Thirsty Thursday @ BrownBagBets: MLB Playoffs and NCAAF Best Bets for Today

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Under 44 / Wager: 3%

Defensive Matchup:

Atlanta will be without their top linebacker, Troy Anderson, which could impact their defensive cohesion. Historically, since 2018, the Buccaneers have shown some offensive prowess in Atlanta, going 4-1 to the over. However, in this divisional matchup, we should expect a more defensive approach, especially with both teams prioritizing time of possession.

Offensive Struggles:

The Falcons are averaging only 18.8 points per game this season, which indicates a significant struggle to find the end zone. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is still in the process of figuring out the identity of the Falcons’ offense. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay, despite injuries on defense, is still managed by a defensive-minded head coach, allowing less than 20 points per game on average.

Recent Trends:

Both teams faced opponents with limited offensive threats last week; the Buccaneers faced an Eagles team without key wide receivers, and the Falcons managed to score 26 points without any offensive touchdowns. This lack of offensive efficiency is concerning, especially when you consider that Atlanta has recorded only five offensive touchdowns in four weeks.

Red Zone Defense:

Tampa Bay’s defense has been particularly stout, allowing the longest touchdown they’ve given up this season to be only seven yards, and they’ve surrendered just one passing touchdown overall. This trend of strong red-zone defense will likely continue against a Falcons offense that struggles to make explosive plays.

Historical Context:

Additionally, consider that the last 13 NFC South primetime games have all gone under the total. Teams with closely rated matchups tend to be more cautious, opting for jabs instead of haymakers to avoid early mistakes.

NCAAF: Texas State at Troy

Pick: Texas State -13 / Wager: 2%

Texas State’s Season Overview:

Texas State has faced its fair share of challenges this season. After a narrow escape against Lamar (34-27) in their opener, they suffered tough losses to Arizona State and Sam Houston, the latter coming after they built an impressive 22-0 lead in the first quarter. Despite these setbacks, there’s reason to believe in their potential to rebound in this matchup.

Troy’s Quarterback Situation:

Troy enters this game with uncertainty at the quarterback position, as both Goose Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease are questionable for Thursday’s matchup. This situation significantly hampers their offensive stability and creates an opportunity for Texas State to exploit Troy’s vulnerabilities.

Opportunity for Texas State:

With a chance to regroup and refocus, Texas State’s coaching staff and players will be determined to turn their fortunes around against a Troy team that has not matched its performance from last season. The Bobcats will aim to capitalize on Troy’s quarterback issues and secure a convincing victory.

MLB: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Mets ML @ +105 / Wager: 4%

Pitching Matchup Favors the Mets:

Despite some concerns about the Mets’ bullpen after Phil Maton’s struggles in the last game, the pitching matchup remains favorable for New York. Jose Quintana has been exceptional, with a remarkable 0.72 ERA in September, prior to his recent outing against the Brewers where he allowed just two runs. Quintana’s consistency makes him a reliable option to keep the game competitive.

Brewers’ Offensive Struggles:

On the other side, the Brewers have shown inconsistency with their starting pitcher, Tobias Myers. His recent outings have been limited, often around four innings, which could put pressure on a bullpen that might be less effective in high-stakes situations. With Quintana’s ability to go deep into games, the Mets could capitalize on any early leads.

Mets’ Momentum:

The Mets are coming into this game with a sense of urgency, looking to bounce back after a tough loss. Their offense has the potential to capitalize on Myers’ limitations, especially if they can get to him early. With Quintana on the mound, New York is well-positioned to control the game and set the tone.