conducive to home runs.

4. Weather Conditions:

• Weather plays a significant role in baseball. Wind direction and speed, temperature, and humidity can all influence the likelihood of home runs. We incorporate this data into our analysis to increase the accuracy of our picks.

5. Lineup Position and Opponent Quality:

• A player’s position in the lineup can affect their chances of hitting a home run. We also consider the overall quality of the opposing team’s defense and bullpen, which can impact the game dynamics.

At BrownBagBets, we believe in transparency and sharing our thought process with our community. Our approach isn’t just about picking winners; it’s about understanding the game and making informed decisions based on comprehensive analysis.

As we look to today, a Sunday matinee filled with MLB options awaits. We’re confident in our picks and ready to continue our winning streak. Let’s get this bag!

Home Run Props for Today

Yordan Alvarez HR @ +300 / Wager: 1%

Power Hitting Consistency:

Yordan Alvarez has consistently demonstrated his power-hitting prowess this season, smashing 31 home runs and averaging one every 12.8 at-bats. His .587 slugging percentage places him among the league’s top power hitters.

Favorable Matchup:

Alvarez faces Kyle Hendricks today, against whom he boasts a career batting average of .375 and a slugging percentage of .750 over 16 at-bats, including 2 home runs. Hendricks’ pitching style aligns well with Alvarez’s strengths, making this a favorable matchup for the power hitter.

Home Field Advantage:

Playing at Minute Maid Park significantly boosts Alvarez’s home run potential. He has hit 18 of his 31 home runs this season at home, where the park dimensions and his familiarity with the environment play to his advantage.

Christian Walker HR @ +425 / Wager: 1%

Recent Hot Streak:

Christian Walker is on a tear, hitting 4 home runs in his last 7 games. Over the past two weeks, he’s maintained a slugging percentage of .644, indicating he is seeing the ball well and making solid contact.

Pitcher Vulnerability:

Walker faces Mitch Keller today, a pitcher who has allowed 27 home runs this season, ranking among the top 5 in home runs allowed. Walker has a .333 batting average and a .667 slugging percentage in 12 at-bats against Keller, showcasing his ability to exploit this matchup.

Advanced Metrics Support:

Statcast data supports Walker’s power surge, showing a 45% hard-hit rate and an average launch angle of 18 degrees over his past 10 games. These metrics suggest Walker is well-positioned to hit a home run in today’s game.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles

Padres’ Winning Streak and Momentum

The San Diego Padres have been on a remarkable run, winning seven straight games on their current road trip since the All-Star break. Despite their impressive performance, the oddsmakers still seem to lack respect for the Padres, making them underdogs in this matchup. Their winning streak has been characterized by solid pitching and timely hitting, making them a formidable opponent.

Orioles’ Struggles

The Baltimore Orioles are experiencing a tough stretch, currently at 22-23 over their last 45 games. Their performance has been inconsistent, and they are on the verge of being swept this weekend. The Orioles’ starting pitcher, Albert Suarez, has struggled significantly with a 12.86 ERA across his last two starts. This presents a clear opportunity for the Padres to capitalize on his current form.

Randy Vasquez’s Strong July

Randy Vasquez has been one of the standout pitchers for the Padres this month, boasting a 2.00 ERA in July. His performance has been a key factor in the Padres’ recent success, and he will be looking to continue his excellent form against the Orioles. The Padres’ pitching staff as a whole has stepped up, providing a solid foundation for their winning streak.

Questioning the Odds

Given the Padres’ current form and the Orioles’ struggles, it’s surprising to see San Diego as a heavy-priced underdog. The Padres have shown they can perform well on the road and have the momentum going into this game. This discrepancy in the odds provides a valuable betting opportunity for those looking to back the Padres.

Bet: Padres ML / Wager: 6%

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

The Braves managed to break a six-game losing streak on Saturday, but their offensive struggles continue. Over their last seven games, they have only managed to score 22 runs, averaging just over three runs per game. This stretch includes being held to two runs or fewer in six of their last thirteen games, resulting in a 4-9 record. Injuries have undoubtedly taken their toll on the Braves, affecting their lineup’s potency.

Despite the Braves’ general success against left-handed pitchers, the Mets have shown exceptional performance when David Peterson takes the mound. The Mets have won Peterson’s last eight starts, boasting a +37 run differential in those games. This consistent performance gives confidence in backing the Mets to win outright.

Though Reynaldo Lopez has been a strong performer for the Braves, some regression might be expected. This makes the Mets’ moneyline an attractive play, particularly given the current form of both teams.

Bet: Mets ML / Wager: 5%

Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals

Struggles Against Lefties

The Cubs are 6-14 vs. lefties and face one of the better ones in MLB in Royals ace Cole Ragans. He has had a quality start in eight of his past nine.

Home Series Importance

This is a crucial game for the Royals to avoid losing a second straight home series before heading out on a road trip. The urgency and home-field advantage add to the Royals’ favor.

Bet: Royals -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

Mariners’ Dominance and White Sox’s Struggles

The Chicago White Sox are currently in a dismal run, having lost 13 consecutive games. This losing streak includes the last six starts made by Garrett Crochet, who was once highly touted but is now struggling significantly. The White Sox have been outscored 16-3 in the first two games of this weekend series against the Seattle Mariners.

Bryce Miller’s Exceptional Form

Seattle’s Bryce Miller has been outstanding recently, not allowing a single run and giving up just a few hits across his last two starts. His excellent performance on the mound has been a key factor in the Mariners’ success, and he will be looking to continue his dominant form against the White Sox.

Value in the Betting Line

Despite the evident disparities in form and performance between the two teams, the betting line has not adjusted to reflect the Mariners’ clear advantage. This presents a significant value opportunity for those looking to back Seattle. The Mariners’ superior recent performance and the White Sox’s extended losing streak make Seattle the clear favorite in this matchup.

Bet: Mariners ML / Wager: 6%

MLB: Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

Marlins’ Recent Performance

The Marlins have shown resilience recently, playing competitively against the Orioles and Brewers. However, with the trade deadline looming, Miami might be cautious with their top relievers. The departure of their best player and second-best reliever in weekend trades weakens their bullpen, making it harder to maintain leads.

Brewers’ Home Advantage

Milwaukee has been formidable at home all season, consistently performing well in crucial games. Facing an inconsistent Marlins starter, the Brewers have a significant edge. Tobias Myers, while not exceptional, has provided stability. Since Memorial Day, Milwaukee is 6-3 in his starts, with Myers going at least five innings in eight consecutive outings. The Brewers’ ability to step up when needed makes them a strong pick in this matchup.

Bet: Brewers -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals

Nationals’ Pitching Struggles

The Washington Nationals will be sending DJ Herz to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 1-4 record and a 4.95 ERA. Herz is being utilized out of necessity rather than choice, indicating the Nationals’ current struggles with their pitching rotation.

Cardinals’ Push for the Playoffs

St. Louis is making a strong push for the final wild-card spot and every win is crucial at this stage. The Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas, who has been a reliable pitcher with an 8-8 record and a 5.02 ERA. Mikolas is coming off a strong performance against the Braves, where he allowed just two runs over six innings to secure a win.

Mikolas’ Recent Form

The 35-year-old right-hander’s recent form suggests he is heading in the right direction, and his experience and reliability make him a solid choice for the Cardinals in this matchup. His ability to perform under pressure will be key in helping St. Louis secure a much-needed win.

Home Advantage

Playing at home gives the Cardinals an added advantage, and with the stakes high for their playoff ambitions, they are likely to come out strong. The Nationals’ inconsistency and pitching woes make St. Louis a favorable bet in this scenario.

Bet: Cardinals ML / Wager: 4%

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels

A’s Consistent Performance Against the

The Oakland Athletics find themselves on the brink of a four-game sweep against the Los Angeles Angels, a feat they nearly accomplished just last Sunday, thwarted only by a disastrous eighth inning of relief. This month alone, the A’s have dominated the Angels, winning nine out of ten matchups. The consistency in performance is evident as Oakland has outscored Los Angeles 57-28 in these games.

Angels’ Offensive Struggles

The Halos’ offense has been notably inconsistent, scoring in only one inning per game during their three losses in this series at Angel Stadium. These brief spurts have been insufficient to counteract the A’s robust performance.

Osvaldo Bido’s Promising Start

Oakland’s converted reliever, Osvaldo Bido, has shown promise in the rotation. In his recent start against the Astros last Tuesday, he delivered a serviceable performance, which bodes well for the A’s chances of securing another victory against the struggling Angels.

Value in the Betting Line

Given Oakland’s recent dominance over Los Angeles and the Angels’ continued offensive woes, there is significant value in backing the A’s to clinch another win and complete the sweep.

Bet: Athletics ML @ +115 / Wager: 6%

MLB: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Crucial Series for Giants’ Wild Card Hopes

The Giants are eyeing a series sweep, which is crucial for their wild card aspirations. They have dominated the Rockies in the first three games, winning each by multiple runs. This consistency in performance highlights their determination to capitalize on this series.

Home and Day Performance of Jordan Hicks

While Jordan Hicks has had his struggles, he has shown better form at home and in day games throughout 2024. This could provide the Giants with a slight edge. Additionally, with the Giants having a day off on Monday, they can afford to fully utilize their bullpen if Hicks encounters trouble. This flexibility adds to their chances of securing a decisive win.

Bet: Giants -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 4%