Consistent Winning Strategies: BrownBagBets' Long-Term Success and Today's Top MLB Picks

Another stellar night for BrownBagBets, going 6-1 with the only loss coming from a 9th inning comeback in the Pirates at Astros game. We were just one inning away from a perfect 7-0 night!

At BrownBagBets, we are committed to the long-term success of our community. We win the month, the quarter, and the year, all while providing you with the insights and strategies behind each and every pick. Our goal is to generate passive income without ever having to deposit more cash into our betting accounts. We are transparent with our followers, offering detailed reasons for each pick and adjusting betting amounts accordingly.

Today's slate is packed with 15 MLB games, and we've got our eyes on at least five of them. For those who have been following along, you can probably guess which game will be our biggest play tonight. We've hammered it before and have been consistently winning with it.

We want to take a moment to sincerely thank all our followers. Your support and trust mean the world to us. We are humbled by your dedication and are committed to continuing our journey together toward consistent, profitable sports betting.

Let’s keep the momentum going and make today another winning day!

MLB: Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers

Guardians Lineup Strength Initially, this looked like a potential trap game for Cleveland. However, with the recent addition of Lane Thomas and all regular starters in the lineup, the Guardians are fielding a strong team, which shifts the perspective back in their favor.

Pitching Edge Cleveland starter Gavin Williams has an impressive ERA of 2.38 against Detroit, despite an 0-2 record. His performance on the road has been stellar, boasting an ERA of 0.87 in two road starts this season. This pitching strength provides a significant advantage.

Tigers' Offensive Woes The Tigers are facing offensive struggles, especially with notable hitters like Mark Canha sitting out and their best hitter, Riley Greene, still on the IL. This weakens their lineup and their chances against a strong Cleveland pitching performance.

Bet: Guardians ML / Wager: 4%

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

Toronto's Turmoil The Blue Jays are in a state of flux, having recently traded their experienced lefty starter who was set to start this game. The bullpen is exhausted after a reliever was called upon in the first inning of a doubleheader on Monday. Toronto's lineup is becoming experimental, and the team seems to be in full collapse mode with potential trades involving key players like Vladdie and George Springer looming.

Orioles' Offensive Resurgence The Orioles' bats have come alive again, focusing on a linedrive approach to all fields rather than solely hunting for home runs. This balanced offensive strategy is yielding results and should continue to be effective against a struggling Jays pitching staff.

Pitching Advantage Baltimore has Corbin Burnes on the mound, providing a strong starting presence. In contrast, Toronto's Chris Bassitt has struggled in July, posting a 6.23 ERA. The uncertainty surrounding potential trades and Bassitt's poor recent performance further tilts the advantage toward the Orioles.

Bet: Orioles -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Lineup Stability This play hinges on the assumption that the Cubs retain key players like Cody Bellinger through the trade deadline. The Cubs' lineup is expected to be bolstered by the debut of All-Star 3B Isaac Paredes, enhancing their offensive potential significantly.

Pitching Dominance The Cubs have a significant edge with ace Justin Steele on the mound. Steele has excelled on the road this season, boasting a 2.39 ERA, and has been particularly effective against the Reds, posting a 1.50 ERA in 12 innings this year.

Reds' Bullpen Day Conversely, the Reds are facing a bullpen day, which could expose them to the potent Cubs lineup. The uncertainty and potential depletion of Cincinnati's pitching staff play into the Cubs' favor.

Bet: Cubs ML / Wager: 4%

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox

Consistent Hitting Streak Victor Robles has been one of the more consistent hitters for the Seattle Mariners recently, despite not getting a hit in yesterday's game. Before that, he had registered at least one hit in eight of his prior nine games. This level of consistency suggests that Robles is due to bounce back and continue his hitting streak.

Boston's Pitching Struggles The Red Sox have struggled significantly on the mound post All-Star break, boasting the worst team ERA in the league. This gives Robles an excellent opportunity to capitalize on Boston’s pitching woes and accumulate total bases.

Bet: Victor Robles over 1.5 total bases / Wager: 3%

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros

Pitching Edge After a tough loss against Paul Skenes, the Astros are in a much better position tonight with Hunter Brown on the mound. Brown has been the team's most reliable starter, leading with 12 quality starts this year. Since May 22, he has an impressive 8-2 record with a 2.10 ERA, 77 strikeouts, a .217 opponent batting average, and a 1.08 WHIP.

Favorable Matchup In contrast, the Pirates' Bailey Falter has been less effective, sporting a 4-7 record and a 4.08 ERA. This matchup is significantly more favorable for the Astros compared to the previous night, giving them a substantial advantage.

Motivated Offense The Astros' lineup will be looking to bounce back from last night's defeat. With the advantage on the mound and a motivated offense, they are well-positioned to secure a decisive victory.

Bet: Astros -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

Consistent Dominance If the oddsmakers continue to post prices on White Sox games, and the sportsbooks continue to allow bets against the Pale Hose, then we'll just keep recommending against Chicago. Losses in 15 straight are bad enough, but across the past four of those, it has gotten particularly ugly (outscored 30-11). The Royals have been beating up the Sox all season, including four straight since the All-Star break. Tuesday starter Michael Wacha got one of those for KC on July 19 when tossing seven shutout innings at the Hose.

Pitching Edge Sox rookie starter Jonathan Cannon has been struggling like the rest of his team, with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha has a 2.56 ERA in his last 11 starts and threw seven scoreless against the White Sox last time. This pitching edge heavily favors the Royals.

Run Line Dominance The run line (-1.5, -115) against the White Sox is in autoplay territory. They've played 109 games and 60 have been lost by multiple runs. In their 15-game losing streak, 11 have been lost by more than one. The Royals are now 10-1 against the Sox after the late comeback last night.

Bet: Royals -1.5 / Wager: 7%

MLB: Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Current Form The Diamondbacks have won 11 of their last 15 games, and going even further back, 17 of their last 25. They are coming off a huge ninth-inning comeback that has to be deflating to the Nationals as they continue to sell off their roster. The Nationals have lost five of seven and 19 of their last 30 games. Arizona is surging, showing heart, and playing like a team reminding us of their postseason surprise run last year.

Pitching Matchup Patrick Corbin starts for the Nationals, and he has a 5.52 ERA on the road. Washington has lost six straight road starts of his, being outscored 35-11 in those outings. The Diamondbacks feast on left-handed pitching, boasting a .274 average and the 8th-best wRC+ vs. LHPs. Meanwhile, Ryne Nelson, on the mound for Arizona, has been solid in July with a 2.97 ERA.

Run Line Strategy Even falling behind 6-0 right off the bat Monday night, I still felt pretty good about my D-Backs RL pick. The Nationals' roster sale ahead of the deadline has them spiraling, and Arizona, even losing stud Christian Walker mid-game, is playing with determination. The wild 9-8 win didn't cover for us, but we always fade Patrick Corbin in this scenario. Given the circumstances and the D-backs' form, the most likely scenario is a Diamondbacks blowout, so we're going with the run line.

Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Home Field Advantage This is the last home series of the season for the Padres against their rivals, the Dodgers, ensuring a lively and supportive crowd. San Diego remains in contention for the NL West, especially with wins in these two games, and the fans will be eager to back them up. The Padres have been playing excellent baseball since the All-Star break, all on the road, which bodes well for their return home.

Bullpen Boost The Padres could unveil their new bullpen weapon tonight in former Rays righty Jason Adam, providing a significant boost to their relief pitching. The trade deadline has passed, so there's no concern about losing any key players before the game.

Starting Pitching Matt Waldron has been consistent for San Diego, with nine quality starts in his past 11 outings. This consistency gives the Padres a solid chance to keep the game close and potentially win, especially with their current form.

Value Play Given the Padres' recent performance and the competitive nature of this series, taking them at +1.5 offers excellent value. San Diego is playing as well as anyone since the break, and being back home with a supportive crowd can only help their cause.

Bet: Padres +1.5 / Wager: 4%