Back in Action: BrownBagBets' Expert MLB Picks for the Dog Days of Summer

We recently took a small hiatus from providing picks and wager guidance. With Copa America and Euro '24 crowning their respective champions last Sunday, we pivoted to find that all we had left in the sports world for these dog days of summer was the MLB All-Star game. Now that the All-Star game has come and gone, we look to tonight, Friday, where we have a full slate of MLB options. For the foreseeable future, baseball is all we have to play with.

We find ourselves in a challenging period, as MLB has historically been one of our weaker sports. However, despite this, we enter tonight at 105% of our July starting bankroll. During our brief break, we weren’t vacationing or taking time off. Instead, we doubled down on our efforts to better understand the MLB landscape and identify opportunities to improve our betting strategies for our BrownBagBets community.

With renewed focus and determination, we are ready to tackle the MLB slate head-on. Let’s get it going!

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Phillies ML / Wager: 5%

The Philadelphia Phillies head into Pittsburgh with Aaron Nola taking the mound. Nola has been in great form, boasting a 6-1 record with a 3.33 ERA on the road. He is currently riding a streak of five straight quality starts, which adds confidence to backing the Phillies in this matchup.

Philadelphia's Pitching Advantage

Nola's recent performances have been nothing short of impressive. His ability to control games and keep opponents' scoring low has been a significant asset for the Phillies. Nola's road ERA indicates he can handle the pressures of away games effectively, making him a reliable choice to lead Philadelphia to victory.

Pirates' Unusual Pitching Decision

Pittsburgh's decision to start veteran journeyman Martin Perez instead of a more reliable arm like Mitch Keller raises some eyebrows. Perez's 1-5 record with a 5.15 ERA does not inspire much confidence. His struggles on the mound have been evident, and several Phillies hitters have favorable splits against him, which could spell trouble for the Pirates.

Batting and Momentum

The Phillies have some hitters who perform well against Perez, providing them an edge in the batting department. Philadelphia’s lineup has been consistent, and they can capitalize on Perez's weaknesses. Moreover, the momentum from Nola’s quality starts can boost the team’s overall performance.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

Pick: Tyler Stephenson under 1.5 Hits / Wager: 6%

Player Performance Context

Tyler Stephenson is batting .245 this season, which is below average compared to other prominent hitters in the league. His position in the lineup and his playing style further reduce his chances of achieving multiple hits in this game.

Lineup Position and Plate Appearances

Stephenson typically bats fifth in the order for the Reds. Batting in this position means he is less likely to get the same number of at-bats as leadoff hitters like Steven Kwan or Luis Arraez. Players batting at the top of the order generally get more opportunities to hit, increasing their chances of multiple-hit games. In contrast, Stephenson's position in the lineup means he might only get one or two at-bats against the starting pitcher, Patrick Corbin, and will face the bullpen in subsequent at-bats.

Matchup Against Patrick Corbin

While Patrick Corbin is not the most formidable pitcher in the league, Stephenson's hitting struggles and lower contact rate make it unlikely for him to get multiple hits in this matchup. Corbin's tendency to give up hits does not necessarily translate to multiple-hit games for opposing hitters, especially for someone like Stephenson who does not have high-speed advantages to leg out infield hits.

Statistical Comparison and Betting Value

Comparing the odds with other top hitters like Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez, who are priced at -240 and -225 respectively for under 1.5 hits, Stephenson's line seems to offer good value. Given his current season average, lineup position, and matchup specifics, the likelihood of him getting two or more hits is quite low.

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Pick: Yankees ML / Wager: 5%

The New York Yankees look to continue their resurgence post-All-Star break, and they might have found their groove during the last weekend series in Baltimore. Today, they face the Tampa Bay Rays at home with their ace, Gerrit Cole, taking the mound.

Gerrit Cole's Recent Form

Gerrit Cole has been a reliable force for the Yankees, especially in his recent starts. He has delivered strong performances in two of his past three outings, showcasing his ability to dominate opposing hitters. Cole's presence on the mound gives the Yankees a significant advantage, particularly at home where he has consistently performed well.

Tampa Bay's Road Struggles with Zach Eflin

While Zach Eflin has impressive 2024 numbers against the Yankees, his road performance this season tells a different story. Eflin's 2-4 record with a 5.37 ERA on the road highlights his struggles away from Tropicana Field. This disparity in his home and away stats suggests he may find it challenging to contain the Yankees' lineup in the hostile environment of Yankee Stadium.

Yankees' Need for a Turnaround

The Yankees entered the All-Star break needing a reset, and their recent series win in Baltimore could be the catalyst for a second-half surge. With key players returning to form and the team regaining confidence, New York appears poised to make a strong push in the coming weeks. A victory over a division rival like Tampa Bay would be a significant statement.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Over 7.5 / Wager: 5%

Recent Performance and Motivation

The San Diego Padres had a tough end to the first half of the season, finishing with a 1-6 record. However, despite this slump, they remain one game over .500. This indicates that the Padres have the potential to bounce back, especially after facing strong teams like the Braves, Mariners, and Diamondbacks.

Pitching Matchup

Both starting pitchers today have struggled recently, suggesting that we could see a high-scoring game.

Tanner Bibee (Cleveland Guardians)

• Recent Form: Bibee has lost his last two starts, allowing four runs in each game.

• Vulnerability: His recent form suggests that he is prone to giving up runs, which could be exploited by the Padres' lineup.

Matt Waldron (San Diego Padres)

• Recent Form: Waldron has lost his last three starts, conceding a total of 11 runs.

• Vulnerability: With an average of over three runs allowed per game in his recent starts, Waldron is also likely to be hit hard by the Guardians' hitters.

Offensive Capabilities

Both teams have the offensive firepower to take advantage of the struggling pitchers.

San Diego Padres

• Despite their recent slump, the Padres have shown they can score runs, especially against weaker pitching.

• The Padres' lineup includes several potent hitters who can capitalize on Bibee's recent struggles.

Cleveland Guardians

• The Guardians' offense will look to exploit Waldron's recent form.

• Cleveland has shown they can put up runs, particularly when facing pitchers who are out of form.

MLB: New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Pick: Mets ML / Wager: 6%

The New York Mets entered the All-Star break on a hot streak, sitting three games above .500 and positioning themselves as serious playoff contenders. Their surge has been fueled by timely hitting and a clutch performance at the plate, especially in the past month. The momentum they’ve built makes them a formidable opponent for the struggling Miami Marlins.

The Marlins, with a dismal 33-63 record, have struggled both on the road and at home, where they hold a 18-31 mark. Despite their hopes for a brighter future, Miami's present situation remains bleak. Edward Cabrera, once heralded as a top prospect, has not lived up to expectations this season. His recent outings have been particularly troubling, including his last start where he surrendered seven runs to the Reds. Cabrera has also struggled historically against the Mets, losing his last three starts against them and giving up a considerable number of runs.

Given the Mets' current form and the Marlins' ongoing struggles, the smart play is to back the Mets to continue their winning ways. They have shown resilience and consistency, which should serve them well in this matchup.

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers

Pick: Orioles ML / Wager: 5%

The Baltimore Orioles take on the Texas Rangers in what promises to be an intriguing matchup post-All-Star break. A detailed look at the pitchers and some historical trends provide a solid case for backing the Orioles in this contest.

Corbin Burnes vs. Nathan Eovaldi: Pitching Comparison

Corbin Burnes, starting for the Orioles, has been a standout with an average exit velocity of 87.8 MPH, placing him in the 74th percentile among MLB pitchers. His hard-hit rate of 30.9% ranks him in the 93rd percentile, indicating his effectiveness in limiting hard contact.

In contrast, Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers has an average exit velocity of 89.8 MPH, putting him in the 25th percentile. His hard-hit rate is significantly higher at 43.3%, placing him in the 17th percentile. These metrics suggest that Eovaldi is more prone to giving up hard contact compared to Burnes, which could be crucial in this matchup.

Historical Trend: All-Star Game Host Performance

There is a noteworthy system that suggests playing against the host team in the All-Star game if their first game back is at home. Since 2001, every host team has played their first game at home following the break, with these teams posting a record of 7-15. More recently, since 2011, this trend has intensified, with these host teams going 3-9. This trend indicates a possible advantage for the visiting team in the first game back after the break.

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Royals -1.5 @ +100 / Wager: 7%

The Kansas City Royals look to continue their success against the struggling Chicago White Sox in this matchup. Several factors make the Royals an appealing pick to win by more than one run.

Strong Performance Against the White Sox

The Royals have had the upper hand in this matchup, sweeping the White Sox in six straight games earlier this season. This head-to-head dominance has set the tone for the Royals' season and highlighted the White Sox's ongoing struggles.

Chicago's Struggles with Chris Flexen

Chicago has not won a game in Chris Flexen's last twelve starts, a losing streak dating back to May 8. Flexen has had difficulty finding his form, contributing to the White Sox's dismal season record of 27-71.

Michael Wacha's Resurgence

Michael Wacha has been impressive since returning to the Royals' rotation in late June. In his four starts since coming back, Wacha has posted a solid 2.53 ERA, and the Royals have won three of those outings. His sharp form and the Royals' recent winning ways with him on the mound bolster their chances in this game.

MLB: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

Pick: Astros ML @ +100 / Wager: 6%

Several key factors make the Houston Astros a compelling pick in this matchup against the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle's Struggles Against Right-Handed Pitching

Seattle ranks 27th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitchers, highlighting their struggles against this type of pitching. Additionally, the Mariners have the league's highest strikeout rate by a wide margin, which further diminishes their offensive reliability against a competent right-handed pitcher like Hunter Brown.

Hunter Brown's Strong Position

The extreme park shift at T-Mobile Park should favor Hunter Brown, who can exploit the Mariners' high strikeout rate. Brown's ability to generate strikeouts could play a significant role in keeping the Mariners' offense at bay, providing a solid foundation for the Astros.

Astros' Efficiency Against Right-Handed Pitching

On the other side, the Astros are one of the best teams against right-handed pitching, ranking in the top 10 in MLB. They also have one of the lowest strikeout rates, indicating their ability to make consistent contact and generate scoring opportunities.